Updated for scratches 12:09pm.
My Race Rating System-
I
always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In
some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my
selected
winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider
betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 4 - 1-1/8 miles Rampart Stakes G3 - Play
A - #1 Ciao Bella (8/5) - her last out beyer puts her over the top of these, will have to go from post 1
B - #3 Successful Song (9/5) - seems to be in good form, recent outs puts her in the mix here
C - #5 Authenticity (6-1) - should be laying pretty close to pace, close enough to catch a piece of the exotics
D - #4 Go Unbridled (3-1)
E - #6 One Last Dance (15)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3
Race Notes-
Top 2 are likely the best in here. Getting the #5 into the exotics would help the value.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1,3 / 1,3 / 4,5,6 = $6
$1 - 1,3 / 1,3 / 4,5 = $4
$1 - 1,3 / 4,5 / 1,3 = 4
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles TURF MSW - Action
A - #2 Forever Thing (5/2) - just missed last out while have a slow start, hoping he can repeat effort
B - #8 Balthazar (3-1) - another one who closed well last out, likely
C - #7 Urban Talk (5-1) - like the work pattern
D - #9 Luck Seeker (8-1) - beyers put him in the mix, but hasn't gotten the job done yet
E - #12 Mighty Quinn (12-1) - barn does decent with firsters and works suggest maybe ready
Multi-Race Horses-
2,8,7
Race Notes-
Wide open MSW, but I do like horses who have started before and #2 and #8 have proven they can close.
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles Gulfstream Park Oaks G2 - Play
A - #5 Dreaming of Julia (2-1) - needs to move fwd a little, but hoping she can turn the tables this time
B - #3 Live Lively (3-1) - both 90+ beyers have come while on the lead and there is some other speed in here
C - #6 Emollient (3-1) - deserving to move fwd, but will need big jump to catch top 2, working well
D - #4 Kimberly Jean (10-1) - moving fwd, would help trifecta value
E - #1 Cue the Moon (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3
Race Notes-
Most likely the winner will come from the top 2 horses, but #6 rates an upset chance.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 5,3 / 5,3 / 6,4,1 = $6
$1 - 5,3 / 6 / 5,3 = $2
$0.50 - 5,3 / 6 / 4,1 = $2
Race 9 - 1-1/2 miles TURF Orchid G3 - Action
A - #7 Aigue Marine (3-1) - should handle this group, but getting a class test over last out
B - #5 Starformer (5/2) - other speed in here may hurt, but has plenty of class, definite contender
C - #8 Angegreen (10-1) - I like this move by Motion, horse maybe sitting on a big one and pace will help
D - #1 Regalio Mia (5-1) - should move fwd, pace will help
E - #6 Irish Mission (6-1) - fits with this group and should get a good trip, exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,8,1
Race Notes-
Race is a little more wide open than I would like when making a play, though I think the top 2 are the most likely...but it is a turf race.
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-3/16 miles Skip Away G3 - Action
A - #9 Cigar Street (5/2) - big last out beyer was earned while on lead, but he stands to wire this field too
B - #8 Take Charge Indy (3-1) - should move fwd off the Donn and that makes him a definite contender
C - #3 Golden Ticket (5-1) - 2 for 2 at Gp and 1 for 1 at distance, nice beyers make him a possibility
D - #10 Pants on Fire (5-1) - runs well at Gp, possibility
E - #7 O'Prado Again (8-1) - another one who could mix it up here
Multi-Race Horses-
9,8,3,10
Race Notes-
Wide open amongst top selections.
Suggested Plays:
Race 11 - 1 mile TURF Appleton G3 - Action
A - #3 Za Approval (7/2) - the race sets up for him, post should help too
B - #4 Joes Blazing Aaron (5-1) - could handle these, but there is a lot of other speed in here
C - #7 Silver Max (6-1) - has been working great, loves the turf (7-12), should be overlooked at the windows some
D - #9 Beau Choix (6-1) - beyers put him in the mix and speed in here should help
E - #5 Cool Blue Red Hot (12-1) - would offer some value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
3,4,7,9
Race Notes-
I think this one is going to be a calvary charge to the wire, speed horses trying to hold on and closers coming hard. Should be interesting to watch.
Suggested Plays:
Race 12 - 1-1/8 miles Florida Derby G2 - Action
A - #3 Itsmyluckyday (2-1) - looks the best on paper and should get a favorable trip
B - #1 Shanghai Bobby (5/2) - lots to prove, but Gp fits his style
C - #2 Pick of the Litter (6-1) - moving fwd and offers some value
D - #6 Orb (3-1) - will need some pace and not sure he'll get it
E - #7 Indy's Illusion (20-1) - this maybe the best exotics overlay on the card, moved fwd last out, another one puts him in the mix here
Multi-Race Horses-
3,1,2
Race Notes-
Hoping the race will be formful, but most of the other preps have not been.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,1 / 3,1 = $4
$1 - 3,1 / 2,6,7 = $6
$0.50 - 3,1 / 3,1,2,6,7 / 3,1,2,6,7 = $12
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Friday, March 29, 2013
Fair Grounds 3-30-2013 - Races 3-11
Updated for Scratches 12:21pm.
