Pre Scratches. I will not have time to update for scratches since I will be at Pimlico on Saturday.
Card Notes-
I apologize I couldn't get the entire card up, but I'm in Baltimore and short on time.
My Race Rating System-
I
always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In
some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my
selected
winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider
betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12
$0.50 - 4,5 / 7,4,1,8 / 2,4,1,5,9 / 1 = $40
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5 / 7,4,1,8 / 2,4,1,5,9 / 1,9,2 = $120
Race 8 - 1-1/16 miles Allaire Dupont Distaff - Play
A - #6 Summer Applause (6-1)
B - #7 Brushed by a Star (9/5)
C - #3 Moon Philly (7/2)
D - #2 Withgreatpleasure (10-1)
E - #5 Sea Island (6-1)
Alternate Horses-
#4 Daydreamin Gracie (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6,7 / 6,7,3 / 3,2,5 = $5
$0.50 - 6,7 / 6,7,3,2,5 / 6,7,3,2,5 = $12
$1 - 4 / 6,7 = $2
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Gallorette - Play
A - #4 Samitar (5/2)
B - #5 Old Tune (4-1)
C - #1 Hard Not to Like (10-1)
D - #3 Pianist (4-1)
E - #10 Appealing Cat (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 4,5 / 4,5 = $4
$1 - 4,5 / 1,3,10 = $6
$1 - 1 / 4,5 = $2
Race 10 - 6f Maryland Sprint - Action
A - #7 Candyman E (6-1)
B - #4 Hardened Wildcat (4-1)
C - #1 Action Andy (6-1)
D - #8 Laurie's Rocket (6-1)
E - #10 Sage Valley (5/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,1,8,10
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,4 / 7,4,1,8 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Dixie Stakes - Action
A - #2 Optimizer (7/2)
B - #4 Imaging (5-1)
C - #1 Willcox Inn (6-1)
D - #5 Doubles Partner (6-1)
E - #9 Swift Warrior (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4,1,5,9
Race Notes-
If you're playing the Pick 4 this is a race you may need to go pretty deep to hit.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,4,1 / 2,4,1,3,9 = $12
Race 12 - 1-3/16 miles Preakness Stakes - Play
A - #1 Orb (Even) - probably the best in the race, will need to work a trip
B - #2 Goldencents (8-1) - not sure he wants to go this far, but I thought the same of Shackleford
C - #9 Itsmyluckyday (10-1) - good exotics horse for the price
D - #7 Will Take Charge (12-1) - he's is a monster size wise and will need to get in the clear
E - #4 Departing (6-1) - new face to triple crown races, but not without a shot
Exotics Use-
#8 Govenor Charlie (12-1) - speed horse who may not fade much down the stretch
#5 Mylute (5-1) - improving with every start, a wet track moves him up
#6 Oxbow (15-1) - stayed on best of speed in Derby, not sure how much that took out of him
Multi-Race Horses-
A- 1,2,9
B - 4,8
Race Notes-
I don't see Orb finishing out of the exacta. Also, I'm not sure there is any value in this race, but I always enjoy cashing a ticket on the Preakness.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 1 / 2,9,7 / 2,9,7,4 = $4.50
$0.50 - 1 / 2,9,7,4 / 2,9,7,4 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 2,9,7,4 / 6,8,5 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 6,8,5 / 2,9,7,4 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 6,8,5 / 6,8,5 = $3
$1 - 2,9,7,4,8,5 / 1 = $6
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Friday, May 17, 2013
Pimlico 5-17-2013 - Black Eyed Susan Day Card
Pre Scratches. I will not have time to update for scratches since I will be at Pimlico on Friday.
