Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 3 - BC Juvenile Fillies Grade 1 - Play
A - #10 Songbird (7/5) -She's the class of the field with two Grade 1 wins and the highest last
race beyer. However, that high beyer was earned while racing on an
uncontested lead and those horses rarely repeat that when they are
challenged. She does appear to be the major speed in the race, so I
think it is a real possibility that that she could find herself on the
front end all alone. And, it doesn't hurt that she has Mike Smith to
guide her. It's really hard to go against this scenerio. Win selection,
definite exotics use.
B - #9 Rachel's Valentina (7/2) - She's obviously proven she inherited some of her parents ability by
winning the Grade 1 Spinaway last out. Hopefully she'll be able to work
out a good stalking trip on the outside. Win contender, definite
exotics use.
C - #7 Nickname (4-1) - She's a Grade 1 winner and ran a solid par rating while winning the
Frizette over the slop at Belmont. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #2 Tap to It (8-1) - Closed the gap in the stretch last out against Rachel's Valentina, will
need a step forward to win, but a definite horse to use in the exotics.
E - #8 Dothraki Queen (10-1) - She'll need some pace to be a win factor, but I definitely think she can hit the exotics at a good price.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 10
B - 9,7,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,9 / 10,9,7,2,8 = $8
$1 - 7,2,8,10,9 / 10,9 = $8
Race 4 - BC Turf Sprint Grade 1 - Action+
A - #3 Undrafted (4-1) - Is a Eurpean Group 1 winner and lands Dettori. I like the way he closes and there is plenty of speed in this race. He'll need to workout a trip. Win selection.
B - #7 Green Mask (15-1) - Another horse that can close and being on the outside he should get a good trip. He's never won at this distance, but I think he stacks up well here with all the speed in the race. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #5 Lady Shipman (5/2) - Is a speed horse in a race with a lot of speed, but she ran some pretty good speed figures in 2015. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #14 Mongolian Saturday (15-1) - Fits here, but worried he'll get hung wide. Exotics value.
E - #8 Something Extra (12-1) - She'll needs to take a step forward, but she always seems to be in the Trifecta. Exotics value.
Multi-Race Horses:
A- 3,7
B- 5,14,8
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,7,5 / 3,7,5,14,8,2 = $15
Race 5 - BC Filly & Mare Sprint Grade 1 - Action
A - #2 Dame Dorothy (10-1) - Won the Grade 1 Humana Distaff over Judy the Beauty, but she has lost
her last two race. She's 4 for 5 at this distance and seems to be
moving in the right direction. This race is wide open with a lot of
speed horses and I think she has a real possibility to pick up the
pieces in the stretch. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #11 Judy the Beauty (6-1) - Won this race last year and was a hard fought second to Groupie Doll two
years ago. She loves Keeneland as she is 4 for 5 over this racetrack.
She has a lot to like as a multiple Grade 1 winner, but she'll need her
best her to win and she hasn't showed that lately. Win chance,
definite exotics use.
C - #14 Cavorting (3-1) - She's way outside, but she does like to come from off the pace so maybe
she can tuck in near the back of the field and make a good sustained
run. She's a multiple Grade 1/Grade 2 winner. Win chance in a wide
open race, definite exotics use.
D - #4 La Verdad (6-1) - Another speed horse, but she is a multiple Grade 2 winner and she has
put up some good speed figures. She'll need to get out of the gate
quick to establish an early lead, but she could take them a long way if
she gets to the lead. Definite exotics use.
E - #8 Stonetastic (8-1) - Yet another speed horse. She sports the best last race speed figure,
but that was on an uncontested lead against much lesser competition.
She'll be up front, but the question is how long can she hang around in
the stretch. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 2,11
B - 14,4,8
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,11,4 / 2,11,4,4,8 = $12
$5 - WP #2 = $10
Race 6 - BC Filly & Mare Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #8 Dacita (8-1) - I really like the price on a South American shipper that is 7 for 10 on the turf and several of those are Group 1 races. She'll need to stretch out successfully, but I think she offers the best value. Win selection, exotics value.
B - #3 Legatissimo (8/5) - A very deserving favorite with 2 Group 1 wins in Europe. Good win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #2 Sentiero Italia (15-1) - Offers good value for a horse that is 4 for 7 on the turf and a multiple Grade 2 winner on the turf. Give her a slight win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #11 Stephanie's Kitten (10-1) - Closes well, but she is really hit or miss. Exotics use.
E - #12 Secret Gesture (8-1) - Euro with a Grade 1 win, scared to leave her off my tickets. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 8,3
B - 3,2,11
Suggest Plays:
$0.50 - 8 / 3,2,11,12,1,9 / 3,2,11,12,1,9 = $15
$0.50 - 3 / 8,2,11,12,1,9 / 8,2,11,12,1,9 = $15
Race 7 - BC Sprint Grade 1 - Action
A - #10 Salutos Amigos (12-1) - I think he sits a perfect trip on the outside behind the speed and picks
up the pieces in the stretch. Was game in a neck loss last out after
having some trouble leaving the gate. He has speed figures and par
ratings that put him in the mix. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #5 Runhappy (3-1) - Needs a clean break to get to the lead, but if he does he is likely the
speed of the speed. He's training very well and he posted the highest
speed figure in the field two races back. Major question is how will he
handle all the speed in this field and we know Private Zone is going to
go for the lead. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #4 Limousine Liberal (15-1) - He's 2 for 3 at this distance and has been training lights out from what
I hear. Will need a step forward, but if a pace battle heats up he
could be a major beneficiary. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #3 Stallwalkin' Dude (15-1) - He's 50% at this distance and he could sit the perfect trip behind what
figures to be a hotly contested pace. Not as accomplished as some from a
Graded race standpoint, but he has run some good speed figures.
Definite exotics use.
E - #13 Private Zone (5-2) - He's the best horse of this field on his best day, but I hear he has not
been training as well as in the past. However, he is a multiple Grade 1
winner with a solid string of speed rating and a nice last race par
rating. The training talk is cause for concern, so I'm going to look
elsewhere in hopes of getting a better price. Win chance, definite
exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 10,5
B - 4,3,13
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,5,4 / 10,5,4,3,13 = $12
Race 8 - BC Turf Mile Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Tepin (12-1) - This race looks wide open on paper. She owns a win over this track on off going, always runs consistently and she is a multiple Grade 1 winner. She's also 3 for 4 at this distance. Win selection.
B - #9 Esoterique (7/2) - Multiple Group 1 winner from Europe with a good win shot. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #10 Mshawish (15-1) - I have heard good things from the clockers and it doesn't hurt that he has won multiple Grade 1/Grade 2 races and land Dettori. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #3 Make Believe (3-1) - Multiple Group 1 winner from Europe. Definite horse to include on your tickets.
E - #11 Karakontie (12-1) - European won this event last year, but is a big question mark here. His price figures to offer some good value in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 7
B - 9,10,3,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7,9 / 7,9,10,3,11,1 = $10
Race 9 - BC Juvenile Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Brody's Cause (7/2) - Lots to like here, including a win over this track and at this distance.
Some pace up front will help, but he'll be good to use in the exotics
in a race that figures to pay well with no clear cut favorite. Win
selection, definite exotics use.
B - #3 Greenpointcrusader (4-1) - Has the highest last race speed rating and he is one of 4 horses in here
that has already won a Grade 1. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Exaggerator (6-1) - Has been moving forward in each of his starts. He figures to move
forward again off a 2nd place finish to Brody's Cause. His running
style will help with several speed horses in the race, but he'll need
his best to win against these. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #5 Cocked and Loaded (12-1) - He's won at Keeneland and at this distance, plus his Iroquois par rating
is good. I like the work out time from 2 back. Could add some value
to the exotics. Exotics use.
E - #13 Nyquist (9/2) - He's a multiple Grade 1 winner and might be able to workout a stalking
trip on the outside. If he can do that, he got a shot. I'm just
worried he'll get caught wide. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 7,3
B - 9,5,13
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7,3 / 1,3,9,5,13 = $8
Race 10 - BC Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #1 Golden Horn (4/5) - Just seems to lay over this field from a class standpoint if he can workout a trip. Win selection at a very short price.
B - #7 Big Blue Kitten (8-1) - Is a multiple Grade 1 winner and always shows up. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #11 Red Rifle (10-1) - Will be running late, could boost exotics.
D - #9 Found (8-1) - Euro that has run well in Group 1 competition, exotics use.
E - #6 Twilight Eclipse (20-1) - rarely seems to win, but loves to finish in the Trifecta. Exotics value.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 1
B - 7,11,9
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1 / 7,11,9,6,10,5 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 7,11,9,6 / 7,11,9,6 = $8
$0.50 - 1 / 7,11,9,6 / 4,5,10,3 = $8
$0.50 - Trifecta Box 1,7,11 = $3
$0.50 - Trifecta Box 1,7,9 = $3
$0.50 - Trifecta Box 1,7,6 = $3
Race 11 - BC Classic Grade 1 - Play
A - #4 American Pharoah (4/5) - With Beholder scratched out of the race, this opens the door for
American Pharoah to control the pace. Which we have seen him do
successfully multiple times. He's also proven he doesn't need to carry
his racetrack with him to win. In light of the scratch of Beholder I
think it is completely his race to lose. Win selection at a very short
price!
B - #9 Honor Code (6-1) - Closes hard in the stretch, but I think he is going to get zero pace
help so he'll need to sit a little closer than normal. If someone
presses American Pharoah, then he has a big chance. Win chance,
definite exotics use.
C - #5 Gleneagles (20-1) - This is the horse I want to run into the exotics to add some value.
He's never raced on dirt, but he has won 5 Group 1 and 1 Group 2 race in
Europe. And, I have great respect for trainer Aidan O'Brien. Exotics
use at a very nice price.
D - #3 Frosted (15-1) - He always seems to be around at the finish of these big races and the
win in the PA Derby has set him up well for this. However, American
Pharoah has beaten him 3 times. I don't see him winning, but exotics
use is a definite.
E - #1 Tonalist (6-1) - If he could carry Belmont racetrack with him he is a winner, but he has
yet to win outside of Belmont other than his 2nd career start. He needs
some pace and with Beholder scratching he may not get it. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 4
B - 9,5,3,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4 / 9,5,3,1,2 = $15
$5 - 4/9 = $5
$1 - 9,5,3,1,2/4 = $5
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Friday, October 30, 2015
10/30 - Breeders' Cup Friday Selections
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets:
Will post after the scratches are announced.
Race 5 - 1-1/8 mile Hagyard Fayette Stakes Grade 1 - Action+
A - #3 Race Day (10-1) - He's won over this surface and he has fired off a layoff before. On his best day he could handle this field with ease. Works suggest he is ready at a good price. Win selection.
B - #5 Hoppertunity (7/2) - Is just a cut below the Breeders' Cup horses, so he has a real shot here. Look for him to be in contention turning for home. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Commissioner (5-1) - If he can get to an early lead he can grind away on the front end and could very well take them gate to wire. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #10 Encryption (12-1) - Should sit close to the pace. Exotics use.
E - #6 Protonico (3-1) - Has a win over this course and may very well go for the lead. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 3,5
B - 9,10,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,9 / 3,5,9 = $6
$1 - 3,5,10 / 3,5,10 = $6
$1 - 3,5,6 / 3,5,6 = $6
Race 6 - 1 mile BC Juvenile Turf - Action+
A - #13 Cymric (7/2) - Euro may get parked a little wide, but he missed winning a Group 1 in Europe by a neck in his last race and Euro turf horses tend to be a little better than ours. Needs a good trip. Win selection.
B - #7 Ray's The Bar (20-1) - Love the value on a horse that can really close, look for him to arrive on the scene late, but hopefully in time for the wire. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #10 Conquest Daddyo (12-1) - Has the last out highest beyer figure, but he'll need to workout a trip from that post, good exotic value.
