Saturday, October 31, 2015

10/31 - Breeders' Cup Saturday Races 3-11

Pre Scratches.

Race Rating System-

I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 

Race 3 - BC Juvenile Fillies Grade 1 - Play
A - #10 Songbird (7/5) -She's the class of the field with two Grade 1 wins and the highest last race beyer. However, that high beyer was earned while racing on an uncontested lead and those horses rarely repeat that when they are challenged. She does appear to be the major speed in the race, so I think it is a real possibility that that she could find herself on the front end all alone. And, it doesn't hurt that she has Mike Smith to guide her. It's really hard to go against this scenerio. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #9 Rachel's Valentina (7/2) - She's obviously proven she inherited some of her parents ability by winning the Grade 1 Spinaway last out. Hopefully she'll be able to work out a good stalking trip on the outside. Win contender, definite exotics use.
C - #7 Nickname (4-1) - She's a Grade 1 winner and ran a solid par rating while winning the Frizette over the slop at Belmont. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #2 Tap to It (8-1) - Closed the gap in the stretch last out against Rachel's Valentina, will need a step forward to win, but a definite horse to use in the exotics.
E - #8 Dothraki Queen (10-1) - She'll need some pace to be a win factor, but I definitely think she can hit the exotics at a good price.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 10
B - 9,7,2
Suggest Plays: 

$1 - 10,9 / 10,9,7,2,8 = $8
$1 - 7,2,8,10,9 / 10,9 = $8

Race 4 - BC Turf Sprint Grade 1 - Action+
A - #3 Undrafted (4-1) - Is a Eurpean Group 1 winner and lands Dettori.  I like the way he closes and there is plenty of speed in this race.  He'll need to workout a trip.  Win selection.
B - #7 Green Mask (15-1) - Another horse that can close and being on the outside he should get a good trip.  He's never won at this distance, but I think he stacks up well here with all the speed in the race.  Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #5  Lady Shipman (5/2) - Is a speed horse in a race with a lot of speed, but she ran some pretty good speed figures in 2015.  Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #14 Mongolian Saturday (15-1) - Fits here, but worried he'll get hung wide.  Exotics value.
E - #8 Something Extra (12-1) - She'll needs to take a step forward, but she always seems to be in the Trifecta.  Exotics value.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A- 3,7
B- 5,14,8
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 3,7,5 / 3,7,5,14,8,2 = $15 

Race 5 - BC Filly & Mare Sprint Grade 1 - Action
A - #2 Dame Dorothy (10-1) - Won the Grade 1 Humana Distaff over Judy the Beauty, but she has lost her last two race. She's 4 for 5 at this distance and seems to be moving in the right direction. This race is wide open with a lot of speed horses and I think she has a real possibility to pick up the pieces in the stretch. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #11 Judy the Beauty (6-1) - Won this race last year and was a hard fought second to Groupie Doll two years ago. She loves Keeneland as she is 4 for 5 over this racetrack. She has a lot to like as a multiple Grade 1 winner, but she'll need her best her to win and she hasn't showed that lately. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #14 Cavorting (3-1) - She's way outside, but she does like to come from off the pace so maybe she can tuck in near the back of the field and make a good sustained run. She's a multiple Grade 1/Grade 2 winner. Win chance in a wide open race, definite exotics use.
D - #4 La Verdad (6-1) - Another speed horse, but she is a multiple Grade 2 winner and she has put up some good speed figures. She'll need to get out of the gate quick to establish an early lead, but she could take them a long way if she gets to the lead. Definite exotics use.
E - #8 Stonetastic (8-1) - Yet another speed horse. She sports the best last race speed figure, but that was on an uncontested lead against much lesser competition. She'll be up front, but the question is how long can she hang around in the stretch. Exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 2,11
B - 14,4,8
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 2,11,4 / 2,11,4,4,8 = $12
$5 - WP #2 = $10

Race 6 - BC Filly & Mare Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #8 Dacita (8-1) - I really like the price on a South American shipper that is 7 for 10 on the turf and several of those are Group 1 races.  She'll need to stretch out successfully, but I think she offers the best value.  Win selection, exotics value.
B - #3 Legatissimo (8/5) - A very deserving favorite with 2 Group 1 wins in Europe.  Good win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #2  Sentiero Italia (15-1) - Offers good value for a horse that is 4 for 7 on the turf and a multiple Grade 2 winner on the turf.  Give her a slight win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #11 Stephanie's Kitten (10-1) - Closes well, but she is really hit or miss.  Exotics use.
E - #12 Secret Gesture (8-1) - Euro with a Grade 1 win, scared to leave her off my tickets.  Exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 8,3
B - 3,2,11
Suggest Plays:

$0.50 - 8 / 3,2,11,12,1,9 / 3,2,11,12,1,9 = $15
$0.50 - 3 / 8,2,11,12,1,9 / 8,2,11,12,1,9 = $15