Card Notes-
The card came up pretty good. I will not have a chance to put up many of the races on Saturday, but I will type up the main stakes on Saturday.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 5,8,2 / 2,7 / 7,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,8 / 2,7 / 7,3 = $4
$0.50 - 11,9 / 2,7 / 7,3 = $4
$0.50 - 5,8,2 / 5 / 7,3 = $3
$0.50 - 5,8,2 / 2,7 / 6 = $3
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12
$0.50 - 2,7 / 7,3 / 13,4,10,8,1 / 4,7 = $20
$0.50 - 2,7 / 7,3 / 13,4,10 / 3,5 = $12
$0.50 - 5 / 7,3 / 13,4,10 / 4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 2,7 / 6 / 13,4,10 / 4,7 = $6
Pimlico Special / Preakness Double
$2 - 4,7 / 1 = $4
$1 - 4,7 / 2 = $2
$1 - 4,7 / 1,9,2,7,4 = $10
$1 - 3,5 / 1 = $2
Race 1 - 1-1/16 miles Stakes - Action
A - #4 Side by Side (9/2) - very interesting move with move up in class after claim
B - #2 Franstein (5/2) - always tough at this distance
C - #1 Tinderbox (8-1)
D - #8 Bayonne (2-1)
E - #3 Garden State (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-4,2,1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,2,1 / 8 / 4,2,1 = $3
$0.50 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,8 / 3 = $4.50
Race 2 - 1-1/16 miles TURF MSW - Action
A - #9 Vicky Ticky Tavie (6-1) - just missed last out, good spot for a Smith winner
B - #14 Killington (6-1) - sire does well with turf horses, like Stevens with the mount
C - #4 Hit Squad (8-1)
D - #7 More Than Sweet (7/2)
E - #3 Yuzuru (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-A - 9,14,4
B - 4,7,3
C - 2,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 6f OC - Play
A - #7 Talent N Passion (8/5) - nice draw with speed, may easily best these
B - #5 Heart of Rome (7/2) - loves to run second at this distance, pace would help
C - #3 Orlyana Queen (9/2)
D - #8 Curlamorous (6-1)
E - #6 Dixiluna (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,5 / 7,5,3 = $8
$1 - 7,5 / 8,6,9,1 = $8
Race 4 - 6f Alw "Lady Legends" - Action
Didn't handicap, just pick some multi race horses.
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Alw - Action
A - #14 Beatnik (9/2) - like the pedigree for turf, maybe close enough in race that lacks speed
B - #3 Hear the Word (5-1) - closes very well
C - #12 Readyshakego (4-1)
D - #8 Fly'n Bayou (9/2)
E - #6 Righteouse Place (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 14,3,12
B - 8,6
C - 5,13
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 6f Skipat Stakes - Play
A - #3 Winning Image (3-1) - 1st out 2013, but works suggest ready, good early speed
B - #6 Strike the Moon (4-1) - has a lot of early speed, may sit a good trip
C - #5 Dance to Bristol (7/5) - may hammer these, but will be over bet, vulnerable
D - #2 Funny's Approval (9/2)
E - #1 Orange's Lil Sis (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,6,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 3,6,5 / 3,6,5 / 3,6,5 = $3
$0.50 - 3,6,5,2 / 3,6,5 / 3,6,5,2 = $9
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6,5,2 / 3,6,5,2,1,7 = $12
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles TURF OC - Action
A - #7 Livingston Street (9/2) - trainer is 29% on 1st claim, good horse, but in a tough spot
B - #5 Humble and Hungry (7/2) - could scratch out of here for Dixie, should move forward
C - #8 Followmyfootsteps (8-1) - can close, has raced against better
D - #11 Volcano Run (4-1)
E - #15 Silver Tie Affair (30-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 7,5
B - 8,11,15
C - 4,2,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 6f Miss Preakness Stakes - Action+
A - #5 Blueeyesintherein (3-1) - good early speed, will need to hold on late, 2 for 2 at 6f
B - #8 I'm Mom's Favorite (8/5) - good post to handle other speed, good shot
C - #2 Tread (9/2) - good early speed, always in exacta at 6f