D - #6 Birchwood (12-1) - He a European Group 2 winner, will need to successfully stretch out to 1 mile. Exotics use.
E - #11 Hollywood Don (10-1) - He's moving back to the turf and expect to see him sit close to the pace and be in contention turning for hom. He can win but he'll have to hold off some dead closers as the wire draws near. Good exotics horse.
Bottom End Trifecta/Superfecta Horses:
#9 Sky Marshal (30-1)
#2 Azar (10-1)
#14 Hit It a Bomb (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 13,7,10,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 13,7/13,7,10,6,11 = $8
Race 6 - 1 Mile BC Dirt Mile Grade 1 - Play
A - #5 Lea (8-1) - He's 3 for 3 at this distance and has a 100+ par rating in his last race. He came within a neck of being a two time Grade 1 winner in the Stephen Foster. I really think he could sit the best trip (just behind the speed horses) and then pick up the pieces in the stretch. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #3 Liam's Map (Even) - He's proven he can get a lead and hold on in the stretch after producing some fast fractions. His par ratings are really good and he owns the top 2 best speed ratings in the field. It should also be noted that he is 3 for 3 at this distance. My only question is how hard will he be pressed early by several other speed horses in the race and what toll will that take on him later in the race? If he can shake loose and get a clear lead, he'll be hard to catch. But, the win statistics for the post time favorite in the BC Dirt Mile are not good. Definite win contender and exotics use.
C - #9 Tapiture (10-1) - Don't let the lower par rating or beyers fool you, he ran a winning race in the Dirt Mile last year. Unfortunately, two time BC Dirt Mile winner Goldencents was in that race too and Tapiture just couldn't get by him. With all the speed in the race, he has the potential to sit a really good trip and be in contention in the stretch. He's working very well and should move forward off his win in the Ack Ack Handicap. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #8 Wicked Strong (5-1) - Always seems to put in a good effort, though he has not been back to the winners circle this year. He's another horse that will benefit from all the speed in this race and he could sit a really good trip. Definite exotics use.
E - #1 Red Vine (6-1) - Like that he has a 100+ par rating in his last race. There are several speed horses in here the should help is stalking style. Rosario will need to work out a good trip, but if horses started backing up turning for home he could be sitting in a good spot. Win chance, definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A- 3,5
B - 9,8,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,9/3,5,9,8,1,2 = $15
$5 - Win/Place #5 = $10
Race 8 - 1 Mile BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #10 Illuminate (9/2) - She's a Group 2 winner in Europe and is 3 for 4 on the Turf, Dettori is riding again so you know she'll be in good hands. Win selection.
B - #4 Catch a Glimpse (5-1) - Has the top last out speed figure for this bunch, she'll be on the lead so someone will have to come catch her. She's 2 for 2 on the turf. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #8 Harmonize (7/2) - Has a win over the Keeneland turf course and is 2 for 3 on the turf. She been working well some I'm expect a big effort. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #3 Alice Spring (6-1) - Euro that can definitely win here. She's drawn well, so look for her to cover up and then come running turning for home. May add some value.
E - #7 Sapphire Kitten (10-1) - She'll be arriving on the scene late, but that could be enough to land her in the exotics and a good price.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 10
B - 4,8,3,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,4,8/10,4,8,3,7,9 = $15
Race 9 - 1-1/8 Mile Breeders' Cup Distaff Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Wedding Toast (4-1) - She's 3 for 3 at this distance and she put together multiple triple digit beyers and above par efforts in her last 2 starts. She does her best running on the lead and there are several in here that will challange her. If she get's a clear lead she'll be tough to reel in and she's already beaten several of these. She'll likely be the favorite and with Untapable scratching she'll take a lot more money, so there may not be a lot of value. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #12 Got Lucky (6-1) - Shares the top last out speed rating with Yahilwa. I really like the consistency in her speed figures and she seems to be coming into this race the right way. If the speed collapses she could be running best at the end. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Stellar Wind (12-1) - On paper she comes looks a step below the best, but she really seems to be coming into this race the right way. Stretching out from her above par effort in her last race, she figures to sit just behind the speed and could very well pickup the pieces turning for home. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #8 Curalina (12-1) - Took a big step forward in her last race while running par. Given her post position I think she could sit a really good stalking trip behind the speed. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
E - #4 Stopchargingmaria (5-1) - She's a multiple grade 1 and grade 2 winner, though she has not run near as fast as several of the others in here in terms of par ratings and beyer figures. But she is 5 for 7 at this distance and the clockers have really like the way she is working. Verse these I give her a slight win chance and she's a definite exotics horse.
Bottom Trifecta/Superfecta Horses:
#10 Yahilwa (20-1)
#14 Sheer Drama (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 7
B - 12,9,8,4,10
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7/12,9,8,4,10 = $5
$1 - 12,9,8,4,10/7 = $5
$1 - 12,9,8/12,9,8,4 = $9
Race 10 - 1-3/4 Miles Marathon Grade 2 - Play
A - #4 Neck 'n Neck (3-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles. Speed figures put him at the top. Win selection.
B - #14 Zambian Dream (20-1) - Stretching out and with the length of this race, getting caught wide is less of a concern. Speed figures put him in the mix. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #13 Bailoutbobby (6-1) - Will be coming from well off the pace, but he's won over this track and has run well at 1-1/2 miles. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #9 Majestic Harbor (7/2)
E - #8 Lynx (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 4,14
B - 13,9
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,14,13/4,14,13,9 = $9
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets:
Will post after the scratches are announced.
Race 5 - 1-1/8 mile Hagyard Fayette Stakes Grade 1 - Action+
A - #3 Race Day (10-1) - He's won over this surface and he has fired off a layoff before. On his best day he could handle this field with ease. Works suggest he is ready at a good price. Win selection.
B - #5 Hoppertunity (7/2) - Is just a cut below the Breeders' Cup horses, so he has a real shot here. Look for him to be in contention turning for home. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Commissioner (5-1) - If he can get to an early lead he can grind away on the front end and could very well take them gate to wire. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #10 Encryption (12-1) - Should sit close to the pace. Exotics use.
E - #6 Protonico (3-1) - Has a win over this course and may very well go for the lead. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 3,5
B - 9,10,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,9 / 3,5,9 = $6
$1 - 3,5,10 / 3,5,10 = $6
$1 - 3,5,6 / 3,5,6 = $6
Race 6 - 1 mile BC Juvenile Turf - Action+
A - #13 Cymric (7/2) - Euro may get parked a little wide, but he missed winning a Group 1 in Europe by a neck in his last race and Euro turf horses tend to be a little better than ours. Needs a good trip. Win selection.
B - #7 Ray's The Bar (20-1) - Love the value on a horse that can really close, look for him to arrive on the scene late, but hopefully in time for the wire. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #10 Conquest Daddyo (12-1) - Has the last out highest beyer figure, but he'll need to workout a trip from that post, good exotic value.
D - #6 Birchwood (12-1) - He a European Group 2 winner, will need to successfully stretch out to 1 mile. Exotics use.
E - #11 Hollywood Don (10-1) - He's moving back to the turf and expect to see him sit close to the pace and be in contention turning for hom. He can win but he'll have to hold off some dead closers as the wire draws near. Good exotics horse.
Bottom End Trifecta/Superfecta Horses:
#9 Sky Marshal (30-1)
#2 Azar (10-1)
#14 Hit It a Bomb (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 13,7,10,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 13,7/13,7,10,6,11 = $8
Race 6 - 1 Mile BC Dirt Mile Grade 1 - Play
A - #5 Lea (8-1) - He's 3 for 3 at this distance and has a 100+ par rating in his last race. He came within a neck of being a two time Grade 1 winner in the Stephen Foster. I really think he could sit the best trip (just behind the speed horses) and then pick up the pieces in the stretch. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #3 Liam's Map (Even) - He's proven he can get a lead and hold on in the stretch after producing some fast fractions. His par ratings are really good and he owns the top 2 best speed ratings in the field. It should also be noted that he is 3 for 3 at this distance. My only question is how hard will he be pressed early by several other speed horses in the race and what toll will that take on him later in the race? If he can shake loose and get a clear lead, he'll be hard to catch. But, the win statistics for the post time favorite in the BC Dirt Mile are not good. Definite win contender and exotics use.
C - #9 Tapiture (10-1) - Don't let the lower par rating or beyers fool you, he ran a winning race in the Dirt Mile last year. Unfortunately, two time BC Dirt Mile winner Goldencents was in that race too and Tapiture just couldn't get by him. With all the speed in the race, he has the potential to sit a really good trip and be in contention in the stretch. He's working very well and should move forward off his win in the Ack Ack Handicap. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #8 Wicked Strong (5-1) - Always seems to put in a good effort, though he has not been back to the winners circle this year. He's another horse that will benefit from all the speed in this race and he could sit a really good trip. Definite exotics use.
E - #1 Red Vine (6-1) - Like that he has a 100+ par rating in his last race. There are several speed horses in here the should help is stalking style. Rosario will need to work out a good trip, but if horses started backing up turning for home he could be sitting in a good spot. Win chance, definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses:
A- 3,5
B - 9,8,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,9/3,5,9,8,1,2 = $15
$5 - Win/Place #5 = $10
Race 8 - 1 Mile BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #10 Illuminate (9/2) - She's a Group 2 winner in Europe and is 3 for 4 on the Turf, Dettori is riding again so you know she'll be in good hands. Win selection.
B - #4 Catch a Glimpse (5-1) - Has the top last out speed figure for this bunch, she'll be on the lead so someone will have to come catch her. She's 2 for 2 on the turf. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #8 Harmonize (7/2) - Has a win over the Keeneland turf course and is 2 for 3 on the turf. She been working well some I'm expect a big effort. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #3 Alice Spring (6-1) - Euro that can definitely win here. She's drawn well, so look for her to cover up and then come running turning for home. May add some value.
E - #7 Sapphire Kitten (10-1) - She'll be arriving on the scene late, but that could be enough to land her in the exotics and a good price.
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 10
B - 4,8,3,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,4,8/10,4,8,3,7,9 = $15
Race 9 - 1-1/8 Mile Breeders' Cup Distaff Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Wedding Toast (4-1) - She's 3 for 3 at this distance and she put together multiple triple digit beyers and above par efforts in her last 2 starts. She does her best running on the lead and there are several in here that will challange her. If she get's a clear lead she'll be tough to reel in and she's already beaten several of these. She'll likely be the favorite and with Untapable scratching she'll take a lot more money, so there may not be a lot of value. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #12 Got Lucky (6-1) - Shares the top last out speed rating with Yahilwa. I really like the consistency in her speed figures and she seems to be coming into this race the right way. If the speed collapses she could be running best at the end. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Stellar Wind (12-1) - On paper she comes looks a step below the best, but she really seems to be coming into this race the right way. Stretching out from her above par effort in her last race, she figures to sit just behind the speed and could very well pickup the pieces turning for home. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #8 Curalina (12-1) - Took a big step forward in her last race while running par. Given her post position I think she could sit a really good stalking trip behind the speed. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
E - #4 Stopchargingmaria (5-1) - She's a multiple grade 1 and grade 2 winner, though she has not run near as fast as several of the others in here in terms of par ratings and beyer figures. But she is 5 for 7 at this distance and the clockers have really like the way she is working. Verse these I give her a slight win chance and she's a definite exotics horse.
Bottom Trifecta/Superfecta Horses:
#10 Yahilwa (20-1)
#14 Sheer Drama (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 7
B - 12,9,8,4,10
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 7/12,9,8,4,10 = $5
$1 - 12,9,8,4,10/7 = $5
$1 - 12,9,8/12,9,8,4 = $9
Race 10 - 1-3/4 Miles Marathon Grade 2 - Play
A - #4 Neck 'n Neck (3-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles. Speed figures put him at the top. Win selection.
