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Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
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Kentucky Derby Contenders
With two 100 point prep races to go these are my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, along with their points and why I like them.
#1 California Chrome - 150 points - ran a 106 on our par rating scale, which is the 2nd highest in the last 20 years. For comparison, I'll Have Another ran a 104. Like the way he pulled away in the stretch. There appears to be several speed horses headed to the Kentucky Derby, but it doesn't always workout the way it appears on paper. Plus, I think California Chrome can sit a few lengths off the lead and win. Seems to be the best headed to Kentucky. One note, horses that ran above a 100 par rating in the Santa Anita Derby have a high win percentage in the Preakness.
#2 Tapiture - 42 points - ran a 100 par rating in the Southwest and again in the Rebel while finishing a troubled 2nd. Like the win in the Southwest and I am looking forward to seeing him run in the Arkansas Derby.
#3 Hoppertunity - 95 points - Even though California Chrome beat him by 5 lengths he still ran slightly above par in the Santa Anita Derby. He was game when he won the Rebel stakes, beating a troubled Tapiture who is a decent horse. He ran above par in that race as well. What I really like about him is he has a good running style for the Kentucky Derby and seems to be one of those horse who keep plodding along and hit the board. With him being beat 5 lengths by California Chrome he may be a little forgotten about, but don't count this guy out.
#4 Samraat - 100 points - Has been game in the stretch in both of his last two races and I like that in a horse. Will definitely be included in my exotics and would move up if California Chrome didn't make the field for some reason.
#5 Constitution - 100 points - A great win running above par in the Florida Derby, though he did get an inside trip. Still he is lightly raced and should be improving at the right time. People quote, "No horse has won the Kentucky Derby that didn't run as a 2 yr old since Apollo." But, I don't put a lot of stock in that. First, unless the sample size was even with horses that ran as 2 year olds and ones that didn't make their first start until 3, then the results will be skewed. And obviously, there have been a lot more horses in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby that ran as a 2 year old. And, we don't have to look too far back to see a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby, not having run at the age of 2 - Bodemeister 2012.
#6 Wild Cat Red - 90 points - This guy just tries hard every single race and I love horses like that. For that reason I had to include him. He's also had two above par efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Looking forward to getting these last two 100 point preps under our belts and then hear what the clockers have to say.
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