D - #11 Livin Peace (10-1)
E - #9 Lighthouse Bay (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,8,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 5f TURF Turf Sprint - Play
A - #2 Bridgetown (8/5) - lots of class and probably the best early speed
B - #7 Ben's Cat (9/5) - 10 of 14 at this distance on the turf, big chance
C - #5 Sneaking Uponyou (20-1) - good early speed
D - #3 Night Officer (5-1)
E - #1 Spring to the Sky (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 2,7
B - 5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 2,7 / 2,7 / 5,3,1,8,6 = $5
$0.50 - 2,7 / 2,7 / 5,3,1 = $3
$0.50 - 2,7 / 1,3,5 / 2,7,1,3,5 = $9
$0.50 - 5 / 2,7 / 2,7,1,3 = $3
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles Black Eyed Susan Stakes - Play
A - #7 Emollient (9/5) - posted a 98 beyer in her second out on dirt, hoping she can repeat that
B - #3 Fiftyshadesofhay (2-1) - Beholder running well in the Ky Oaks, gives her some clout
C - #6 Maracuya (8-1) - probably the only other one in the race with a chance to win
D - #9 Marathon Lady (12-1)
E - #8 Toasting (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 7,3
B - 6
Race Notes-
Read an article on drf.com that #5 Walkwithapurpose and #1 Manuka Honey will scratch. To me it leaves it a 3 horse race.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,3 / 7,3,6 / 6,9,8 = $10
$0.50 - 7,3,6 / 7,3,6 / 7,3,6 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,6 / 4,2 = $4
$0.50 - 6 / 7,3 / 7,3,9,8 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 6,9,8 / 7,3,6 = $5
Race 11 - 5f TURF The Very One Stakes - Action
A - #13 Sweet Cassiopeia (5/2) - will need to work trip, but may be better than rest
B - #4 Nechez Dawn (10-1) - likes this distance, good early speed, should move fwd on 2nd out
C - #10 Spun Cap (5-1)
D - #8 Mosaicist (15-1)
E - #1 Donna Getyourgun (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 13,4,10
B - 8,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 13,4 / 13,4,10,8,1 = $8
Race 12 - 1-3/16 miles Pimlico Special Stakes - Play
A - #4 Eighttofasttocatch (9/5) - should be on the lead, hoping he can hold on late, could wire
B - #7 Last Gunfighter (7/5) - could very well take over the lead in the stretch, main danger to #4
C - #3 Brimstone Island (12-1) - should be close to pace, but maybe a cut below best here
D - #5 Richard's Kid (7/2) - old knocker way outclasses these, but recent form gives questions
E - #6 Concealed Identity (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A- 4,7
B- 3,5
Race Notes-
Hard to see much past the first two. Tried to stack some value on them in Trifecta and still give it the ability to pay should Eighttofasttocatch fade out of Trifecta or Richard's Kid find his former youthfulness.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,7 / 4,7 /3,5,6,2 = $8
$0.50 - 4,7 / 4,7,3,5,6 / 4,7,3,5,6 = $12
$0.50 - 4,7 / 3,5,6 / 4,7 = $3
$0.50 - 3,5 / 4,7 / 3,5,4,7 = $4
Race 13 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Hilltop Stakes - Action+
A - #10 Summer of Fun (4-1) - should get a good trip, can close, runs well at distance
B - #5 Premier Steps (5-1) - class drop, some trouble in recent outs, good closer
C - #1 Kitten's Point (5/2) - like the blood line, class drop, has beat G3 company
D - #4 Birdlover (5-1) - maybe the main speed in the race
E - #6 Emotional Kitten (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
10,5,1,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Card Notes-
The card came up pretty good. I will not have a chance to put up many of the races on Saturday, but I will type up the main stakes on Saturday.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 5,8,2 / 2,7 / 7,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,8 / 2,7 / 7,3 = $4
$0.50 - 11,9 / 2,7 / 7,3 = $4