B - #14 Zambian Dream (20-1) - Stretching out and with the length of this race, getting caught wide is less of a concern. Speed figures put him in the mix. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #13 Bailoutbobby (6-1) - Will be coming from well off the pace, but he's won over this track and has run well at 1-1/2 miles. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #9 Majestic Harbor (7/2)
E - #8 Lynx (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses:
A - 4,14
B - 13,9
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,14,13/4,14,13,9 = $9
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Congratulations to American Pharoah!
A big congratulations to American Pharoah and his connections for winning the Belmont Stakes and being the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to sweep Thoroughbred Racing's Triple Crown. I was only 1 year old when Affirmed won the Triple Crown and I nearly cried as I watched American Pharoah open up in the stretch. Once I watch the race several times and gather my emotions I will make a longer blog post and include American Pharoah's par rating for the Belmont Stakes! There is nothing better than Thoroughbred Racing!
6/6 Bel - Belmont Stakes Selections
Pre Scratches.
Race 11 - 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes
A - #5 American Pharoah - After the Preakness I started trying to figure how I was going to pick against him the Belmont. But once I started to consider who would be able to take him down, I just can't find anyone that I think has a decent shot to step forward enough to what American Pharoah has already proven on the race track. His last six wins have included 5 Grade One and a Grade Two. He has one them by an average margin of 5 lengths. His Grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont. He has the right style to win the race and at some point I expect Espinoza to say come catch me. Win selection, but at a very short price. I'd look for some prices underneath in the exotics.
B - #1 Mubtaahij - A big question mark surrounds this guy. Ran evenly around the track in the Ky Derby, but was never a factor in the outcome. But now he has had sometime to get settled and has been working well. He is one that has the potential to handle the distance with others are fading. Upset chance, definite exotics use.
C - #8 Materiality - Lost all chance in the Ky Derby after a bad start and he still made up several lengths on a field. His sire, Afleet Alex, is a Belmont winner and he has some other stamina in is pedigree. Heard he was worked with less energy than before the Ky Derby, but I wouldn't hang my hat on that completely. Velazquez gets the mount and obviously he is used to the Belmont track, which due to its size can be a hindrance to some jockeys. All things considered I think he has a decent shot to challenge American Pharoah if all goes well. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #7 Keen Ice - Was well off the pace in the Ky Derby and closed to make up about 5 lengths. Still he was well beaten in the Derby and has been well beaten in other races by horses that American Pharoah has already beat. But, he's been training well and I like the long gallop Romans gave him Thursday morning. And, let's not forget that his sire, Curlin, ran a heart breaking second to Rags to Riches in the Belmont. Definite exotics use at a price!
E - #6 Frosted - Has worked well and ran a sneaky good race in the Ky Derby where he was back further than normal and closed 8 lengths when most horses could not make up ground. Not sure he'll like the distance of the Belmont, but he may stay around for a piece of the exotics. Look for him to be closer to the pace than in the Ky Derby and Rosario chooses to stay put as well. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,8
Suggest Plays:
Three Exacta Boxes add value for the 5,1,8 while allowing some long shot possibilities.
$1 - 5,1,8,7 / 5,1,8,7 = $12
$1 - 5,1,8,6 / 5,1,8,6 = $12
$1 - 5,1,8,2 / 5,1,8,2 = $12
Race 11 - 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes
A - #5 American Pharoah - After the Preakness I started trying to figure how I was going to pick against him the Belmont. But once I started to consider who would be able to take him down, I just can't find anyone that I think has a decent shot to step forward enough to what American Pharoah has already proven on the race track. His last six wins have included 5 Grade One and a Grade Two. He has one them by an average margin of 5 lengths. His Grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont. He has the right style to win the race and at some point I expect Espinoza to say come catch me. Win selection, but at a very short price. I'd look for some prices underneath in the exotics.
B - #1 Mubtaahij - A big question mark surrounds this guy. Ran evenly around the track in the Ky Derby, but was never a factor in the outcome. But now he has had sometime to get settled and has been working well. He is one that has the potential to handle the distance with others are fading. Upset chance, definite exotics use.
C - #8 Materiality - Lost all chance in the Ky Derby after a bad start and he still made up several lengths on a field. His sire, Afleet Alex, is a Belmont winner and he has some other stamina in is pedigree. Heard he was worked with less energy than before the Ky Derby, but I wouldn't hang my hat on that completely. Velazquez gets the mount and obviously he is used to the Belmont track, which due to its size can be a hindrance to some jockeys. All things considered I think he has a decent shot to challenge American Pharoah if all goes well. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #7 Keen Ice - Was well off the pace in the Ky Derby and closed to make up about 5 lengths. Still he was well beaten in the Derby and has been well beaten in other races by horses that American Pharoah has already beat. But, he's been training well and I like the long gallop Romans gave him Thursday morning. And, let's not forget that his sire, Curlin, ran a heart breaking second to Rags to Riches in the Belmont. Definite exotics use at a price!
E - #6 Frosted - Has worked well and ran a sneaky good race in the Ky Derby where he was back further than normal and closed 8 lengths when most horses could not make up ground. Not sure he'll like the distance of the Belmont, but he may stay around for a piece of the exotics. Look for him to be closer to the pace than in the Ky Derby and Rosario chooses to stay put as well. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,8
Suggest Plays:
Three Exacta Boxes add value for the 5,1,8 while allowing some long shot possibilities.
$1 - 5,1,8,7 / 5,1,8,7 = $12
$1 - 5,1,8,6 / 5,1,8,6 = $12
$1 - 5,1,8,2 / 5,1,8,2 = $12
Friday, May 22, 2015
Positive Tax Changes for Horse Players Needs Your Support
The US Treasury Department is considering making changes to the tax code that will have a positive affect on horse players.
It is important to let them know we support these changes!
Below is an article written by Andrew Beyer. He outlines the changes that would allow us as horse players to claim the entire cost of the ticket against winnings and not just the minimum bet cost, which is the way it reads now. To let the US Treasury Department know you support these changes please use the links in this email. Once you click the link you will be taken to the NTRA website where you click on the button that says, "Click Here to Support This Effort". Then you simply have to input your name, zip code and email address on the first page. Then, enter your name again on the second page and click "Submit".
Link to Support:
http://www.ntra.com/en/legislative/tax-reg-modernization/
Horseplayers have chance to make tax relief a sure thing
By Andrew Beyer
Horseplayers are accustomed to dealing with tough losses and cruel tricks of fate, knowing that they’re an inescapable part of the game. But most bettors cannot abide a rule that was issued by the Treasury Department in 1978 and has tormented them ever since.
Treasury mandated that bettors fill out a tax form before collecting “certain gambling winnings,” and that the Internal Revenue Service withhold tax from large winnings. Some results of the policy were unfair: The IRS confiscated money from many bettors who, at year’s end, didn’t owe any taxes. The rules that govern reporting and withholding have become absurdly outdated but have undergone little change in 37 years.
What hurts the customers hurts a business, and for many years, racing’s leaders have bemoaned the effects of tax withholding on their industry. Finally, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association has found a smart way to confront the issue. It is urging Treasury to change the calculation that determines what money is subject to withholding. The modification would be an infinitesimal item in the gigantic mass of U.S. tax regulations, but it would be a significant benefit to the sport.
In 1978, Treasury was trying to make sure that windfall gambling profits didn’t escape detection by the IRS. It chose to define a big win as one that returned more than $300 for each $1 wagered. Under today’s rules, a winner must complete IRS Form W-2G if he hits a 300-1 payoff and collects $600 or more. If the payoff is $5,000 or greater, the IRS withholds 25 percent. Thus, a player hitting a pick six worth $10,000 will collect only $7,500.
Treasury was principally targeting games like keno and bingo, not horse racing. Payoffs at huge odds were rare in an era when most wagers were placed on horses to win, place, or show. But by the 1990s, of course, racetrack betting was being transformed by the proliferation of popular exotic bets – trifectas, superfectas, pick threes, pick fours, etc. – that regularly yielded big returns. Instead of conservatively betting horses to win, most players adjusted their approach and tried to hit occasional large payoffs in the exotics. In the process, they got caught in the maw of the IRS.
The typical horseplayer doesn’t make a net profit over the course of a year; if he had money withheld during the course of a losing year, he would be entitled to get the money back. But to satisfy the IRS, he would need records documenting all of his gambling transactions to establish his loss. He would have to file a return itemizing deductions to show losses that offset his reported winnings. Many players either surrendered their money to the IRS or else turned over a winning ticket at the track to a so-called “10 percenter” who would cash it for a fee.
The whole system produced many negative effects. Maury Wolff, gambler and economist, said, “It used to be a standard belief that a dollar at the track would be bet three or four times a day.” A player cashes a bet, feels a little more confident, bets a little more on the next race, and the process continues – what racetracks call the “churn.” But every dollar taken out of circulation by withholding may never get churned again.
The cumulative cost to the racing industry is significant.
One aspect of Treasury’s rules governing withholding was blatantly unfair: the way it chose to define what constitutes a 300-1 return. Bettors almost always play a multiplicity of combinations in pursuit of a big payoff in the exotics. If a player boxes six horses in a superfecta with a $1 base unit, the cost is $360. If he catches a $7,200 payoff, he’s getting a return of 20-1 on his money, well below the 300-1 threshold that triggers withholding. Yet the IRS ignores $359 of the investment and maintains the fiction that this was a $1 bet returning $7,200.
Individual racetracks have tried to reduce the frequency of withholding by offering wagers with lower base units – 10-cent superfectas, 50-cent pick fours, for example – so that they pay less than $5,000 and are exempt from withholding. The industry has for years sought legislative remedies for the policies that govern withholding. But Alex Waldrop, the NTRA’s president, acknowledged, “With the gridlock in Washington, it was a waste of time.”
So, the NTRA altered its strategy and asked Treasury to change its “definition of the amount wagered” and recognize the entire size of the investment that produced a payoff. Congressmen wrote to Treasury seeking to modernize the treatment of racetrack winnings, as did Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. The NTRA wants racing fans to do the same.
In a perfect world, Treasury would instantly recognize that a $360 bet on a superfecta is a $360 bet, not a $1 bet. But in case the regulators do not understand this fact, racing fans ought to remind them.
Link to Support:
http://www.ntra.com/en/legislative/tax-reg-modernization/
It is important to let them know we support these changes!
Below is an article written by Andrew Beyer. He outlines the changes that would allow us as horse players to claim the entire cost of the ticket against winnings and not just the minimum bet cost, which is the way it reads now. To let the US Treasury Department know you support these changes please use the links in this email. Once you click the link you will be taken to the NTRA website where you click on the button that says, "Click Here to Support This Effort". Then you simply have to input your name, zip code and email address on the first page. Then, enter your name again on the second page and click "Submit".
Link to Support:
http://www.ntra.com/en/legislative/tax-reg-modernization/
Horseplayers have chance to make tax relief a sure thing
By Andrew Beyer
Horseplayers are accustomed to dealing with tough losses and cruel tricks of fate, knowing that they’re an inescapable part of the game. But most bettors cannot abide a rule that was issued by the Treasury Department in 1978 and has tormented them ever since.
Treasury mandated that bettors fill out a tax form before collecting “certain gambling winnings,” and that the Internal Revenue Service withhold tax from large winnings. Some results of the policy were unfair: The IRS confiscated money from many bettors who, at year’s end, didn’t owe any taxes. The rules that govern reporting and withholding have become absurdly outdated but have undergone little change in 37 years.
What hurts the customers hurts a business, and for many years, racing’s leaders have bemoaned the effects of tax withholding on their industry. Finally, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association has found a smart way to confront the issue. It is urging Treasury to change the calculation that determines what money is subject to withholding. The modification would be an infinitesimal item in the gigantic mass of U.S. tax regulations, but it would be a significant benefit to the sport.