Card Notes-
I feel like this card could end up being a little chalky. There were several races where I just couldn't find a good reason to go against the favorite.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 3,4
$1 - 4 / 10 = $1
$1 - 4,1 / 10,8 = $4
$1 - 4,1 / 6 = $2
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 11,10 / 8,6 / 5,7 = $4
$0.50 - 11,10,1 / 8 / 5,7,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 11,10,1 / 8,6,9 / 5 = $4.50
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 8,6 / 5 / 8 = $1
$0.50 - 8,6 / 5,7 / 8,7 = $4
$0.50 - 8,6,9 / 5 / 8,7,2 = $4.50
$0.50 - 8,6,8 / 5,7,4 / 8 = $4.50
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8,7 / 3,10 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 8 / 3,10,7,8,4 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 8,7,2 / 3,10,7,8 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8 / 3,10,7,8 = $4
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,7 / 3,10 / 5,1 = $4
$0.50 - 8 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $6
$0.50 - 7,2 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1 = $8
$0.50 - 8 / 4 / 5,1 = $1
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8,7 / 3,10 / 5,1 = $8
$0.50 - 5 / 8 / 3,10,7,8,4 / 5,1 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 8,7,2 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,4 / 8 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $12
Race 3 - 1-1/16 mile Costa Rising Stakes - Play
A - #4 Heavy on Themister (8/5) - should dominate this field, but am worried about the speed drawn inside of him
B - #1 Populist Politics (5/2) - should be there to pick up pieces if #4 & #3 get caught in a duel, runs well at Fg
C - #6 Get in Da House (3-1) - another one who seems just a cut below the winner, 20 of 23 in the money
D - #5 Watch My Smoke (12-1) - some value if can get 3rd in Trifecta
E - #2 Lee's Spirit (12-1) - by default
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1
Race Notes-
Heavy On Themister may very well run these off their feet. #1 and #6 are most likely if a speed duel ensues between the #4 and #3.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4 / 1,6 / 1,6 = $4
$0.50 - 4 / 1,6 / 5,2 = $2
Race 4 - 6f OC - Action
A - #10 Sister City (3-1) - really nice class drop, has run well at Fg and distance, will need to work a good trip
B - #8 Mohijo (7/2) - has posted some decent beyers, does run well at Fg, distance leaves some questions
C - #Tujuacagofast (9/2) - dropping from stakes company, but first out since July 2012, last work good
D - #7 Debbie Ann (8-1) - a huge improvement last out when not dueling, screams value
E - #1 Crypto Good (8-1) - likes Fg and posts some decent beyers, exotics use
Multi-Race Horses-
10,8,6
Race Notes-
I wavered on whether this should be an Action or Play bet. It just looks like a really good spot for the #10 other than the post.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,8 / 10,8 = $4
$1 - 10,8 / 6,7,1 = $6
Race 5 - 6f OC - Action
A - #11 Herbal Prospector (5/2) - good beyers, has good gate speed, will need to secure a good position
B - #10 Googleado (8-1) - maybe overlooked, working well, this guy may well run them off their feet, value
C - #1 Alaco Castle (5-1) - could move fwd off last effort, 9 of 10 in money at distance, 10 of 11 in money at Fg
D - #4 Easy Jazz (4-1) - may not be as good lately, but still 50% winner at Fg and 5 of 9 at distance
E - #7 Royal Production (8-1) - class dropper who could mix it up here
Multi-Race Horses-
11,10,1
Race Notes-
Race seems a little wide open once you get past the winner. Decided to just go with 3 horses in the multi's.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 1 mile 70 yds Cresent City Oaks - Play
A - #8 Mucho Mans Gold (9/2) - hoping she can wire the field
B - #6 Sittin At the Bar (9/5) - dropping in class from dull effort, may not get the pace setup, 2 for 2 at Fg
C - #9 Tensas Harbor (8-1) - stretching out a bit, but does run well at Fg, exotics
D - #1 Hometown Gossip (10-1) - would bolster exotics
E - #4 Fantacious (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,6
Race Notes-
I thought there are several in here who could be hurt by the lack of pace. If #8 doesn't wire field, the hopefully the #3 will be waiting in the wings to take over. #6 will be over bet on the class drop, but seems very beatable here, especially given the pace scenario.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8,6 / 8,6,9 / 8,6,9 = $4.00
$1 - 8,6 / 8,6,9 / 1,4 = $4.00
$0.50 - 8,6 / 1 / 8,6,9 = $2.00
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles Fair Ground Oaks G2 - Play
A - #5 Flashy Gray (6/5) - will very likely wire this field, others will all need a step fwd to tackle her
B - #7 Unlimited Budget (9/5) - was game last out, can sit or go, maybe second best here though
C - #4 So Many Ways (6-1) - working good and you can cross out the last out, but still may not be good enough
D - #3 Ante Up Annie (15-1) - I expect her to scratch here, but would offer some Trifecta value
E - #6 Blue Violet (12-1) - could bolster trifecta if she can catch the 3rd leg
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5
B - 7,4 (to use on a saver ticket)
Race Notes-
I wouldn't try to go against the obvious favorite #5. Instead, try to use her as a key or in the mutlirace wagers. Though a saver ticket using the 7,4 wouldn't be a bad idea only if cost allows.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 5 / 7,4 / 7,4 = $2
$1 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4 = $4
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 3,6 = $4
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles New Orleans Handicap G2 - Play
A - #8 Graydar (2-1) - could wire these again, 2-1 would be value here, seems much the best
B - #7 Mark Valeski (9/2) - should sit a good trip, last out was better than beyer suggest, upset chance
C - #2 Bourbon Courage (7/2) - dropping in class from the Donn, left himself too much to do there, but was game
D - #4 Majestic Harbor (20-1) - may sit close enough to pace to grab a piece of exotics
E - #6 Macho Macho (8-1) - working nicely and would offer some value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 8
B - 7,2 (to use on a saver ticket)
Race Notes-
I left out Flat Out from the top 5. He seems to be a horse who gets better in the fall, so I'm hoping that holds true here and we can get some other value in the trifecta. But, I may include him on a saver trifecta ticket if cost allows. Graydar seems much the best to wire this field with Mark Valeski an upset chance.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8 / 7,2 / 7,2 = $2
$1 - 8 / 7,2,4 / 7,2,4 =$6
$1 - 7,2 / 8 / 7,2,4 = $4
$0.50 - 8 / 7,2,4 / 6 = $1.50
Race 9 - 1-1/8 miles Lousiana Derby G2 - Action
A - #3 Revolutionary (3-1) - though he may not have beaten much, I loved the way he was game to get to the wire last out
B - #10 Titletown Five (8-1) - should be on or near the lead, could definitely get a piece, stretching out so questions need to be answered
C - #7 Departing (8-1) - seems to be improving and is working well, 2 for 2 at Fg, shot
D - #8 Code West (9/2) - not crazy about Risen Star horses, but seems to be working well and have to give Baffert respect in Derby preps
E - #2 Palace Malice (5-1) - fits here with a move fwd, but is another Risen Star horse
Value Add-Ons-
#4 Golden Soul (20-1) - this horse took a big step fwd last out and even a small step would put him in the mix, esp for exotics. Lots of value.
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 3,10,7,8
B - 4 (value)
Race Notes-
I'm trying to sneak by here in the multi's with my top 4, while grabbing some value if the #10 or #7 get up. Also, I thought the #4 horse Golden Soul offers a lot of value in the exotics and another big jump fwd would put him in the win mix.
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Mervin H. Muniz Jr Stakes - Play
A - #5 Optimizer (5/2) - found a home on the turf, pace should suit, has not won at G2 level...yet
B - #1 Amira's Prince (3-1) - has done nothing but win since coming from IRE, distance too short?
C - #2 Doubles Partner (5-1) - has run well against some really good horses, the class is there, but tough company here too
D - #8 String King (8-1) - on a good run of being in the money, definite exotics use
E - #9 Bim Bam (10-1) - may have been compromised last out by lack of pace, exotics use for value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,1
B - 2 (saver)
Race Notes-
The top 3 should handle these. I really like Optimizer has a turf horse, but he'll have to prove it again here. Amira's Prince stands a huge win chance, but this horse usually runs longer, so the shorter distance is a question. Doubles Partner has run with some of the best Turf horses in the US, still he might not be able to best the top 2 here.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5,1 / 5,1,2 = $8
$1 - 5,1 / 8,9 = $4
$0.50 - 5,1 / 5,1,2 / 5,1,2,8,9 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/16 miles Cresent City Derby - Action
A - #5 Skinny (3-1) - may sit a good trip, likes distance and Fg
B - #8 Hero Force (5/2) - a definite contender, but will need to prove distance
C - #4 Don't Be Mad (8-1) - another contender who will have to prove the distance
D - #6 Hopeful Notion (7/2) - could definitely sit the right trip here, possible winner
E - #7 Unbridled's Score (10-1) - the horse appears to fit, but the trainer is 4% with 430 starts, no confidence
Multi-Race Horses-
5,8,4,6
Race Notes-
There seem to be several in here with win opportunities. Using in multirace wagers only.