Race 7 - BC Sprint Grade 1 - Action
A - #10 Salutos Amigos (12-1) - I think he sits a perfect trip on the outside behind the speed and picks up the pieces in the stretch. Was game in a neck loss last out after having some trouble leaving the gate. He has speed figures and par ratings that put him in the mix. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #5 Runhappy (3-1) - Needs a clean break to get to the lead, but if he does he is likely the speed of the speed. He's training very well and he posted the highest speed figure in the field two races back. Major question is how will he handle all the speed in this field and we know Private Zone is going to go for the lead. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #4 Limousine Liberal (15-1) - He's 2 for 3 at this distance and has been training lights out from what I hear. Will need a step forward, but if a pace battle heats up he could be a major beneficiary. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #3 Stallwalkin' Dude (15-1) - He's 50% at this distance and he could sit the perfect trip behind what figures to be a hotly contested pace. Not as accomplished as some from a Graded race standpoint, but he has run some good speed figures. Definite exotics use.
E - #13 Private Zone (5-2) - He's the best horse of this field on his best day, but I hear he has not been training as well as in the past. However, he is a multiple Grade 1 winner with a solid string of speed rating and a nice last race par rating. The training talk is cause for concern, so I'm going to look elsewhere in hopes of getting a better price. Win chance, definite exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 10,5
B - 4,3,13
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 10,5,4 / 10,5,4,3,13 = $12

Race 8 - BC Turf Mile Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Tepin (12-1) - This race looks wide open on paper.  She owns a win over this track on off going, always runs consistently and she is a multiple Grade 1 winner.  She's also 3 for 4 at this distance.  Win selection.
B - #9 Esoterique (7/2) - Multiple Group 1 winner from Europe with a good win shot.  Win chance, exotics use.
C - #10 Mshawish (15-1) - I have heard good things from the clockers and it doesn't hurt that he has won multiple Grade 1/Grade 2 races and land Dettori.  Win chance, exotics use.
D - #3 Make Believe (3-1) - Multiple Group 1 winner from Europe.  Definite horse to include on your tickets.
E - #11 Karakontie (12-1) - European won this event last year, but is a big question mark here.  His price figures to offer some good value in the exotics.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 7
B - 9,10,3,11
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 7,9 / 7,9,10,3,11,1 = $10

Race 9 - BC Juvenile Grade 1 - Action
A - #7 Brody's Cause (7/2) - Lots to like here, including a win over this track and at this distance. Some pace up front will help, but he'll be good to use in the exotics in a race that figures to pay well with no clear cut favorite. Win selection, definite exotics use.
B - #3 Greenpointcrusader (4-1) - Has the highest last race speed rating and he is one of 4 horses in here that has already won a Grade 1. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #9 Exaggerator (6-1) - Has been moving forward in each of his starts. He figures to move forward again off a 2nd place finish to Brody's Cause. His running style will help with several speed horses in the race, but he'll need his best to win against these. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #5 Cocked and Loaded (12-1) - He's won at Keeneland and at this distance, plus his Iroquois par rating is good. I like the work out time from 2 back. Could add some value to the exotics. Exotics use.
E - #13 Nyquist (9/2) - He's a multiple Grade 1 winner and might be able to workout a stalking trip on the outside. If he can do that, he got a shot. I'm just worried he'll get caught wide. Exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 7,3
B - 9,5,13
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 7,3 / 1,3,9,5,13 = $8

Race 10 - BC Turf Grade 1 - Play
A - #1 Golden Horn (4/5) - Just seems to lay over this field from a class standpoint if he can workout a trip.  Win selection at a very short price.
B - #7 Big Blue Kitten (8-1) - Is a multiple Grade 1 winner and always shows up.  Win chance, exotics use.
C - #11 Red Rifle (10-1) - Will be running late, could boost exotics.
D - #9 Found (8-1) - Euro that has run well in Group 1 competition, exotics use.
E - #6 Twilight Eclipse (20-1) - rarely seems to win, but loves to finish in the Trifecta. Exotics value.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 1
B - 7,11,9
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 1 / 7,11,9,6,10,5 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 7,11,9,6 / 7,11,9,6 = $8
$0.50 - 1 / 7,11,9,6 / 4,5,10,3 = $8
$0.50 - Trifecta Box 1,7,11 = $3 
$0.50 - Trifecta Box 1,7,9 = $3 
$0.50 - Trifecta Box 1,7,6 = $3  

Race 11 - BC Classic Grade 1 - Play
A - #4 American Pharoah (4/5) - With Beholder scratched out of the race, this opens the door for American Pharoah to control the pace. Which we have seen him do successfully multiple times. He's also proven he doesn't need to carry his racetrack with him to win. In light of the scratch of Beholder I think it is completely his race to lose. Win selection at a very short price!
B - #9 Honor Code (6-1) - Closes hard in the stretch, but I think he is going to get zero pace help so he'll need to sit a little closer than normal. If someone presses American Pharoah, then he has a big chance. Win chance, definite exotics use.
C - #5 Gleneagles (20-1) - This is the horse I want to run into the exotics to add some value. He's never raced on dirt, but he has won 5 Group 1 and 1 Group 2 race in Europe. And, I have great respect for trainer Aidan O'Brien. Exotics use at a very nice price.
D - #3 Frosted (15-1) - He always seems to be around at the finish of these big races and the win in the PA Derby has set him up well for this. However, American Pharoah has beaten him 3 times. I don't see him winning, but exotics use is a definite.
E - #1 Tonalist (6-1) - If he could carry Belmont racetrack with him he is a winner, but he has yet to win outside of Belmont other than his 2nd career start. He needs some pace and with Beholder scratching he may not get it. Exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 

A - 4
B - 9,5,3,1
Suggest Plays:

$3 - 4 / 9,5,3,1,2 = $15
$5 - 4/9 = $5
$1 -  9,5,3,1,2/4 = $5

1 comment:

  1. Good job on your selections this weekend! Hope you did well!