In 1978, Treasury was trying to make sure that windfall gambling profits didn’t escape detection by the IRS. It chose to define a big win as one that returned more than $300 for each $1 wagered. Under today’s rules, a winner must complete IRS Form W-2G if he hits a 300-1 payoff and collects $600 or more. If the payoff is $5,000 or greater, the IRS withholds 25 percent. Thus, a player hitting a pick six worth $10,000 will collect only $7,500.
Treasury was principally targeting games like keno and bingo, not horse racing. Payoffs at huge odds were rare in an era when most wagers were placed on horses to win, place, or show. But by the 1990s, of course, racetrack betting was being transformed by the proliferation of popular exotic bets – trifectas, superfectas, pick threes, pick fours, etc. – that regularly yielded big returns. Instead of conservatively betting horses to win, most players adjusted their approach and tried to hit occasional large payoffs in the exotics. In the process, they got caught in the maw of the IRS.
The typical horseplayer doesn’t make a net profit over the course of a year; if he had money withheld during the course of a losing year, he would be entitled to get the money back. But to satisfy the IRS, he would need records documenting all of his gambling transactions to establish his loss. He would have to file a return itemizing deductions to show losses that offset his reported winnings. Many players either surrendered their money to the IRS or else turned over a winning ticket at the track to a so-called “10 percenter” who would cash it for a fee.
The whole system produced many negative effects. Maury Wolff, gambler and economist, said, “It used to be a standard belief that a dollar at the track would be bet three or four times a day.” A player cashes a bet, feels a little more confident, bets a little more on the next race, and the process continues – what racetracks call the “churn.” But every dollar taken out of circulation by withholding may never get churned again.
The cumulative cost to the racing industry is significant.
One aspect of Treasury’s rules governing withholding was blatantly unfair: the way it chose to define what constitutes a 300-1 return. Bettors almost always play a multiplicity of combinations in pursuit of a big payoff in the exotics. If a player boxes six horses in a superfecta with a $1 base unit, the cost is $360. If he catches a $7,200 payoff, he’s getting a return of 20-1 on his money, well below the 300-1 threshold that triggers withholding. Yet the IRS ignores $359 of the investment and maintains the fiction that this was a $1 bet returning $7,200.
Individual racetracks have tried to reduce the frequency of withholding by offering wagers with lower base units – 10-cent superfectas, 50-cent pick fours, for example – so that they pay less than $5,000 and are exempt from withholding. The industry has for years sought legislative remedies for the policies that govern withholding. But Alex Waldrop, the NTRA’s president, acknowledged, “With the gridlock in Washington, it was a waste of time.”
So, the NTRA altered its strategy and asked Treasury to change its “definition of the amount wagered” and recognize the entire size of the investment that produced a payoff. Congressmen wrote to Treasury seeking to modernize the treatment of racetrack winnings, as did Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. The NTRA wants racing fans to do the same.
In a perfect world, Treasury would instantly recognize that a $360 bet on a superfecta is a $360 bet, not a $1 bet. But in case the regulators do not understand this fact, racing fans ought to remind them.
Link to Support:
http://www.ntra.com/en/legislative/tax-reg-modernization/
Saturday, May 16, 2015
5/16 Pimlico - Preakness Stakes
I am in Baltimore for the Preakness, so I am unable to post all the stakes races for Saturday. Below are my Preakness Stakes selections and thoughts.
Pre Scratches
Race 13 - 1-3/16 miles Preakness Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Dortmund (7/2) - Tired with an easy lead in the Ky Derby. There seems to be a lot of other speed in this race, but the same thing was said in 2012 and Shackleford went gate to wire. I don't think anyone is going to want to run early with the top 3 that seem so dominant and that could open the door for Dortmund to get a clear lead. A clear lead in the Preakness has proven to be dangerous, see Oxbow in 2013. I think he'll rebound off the Derby and run a big race, whether it is good enough to win or not I'm unsure. But, if he can get a clear lead and/or if Pharoah gets boxed in, then I think he has a big shot. Any of those scenarios could very well happen. Sometimes jockeys are busy trying to keep track of the horse to beat that they forgot about the major threat on the lead. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #8 Firing Line (4-1) - Was the winner of the post position draw. Gary Stevens can sit outside of horses, which allows him to watch and react easily to what is going on inside of him. A lot has been made of how much American Pharoah had to work to win the Ky Derby, but little has been said that Firing Line had to work just as hard. And, he seemed to tire late and drift just before the wire. It wouldn't be a shock if he regressed off his Ky Derby effort, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he moved forward. Regardless, the post position draw is a big plus in his corner, esp since American Pharoah drew the rail. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #1 American Pharoah (4/5) - Had he drawn outside, he would have been my top selection. A lot depends on what happens at the break. Does American Pharoah go for the lead? Does Martin Garcia on Dortmund leave space on the inside for his stablemate or does he get ahead of him and shut the door. The other thing that could make the post position a non-factor is if Dortmund, Firing Line and American Pharoah separate themselves from the rest of this mediocre pack on the far turn. That would allow him to move out and swing wide. Positives - got the best of these in the Derby while fighting down the entire stretch, has the tactical speed to get good position early, is the best horse in the race, if the track turns up wet he has already won in the slop. Negatives - rail post position could easily get him boxed in, not sure how he will handle kick back, other jockeys could be riding to keep him boxed. Lots to consider. Definite win contender and exotics use.
D - #7 Diving Rod (12-1) - Ran well we easily beating rivals in the Lexington Stakes. He'll need a step forward to win and horses that ran in the Ky Derby dominate the win category in the Preakness. Good exotics horse.
E - #4 Danzig Moon (15-1) - Ran evenly around the track in the Kentucky Derby. Don't think he can move forward enough to win against the top 3, but he could very well crack the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 / 2,8,1 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3 = $9
$1 - 2,8 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 = $16
Pre Scratches
Race 13 - 1-3/16 miles Preakness Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Dortmund (7/2) - Tired with an easy lead in the Ky Derby. There seems to be a lot of other speed in this race, but the same thing was said in 2012 and Shackleford went gate to wire. I don't think anyone is going to want to run early with the top 3 that seem so dominant and that could open the door for Dortmund to get a clear lead. A clear lead in the Preakness has proven to be dangerous, see Oxbow in 2013. I think he'll rebound off the Derby and run a big race, whether it is good enough to win or not I'm unsure. But, if he can get a clear lead and/or if Pharoah gets boxed in, then I think he has a big shot. Any of those scenarios could very well happen. Sometimes jockeys are busy trying to keep track of the horse to beat that they forgot about the major threat on the lead. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #8 Firing Line (4-1) - Was the winner of the post position draw. Gary Stevens can sit outside of horses, which allows him to watch and react easily to what is going on inside of him. A lot has been made of how much American Pharoah had to work to win the Ky Derby, but little has been said that Firing Line had to work just as hard. And, he seemed to tire late and drift just before the wire. It wouldn't be a shock if he regressed off his Ky Derby effort, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he moved forward. Regardless, the post position draw is a big plus in his corner, esp since American Pharoah drew the rail. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #1 American Pharoah (4/5) - Had he drawn outside, he would have been my top selection. A lot depends on what happens at the break. Does American Pharoah go for the lead? Does Martin Garcia on Dortmund leave space on the inside for his stablemate or does he get ahead of him and shut the door. The other thing that could make the post position a non-factor is if Dortmund, Firing Line and American Pharoah separate themselves from the rest of this mediocre pack on the far turn. That would allow him to move out and swing wide. Positives - got the best of these in the Derby while fighting down the entire stretch, has the tactical speed to get good position early, is the best horse in the race, if the track turns up wet he has already won in the slop. Negatives - rail post position could easily get him boxed in, not sure how he will handle kick back, other jockeys could be riding to keep him boxed. Lots to consider. Definite win contender and exotics use.
D - #7 Diving Rod (12-1) - Ran well we easily beating rivals in the Lexington Stakes. He'll need a step forward to win and horses that ran in the Ky Derby dominate the win category in the Preakness. Good exotics horse.
E - #4 Danzig Moon (15-1) - Ran evenly around the track in the Kentucky Derby. Don't think he can move forward enough to win against the top 3, but he could very well crack the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 / 2,8,1 = $12
$0.50 - 2,8,1 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3 = $9
$1 - 2,8 / 2,8,1 / 2,8,1,7,4,3 = $16
Saturday, May 2, 2015
5/2 Churchill Downs - Kentucky Derby Day Stakes Races
Our Stat Guide Package for the Triple Crown is Now Available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 11:54am EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
NOTE: Usually I try to try to type something about each horse, but due to time constraints today I am just commenting on my top selections.
Race 5 - 1mi Pat Day Mile G3 - Play
A - #2 Gimme Da Lute (7/2) - I really like the workout pattern with the nice 5f work followed by the longer 7f work. He's 2 for 3 and beat a next out winner last in his last race.
B - #6 Competitive Edge (6/5) - He's moving in the right direction and you can't deny his connections or his win margins. But those wins have come against much lesser competition. He's working well and is a definite contender.
C - #5 Lord Nelson (3-1)
D - #4 Hillbilly Royalty (8-1)
E - #3 The Truth or Else (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 2,6,5
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,6,5 / 2,6,5 = $12
Race 6 - 1-1/16 mile American Turf G2 - Play
A - #6 A Lot (9/2) - Is improving, 50% on the turf and he ran a really fast closing fraction in his last race.
B - #1 Luck of the Kitten (7/2) - Always finishes well, but he is a speed horse in a race with some other speed.
C - #14 World Approval (15-1)
D - #11 Divisidero (20-1)
E - #8 Conquest Typhoon (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1,14
Suggest Plays:
$10 Win #6 = $10
$5 Exacta 1 / 6 = $5
Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #8 Judy the Beauty (6/5) - If she run anything close to her past form she'll handle these with ease. But we haven't seen her since the BC FM Sprint. Like that Smith is back on her.
B - #3 Dame Dorothy (9/2) - I think this is the horse to beat only if Judy the Beauty does not run back to her good form.
C - #1 Sweet Reason (5-1)
D - #6 Moonlit Stroll (20-1) - Exotics boost.
E - #2 Thank You Marylou (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,3 / 8,3 = $4
$1 - 8,3 / 8,3,6,5 = $6
Race 8 - 1mi Churchill Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Action+
A - #5 Coffee Clique (3-1) - Will try to repeat here. Is a G1 and G2 winner and he closes as good as anyone on the turf. Excellent shot.
B - #8 Sandiva (7/2) - Another horse that closes well on the turf. I expect to see her in the mix late.
C - #4 Lady Lara (7/2) - Another good turf closer that figures to be in the mix late.
D - #11 Water Hole (12-1) - US debut. Big question mark.
E - #3 Tepin (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,8,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,8,4 / 5,8,4,11 = $9
Race 9 - 7f Churchill Downs G2 - Play
A - #5 Pants On Fire (5-1) - I think this race sets up for him with all the speed. He's run the numbers to win if the speed comes back.
B - #2 Bayern (Even) - May put the field away if he is in top form. Technically, he's won at CD, but was dq'd to 2nd place. When he gets an easy lead he is nearly impossible to catch, but I don't think that will be the case here.
C - #4 Private Zone (2-1)
D - #6 Gentlemen's Bet (10-1)
E - #1 C. Zee (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2
Suggest Plays:
$5 Win #5 = $5
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2,4,6 = $12
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mile Woodford Reserve Turf Classic G1 - Action+
A - #12 Grand Arch (8-1) - Is always in the mix with several of these. He can close well and was within a length of Wise Dan in the 2014 Shadwell Turf Mile.
B - #2 Sky Captain (15-1) - Will need a step forward to win here, but he can close well and his last workout suggest he is ready.
C - #5 Finnegans Wake (9/2) - Seems to be in top form.
D - #9 Seek Again (4-1) - 2015 debut. Nearly won this race last year against Wise Dan.
E - #7 Jack Milton (7-1) - Is a G1 winner and has won over this turf course.