Suggested Plays:
Card Notes-
I feel like this card could end up being a little chalky. There were several races where I just couldn't find a good reason to go against the favorite.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 3,4
$1 - 4 / 10 = $1
$1 - 4,1 / 10,8 = $4
$1 - 4,1 / 6 = $2
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 11,10 / 8,6 / 5,7 = $4
$0.50 - 11,10,1 / 8 / 5,7,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 11,10,1 / 8,6,9 / 5 = $4.50
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 8,6 / 5 / 8 = $1
$0.50 - 8,6 / 5,7 / 8,7 = $4
$0.50 - 8,6,9 / 5 / 8,7,2 = $4.50
$0.50 - 8,6,8 / 5,7,4 / 8 = $4.50
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8,7 / 3,10 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 8 / 3,10,7,8,4 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 8,7,2 / 3,10,7,8 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8 / 3,10,7,8 = $4
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,7 / 3,10 / 5,1 = $4
$0.50 - 8 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $6
$0.50 - 7,2 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1 = $8
$0.50 - 8 / 4 / 5,1 = $1
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8,7 / 3,10 / 5,1 = $8
$0.50 - 5 / 8 / 3,10,7,8,4 / 5,1 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 8,7,2 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,4 / 8 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $12
Race 3 - 1-1/16 mile Costa Rising Stakes - Play
A - #4 Heavy on Themister (8/5) - should dominate this field, but am worried about the speed drawn inside of him
B - #1 Populist Politics (5/2) - should be there to pick up pieces if #4 & #3 get caught in a duel, runs well at Fg
C - #6 Get in Da House (3-1) - another one who seems just a cut below the winner, 20 of 23 in the money
D - #5 Watch My Smoke (12-1) - some value if can get 3rd in Trifecta
E - #2 Lee's Spirit (12-1) - by default
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1
Race Notes-
Heavy On Themister may very well run these off their feet. #1 and #6 are most likely if a speed duel ensues between the #4 and #3.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4 / 1,6 / 1,6 = $4
$0.50 - 4 / 1,6 / 5,2 = $2
Race 4 - 6f OC - Action
A - #10 Sister City (3-1) - really nice class drop, has run well at Fg and distance, will need to work a good trip
B - #8 Mohijo (7/2) - has posted some decent beyers, does run well at Fg, distance leaves some questions
C - #Tujuacagofast (9/2) - dropping from stakes company, but first out since July 2012, last work good
D - #7 Debbie Ann (8-1) - a huge improvement last out when not dueling, screams value
E - #1 Crypto Good (8-1) - likes Fg and posts some decent beyers, exotics use
Multi-Race Horses-
10,8,6
Race Notes-
I wavered on whether this should be an Action or Play bet. It just looks like a really good spot for the #10 other than the post.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,8 / 10,8 = $4
$1 - 10,8 / 6,7,1 = $6
Race 5 - 6f OC - Action
A - #11 Herbal Prospector (5/2) - good beyers, has good gate speed, will need to secure a good position
B - #10 Googleado (8-1) - maybe overlooked, working well, this guy may well run them off their feet, value
C - #1 Alaco Castle (5-1) - could move fwd off last effort, 9 of 10 in money at distance, 10 of 11 in money at Fg
D - #4 Easy Jazz (4-1) - may not be as good lately, but still 50% winner at Fg and 5 of 9 at distance
E - #7 Royal Production (8-1) - class dropper who could mix it up here
Multi-Race Horses-
11,10,1
Race Notes-
Race seems a little wide open once you get past the winner. Decided to just go with 3 horses in the multi's.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 1 mile 70 yds Cresent City Oaks - Play
A - #8 Mucho Mans Gold (9/2) - hoping she can wire the field
B - #6 Sittin At the Bar (9/5) - dropping in class from dull effort, may not get the pace setup, 2 for 2 at Fg
C - #9 Tensas Harbor (8-1) - stretching out a bit, but does run well at Fg, exotics
D - #1 Hometown Gossip (10-1) - would bolster exotics
E - #4 Fantacious (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,6
Race Notes-
I thought there are several in here who could be hurt by the lack of pace. If #8 doesn't wire field, the hopefully the #3 will be waiting in the wings to take over. #6 will be over bet on the class drop, but seems very beatable here, especially given the pace scenario.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8,6 / 8,6,9 / 8,6,9 = $4.00
$1 - 8,6 / 8,6,9 / 1,4 = $4.00
$0.50 - 8,6 / 1 / 8,6,9 = $2.00
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles Fair Ground Oaks G2 - Play
A - #5 Flashy Gray (6/5) - will very likely wire this field, others will all need a step fwd to tackle her
B - #7 Unlimited Budget (9/5) - was game last out, can sit or go, maybe second best here though
C - #4 So Many Ways (6-1) - working good and you can cross out the last out, but still may not be good enough
D - #3 Ante Up Annie (15-1) - I expect her to scratch here, but would offer some Trifecta value
E - #6 Blue Violet (12-1) - could bolster trifecta if she can catch the 3rd leg
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5
B - 7,4 (to use on a saver ticket)
Race Notes-
I wouldn't try to go against the obvious favorite #5. Instead, try to use her as a key or in the mutlirace wagers. Though a saver ticket using the 7,4 wouldn't be a bad idea only if cost allows.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 5 / 7,4 / 7,4 = $2
$1 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4 = $4
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 3,6 = $4
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles New Orleans Handicap G2 - Play
A - #8 Graydar (2-1) - could wire these again, 2-1 would be value here, seems much the best
B - #7 Mark Valeski (9/2) - should sit a good trip, last out was better than beyer suggest, upset chance
C - #2 Bourbon Courage (7/2) - dropping in class from the Donn, left himself too much to do there, but was game
D - #4 Majestic Harbor (20-1) - may sit close enough to pace to grab a piece of exotics
E - #6 Macho Macho (8-1) - working nicely and would offer some value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 8
B - 7,2 (to use on a saver ticket)
Race Notes-
I left out Flat Out from the top 5. He seems to be a horse who gets better in the fall, so I'm hoping that holds true here and we can get some other value in the trifecta. But, I may include him on a saver trifecta ticket if cost allows. Graydar seems much the best to wire this field with Mark Valeski an upset chance.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8 / 7,2 / 7,2 = $2
$1 - 8 / 7,2,4 / 7,2,4 =$6
$1 - 7,2 / 8 / 7,2,4 = $4
$0.50 - 8 / 7,2,4 / 6 = $1.50
Race 9 - 1-1/8 miles Lousiana Derby G2 - Action
A - #3 Revolutionary (3-1) - though he may not have beaten much, I loved the way he was game to get to the wire last out
B - #10 Titletown Five (8-1) - should be on or near the lead, could definitely get a piece, stretching out so questions need to be answered
C - #7 Departing (8-1) - seems to be improving and is working well, 2 for 2 at Fg, shot
D - #8 Code West (9/2) - not crazy about Risen Star horses, but seems to be working well and have to give Baffert respect in Derby preps
E - #2 Palace Malice (5-1) - fits here with a move fwd, but is another Risen Star horse
Value Add-Ons-
#4 Golden Soul (20-1) - this horse took a big step fwd last out and even a small step would put him in the mix, esp for exotics. Lots of value.
