Oaklawn Park 3-16-2013 - Races 8-11

Updated for scratches 12:20pm.
 
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet.  Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single.  Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets

Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 7,6 / 10,4 / 7,5 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 10,4,9,2 / 7,5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 7,6,1 / 10,4 / 7,5,6 = $9

Pick 4 - Races 6,9,10,11
$0.50 - 4,5 / 7,6 / 10,4 / 7,5 = $8
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 7 / 10,9,4,2 / 7,5,6 = $18
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 7,6,1 / 10,9,4,2 / 7 = $18   



Race 8 - 1-16 miles MSW - Action
A - #4 Only in America (2-1) - beyers make him top contender
B - #5 Run Hide (9/2)
C - #10 Sammy's Bandit (8-1)
D - #3 City Connect (20-1)
E - #7 Mr. Blackthorn (5-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,10

Race Notes-
Past #4 race seems a little wide open.

Suggested Plays:



Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Azeri Stakes G3 - Play
A - #7 My Miss Aurelia (6/5) - March 4th work says shes ready, should best these, likes this distance
B - #6 Don't Tell Sophia (3/2) - seems to be the main danger to My Miss Aurelia, likes Op and distance
C - #1 Tiz Miz Sue (5-1) - has run well 2nd off layoff, moving forward, a speed duel would help
D - #3 She's All In (12-1)
E - #4 Songs and Sonnets (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
7,6,1

Race Notes-
The #7 and #6 appear to be the main threats, but I feel the #1 is needed as a saver on at least one Pick 3 ticket in case something goes wrong.  Not a great betting race here unless you feel like you can get My Miss Aurelia or Don't Tell Sophia out of the Trifecta.  However, in these short fields crazy things happen.  I'd play some kind of ticket, just so you can cash a ticket and feel good!

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,6 / 7,6 /1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 7,6 / 1,3,4 / 7,6 = $3
$0.50 - 7,6 / 7,6 / 1,3 = $2 


Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles Rebel Stakes G2 - Action
A - #10 Super Ninety Nine (3/2) - hard to go against Baffert at Op and should best these, post is the issue
B - #4 Delhomme (7/2) - 1st out 2013, but works suggest ready, but there is already a lot of speed in here
C - #9 Oxbow (4-1) - going to give another shot after Risen Star, watching but good enough for exotics
D - #2 Carve (15-1) - I love this type of horse, moving forward and could very well be overlooked
E - #6 Den's Legacy (8-1) - can close, and should get a good pace setup


Multi-Race Horses-
10,9,4,2

Race Notes-
Super Ninety Nine seems much the best, but he's facing a lot of speed in here.  Also, I thought this was a big move for Carve, which I like.

Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,4 / 10,4,9 = $8
$1 - 10,9 / 2,6 = $4



Race 11 - 6f Optional Claiming - Play
A - #7 Gentlemen's Bet (5/2) - hoping he can wire the field
B - #5 Que Posse (3-1) - class dropping and has good beyers, should be in the mix
C - #6 Okie Tuff (20-1) - love the value on a horse that is 50% at this distance, has a real shot
D - #10 Right to Vote (3-1) - may get caught wide, moved forward 2nd out in 2012 look for the same here
E - #2 Tiz Tee Time (6-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,6

Race Notes-
I really feel like the #7 and #5 are the best, but the #6 offers some real value, esp if he can get into the exotics.

Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,5 / 7,5 = $4
$1 - 7,5 / 6,10,2 = $6