Multi-Race Horses: 12,2,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 12,2,5 / 12,2,5,9,7 = $12
$1 - 12,2,5,9,7 / 12,2,5 = $12
Race 11 - 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby G1 - Action+
A - #18 American Pharoah (5-2) - I hate to say that I am going to pick the favorite in back to back years in the Ky Derby, but I just can find anything to knock him on. The clockers have loved him, he's won 3 Grade won races, sired by a Ky Derby runner up, his stride is beautiful and seem effortless and he drilled the Arkansas Derby field by 8 lengths with his ears pricked after running some solid fractions. Not much value in a race that has had 9 winners that were 10-1 or higher in the last 21 years. Win selection, definite exotics key horse.
B - #3 Materiality (12-1) - A move forward off that slow and deep Florida Derby track could set him up for victory. Not crazy about the post, but he has some gate speed which will help him. He's sort of an unknown as he raced in only 1 Ky Derby prep. Like his chances with a good trip. Win candidate, definite exotics use.
C - #10 Firing Line (12-1) - He ran above par in all 3 of Ky Derby prep races, but he was never able to get past Dortmund in 2 of those races. He made the Sunland Derby field look like a bunch of 5K Claimers in his most recent start. I'm giving him a win shot and will definitely use him in my exotics.
D - #8 Dortmund (3-1) - Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, Dortmund has won all six of his races and done very little wrong. Two of those races were Grade 1 wins, which included the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent race. In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Dortmund lost the lead and looked beaten in the stretch by Firing Line, but he fought back to edge him at the wire for the win. He won the San Felipe by two lengths after being challenged by Bolo. In the Santa Anita Derby, he went straight to the lead and put all challengers away turning for home. Good win chance, definite exotics use.
E - #19 Upstart (15-1) - Couldn't quite get past Materiality in the Florida Derby. But, I think the post position will help him. I think he is a horse that will be in the mix at the end. He's been in the Trifecta in all 4 of his Ky Derby prep races and the clockers have been impressed with the way he is working. Definite exotics use, with a very small win chance under the right circumstances.
Horses to Consider for Underneath in Exotics:
#2 Carpe Diem (8-1) - The post is bad for him, but he is 4 for 5 including two Grade 1 wins in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Blue Grass Stakes. Two races back in the Tampa Bay Derby he stalked the pace, took over the lead coming into the stretch and won easily. He earned a 103 par rating in that race. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he used that same running style and easily put away Kentucky Derby contenders Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho to win by three lengths. He is sired by Giant’s Causeway, who was runner up in the 2000 Breeder’s Cup Classic and winner of a Group 1 race in Europe. I like him and he's done little wrong other than act up prerace a few times. Win shot with really good trip, definite exotics use.
#6 Mubtaahij (20-1) - He's a big unknown since all of his recent races have been in Dubai. His UAE Derby win was nice looking, but no horse from the UAE Derby has finished in the Superfecta in the last 21 years. Maybe he is the horse from the UAE that will finally break through, but against this field he's going to have to be a great one to pull it off. I do give him a solid chance to hit the board. Definite exotics use.
#12 International Star (20-1) - I really liked this horse during the Ky Derby prep season as he always tries hard. I think he has the right style to come plodding along at the end of the Derby and hit the exotics at a nice price. With some of the others in here, I think it is getting lost in the mix that he has won 4 out of his 5 Ky Derby prep races. I think he'll need a pace meltdown to win and I'm not sure that is going to happen, but I will definite use him in my exotic plays.
#5 Danzig Moon (30-1) - He determinedly chased Carpe Diem during the stretch run in the Blue Grass. I've heard really good things about how he is working. I think he is a horse that can hit the board at a really large price and blow up the exotics. Definite exotics use.
#20 Far Right (30-1) - Not much to knock him on other than the fact that American Pharoah drilled him by 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. I think he is a horse that could plod his way into the exotics in the stretch. Plus, I always have to respect Mike Smith. Bottom end exotics use.
#15 Frosted (15-1) - Would have like to have seen a better time in the Wood Memorial, but when you run the opening 3/4 miles in 1:13.41 you can only finish so fast in the stretch. And, he still won the race with a good run in the stretch. I wouldn't talk anyone off of him that likes him, but I am going to use him only on the bottom end of my exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 18,3,10,8,19
Suggest Plays:
Trifecta Play
$0.50 - 18 / 3,10,8,19 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $18.00
$0.50 - 3,10,8,19 / 18 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $18.00
$0.50 - 3,10,8,19 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5 / 18 = $14.00
$0.50 - 18 / 2,6,12,5,20,15 / 3,10,8,19 = $12.00
Exacta Play
$1 - 18,3,10,8,19,2 / 18,3,10,8,19,2 = $30
$1 - 18 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $10
$2 - 18 / 3,10,8,19,2 = $10
Updated 11:54am EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
NOTE: Usually I try to try to type something about each horse, but due to time constraints today I am just commenting on my top selections.
Race 5 - 1mi Pat Day Mile G3 - Play
A - #2 Gimme Da Lute (7/2) - I really like the workout pattern with the nice 5f work followed by the longer 7f work. He's 2 for 3 and beat a next out winner last in his last race.
B - #6 Competitive Edge (6/5) - He's moving in the right direction and you can't deny his connections or his win margins. But those wins have come against much lesser competition. He's working well and is a definite contender.
C - #5 Lord Nelson (3-1)
D - #4 Hillbilly Royalty (8-1)
E - #3 The Truth or Else (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 2,6,5
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,6,5 / 2,6,5 = $12
Race 6 - 1-1/16 mile American Turf G2 - Play
A - #6 A Lot (9/2) - Is improving, 50% on the turf and he ran a really fast closing fraction in his last race.
B - #1 Luck of the Kitten (7/2) - Always finishes well, but he is a speed horse in a race with some other speed.
C - #14 World Approval (15-1)
D - #11 Divisidero (20-1)
E - #8 Conquest Typhoon (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1,14
Suggest Plays:
$10 Win #6 = $10
$5 Exacta 1 / 6 = $5
Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #8 Judy the Beauty (6/5) - If she run anything close to her past form she'll handle these with ease. But we haven't seen her since the BC FM Sprint. Like that Smith is back on her.
B - #3 Dame Dorothy (9/2) - I think this is the horse to beat only if Judy the Beauty does not run back to her good form.
C - #1 Sweet Reason (5-1)
D - #6 Moonlit Stroll (20-1) - Exotics boost.
E - #2 Thank You Marylou (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,3 / 8,3 = $4
$1 - 8,3 / 8,3,6,5 = $6
Race 8 - 1mi Churchill Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Action+
A - #5 Coffee Clique (3-1) - Will try to repeat here. Is a G1 and G2 winner and he closes as good as anyone on the turf. Excellent shot.
B - #8 Sandiva (7/2) - Another horse that closes well on the turf. I expect to see her in the mix late.
C - #4 Lady Lara (7/2) - Another good turf closer that figures to be in the mix late.
D - #11 Water Hole (12-1) - US debut. Big question mark.
E - #3 Tepin (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,8,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,8,4 / 5,8,4,11 = $9
Race 9 - 7f Churchill Downs G2 - Play
A - #5 Pants On Fire (5-1) - I think this race sets up for him with all the speed. He's run the numbers to win if the speed comes back.
B - #2 Bayern (Even) - May put the field away if he is in top form. Technically, he's won at CD, but was dq'd to 2nd place. When he gets an easy lead he is nearly impossible to catch, but I don't think that will be the case here.
C - #4 Private Zone (2-1)
D - #6 Gentlemen's Bet (10-1)
E - #1 C. Zee (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2
Suggest Plays:
$5 Win #5 = $5
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2,4,6 = $12
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mile Woodford Reserve Turf Classic G1 - Action+
A - #12 Grand Arch (8-1) - Is always in the mix with several of these. He can close well and was within a length of Wise Dan in the 2014 Shadwell Turf Mile.
B - #2 Sky Captain (15-1) - Will need a step forward to win here, but he can close well and his last workout suggest he is ready.
C - #5 Finnegans Wake (9/2) - Seems to be in top form.
D - #9 Seek Again (4-1) - 2015 debut. Nearly won this race last year against Wise Dan.
E - #7 Jack Milton (7-1) - Is a G1 winner and has won over this turf course.
Multi-Race Horses: 12,2,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 12,2,5 / 12,2,5,9,7 = $12
$1 - 12,2,5,9,7 / 12,2,5 = $12
Race 11 - 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby G1 - Action+
A - #18 American Pharoah (5-2) - I hate to say that I am going to pick the favorite in back to back years in the Ky Derby, but I just can find anything to knock him on. The clockers have loved him, he's won 3 Grade won races, sired by a Ky Derby runner up, his stride is beautiful and seem effortless and he drilled the Arkansas Derby field by 8 lengths with his ears pricked after running some solid fractions. Not much value in a race that has had 9 winners that were 10-1 or higher in the last 21 years. Win selection, definite exotics key horse.
B - #3 Materiality (12-1) - A move forward off that slow and deep Florida Derby track could set him up for victory. Not crazy about the post, but he has some gate speed which will help him. He's sort of an unknown as he raced in only 1 Ky Derby prep. Like his chances with a good trip. Win candidate, definite exotics use.
C - #10 Firing Line (12-1) - He ran above par in all 3 of Ky Derby prep races, but he was never able to get past Dortmund in 2 of those races. He made the Sunland Derby field look like a bunch of 5K Claimers in his most recent start. I'm giving him a win shot and will definitely use him in my exotics.
D - #8 Dortmund (3-1) - Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, Dortmund has won all six of his races and done very little wrong. Two of those races were Grade 1 wins, which included the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent race. In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Dortmund lost the lead and looked beaten in the stretch by Firing Line, but he fought back to edge him at the wire for the win. He won the San Felipe by two lengths after being challenged by Bolo. In the Santa Anita Derby, he went straight to the lead and put all challengers away turning for home. Good win chance, definite exotics use.
E - #19 Upstart (15-1) - Couldn't quite get past Materiality in the Florida Derby. But, I think the post position will help him. I think he is a horse that will be in the mix at the end. He's been in the Trifecta in all 4 of his Ky Derby prep races and the clockers have been impressed with the way he is working. Definite exotics use, with a very small win chance under the right circumstances.
Horses to Consider for Underneath in Exotics:
#2 Carpe Diem (8-1) - The post is bad for him, but he is 4 for 5 including two Grade 1 wins in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Blue Grass Stakes. Two races back in the Tampa Bay Derby he stalked the pace, took over the lead coming into the stretch and won easily. He earned a 103 par rating in that race. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he used that same running style and easily put away Kentucky Derby contenders Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho to win by three lengths. He is sired by Giant’s Causeway, who was runner up in the 2000 Breeder’s Cup Classic and winner of a Group 1 race in Europe. I like him and he's done little wrong other than act up prerace a few times. Win shot with really good trip, definite exotics use.
#6 Mubtaahij (20-1) - He's a big unknown since all of his recent races have been in Dubai. His UAE Derby win was nice looking, but no horse from the UAE Derby has finished in the Superfecta in the last 21 years. Maybe he is the horse from the UAE that will finally break through, but against this field he's going to have to be a great one to pull it off. I do give him a solid chance to hit the board. Definite exotics use.
#12 International Star (20-1) - I really liked this horse during the Ky Derby prep season as he always tries hard. I think he has the right style to come plodding along at the end of the Derby and hit the exotics at a nice price. With some of the others in here, I think it is getting lost in the mix that he has won 4 out of his 5 Ky Derby prep races. I think he'll need a pace meltdown to win and I'm not sure that is going to happen, but I will definite use him in my exotic plays.
#5 Danzig Moon (30-1) - He determinedly chased Carpe Diem during the stretch run in the Blue Grass. I've heard really good things about how he is working. I think he is a horse that can hit the board at a really large price and blow up the exotics. Definite exotics use.