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 3,10,7,8
B - 4 (value)
Race Notes-
I'm trying to sneak by here in the multi's with my top 4, while grabbing some value if the #10 or #7 get up. Also, I thought the #4 horse Golden Soul offers a lot of value in the exotics and another big jump fwd would put him in the win mix.
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Mervin H. Muniz Jr Stakes - Play
A - #5 Optimizer (5/2) - found a home on the turf, pace should suit, has not won at G2 level...yet
B - #1 Amira's Prince (3-1) - has done nothing but win since coming from IRE, distance too short?
C - #2 Doubles Partner (5-1) - has run well against some really good horses, the class is there, but tough company here too
D - #8 String King (8-1) - on a good run of being in the money, definite exotics use
E - #9 Bim Bam (10-1) - may have been compromised last out by lack of pace, exotics use for value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,1
B - 2 (saver)
Race Notes-
The top 3 should handle these. I really like Optimizer has a turf horse, but he'll have to prove it again here. Amira's Prince stands a huge win chance, but this horse usually runs longer, so the shorter distance is a question. Doubles Partner has run with some of the best Turf horses in the US, still he might not be able to best the top 2 here.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5,1 / 5,1,2 = $8
$1 - 5,1 / 8,9 = $4
$0.50 - 5,1 / 5,1,2 / 5,1,2,8,9 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/16 miles Cresent City Derby - Action
A - #5 Skinny (3-1) - may sit a good trip, likes distance and Fg
B - #8 Hero Force (5/2) - a definite contender, but will need to prove distance
C - #4 Don't Be Mad (8-1) - another contender who will have to prove the distance
D - #6 Hopeful Notion (7/2) - could definitely sit the right trip here, possible winner
E - #7 Unbridled's Score (10-1) - the horse appears to fit, but the trainer is 4% with 430 starts, no confidence
Multi-Race Horses-
5,8,4,6
Race Notes-
There seem to be several in here with win opportunities. Using in multirace wagers only.
Suggested Plays:
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Oaklawn Park 3-16-2013 - Races 8-11
Updated for scratches 12:20pm.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 7,6 / 10,4 / 7,5 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 10,4,9,2 / 7,5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 7,6,1 / 10,4 / 7,5,6 = $9
Pick 4 - Races 6,9,10,11
$0.50 - 4,5 / 7,6 / 10,4 / 7,5 = $8
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 7 / 10,9,4,2 / 7,5,6 = $18
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 7,6,1 / 10,9,4,2 / 7 = $18
Race 8 - 1-16 miles MSW - Action
A - #4 Only in America (2-1) - beyers make him top contender
B - #5 Run Hide (9/2)
C - #10 Sammy's Bandit (8-1)
D - #3 City Connect (20-1)
E - #7 Mr. Blackthorn (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,10
Race Notes-
Past #4 race seems a little wide open.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Azeri Stakes G3 - Play
A - #7 My Miss Aurelia (6/5) - March 4th work says shes ready, should best these, likes this distance
B - #6 Don't Tell Sophia (3/2) - seems to be the main danger to My Miss Aurelia, likes Op and distance
C - #1 Tiz Miz Sue (5-1) - has run well 2nd off layoff, moving forward, a speed duel would help
D - #3 She's All In (12-1)
E - #4 Songs and Sonnets (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,6,1
Race Notes-
The #7 and #6 appear to be the main threats, but I feel the #1 is needed as a saver on at least one Pick 3 ticket in case something goes wrong. Not a great betting race here unless you feel like you can get My Miss Aurelia or Don't Tell Sophia out of the Trifecta. However, in these short fields crazy things happen. I'd play some kind of ticket, just so you can cash a ticket and feel good!
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,6 / 7,6 /1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 7,6 / 1,3,4 / 7,6 = $3
$0.50 - 7,6 / 7,6 / 1,3 = $2
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles Rebel Stakes G2 - Action
A - #10 Super Ninety Nine (3/2) - hard to go against Baffert at Op and should best these, post is the issue
B - #4 Delhomme (7/2) - 1st out 2013, but works suggest ready, but there is already a lot of speed in here
C - #9 Oxbow (4-1) - going to give another shot after Risen Star, watching but good enough for exotics
D - #2 Carve (15-1) - I love this type of horse, moving forward and could very well be overlooked
E - #6 Den's Legacy (8-1) - can close, and should get a good pace setup
Multi-Race Horses-
10,9,4,2
Race Notes-
Super Ninety Nine seems much the best, but he's facing a lot of speed in here. Also, I thought this was a big move for Carve, which I like.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,4 / 10,4,9 = $8
$1 - 10,9 / 2,6 = $4
Race 11 - 6f Optional Claiming - Play
A - #7 Gentlemen's Bet (5/2) - hoping he can wire the field
B - #5 Que Posse (3-1) - class dropping and has good beyers, should be in the mix
C - #6 Okie Tuff (20-1) - love the value on a horse that is 50% at this distance, has a real shot
D - #10 Right to Vote (3-1) - may get caught wide, moved forward 2nd out in 2012 look for the same here
E - #2 Tiz Tee Time (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,6
Race Notes-
I really feel like the #7 and #5 are the best, but the #6 offers some real value, esp if he can get into the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,5 / 7,5 = $4
$1 - 7,5 / 6,10,2 = $6
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 7,6 / 10,4 / 7,5 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 10,4,9,2 / 7,5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 7,6,1 / 10,4 / 7,5,6 = $9
Pick 4 - Races 6,9,10,11
$0.50 - 4,5 / 7,6 / 10,4 / 7,5 = $8
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 7 / 10,9,4,2 / 7,5,6 = $18
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 7,6,1 / 10,9,4,2 / 7 = $18
Race 8 - 1-16 miles MSW - Action
A - #4 Only in America (2-1) - beyers make him top contender
B - #5 Run Hide (9/2)
C - #10 Sammy's Bandit (8-1)
D - #3 City Connect (20-1)
E - #7 Mr. Blackthorn (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,10
Race Notes-
Past #4 race seems a little wide open.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Azeri Stakes G3 - Play
A - #7 My Miss Aurelia (6/5) - March 4th work says shes ready, should best these, likes this distance
B - #6 Don't Tell Sophia (3/2) - seems to be the main danger to My Miss Aurelia, likes Op and distance
C - #1 Tiz Miz Sue (5-1) - has run well 2nd off layoff, moving forward, a speed duel would help
D - #3 She's All In (12-1)
E - #4 Songs and Sonnets (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,6,1
Race Notes-
The #7 and #6 appear to be the main threats, but I feel the #1 is needed as a saver on at least one Pick 3 ticket in case something goes wrong. Not a great betting race here unless you feel like you can get My Miss Aurelia or Don't Tell Sophia out of the Trifecta. However, in these short fields crazy things happen. I'd play some kind of ticket, just so you can cash a ticket and feel good!
