Saturday, June 6, 2015

Congratulations to American Pharoah!

A big congratulations to American Pharoah and his connections for winning the Belmont Stakes and being the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to sweep Thoroughbred Racing's Triple Crown.  I was only 1 year old when Affirmed won the Triple Crown and I nearly cried as I watched American Pharoah open up in the stretch.  Once I watch the race several times and gather my emotions I will make a longer blog post and include American Pharoah's par rating for the Belmont Stakes!  There is nothing better than Thoroughbred Racing!

6/6 Bel - Belmont Stakes Selections

Pre Scratches.

Race 11 - 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes
A - #5 American Pharoah - After the Preakness I started trying to figure how I was going to pick against him the Belmont.  But once I started to consider who would be able to take him down, I just can't find anyone that I think has a decent shot to step forward enough to what American Pharoah has already proven on the race track.  His last six wins have included 5 Grade One and a Grade Two.  He has one them by an average margin of 5 lengths.  His Grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont.  He has the right style to win the race and at some point I expect Espinoza to say come catch me.  Win selection, but at a very short price.  I'd look for some prices underneath in the exotics.
B - #1 Mubtaahij - A big question mark surrounds this guy.  Ran evenly around the track in the Ky Derby, but was never a factor in the outcome.  But now he has had sometime to get settled and has been working well.  He is one that has the potential to handle the distance with others are fading.  Upset chance, definite exotics use.
C - #8 Materiality - Lost all chance in the Ky Derby after a bad start and he still made up several lengths on a field.  His sire, Afleet Alex, is a Belmont winner and he has some other stamina in is pedigree.  Heard he was worked with less energy than before the Ky Derby, but I wouldn't hang my hat on that completely.  Velazquez gets the mount and obviously he is used to the Belmont track, which due to its size can be a hindrance to some jockeys.  All things considered I think he has a decent shot to challenge American Pharoah if all goes well.  Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #7 Keen Ice - Was well off the pace in the Ky Derby and closed to make up about 5 lengths.  Still he was well beaten in the Derby and has been well beaten in other races by horses that American Pharoah has already beat.  But, he's been training well and I like the long gallop Romans gave him Thursday morning.  And, let's not forget that his sire, Curlin, ran a heart breaking second to Rags to Riches in the Belmont.  Definite exotics use at a price!
E - #6 Frosted - Has worked well and ran a sneaky good race in the Ky Derby where he was back further than normal and closed 8 lengths when most horses could not make up ground.  Not sure he'll like the distance of the Belmont, but he may stay around for a piece of the exotics.  Look for him to be closer to the pace than in the Ky Derby and Rosario chooses to stay put as well.  Exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses:  5,1,8
Suggest Plays:

Three Exacta Boxes add value for the 5,1,8 while allowing some long shot possibilities.
$1 - 5,1,8,7 / 5,1,8,7 = $12
$1 - 5,1,8,6 / 5,1,8,6 = $12
$1 - 5,1,8,2 / 5,1,8,2 = $12