#20 Far Right (30-1) - Not much to knock him on other than the fact that American Pharoah drilled him by 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. I think he is a horse that could plod his way into the exotics in the stretch. Plus, I always have to respect Mike Smith. Bottom end exotics use.
#15 Frosted (15-1) - Would have like to have seen a better time in the Wood Memorial, but when you run the opening 3/4 miles in 1:13.41 you can only finish so fast in the stretch. And, he still won the race with a good run in the stretch. I wouldn't talk anyone off of him that likes him, but I am going to use him only on the bottom end of my exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 18,3,10,8,19
Suggest Plays:
Trifecta Play
$0.50 - 18 / 3,10,8,19 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $18.00
$0.50 - 3,10,8,19 / 18 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $18.00
$0.50 - 3,10,8,19 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5 / 18 = $14.00
$0.50 - 18 / 2,6,12,5,20,15 / 3,10,8,19 = $12.00
Exacta Play
$1 - 18,3,10,8,19,2 / 18,3,10,8,19,2 = $30
$1 - 18 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $10
$2 - 18 / 3,10,8,19,2 = $10
Friday, May 1, 2015
5/1 Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Races
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Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 6 - 1-1/16mi Edgewood Stks TURF G3 - Play
A - #1 Quality Rocks (3-1) - Has the best closing fractions of any horse in the field. Beat a next out winner in her last race while running a career best speed figure.
B - #4 My Year Is a Day (5/2) - Filly makes her debut in the US and it is her first race in 2015. She ran some good winning races in France and you can't complain that she is trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Velazquez.
C - #5 Lady Zuzu (15-1) - Her pace numbers like decent enough to run in the exotics. I'm not sure she can win, but definite exotics use.
D - #6 Feathered (4-1) - Has never run on the turf, but you have to respect that Pletcher has placed her here. Exotics use.
E - #7 Flying Tipat (30-1) - Has closed well on the turf, but she has had two tries at this distance and never hit the exacta.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1,4 / 1,4 = $4
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4,5,6,7 = $8
Race 7 - 1-1/16 mi La Troienne G1 - Action
A - #5 Sheer Drama (3-1) - Beat a next out winner in her last race, the Grade 2 Royal Delta. And she ran a career best speed figure.
B - #2 My Miss Sophia (7/2) - She could very well be the lone speed in here, but this is her first race in 2015 after she regressed at the end of 2014. I'm not sure she will rebound here to win, but she could be the lone speed in the race. She's a huge question mark.
C - #7 Gold Medal Dancer (9/2) - She's won over this track and should be able to get good position early. Beat Untapable two back in the Azeri at Oaklawn, but the champion was not herself that day and she turned it around to beat this one in the Apple Blossom.
D - #3 Sweet Whiskey (5-1) - Exotics use.
E - #4 America (10-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,7,3
Suggest Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alysheba G2 - Play
A - #2 Protonico (7/5) - He could very well grab the early lead and talk the field gate to wire. Have to respect.
B - #3 Neck 'n Neck (10-1) - He loves Cd and his 4 for 10 at this distance. Like the price.
C - #7 Honor Code (8/5) - Some pace will help as he has come from off the pace in his last two start.
D - #6 Midnight Cello (15-1) - Exotics use.
E - #8 Call Me George (15-1) - Exotics booster.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,3,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,3,7 / 2,3,7 = $12
$1 - 2 / 3,7,6,8 = $4
Race 9 - 5f Turf Sprint G3 TURF - Action
A - #3 Heitai (4-1) - Will be looking for him to take them gate to wire. Is 4 for 4 at this distance.
B - #8 Good Deed (4-1) - His closing fractions have been good on the turf and he's 4 out of 6.
C - #2 Channel Marker (12-1) - Like his closing fraction last out while being beat only 1/2 a length.
D - #10 Something Extra (3-1) - Won the Shakertown last out and his turf numbers have been good.
E - #11 Power Alert (5-1) - Not without a chance, closes well.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,8,2,11
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action+
A - #8 Enchanting Lady (4-1) - Ran well while pressing the pace last out. Looking for a repeat effort.
B - #1 Callback (3-1) - Is working well and is a G1 winner.
C - #12 Taylor S (4-1) - Is a speed horse in a race with a lot of speed. Exotics use.
D - #7 Lavender Chrissie (12-1) - Is moving in the right direction and owns a win over this track at at this distance.
E - #3 Ekati's Phaeton (6-1) - Another speed horse, but I respect the jockey and trainer and she beat the Gulfstream Park Oaks 2 back.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,1,12
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 1,12,7,3,11 = $10
$1 - 1,12,7,3 / 8 = $4
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Kentucky Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #7 Lovely Maria (5-1) - Ran a nice Par Rating when she won the Ashland last out and I like her recent workout.
B - #8 I'm a Chatterbox (4-1) - Will either sit just off the pace or go to the lead, but the post should help her get a good position. Is 4 for 6 lifetime.
C - #5 Condo Commando (4-1) - May very well go to the lead and play catch me if you can, plus she has already won at this distance. Legitimate threat.
D - #14 Puca (15-1) - Good exotics price boost. She's been working well. Price is right.
E - #10 Oceanwave (30-1) - If she can hit the board she'll be an exotics bomb, but her race last out was really good and she was moving the best of any horse in the field at the wire. Should like the added 1/16.
Multi-Race Horses: 7,8,5
Suggest Plays:
I think this race has the potential to really pay in the exotics.
$1 - 7,8,5 / 7,8,5 = $12
$1 - 7,8,5 / 7,8,5,14,10 = $12
$1 - 14,10,12,6 / 7,8,5 = $12
Oaks/Derby Double
Looking to added some value by using 3 tickets.
$1 - 7,8,5,14,10,6,12 / 18 = $7
$1 - 7,8,5,12 / 18,3,10,8,19,2 = $24
$1 - 7,8,5 / 18,3,10,8 = $12
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 6 - 1-1/16mi Edgewood Stks TURF G3 - Play
A - #1 Quality Rocks (3-1) - Has the best closing fractions of any horse in the field. Beat a next out winner in her last race while running a career best speed figure.
B - #4 My Year Is a Day (5/2) - Filly makes her debut in the US and it is her first race in 2015. She ran some good winning races in France and you can't complain that she is trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Velazquez.
C - #5 Lady Zuzu (15-1) - Her pace numbers like decent enough to run in the exotics. I'm not sure she can win, but definite exotics use.
D - #6 Feathered (4-1) - Has never run on the turf, but you have to respect that Pletcher has placed her here. Exotics use.
E - #7 Flying Tipat (30-1) - Has closed well on the turf, but she has had two tries at this distance and never hit the exacta.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1,4 / 1,4 = $4
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4,5,6,7 = $8
Race 7 - 1-1/16 mi La Troienne G1 - Action
A - #5 Sheer Drama (3-1) - Beat a next out winner in her last race, the Grade 2 Royal Delta. And she ran a career best speed figure.
B - #2 My Miss Sophia (7/2) - She could very well be the lone speed in here, but this is her first race in 2015 after she regressed at the end of 2014. I'm not sure she will rebound here to win, but she could be the lone speed in the race. She's a huge question mark.
C - #7 Gold Medal Dancer (9/2) - She's won over this track and should be able to get good position early. Beat Untapable two back in the Azeri at Oaklawn, but the champion was not herself that day and she turned it around to beat this one in the Apple Blossom.
D - #3 Sweet Whiskey (5-1) - Exotics use.
E - #4 America (10-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,7,3
Suggest Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alysheba G2 - Play
A - #2 Protonico (7/5) - He could very well grab the early lead and talk the field gate to wire. Have to respect.
B - #3 Neck 'n Neck (10-1) - He loves Cd and his 4 for 10 at this distance. Like the price.
C - #7 Honor Code (8/5) - Some pace will help as he has come from off the pace in his last two start.
D - #6 Midnight Cello (15-1) - Exotics use.
E - #8 Call Me George (15-1) - Exotics booster.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,3,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,3,7 / 2,3,7 = $12
$1 - 2 / 3,7,6,8 = $4
Race 9 - 5f Turf Sprint G3 TURF - Action
A - #3 Heitai (4-1) - Will be looking for him to take them gate to wire. Is 4 for 4 at this distance.
B - #8 Good Deed (4-1) - His closing fractions have been good on the turf and he's 4 out of 6.
C - #2 Channel Marker (12-1) - Like his closing fraction last out while being beat only 1/2 a length.
D - #10 Something Extra (3-1) - Won the Shakertown last out and his turf numbers have been good.
E - #11 Power Alert (5-1) - Not without a chance, closes well.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,8,2,11
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action+
A - #8 Enchanting Lady (4-1) - Ran well while pressing the pace last out. Looking for a repeat effort.
B - #1 Callback (3-1) - Is working well and is a G1 winner.
C - #12 Taylor S (4-1) - Is a speed horse in a race with a lot of speed. Exotics use.
D - #7 Lavender Chrissie (12-1) - Is moving in the right direction and owns a win over this track at at this distance.
E - #3 Ekati's Phaeton (6-1) - Another speed horse, but I respect the jockey and trainer and she beat the Gulfstream Park Oaks 2 back.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,1,12
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 1,12,7,3,11 = $10
$1 - 1,12,7,3 / 8 = $4
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Kentucky Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #7 Lovely Maria (5-1) - Ran a nice Par Rating when she won the Ashland last out and I like her recent workout.
B - #8 I'm a Chatterbox (4-1) - Will either sit just off the pace or go to the lead, but the post should help her get a good position. Is 4 for 6 lifetime.
C - #5 Condo Commando (4-1) - May very well go to the lead and play catch me if you can, plus she has already won at this distance. Legitimate threat.
D - #14 Puca (15-1) - Good exotics price boost. She's been working well. Price is right.
E - #10 Oceanwave (30-1) - If she can hit the board she'll be an exotics bomb, but her race last out was really good and she was moving the best of any horse in the field at the wire. Should like the added 1/16.
Multi-Race Horses: 7,8,5
Suggest Plays:
I think this race has the potential to really pay in the exotics.
$1 - 7,8,5 / 7,8,5 = $12
$1 - 7,8,5 / 7,8,5,14,10 = $12
$1 - 14,10,12,6 / 7,8,5 = $12
Oaks/Derby Double
Looking to added some value by using 3 tickets.
$1 - 7,8,5,14,10,6,12 / 18 = $7
$1 - 7,8,5,12 / 18,3,10,8,19,2 = $24
$1 - 7,8,5 / 18,3,10,8 = $12
Thursday, April 23, 2015
Kentucky Derby & Oaks Stats Guide
Our Stats Guide for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks
is now available! Let Big Day Stats help you handicap these races by
showing you stats and trends for high percentage winners and in the
money finishers for your exotic bets.
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the last 21 years, horses that finished either 1st or 2nd in their previous start have won the Kentucky Derby 18 times (86%).
Just like our previous guides, the analysis and stats in this guide will help you include or eliminate horses as you design your wagers for these races. Click the link below for more information or to purchase the guide.
Purchase the Kentucky Derby & Oaks Stats Guide
Our Stats Guide includes:
High Percentage Stats for Key Horses to use in Exotics
Post Position Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Our Exclusive Par Ratings
Plus, our guide includes Supplement Sheets that are emailed out to all customers once the post positions are drawn. These sheets include a list of entries for each Triple Crown Races, plus the Kentucky Oaks. It includes our exclusive Par Ratings, trip notes for each prep race, my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All of the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.
How to Purchase the Guide
The 2015 Triple Crown and Kentucky Oaks Stats Guide may be purchased for $35 or a yearly subscription to all of our guides maybe purchased for $99.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you may purchase the guide either securely through our online store or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and PayPal. The guide is in .pdf format.
Purchase Link: Purchase the Kentucky Derby & Oaks Stats Guide
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the last 21 years, horses that finished either 1st or 2nd in their previous start have won the Kentucky Derby 18 times (86%).
Just like our previous guides, the analysis and stats in this guide will help you include or eliminate horses as you design your wagers for these races. Click the link below for more information or to purchase the guide.