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,6 / 7,6 /1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 7,6 / 1,3,4 / 7,6 = $3
$0.50 - 7,6 / 7,6 / 1,3 = $2
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles Rebel Stakes G2 - Action
A - #10 Super Ninety Nine (3/2) - hard to go against Baffert at Op and should best these, post is the issue
B - #4 Delhomme (7/2) - 1st out 2013, but works suggest ready, but there is already a lot of speed in here
C - #9 Oxbow (4-1) - going to give another shot after Risen Star, watching but good enough for exotics
D - #2 Carve (15-1) - I love this type of horse, moving forward and could very well be overlooked
E - #6 Den's Legacy (8-1) - can close, and should get a good pace setup
Multi-Race Horses-
10,9,4,2
Race Notes-
Super Ninety Nine seems much the best, but he's facing a lot of speed in here. Also, I thought this was a big move for Carve, which I like.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,4 / 10,4,9 = $8
$1 - 10,9 / 2,6 = $4
Race 11 - 6f Optional Claiming - Play
A - #7 Gentlemen's Bet (5/2) - hoping he can wire the field
B - #5 Que Posse (3-1) - class dropping and has good beyers, should be in the mix
C - #6 Okie Tuff (20-1) - love the value on a horse that is 50% at this distance, has a real shot
D - #10 Right to Vote (3-1) - may get caught wide, moved forward 2nd out in 2012 look for the same here
E - #2 Tiz Tee Time (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,6
Race Notes-
I really feel like the #7 and #5 are the best, but the #6 offers some real value, esp if he can get into the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,5 / 7,5 = $4
$1 - 7,5 / 6,10,2 = $6
Friday, March 15, 2013
Fair Grounds 3-16-2013 - Races 6,7,8
Updated for scratches 11:59am.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 1,2 / 3,6 / 7,2 = $4
$0.50 - 1,2,6 / 3 / 7,2,5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 1,2,6 / 3,6,1 / 7,2 = $8
$0.50 - 3,5 / 3,6 / 7,2 = $4
Race 6 - 5-1/2f Turf Colonel Power Stakes - Action
A - #6 Icon Ike (4-1) - plenty of speed in here to setup for this stretch runner, likes Fg
B - #2 Sum of the Parts (5/2) - works suggest ready, but other speed will hurt, will be trying to last
C - #1 Chamberlain Bridge (7/2) - old timer, loves Fg and this distance, last out suggest good form
D - #3 China (6-1) - can sit just off pace, works suggest he maybe sitting on a big one
E - #5 Comisky's Humor (6-1) - moving forward, but facing a much tougher bunch here
Multi-Race Horses-
1,2,6
Race Notes-
Seems wide open amongst top 4.
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1 mile 70 yards Optional Claiming - Play
A - #3 Tater Downs (8/5) - class drop, moving forward on 3rd out in 2013, runs well at distance, style should be right
B - #6 Shave and Pave (6-1) - will probably be gunning for lead, not a lot of speed in here
C - #4 Fleurdefortyfour (8-1) - the other main speed who will try for lead, 1st out 2013
D - #1 Flashy Sunrise (9/5) - good horse, but worried off pace style will be compromised, by pace
E - #5 Starter (4-1) - may plod along for piece of exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
3,6,1
Race Notes-
Using the #1 in multirace because I decided a 9/5 horse is not going to beat me in the Pick 3. If the 4 and 6 go after the lead the #3 should be sitting right to take over. The next question becomes how far will the 4 and 6 fade. Hoping I can get the #1 out of or on the bottom of the trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6,4,1 / 3,6,4,1,5 = $9
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6,4 / 3,6,4,1 = $4
$0.50 - 1 / 3,6,4 / 3,6,4 = $3
Race 8 - 5-1/2f Turf Happy Ticket Stakes - Action
A - #7 Going to Kukaro (6-1) - 1st out in 2013, hoping speed will carry in stretch
B - #2 Storm's Promise (6-1) - runs well at distance, trnr 28% at turf sprints
C - #5 Same Cross (5/2) - interesting move to turf by Larry Jones, must respect
D - #6 Cat Lore (6-1) - may sit a good trip, will be gunning for lead turning for home
E - #4 Extravaganza (5-1) - seems to need lead and doesn't figure to get it
Multi-Race Horses-
7,2,5,6
Race Notes-
Speed usually does well in these short turf sprints, but there are a few horses in here that can show speed. If so, #6 stands a good chance to take over from dueling horses.
Suggested Plays:
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 1,2 / 3,6 / 7,2 = $4
$0.50 - 1,2,6 / 3 / 7,2,5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 1,2,6 / 3,6,1 / 7,2 = $8
$0.50 - 3,5 / 3,6 / 7,2 = $4
Race 6 - 5-1/2f Turf Colonel Power Stakes - Action
A - #6 Icon Ike (4-1) - plenty of speed in here to setup for this stretch runner, likes Fg
B - #2 Sum of the Parts (5/2) - works suggest ready, but other speed will hurt, will be trying to last
C - #1 Chamberlain Bridge (7/2) - old timer, loves Fg and this distance, last out suggest good form
D - #3 China (6-1) - can sit just off pace, works suggest he maybe sitting on a big one
E - #5 Comisky's Humor (6-1) - moving forward, but facing a much tougher bunch here
Multi-Race Horses-
1,2,6
Race Notes-
Seems wide open amongst top 4.
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1 mile 70 yards Optional Claiming - Play
A - #3 Tater Downs (8/5) - class drop, moving forward on 3rd out in 2013, runs well at distance, style should be right
B - #6 Shave and Pave (6-1) - will probably be gunning for lead, not a lot of speed in here
C - #4 Fleurdefortyfour (8-1) - the other main speed who will try for lead, 1st out 2013
D - #1 Flashy Sunrise (9/5) - good horse, but worried off pace style will be compromised, by pace
E - #5 Starter (4-1) - may plod along for piece of exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
3,6,1
Race Notes-
Using the #1 in multirace because I decided a 9/5 horse is not going to beat me in the Pick 3. If the 4 and 6 go after the lead the #3 should be sitting right to take over. The next question becomes how far will the 4 and 6 fade. Hoping I can get the #1 out of or on the bottom of the trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6,4,1 / 3,6,4,1,5 = $9
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6,4 / 3,6,4,1 = $4
$0.50 - 1 / 3,6,4 / 3,6,4 = $3
Race 8 - 5-1/2f Turf Happy Ticket Stakes - Action
A - #7 Going to Kukaro (6-1) - 1st out in 2013, hoping speed will carry in stretch
B - #2 Storm's Promise (6-1) - runs well at distance, trnr 28% at turf sprints
C - #5 Same Cross (5/2) - interesting move to turf by Larry Jones, must respect
D - #6 Cat Lore (6-1) - may sit a good trip, will be gunning for lead turning for home
E - #4 Extravaganza (5-1) - seems to need lead and doesn't figure to get it
Multi-Race Horses-
7,2,5,6
Race Notes-
Speed usually does well in these short turf sprints, but there are a few horses in here that can show speed. If so, #6 stands a good chance to take over from dueling horses.
