2014 Kentucky Derby Field by Post Position

With a few more days of morning gallops left, here is a run down of 2014 Kentucky Derby field by post position and my thoughts on each.  Some are on the bubble to include in my exotics, so I'll be waiting to hear what the clockers have to say about Thursday mornings gallops before I narrow down my final selections.

In my notes you'll see me mention Par Rating and Strike System.  Both of those, plus 20 years worth of Kentucky Derby Statistics are included in my Kentucky Derby Stats Guide Package.  For more information or to purchase the guide package go to www.bigdaystats.com

#1 Vicar's in Trouble (30-1) - Good wire to wire win last out. Pedigree suggests he may be able to handle the distance. No horse that ran their last prep in the Louisiana Derby has won the Kentucky Derby in the last 20 years. It will force Rosie's hand to send him early to try to establish position. But, that might not be all bad. Maybe he can hang on in the exotics, but he is probably one I'll have to toss.

#2 - Harry's Holiday (50-1) - A quick look at his dirt form suggests others are much better. Would need a huge step forward. Not heard anything really good from the morning reports. Toss.

#3 Uncle Sigh (30-1) - Was game in the stretch of the Gotham and Withers, and he had some trip issues in the Wood Memorial. Still his par #'s suggest he may not be as good as some others in here. Just "ok" reports from the clockers. Toss.

#4 Danza (10-1) - Good closing effort in the Arkansas Derby and he beat some proven horses. Has looked great training in the mornings, with lots of energy. However, just 2 horses in the last 20 years have won the Kentucky Derby with just one race in a Kentucky Derby qualifying points race. With that said and even with 3 strikes on my system, he's a live contender. He'll be in my top 5 for sure.  

#5 California Chrome (5/2) - Has been dominant in his last two starts. Horses that ran above par in their last start have won the Kentucky Derby 65% of the time in the last 20 years. Will need to break sharp from this post. A step slow could see him swallowed up at the break, just like Union Rags in 2012. His race to lose.

#6 Samraat (15-1) -  Always mixes it up at the end, but not sure he is good enough to get the best of California Chrome. Clockers say he looks fine, but nothing spectacular. Exotics use.

#7 We Miss Artie (50-1) -  His two derby preps that were on dirt were total bombs. He hasn't run near par in any of his races. Recent work was disappointing, he looks like a toss.

#8 General a Rod (15-1) - A bottom end exotics candidate that has done little wrong, except win a Derby prep. I like horse that win.  Have heard he is not training like he did when he was in Florida. Tough call here, but exotics use, maybe.  But, only if he gallops well the next few days.

#9 Vinceremos (30-1) - He obviously didn't like the surface in the Blue Grass Stakes. But if you throw that recent start out, he doesn't look bad. Clockers have said he has good energy.  On exotics bubble.

#10 Wildcat Red (15-1) -  He has 0 strikes on my system.  This guy has done nothing wrong in his last 2 starts, other than to get edged by Constitution in the Florida Derby. Can't knock him on paper, but the clockers have said he is not wowing them in the morning and may not be taking to the Churchill surface. Another tough call to include or exclude in the exotics. Certainly his Florida Derby form would put him in the mix.

#11 Hoppertunity (6-1) - One of the horses that I give a good shot to win, esp. if something goes wrong for California Chrome. His style should allow him to sit just off the pace and he gobbles up ground in the stretch. I think he drew decently well, top contender for sure.

#12 Dance With Fate (20-1) - Good win in the Blue Grass Stakes, but that was over the synthetic surface at Keeneland. To consider his dirt form, we only have his two dirt preps as a 2 year old to work with. Though he closed well last out, he may be a cut below the top contenders. With that said, he may plod his way into the exotics. And, I've heard he looked pretty good Wednesday morning at Churchill.

#13 Chitu (20-1) - This is one I'll really struggle with. I'm not worried about the foot issue that has caused him to wear a special shoe since last fall. After all, he won the Sunland Derby and was a close second in the Robert B. Lewis. I think this horse will fly under the radar and could realistically hit the board at a good price, if he doesn't fade too far. His one strike is a Basic one based on where he ran his last prep, it has nothing to do with Ability or Current Form. Lots to like on paper, but the distance is a serious question.  Speed horses that don't fade out of the exotics can really blow up a bet.  On the bubble for exotics use.

#14 Medal Count (20-1) - Will have run 3 races within 4 weeks when Kentucky Derby weekend arrives. I have a lot of respect for Dale Romans as a trainer, but this does seem like a lot. Also, his dirt form has been just average when you compare it to others on this list. However, the clockers have posted some encouraging notes. Hearing this I am moving him up from toss, to exotics candidate. 

#15 Tapiture (15-1) -  I really liked this horse in the Southwest, but his last out in the Arkansas Derby was flat. Possibly it was a step back or since he already had enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby maybe he wasn't cranked all the way up. He's run some good races in the past and I think this is a great post draw for him. His last workout in the rain/slop wasn't too bad. Definite exotics horse for me.

#16 Intense Holiday (12-1) - Draw a line thru his last start, not sure what happened when he drifted and hit the rail turning for home. This colt has run some good races this year and he gets a top rider. From what I have heard, he has had good energy, but is still relaxed in the mornings. He'll likely crack my top 5.

#17 Commanding Curve (50-1) - I've heard he doesn't look that great in the mornings. Plus all of his par ratings have been well below 100.  A 5 strike horse that I think is a complete toss. 

#18 Candy Boy (20-1) - Was well beaten in the Santa Anita Derby and I expected him to finish close to Hoppertunity. Still, he did get the best of Chitu in the Robert B. Lewis with an good performance on the par rating scale. He has worked really well and give a good impression. I'll be giving him a hard look over the next few days for exotics consideration.

#19 Ride On Curlin (15-1) - Was in the Superfecta in all 5 of his derby preps and in the Trifecta in 4 out of 5 preps. But, I like horses that win and he hasn't gotten the job done. I've heard reports that he looks good in the mornings. I'll be looking at him as an exotics horse. 

#20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - Strong showing when running par in the Wood Memorial. He closed well and his par rating suggest he took a big step forward in that race. The post is a concern, but you never know what will happen when the gates open. If you liked him before I wouldn't let the post position stand in my way. I'll be looking at him as an exotics candidate.

#21 Pablo De Monte (50-1) - ALSO ELIGIBLE - He will not draw in unless one of the top 20 scratch.  Set the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes before fading to third. His best races have come on a synthetic surface. On paper he appears to be a toss.