Purchase the Kentucky Derby & Oaks Stats Guide
Our Stats Guide includes:
High Percentage Stats for Key Horses to use in Exotics
Post Position Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Our Exclusive Par Ratings
Plus, our guide includes Supplement Sheets that are emailed out to all customers once the post positions are drawn. These sheets include a list of entries for each Triple Crown Races, plus the Kentucky Oaks. It includes our exclusive Par Ratings, trip notes for each prep race, my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All of the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.
How to Purchase the Guide
The 2015 Triple Crown and Kentucky Oaks Stats Guide may be purchased for $35 or a yearly subscription to all of our guides maybe purchased for $99.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you may purchase the guide either securely through our online store or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and PayPal. The guide is in .pdf format.
Purchase Link: Purchase the Kentucky Derby & Oaks Stats Guide
Saturday, April 4, 2015
4/4 - Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes & Wood Memorial Day Stakes Races
Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
Our Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races Stat Guides are now available for pre-order. These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To purchase or for more information go to www.bigdaystats.com and click on Stat Guides.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Aqueduct
Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Gazelle G2 - Play
A - #5 Condo Commando (8/5) - May get an easy lead and she seems much the best in here. Has beaten G1 and G2 horses, no other horse in the field has this distinction. Owns a win at this distance and at Aqu. Is 4 for 5 lifetime. - Won $3.30
B - #4 Wonder Gal (7/2) - 1st out in 2015, but she finished close to the winner in two G1's last year. Will need to fire fresh. Good exotics horse.
C - #2 Sweet Corine (4-1) - Some trouble last out, will need to take a step forward, but I like her style and a jockey/trainer that have combined for 32%. Definite exotics use.
D - #7 Noble and a Beauty (8-1) - Exotic use.
E - #3 Money'ssoncharlotte (20-1) - Cross a line thru her last out and she fits. Could be a huge exotics booster.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 5 / 4,2 / 4,2 = $6
$1 - 5 / 4,2,7,3 / 4,2,7,3 = $8
Race 9 - 7f BayShore G3 - Action+
A - #8 Majestic Affair (6-1) - Like the outside post and he's 2 for 2 at this distance. Seems ready when you consider poor performance last out was over an off surface. Jockey/Trainer are 28%.
B - #1 Lord Nelson (2-1) - He likes this distance and has beaten G2 company. I'm sure Baffert has him ready, but he is likely to be over bet and #'s wise others in here are on the same playing field. Win chance, good exotics use.
C - #3 Ready for Rye (9/5) - Own the top speed figure last our, but that was earned while racing solely on the lead. Not sure he can repeat that if challenged. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #5 March (8-1) - Cutting back in distance from the Withers, he's got some upside to consider as he has steadily improved. But, he'll need a big step forward to win. Exotics use.
E - #7 Ackeret (12-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,1,3
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,1,3 / 8,1,3 = $6
$1 - 8,1,3 / 8,1,3,5,7 = $12
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Wood Memorial G1 - Play
A - #5 El Kabier (3-1) - I think he has the best chance to upset Daredevil, he's run consistently throughout the prep season. Not sure how much all of the races have taken out of him, but if he runs his race he should be in contention turning for home. Win chance, good exotics horse.
B - #6 Daredevil (9/5) - If he runs to his ability, he could very well lay over this field. But there are always chances for holes in the armor. Definite win possibility and a horse to include in your exotics.
C - #4 Frosted (5/2) - Always seems to be in the mix, but has just won one race - his maiden race. Not sure he can win, but definite exotics us.
D - #2 Toasting Master (20-1) - With speed in a race that doesn't appear to have much early speed in it, this guy could hit the board at a great price, giving the exotics a much needed boost. Exotics use.
E - #1 Tiz Shea D (8-1) - Didn't run bad in the Gotham, but this will be a step up in class for sure. Should sit close enough in a race with very little pace that he could grab a piece. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,6 / 5,6 / 4,2,1 = $6
$1 - 5,6 / 4,2,1 / 5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 5,6 / 4,2,1 / 4,2,1 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Carter Handicap G1 - Action+
A - #1 Dads Cap (7/2) - He's 2 for 2 at Aqu and his #'s show he can run fast enough to tangle with these. He has some early speed which will help him get out to the front, which is key from post 1. Looking for him to get to the lead and hopefully hold them off in the stretch. - Won $13.40
B - #3 The Big Beast (5/2) - Won the G1 King's Bishop last year and is 4 of 6 lifetime. If he runs to his top form, he'll be hard to beat. Win shot, exotics use.
C - #6 Palace (5-1) - This will be a good price on a horse that is 3 for 3 at Aqu. He'll need to fire fresh to win as this is his first start in 2015. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #7 Wild Dude (3-1) - He'll need to round back into is triple digit form form 2014. He's run well in 2015, but will need to be a little faster to beat these. Exotics use.
E - #2 Clearly Now (4-1) - Is 13 of 16 in the Trifecta, though he has never won at Aqu. His #'s suggest he is capable, but he is another one that will need to fire fresh. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,3,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,3,6 / 1,3,6 = $6
$1 - 1,3,6 / 1,3,6,7,2 = $12
Keeneland
Race 6 - 7f Madison G1 - Action
A - #2 Wedding Toast (4-1) - Owns a win at this distance and will need to step up a little to win but that seems within her scope. She's 5 for 8 lifetime and has always been in the Trifecta. Price is right.
B - #4 Lady Sabelia (3-1) - Will be on the front end and has the last out best speed figure, however that was earned while racing on an easy lead and those horses rarely repeat when challenged. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #3 Stopchargingmaria (5/2) - She's by far the class of the field, but from a #'s standpoint there are others in here who can beat her. Plus, this is her first start in 2015. Todd can have them ready to fire fresh, but I'd rather take a stand against her in this race. I give her a slight win chance, exotics use.
D - #6 Princess Violet (4-1) - May sit the right trip on the outside should a speed duel develop. She ran a nice figure last out at Lrl and another improvement could put her in the winners circle here. Win chance, exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4,3,6
Suggest Plays:
With no clear cut favorite the exotics pools maybe inflated, even with a small field. The exacta prices will tell if that is the case.
$1 - 2,4,3,6 / 2,4,3,6 = $12 - HIT $27.70
Race 7 - 7f Commonwealth G3 - Action+
A - #4 Rocket Time (5-1) - Cutting back in distance it looks like he could get an easy lead. He owns a win over the track and at this distance, plus he's 4 of 7 lifetime. Price is right.
B - #2 Kobe's Back (5/2) - Would really like his chances if there were more speed in the race. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #1 I Got It All (5-1) - Always seems to mix it up as he is 9 out of 11 lifetime in the Trifecta, with a win at Keeneland and at this distance. His #'s say he fits and he maybe the horse that can get first run on the leader if he can workout a trip. Win shot, exotics use.
D - #3 Bourbon Courage (3-1) - He doesn't win much, but he's 15 out of 22 in the Trifecta lifetime and one of his wins came over this track last fall. And he ran a decent 4th last year in the BC Sprint. I don't see him winning, but definite exotics use.
E - #7 C. Zee (7/2) - Has some good #'s and should be forwardly placed. Another one that seems to be a good exotics horse. He's 12 of 14 lifetime in the Trifecta.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,2,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,3,7 = $12 - HIT $14.20
Race 8 - 5-1/2f Shakertown G3 TURF - Action+
A - #10 Power Alert (7/2) - Runs well at this distance and may sit the right trip.
B - #4 Something Extra (10-1) - First out in 2015, but he has some class. However, he has never won at this distance. Win shot, exotics use.
C - #13 Undrafted (5/2) - Will need to work a trip on the far outside, but he lost by just 1/2 a length in the BC Sprint last fall. First out in 2015. Win shot, exotics use.
D - #3 Zee Bros (8-1) - Showed he likes the turf last fall here at Keeneland, should be forwardly placed. Exotics use.
E - #11 Amelia's Wild Ride (6-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,4,13
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,4,13 / 10,4,13,3,11 = $12
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Ashland G1 - Play
A - #6 Lovely Maria (7/2) - Maybe the early speed in a race that appears to have no speed. - Won $5.80
B - #4 Angela Renee (7/2) - Is the class of the field, but I'm not sure her style works in this race where there is little pace. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #3 Peace and War (3-1) - Came from out of the clouds last out to win a G1, but that was last fall and this is her first out in 2015. She'll need to sit a little closer today. Exotics use.
D - #7 West Coast Belle (4-1) - Won a G2, but she is another one in here that has an off the pace style. Exotics use.
E - #1 Lassofthemohicans (4-1) - Bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6 / 4,3,7,1 = $12 - HIT $25.80
$1 - 6,4 / 6,4,3,7 = $6 - HIT $8.60
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Blue Grass Stakes G1 - Play
A - #5 Carpe Diem (Even) - Seems to be the major player here. Has rarely run a bad race and owns a win over this Keeneland surface. All others will need to improve to beat him. If he runs back to his recent form he is a deserving favorite. I'm just not sure I want to take a shot against him in this spot. Deserving favorite. - Won $2.80
B - #7 Classy Class (6-1) - I think this could be the horse that has the best chance to turn the tables on Carpe Diem, though I think it is unlikely should the favorite run his race. Slight win chance, good exotics horse.
C - #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1) - He backed up badly in the San Felipe, but if you draw a line through that race it would put him in the exotics here. Would need big rebound to win, but definite exotics horse.
D - #6 Frammento (8-1) - Owns a win over this surface and his Fountain of Youth fourth place wasn't too bad considering he closed from well out of the clouds. Has a good exotics shot, but the seemingly lack of pace may hurt his win chances. Good exotics horse.
E - #8 Danzig Moon (8-1) - Was never really a factor for the win last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. But, a little improvement would land him squarely in the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 5 / 7,1 / 7,1 = $6
$1- 5 / 7,1,6,8 / 7,1,6,8 = $12 - HIT $31.00
Santa Anita
I only had time to post the Santa Anita Oaks and Santa Anita Derby, however there are several other smaller stakes on the card.
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Santa Anita Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #1 Light the City (5-1) - Ran a close second in a G1 two back, will need a good trip, but the price is good.
B - #6 Stellar Wind (9/5) - Has the last out top speed figure and she's won at this distance and at Sa. Should be a class test for her. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #7 Wild At Heart (8-1) - Like the last workout and has always been in the exacta. Slight win chance with a step forward, definite exotics use. (This is a great book, if you haven't read Wild At Heart you should)
D - #2 Glory (8-1) - Exotics use.
E - #3 Curlin's Fox (4-1) - Has never run on dirt, but she picks up Smith which suggest she has some potential. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,6,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,6,7 / 1,6,7,2,3 = $12
Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Santa Anita Derby G1 - Action+
A - #1 Dortmund (3/5) - Is 5 for 5 lifetime and 3 for 3 on the Santa Anita Dirt. He has seemed to will himself to get up in his recent starts. Two back when he looked beaten in the stretch against Firing Line, he showed he has a lot of determination when he came back to edge Firing Line for the win. No reason to go against him in this small field. Unless, you can find a reason that Bolo or Prospect Park can turn the tables. Deserving favorite. - Won $3.20
B - #5 Prospect Park (7/2) - Closed well in the San Felipe, but was still just 2nd best. Not sure the added ground will help him. Maybe he turns the tables on Dortmund, but I'm just not sure. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #4 Bolo (4-1) - Prove turf horse that ran a good 3rd to Dortmund in the San Felipe. He challenged Dortmund for the lead in that race, but was repelled. He'll need to find more to get the best of Dortmund. Definite exotics use.
D - #2 One Lucky Dane (5-1) - Baffert's other runner in this race that is back on the Derby trail after running 6th in the BC Juvenile. He blew the doors off an Optional Claiming race at Sa last out. Is 2 for 3 on the Santa Anita dirt. Not without a chance, but will need a big step forward to tackle Dortmund. Exotics use.