Suggested Plays:
Laurel Park 3-16-2013 - Races 7,8,9
Updated for scratches 11:53am.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,3 / 6,2 = $4
$0.50 - 4 / 2,3,5 / 6,2,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5,1 / 2 / 6,2,4,7 = $6
Race 7 - 1-1/8 miles Claiming - Play
A - #4 Worthy Wager (3-1) - seems to be the only speed in race, hoping can wire field
B - #5 My Man Dan (5/2) - should sit right trip for stalker style, trnr 30% on 1st claim
C - #1 Hurricane Creek (7/2) - slight class drop within same level, style will not help with lack of pace
D - #8 Changing Funds (8-1) - another one who fits here, but maybe compromised by a lack of pace
E - #6 Silent Shot (15-1) - deep exotics use
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,1
Race Notes-
I'm hoping Worthy Wager can steal away on an easy lead. If not, My Man Dan then he maybe the one who is ready to take over. Hurricane Creek definitely fits here, but his off pace style my be compromised by a lack of pace.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 4,5 / 4,5 = $4
$1 - 4,5 / 1,8 = $4
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles Harrison E. Johnson Stakes - Play
A - #2 Concealed Identity (7/2) - with all the speed in the race I feel it sets up for him the best, in good form
B - #3 Koh I Noor (9/5) - speed, 4 for 4 at Lrl, stretching out, but gets top jock, will need to prove distance
C - #5 Javerre (4-1) - another speed, stretching out from 7f, another one who will need to prove distance
D - #4 Norman Asbjornson (4-1) - moved him ahead of Eighttofasttocatch duel to the seemingly speed duel
E - #1 Eighttofasttocatch (9/2) - the old guy in the race will attempt to 3 peat, he likes to be on the lead and 2 other speed horses could compromise his style. Have always like this horse, but up against it here, exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses-
2,3,5
Race Notes-
I'm looking for a speed duel that would allow for Concealed Identity to sit just off the pace and take over turning for home.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 2,3 / 2,3,5 / 2,3,5 = $2
$0.50 - 2,3 / 2,3,5 / 2,3,4,5,1 = $6
$0.50 - 2,3 / 4,1 / 2,3,5 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 2,3 / 2,3,4,1 = $3
Race 9 - 7f Maiden - Weak
A - #2 Nashly Love (3-1) - has had some excuses in recent starts
B - #6 Pure Anticipation (7/5) - maybe based on beyers
C - #4 Snowflake Kara (6-1) - showed a change in style last out, another maybe
D - #7 Tale of the Dragon (6-1) - slight drop, possible
E - #5 All Biz (15-1) - another maybe, but others seem more likely
Multi-Race Horses-
2,6,4,7
Race Notes-
What a horrible race. Any of the 8 horses could win. You've got a bunch of horses who love to lose. Using 4 of 8 horses in the Pick 3 so at least I have a 50% chance in this race.
Suggested Plays:
None.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,3 / 6,2 = $4
$0.50 - 4 / 2,3,5 / 6,2,4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5,1 / 2 / 6,2,4,7 = $6
Race 7 - 1-1/8 miles Claiming - Play
A - #4 Worthy Wager (3-1) - seems to be the only speed in race, hoping can wire field
B - #5 My Man Dan (5/2) - should sit right trip for stalker style, trnr 30% on 1st claim
C - #1 Hurricane Creek (7/2) - slight class drop within same level, style will not help with lack of pace
D - #8 Changing Funds (8-1) - another one who fits here, but maybe compromised by a lack of pace
E - #6 Silent Shot (15-1) - deep exotics use
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,1
Race Notes-
I'm hoping Worthy Wager can steal away on an easy lead. If not, My Man Dan then he maybe the one who is ready to take over. Hurricane Creek definitely fits here, but his off pace style my be compromised by a lack of pace.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 4,5 / 4,5 = $4
$1 - 4,5 / 1,8 = $4
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles Harrison E. Johnson Stakes - Play
A - #2 Concealed Identity (7/2) - with all the speed in the race I feel it sets up for him the best, in good form
B - #3 Koh I Noor (9/5) - speed, 4 for 4 at Lrl, stretching out, but gets top jock, will need to prove distance
C - #5 Javerre (4-1) - another speed, stretching out from 7f, another one who will need to prove distance
D - #4 Norman Asbjornson (4-1) - moved him ahead of Eighttofasttocatch duel to the seemingly speed duel
E - #1 Eighttofasttocatch (9/2) - the old guy in the race will attempt to 3 peat, he likes to be on the lead and 2 other speed horses could compromise his style. Have always like this horse, but up against it here, exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses-
2,3,5
Race Notes-
I'm looking for a speed duel that would allow for Concealed Identity to sit just off the pace and take over turning for home.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 2,3 / 2,3,5 / 2,3,5 = $2
$0.50 - 2,3 / 2,3,5 / 2,3,4,5,1 = $6
$0.50 - 2,3 / 4,1 / 2,3,5 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 2,3 / 2,3,4,1 = $3
Race 9 - 7f Maiden - Weak
A - #2 Nashly Love (3-1) - has had some excuses in recent starts
B - #6 Pure Anticipation (7/5) - maybe based on beyers
C - #4 Snowflake Kara (6-1) - showed a change in style last out, another maybe
D - #7 Tale of the Dragon (6-1) - slight drop, possible
E - #5 All Biz (15-1) - another maybe, but others seem more likely
Multi-Race Horses-
2,6,4,7
Race Notes-
What a horrible race. Any of the 8 horses could win. You've got a bunch of horses who love to lose. Using 4 of 8 horses in the Pick 3 so at least I have a 50% chance in this race.
Suggested Plays:
None.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Laurel Park 3-15-2013 - Full Card
Laurel Park 3-15-2013
Updated for Scratches 11:50am.
Card Notes-
I'm not crazy about this card. None of the Pick 3's really lined up well. I wish Laurel rolled them a little more throughout the card. The Daily Double play in races 1 & 2 is likely one of the best plays are the card. I've listed two Pick 3 tickets, they are a little more pricey than I like to play, but they do offer some value. Though I'm not sure if I am actually going to play them, we'll see who scratches first and I'll update Friday morning. Also, there are a few decent Trifecta bets throughout the card where I give the option to hit multiple times, esp. with the fields being so short. Enjoy!
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.
Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 1,2
$1 - 2,5 / 5 = $2
$1 - 2,5 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 2,5,7 / 5,7 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 5,2 / 7,4 / 1,3 = $4
$0.50 - 5,2 / 7,4 / 1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2,1,3 / 7 / 1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2,1,3 / 7,4,3 / 1 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
Gives coverage to the #9 and #7 in the 5th race.
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,3 / 7,5 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 1,3,4,9,7 / 7,5,6 = $7.50
$0.50 - 3,4 / 1,3,4 / 7,5,6 = $9
Race 1 - 6f Maiden - Action
A - #2 Lady Lark (5-1) - Smith can have them ready to fire first time out. Taking a shot here against others.
B - #5 Perfect Balance (6/5) - showed change of form in last out, class dropping, but not a cinch
C - #7 Pay the Lady (7-1) - class drop, good beyers numbers, possible win candidate
D - #3 Finally Free (5-1) - don't think can win, but exotics chance
E - #1 Vivaco (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,5,7
Race Notes-
In Maiden races where it seems like it is a race of perpetual losers, I like to a first time starter. And, Hamilton Smith hits are 21% with firsters.