E - #6 Bad Read Sanchez (30-1) - Seems well below the rest in here, but a bottom end exotics finish would definitely boost the payouts in this small field. I would throw him in on the bottom of my Trifecta and Superfecta plays simply for that factor.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,5,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1 / 5,4 = $4
$2 - 1 / 5,4,2,6 = $8 - HIT $13.40
$2 - 5,4 / 5,4,1 = $8
Our Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races Stat Guides are now available for pre-order. These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To purchase or for more information go to www.bigdaystats.com and click on Stat Guides.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Aqueduct
Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Gazelle G2 - Play
A - #5 Condo Commando (8/5) - May get an easy lead and she seems much the best in here. Has beaten G1 and G2 horses, no other horse in the field has this distinction. Owns a win at this distance and at Aqu. Is 4 for 5 lifetime. - Won $3.30
B - #4 Wonder Gal (7/2) - 1st out in 2015, but she finished close to the winner in two G1's last year. Will need to fire fresh. Good exotics horse.
C - #2 Sweet Corine (4-1) - Some trouble last out, will need to take a step forward, but I like her style and a jockey/trainer that have combined for 32%. Definite exotics use.
D - #7 Noble and a Beauty (8-1) - Exotic use.
E - #3 Money'ssoncharlotte (20-1) - Cross a line thru her last out and she fits. Could be a huge exotics booster.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 5 / 4,2 / 4,2 = $6
$1 - 5 / 4,2,7,3 / 4,2,7,3 = $8
Race 9 - 7f BayShore G3 - Action+
A - #8 Majestic Affair (6-1) - Like the outside post and he's 2 for 2 at this distance. Seems ready when you consider poor performance last out was over an off surface. Jockey/Trainer are 28%.
B - #1 Lord Nelson (2-1) - He likes this distance and has beaten G2 company. I'm sure Baffert has him ready, but he is likely to be over bet and #'s wise others in here are on the same playing field. Win chance, good exotics use.
C - #3 Ready for Rye (9/5) - Own the top speed figure last our, but that was earned while racing solely on the lead. Not sure he can repeat that if challenged. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #5 March (8-1) - Cutting back in distance from the Withers, he's got some upside to consider as he has steadily improved. But, he'll need a big step forward to win. Exotics use.
E - #7 Ackeret (12-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,1,3
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,1,3 / 8,1,3 = $6
$1 - 8,1,3 / 8,1,3,5,7 = $12
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Wood Memorial G1 - Play
A - #5 El Kabier (3-1) - I think he has the best chance to upset Daredevil, he's run consistently throughout the prep season. Not sure how much all of the races have taken out of him, but if he runs his race he should be in contention turning for home. Win chance, good exotics horse.
B - #6 Daredevil (9/5) - If he runs to his ability, he could very well lay over this field. But there are always chances for holes in the armor. Definite win possibility and a horse to include in your exotics.
C - #4 Frosted (5/2) - Always seems to be in the mix, but has just won one race - his maiden race. Not sure he can win, but definite exotics us.
D - #2 Toasting Master (20-1) - With speed in a race that doesn't appear to have much early speed in it, this guy could hit the board at a great price, giving the exotics a much needed boost. Exotics use.
E - #1 Tiz Shea D (8-1) - Didn't run bad in the Gotham, but this will be a step up in class for sure. Should sit close enough in a race with very little pace that he could grab a piece. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,6 / 5,6 / 4,2,1 = $6
$1 - 5,6 / 4,2,1 / 5,6 = $6
$0.50 - 5,6 / 4,2,1 / 4,2,1 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Carter Handicap G1 - Action+
A - #1 Dads Cap (7/2) - He's 2 for 2 at Aqu and his #'s show he can run fast enough to tangle with these. He has some early speed which will help him get out to the front, which is key from post 1. Looking for him to get to the lead and hopefully hold them off in the stretch. - Won $13.40
B - #3 The Big Beast (5/2) - Won the G1 King's Bishop last year and is 4 of 6 lifetime. If he runs to his top form, he'll be hard to beat. Win shot, exotics use.
C - #6 Palace (5-1) - This will be a good price on a horse that is 3 for 3 at Aqu. He'll need to fire fresh to win as this is his first start in 2015. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #7 Wild Dude (3-1) - He'll need to round back into is triple digit form form 2014. He's run well in 2015, but will need to be a little faster to beat these. Exotics use.
E - #2 Clearly Now (4-1) - Is 13 of 16 in the Trifecta, though he has never won at Aqu. His #'s suggest he is capable, but he is another one that will need to fire fresh. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,3,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,3,6 / 1,3,6 = $6
$1 - 1,3,6 / 1,3,6,7,2 = $12
Keeneland
Race 6 - 7f Madison G1 - Action
A - #2 Wedding Toast (4-1) - Owns a win at this distance and will need to step up a little to win but that seems within her scope. She's 5 for 8 lifetime and has always been in the Trifecta. Price is right.
B - #4 Lady Sabelia (3-1) - Will be on the front end and has the last out best speed figure, however that was earned while racing on an easy lead and those horses rarely repeat when challenged. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #3 Stopchargingmaria (5/2) - She's by far the class of the field, but from a #'s standpoint there are others in here who can beat her. Plus, this is her first start in 2015. Todd can have them ready to fire fresh, but I'd rather take a stand against her in this race. I give her a slight win chance, exotics use.
D - #6 Princess Violet (4-1) - May sit the right trip on the outside should a speed duel develop. She ran a nice figure last out at Lrl and another improvement could put her in the winners circle here. Win chance, exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4,3,6
Suggest Plays:
With no clear cut favorite the exotics pools maybe inflated, even with a small field. The exacta prices will tell if that is the case.
$1 - 2,4,3,6 / 2,4,3,6 = $12 - HIT $27.70
Race 7 - 7f Commonwealth G3 - Action+
A - #4 Rocket Time (5-1) - Cutting back in distance it looks like he could get an easy lead. He owns a win over the track and at this distance, plus he's 4 of 7 lifetime. Price is right.
B - #2 Kobe's Back (5/2) - Would really like his chances if there were more speed in the race. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #1 I Got It All (5-1) - Always seems to mix it up as he is 9 out of 11 lifetime in the Trifecta, with a win at Keeneland and at this distance. His #'s say he fits and he maybe the horse that can get first run on the leader if he can workout a trip. Win shot, exotics use.
D - #3 Bourbon Courage (3-1) - He doesn't win much, but he's 15 out of 22 in the Trifecta lifetime and one of his wins came over this track last fall. And he ran a decent 4th last year in the BC Sprint. I don't see him winning, but definite exotics use.
E - #7 C. Zee (7/2) - Has some good #'s and should be forwardly placed. Another one that seems to be a good exotics horse. He's 12 of 14 lifetime in the Trifecta.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,2,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,3,7 = $12 - HIT $14.20
Race 8 - 5-1/2f Shakertown G3 TURF - Action+
A - #10 Power Alert (7/2) - Runs well at this distance and may sit the right trip.
B - #4 Something Extra (10-1) - First out in 2015, but he has some class. However, he has never won at this distance. Win shot, exotics use.
C - #13 Undrafted (5/2) - Will need to work a trip on the far outside, but he lost by just 1/2 a length in the BC Sprint last fall. First out in 2015. Win shot, exotics use.
D - #3 Zee Bros (8-1) - Showed he likes the turf last fall here at Keeneland, should be forwardly placed. Exotics use.
E - #11 Amelia's Wild Ride (6-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,4,13
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,4,13 / 10,4,13,3,11 = $12
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Ashland G1 - Play
A - #6 Lovely Maria (7/2) - Maybe the early speed in a race that appears to have no speed. - Won $5.80
B - #4 Angela Renee (7/2) - Is the class of the field, but I'm not sure her style works in this race where there is little pace. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #3 Peace and War (3-1) - Came from out of the clouds last out to win a G1, but that was last fall and this is her first out in 2015. She'll need to sit a little closer today. Exotics use.
D - #7 West Coast Belle (4-1) - Won a G2, but she is another one in here that has an off the pace style. Exotics use.
E - #1 Lassofthemohicans (4-1) - Bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6 / 4,3,7,1 = $12 - HIT $25.80
$1 - 6,4 / 6,4,3,7 = $6 - HIT $8.60
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Blue Grass Stakes G1 - Play
A - #5 Carpe Diem (Even) - Seems to be the major player here. Has rarely run a bad race and owns a win over this Keeneland surface. All others will need to improve to beat him. If he runs back to his recent form he is a deserving favorite. I'm just not sure I want to take a shot against him in this spot. Deserving favorite. - Won $2.80
B - #7 Classy Class (6-1) - I think this could be the horse that has the best chance to turn the tables on Carpe Diem, though I think it is unlikely should the favorite run his race. Slight win chance, good exotics horse.
C - #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1) - He backed up badly in the San Felipe, but if you draw a line through that race it would put him in the exotics here. Would need big rebound to win, but definite exotics horse.
D - #6 Frammento (8-1) - Owns a win over this surface and his Fountain of Youth fourth place wasn't too bad considering he closed from well out of the clouds. Has a good exotics shot, but the seemingly lack of pace may hurt his win chances. Good exotics horse.
E - #8 Danzig Moon (8-1) - Was never really a factor for the win last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. But, a little improvement would land him squarely in the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 5 / 7,1 / 7,1 = $6
$1- 5 / 7,1,6,8 / 7,1,6,8 = $12 - HIT $31.00
Santa Anita
I only had time to post the Santa Anita Oaks and Santa Anita Derby, however there are several other smaller stakes on the card.
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Santa Anita Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #1 Light the City (5-1) - Ran a close second in a G1 two back, will need a good trip, but the price is good.
B - #6 Stellar Wind (9/5) - Has the last out top speed figure and she's won at this distance and at Sa. Should be a class test for her. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #7 Wild At Heart (8-1) - Like the last workout and has always been in the exacta. Slight win chance with a step forward, definite exotics use. (This is a great book, if you haven't read Wild At Heart you should)
D - #2 Glory (8-1) - Exotics use.
E - #3 Curlin's Fox (4-1) - Has never run on dirt, but she picks up Smith which suggest she has some potential. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,6,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,6,7 / 1,6,7,2,3 = $12
Race 8 - 1-1/8mi Santa Anita Derby G1 - Action+
A - #1 Dortmund (3/5) - Is 5 for 5 lifetime and 3 for 3 on the Santa Anita Dirt. He has seemed to will himself to get up in his recent starts. Two back when he looked beaten in the stretch against Firing Line, he showed he has a lot of determination when he came back to edge Firing Line for the win. No reason to go against him in this small field. Unless, you can find a reason that Bolo or Prospect Park can turn the tables. Deserving favorite. - Won $3.20
B - #5 Prospect Park (7/2) - Closed well in the San Felipe, but was still just 2nd best. Not sure the added ground will help him. Maybe he turns the tables on Dortmund, but I'm just not sure. Slight win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #4 Bolo (4-1) - Prove turf horse that ran a good 3rd to Dortmund in the San Felipe. He challenged Dortmund for the lead in that race, but was repelled. He'll need to find more to get the best of Dortmund. Definite exotics use.
D - #2 One Lucky Dane (5-1) - Baffert's other runner in this race that is back on the Derby trail after running 6th in the BC Juvenile. He blew the doors off an Optional Claiming race at Sa last out. Is 2 for 3 on the Santa Anita dirt. Not without a chance, but will need a big step forward to tackle Dortmund. Exotics use.
E - #6 Bad Read Sanchez (30-1) - Seems well below the rest in here, but a bottom end exotics finish would definitely boost the payouts in this small field. I would throw him in on the bottom of my Trifecta and Superfecta plays simply for that factor.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,5,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1 / 5,4 = $4
$2 - 1 / 5,4,2,6 = $8 - HIT $13.40
$2 - 5,4 / 5,4,1 = $8
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