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #5 Sasta go Lucky (7/5) - Aqu shipper, nice class drop, 4 of 11 at distance, lowest level of career
B - #7 Ms Diller (8/5) - Gp shipper, can show speed, lone dirt start was not good, but was a while back
C - #4 Hatta (10-1) - slight drop in class, is 1 for 1 at distance, may sit right trip for exotics, value
D - #3 Red Hot Jazz (6-1) - not sure about last out, 34% at distance, dropping from open company, exotics
E - #1 In Dad's Wallet (12-1) - dropping from open company, style my hurt from post 1, exotics, value
Multi-Race Horses-
5,7
Race Notes-
The race is likely to go to the 5 or 7. Those horses shipping in from classier tracks are in the money a larger percentage of the time. But the 7 didn't run well in her only dirt start, but it was on the Aqu inner track, so I'm will to forgive that one. There may actually be some value in the Trifecta, esp. if the 5 and 7 don't run first and second.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta - gives you the ability to hit up to 3 times if your top selections are correct or almost correct
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7 / 4,3,1 = $3
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4 = $2
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4,3,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7 / 4,3,1 / 5,4,7 = $5
Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles Claiming - Action
A - #5 Shanfield (5/2) - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 33% at distance, may sit good trip, but a very loose favorite
B - #2 Sweet N Nutty (7/2) - wins at this level, class drop, could very well take this
C - #1 Social Statement (3-1) - always in money at distance, up in class, but a definite contender
D - #3 Lindyhop (3-1) - another contender who may get the right trip
E - #6 Vasilea (6-1) - up in class, but somethings to like for exotics use
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1,3
Race Notes-
Race seems a wide open, esp. among my top 4. Feel like I need to take them all in the exotics. Possibly a good exacta play with their being so many options, but I'll probably lay out of this one.
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 1 mile Starter Allowance - Play
A - #7 St John's Gospel (9/5) - drops from winning run at open claiming that was above Alw condition, 45% at Lrl, 2 or 3 at distance, deserving favorite
B - #4 Boom de Ya Da (9/2) - has won at this level, style and post should fit, beyers line up with others
C - #3 No Inflation (5-1) - post some beyers that could win this, but hasn't won at this level, contender
D - #2 Conflicting Report (6-1) - seems a cut below for win candidate, but definite exotics use
E - #1 Siegfried (4-1) - 10 of 14 in money at Lrl, a definite exotics change, will be closing late
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,3
Race Notes-
The #7 is very likely here, still there are a few others who could contest for win candidate. Will lean on 7 in plays, but with some backups. Deciding to let #3 beat me in intrarace bets, but will be using in multirace bets.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta - gives you ability to hit multiple times and places more weight on the #7 winning
$1 - 7 / 4,3 / 4,3,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3 = $2
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 3,2,1 / 7,4,3 = $5
Race 5 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #1 She's Off the Hook (5/2) - ships in from Prx, has shown a recent change in running style, loose favorite
B - #3 Respect the Flag (3-1) - has beat better, Vasquez 21% first claim
C - #4 No More Fives (20-1) - has beat better, horse wins, 50% win at distance, screams exotic value
D - #9 Set to Smoke (12-1) - dropping in class, but from Ct doesn't help my confidence, exotics value
E - #7 Oxford Lass (9/2) - 6 of 7 in money at distance, good beyers, blinkers should help
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,4
Race Notes-
Race seems a little wide open for intrarace plays, but 20-1 on the #3 may be irresistible to see if I can hookup in Exacta. Also, I may go a little deeper here in the multirace bets depending on who scratches.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #7 Unsighted (5/2) - that 70 beyer jumps out, but that was earned on the lead, I'd like a lot more if she wasn't shipping from Ct, but she did mop up there, class drop, but can throw a clunker here and there, beatable.
B - #5 Secret Score (8-1) - Prx shipping coming from starter allowance conditions, should get good trip
C - #6 Southside Molly (15-1) - off for a while with little works to show, but top jock suggest exotics use
D - #2 Grand Lely Drive (7/2) - speed, but shipping from Ct, though did win there, possible
E - #1 Go Money Go (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,6
Race Notes-
Lots of options in here. There maybe some value in the Exacta if your selections are right, but this maybe another I'll try to get through in multirace bets.
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 6f Optional Claiming - Play
A - #7 Regal Revenge (9/5) - beyer numbers top rest and suggest good form, hard to deny if runs best
B - #3 Pass You Bye Bye (5/2) - drew off in N1X company while 3 wide, 4 of 5 in money at Lrl
C - #8 My Charming Clyde (5-1) - 1st Claim for Ness with Russell riding has an ML of 5-1. Wow!
D - #2 Warrior of the roses (6-1) - trainer can fire them fresh off layoff, speed should help, exotics
E - #1 Mystical Terp (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3,8
Race Notes-
#7 seems much the best, but Ness of the claim is dangerous and the #3 offers somethings to like. Value may come in trifecta by hoping to catch a longer price in one of the legs.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8 / 7,3 = $2 - saver exacta
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,8 / 7,3,8 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,8 / 7,3,8,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 8,2,1 / 7,3,8 = $5
Race 8 - 6f Optional Claiming - Action
A - #1 Dance to Bristol (6/5) - moving forward, class drop, will have to work out a trip, deserving favorite
B - #3 Enchante (7/2) - does fire fresh, ships in from Aqu, drop some in class
C - #6 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - 5 or 7 in money at Laurel, 6 of 9 at distance, not sure this race will setup for style
D - #2 Donnatale (8-1) - likely candidate to wire field, but just seems a cut below, hoping others can run down
E - #5 Dixie Jackpot (15-1) - 4 or 7 at distance, class drop, speed may hold into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,6
Race Notes-
If Dance to Bristol runs back or moves forward he should win this race with ease, however, any regression makes him beatable. That is why I used two other horses in the multi's. Basing a small trifecta play on Dance to Bristol being the best in here. Prices will be too short in here to make a play with the race scratching down to 4 horses.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - Claiming - Action
A - #2 Singing My Way (4-1) - may very well wire this field with lead
B - #7 Rock N Heart (3-1) - good beyers here, 22% with 1st time Trnr, stands to get a good trip
C - #6 Tennis Racket (7/2) - trouble last out, gets top jock, win potential
D - #8 One French Kiss (8-1) - exotics
E - #4 Empedrado (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,7,6
Race Notes-
If Singing My Way doesn't wire field, the race gets a little wide open from there, however, I feel with good trips #7 & #6 would be best.
Suggested Plays:
Updated for Scratches 11:50am.
Card Notes-
I'm not crazy about this card. None of the Pick 3's really lined up well. I wish Laurel rolled them a little more throughout the card. The Daily Double play in races 1 & 2 is likely one of the best plays are the card. I've listed two Pick 3 tickets, they are a little more pricey than I like to play, but they do offer some value. Though I'm not sure if I am actually going to play them, we'll see who scratches first and I'll update Friday morning. Also, there are a few decent Trifecta bets throughout the card where I give the option to hit multiple times, esp. with the fields being so short. Enjoy!
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.
Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 1,2
$1 - 2,5 / 5 = $2
$1 - 2,5 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 2,5,7 / 5,7 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 5,2 / 7,4 / 1,3 = $4
$0.50 - 5,2 / 7,4 / 1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2,1,3 / 7 / 1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2,1,3 / 7,4,3 / 1 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
Gives coverage to the #9 and #7 in the 5th race.
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,3 / 7,5 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 1,3,4,9,7 / 7,5,6 = $7.50
$0.50 - 3,4 / 1,3,4 / 7,5,6 = $9
Race 1 - 6f Maiden - Action
A - #2 Lady Lark (5-1) - Smith can have them ready to fire first time out. Taking a shot here against others.
B - #5 Perfect Balance (6/5) - showed change of form in last out, class dropping, but not a cinch
C - #7 Pay the Lady (7-1) - class drop, good beyers numbers, possible win candidate
D - #3 Finally Free (5-1) - don't think can win, but exotics chance
E - #1 Vivaco (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,5,7
Race Notes-
In Maiden races where it seems like it is a race of perpetual losers, I like to a first time starter. And, Hamilton Smith hits are 21% with firsters.
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #5 Sasta go Lucky (7/5) - Aqu shipper, nice class drop, 4 of 11 at distance, lowest level of career
B - #7 Ms Diller (8/5) - Gp shipper, can show speed, lone dirt start was not good, but was a while back
C - #4 Hatta (10-1) - slight drop in class, is 1 for 1 at distance, may sit right trip for exotics, value
D - #3 Red Hot Jazz (6-1) - not sure about last out, 34% at distance, dropping from open company, exotics
E - #1 In Dad's Wallet (12-1) - dropping from open company, style my hurt from post 1, exotics, value
Multi-Race Horses-
5,7
Race Notes-
The race is likely to go to the 5 or 7. Those horses shipping in from classier tracks are in the money a larger percentage of the time. But the 7 didn't run well in her only dirt start, but it was on the Aqu inner track, so I'm will to forgive that one. There may actually be some value in the Trifecta, esp. if the 5 and 7 don't run first and second.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta - gives you the ability to hit up to 3 times if your top selections are correct or almost correct
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7 / 4,3,1 = $3
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4 = $2
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4,3,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7 / 4,3,1 / 5,4,7 = $5
Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles Claiming - Action
A - #5 Shanfield (5/2) - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 33% at distance, may sit good trip, but a very loose favorite
B - #2 Sweet N Nutty (7/2) - wins at this level, class drop, could very well take this
C - #1 Social Statement (3-1) - always in money at distance, up in class, but a definite contender
D - #3 Lindyhop (3-1) - another contender who may get the right trip
E - #6 Vasilea (6-1) - up in class, but somethings to like for exotics use
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1,3
Race Notes-
Race seems a wide open, esp. among my top 4. Feel like I need to take them all in the exotics. Possibly a good exacta play with their being so many options, but I'll probably lay out of this one.
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 1 mile Starter Allowance - Play
A - #7 St John's Gospel (9/5) - drops from winning run at open claiming that was above Alw condition, 45% at Lrl, 2 or 3 at distance, deserving favorite
B - #4 Boom de Ya Da (9/2) - has won at this level, style and post should fit, beyers line up with others
C - #3 No Inflation (5-1) - post some beyers that could win this, but hasn't won at this level, contender
D - #2 Conflicting Report (6-1) - seems a cut below for win candidate, but definite exotics use
E - #1 Siegfried (4-1) - 10 of 14 in money at Lrl, a definite exotics change, will be closing late
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,3
Race Notes-
The #7 is very likely here, still there are a few others who could contest for win candidate. Will lean on 7 in plays, but with some backups. Deciding to let #3 beat me in intrarace bets, but will be using in multirace bets.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta - gives you ability to hit multiple times and places more weight on the #7 winning
$1 - 7 / 4,3 / 4,3,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3 = $2
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 3,2,1 / 7,4,3 = $5
Race 5 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #1 She's Off the Hook (5/2) - ships in from Prx, has shown a recent change in running style, loose favorite
B - #3 Respect the Flag (3-1) - has beat better, Vasquez 21% first claim
C - #4 No More Fives (20-1) - has beat better, horse wins, 50% win at distance, screams exotic value
D - #9 Set to Smoke (12-1) - dropping in class, but from Ct doesn't help my confidence, exotics value
E - #7 Oxford Lass (9/2) - 6 of 7 in money at distance, good beyers, blinkers should help
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,4
Race Notes-
Race seems a little wide open for intrarace plays, but 20-1 on the #3 may be irresistible to see if I can hookup in Exacta. Also, I may go a little deeper here in the multirace bets depending on who scratches.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #7 Unsighted (5/2) - that 70 beyer jumps out, but that was earned on the lead, I'd like a lot more if she wasn't shipping from Ct, but she did mop up there, class drop, but can throw a clunker here and there, beatable.
B - #5 Secret Score (8-1) - Prx shipping coming from starter allowance conditions, should get good trip
C - #6 Southside Molly (15-1) - off for a while with little works to show, but top jock suggest exotics use
D - #2 Grand Lely Drive (7/2) - speed, but shipping from Ct, though did win there, possible
E - #1 Go Money Go (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,6
Race Notes-
Lots of options in here. There maybe some value in the Exacta if your selections are right, but this maybe another I'll try to get through in multirace bets.
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 6f Optional Claiming - Play
A - #7 Regal Revenge (9/5) - beyer numbers top rest and suggest good form, hard to deny if runs best
B - #3 Pass You Bye Bye (5/2) - drew off in N1X company while 3 wide, 4 of 5 in money at Lrl
C - #8 My Charming Clyde (5-1) - 1st Claim for Ness with Russell riding has an ML of 5-1. Wow!
D - #2 Warrior of the roses (6-1) - trainer can fire them fresh off layoff, speed should help, exotics
E - #1 Mystical Terp (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3,8
Race Notes-
#7 seems much the best, but Ness of the claim is dangerous and the #3 offers somethings to like. Value may come in trifecta by hoping to catch a longer price in one of the legs.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8 / 7,3 = $2 - saver exacta
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,8 / 7,3,8 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,8 / 7,3,8,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 8,2,1 / 7,3,8 = $5
Race 8 - 6f Optional Claiming - Action
A - #1 Dance to Bristol (6/5) - moving forward, class drop, will have to work out a trip, deserving favorite
B - #3 Enchante (7/2) - does fire fresh, ships in from Aqu, drop some in class
C - #6 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - 5 or 7 in money at Laurel, 6 of 9 at distance, not sure this race will setup for style
D - #2 Donnatale (8-1) - likely candidate to wire field, but just seems a cut below, hoping others can run down
E - #5 Dixie Jackpot (15-1) - 4 or 7 at distance, class drop, speed may hold into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,6
Race Notes-
If Dance to Bristol runs back or moves forward he should win this race with ease, however, any regression makes him beatable. That is why I used two other horses in the multi's. Basing a small trifecta play on Dance to Bristol being the best in here. Prices will be too short in here to make a play with the race scratching down to 4 horses.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - Claiming - Action
A - #2 Singing My Way (4-1) - may very well wire this field with lead
B - #7 Rock N Heart (3-1) - good beyers here, 22% with 1st time Trnr, stands to get a good trip
C - #6 Tennis Racket (7/2) - trouble last out, gets top jock, win potential
D - #8 One French Kiss (8-1) - exotics
E - #4 Empedrado (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,7,6
Race Notes-
If Singing My Way doesn't wire field, the race gets a little wide open from there, however, I feel with good trips #7 & #6 would be best.
Suggested Plays:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)