$0.50 - 5,8,2 / 5 / 7,3 = $3
$0.50 - 5,8,2 / 2,7 / 6 = $3
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12
$0.50 - 2,7 / 7,3 / 13,4,10,8,1 / 4,7 = $20
$0.50 - 2,7 / 7,3 / 13,4,10 / 3,5 = $12
$0.50 - 5 / 7,3 / 13,4,10 / 4,7 = $6
$0.50 - 2,7 / 6 / 13,4,10 / 4,7 = $6
Pimlico Special / Preakness Double
$2 - 4,7 / 1 = $4
$1 - 4,7 / 2 = $2
$1 - 4,7 / 1,9,2,7,4 = $10
$1 - 3,5 / 1 = $2
Race 1 - 1-1/16 miles Stakes - Action
A - #4 Side by Side (9/2) - very interesting move with move up in class after claim
B - #2 Franstein (5/2) - always tough at this distance
C - #1 Tinderbox (8-1)
D - #8 Bayonne (2-1)
E - #3 Garden State (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-4,2,1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,2,1 / 8 / 4,2,1 = $3
$0.50 - 4,2,1 / 4,2,1,8 / 3 = $4.50
Race 2 - 1-1/16 miles TURF MSW - Action
A - #9 Vicky Ticky Tavie (6-1) - just missed last out, good spot for a Smith winner
B - #14 Killington (6-1) - sire does well with turf horses, like Stevens with the mount
C - #4 Hit Squad (8-1)
D - #7 More Than Sweet (7/2)
E - #3 Yuzuru (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-A - 9,14,4
B - 4,7,3
C - 2,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 6f OC - Play
A - #7 Talent N Passion (8/5) - nice draw with speed, may easily best these
B - #5 Heart of Rome (7/2) - loves to run second at this distance, pace would help
C - #3 Orlyana Queen (9/2)
D - #8 Curlamorous (6-1)
E - #6 Dixiluna (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7,5 / 7,5,3 = $8
$1 - 7,5 / 8,6,9,1 = $8
Race 4 - 6f Alw "Lady Legends" - Action
Didn't handicap, just pick some multi race horses.
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Alw - Action
A - #14 Beatnik (9/2) - like the pedigree for turf, maybe close enough in race that lacks speed
B - #3 Hear the Word (5-1) - closes very well
C - #12 Readyshakego (4-1)
D - #8 Fly'n Bayou (9/2)
E - #6 Righteouse Place (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 14,3,12
B - 8,6
C - 5,13
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 6f Skipat Stakes - Play
A - #3 Winning Image (3-1) - 1st out 2013, but works suggest ready, good early speed
B - #6 Strike the Moon (4-1) - has a lot of early speed, may sit a good trip
C - #5 Dance to Bristol (7/5) - may hammer these, but will be over bet, vulnerable
D - #2 Funny's Approval (9/2)
E - #1 Orange's Lil Sis (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,6,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 3,6,5 / 3,6,5 / 3,6,5 = $3
$0.50 - 3,6,5,2 / 3,6,5 / 3,6,5,2 = $9
$0.50 - 3,6 / 3,6,5,2 / 3,6,5,2,1,7 = $12
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles TURF OC - Action
A - #7 Livingston Street (9/2) - trainer is 29% on 1st claim, good horse, but in a tough spot
B - #5 Humble and Hungry (7/2) - could scratch out of here for Dixie, should move forward
C - #8 Followmyfootsteps (8-1) - can close, has raced against better
D - #11 Volcano Run (4-1)
E - #15 Silver Tie Affair (30-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 7,5
B - 8,11,15
C - 4,2,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 6f Miss Preakness Stakes - Action+
A - #5 Blueeyesintherein (3-1) - good early speed, will need to hold on late, 2 for 2 at 6f
B - #8 I'm Mom's Favorite (8/5) - good post to handle other speed, good shot
C - #2 Tread (9/2) - good early speed, always in exacta at 6f
D - #11 Livin Peace (10-1)
E - #9 Lighthouse Bay (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,8,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 5f TURF Turf Sprint - Play
A - #2 Bridgetown (8/5) - lots of class and probably the best early speed
B - #7 Ben's Cat (9/5) - 10 of 14 at this distance on the turf, big chance
C - #5 Sneaking Uponyou (20-1) - good early speed
D - #3 Night Officer (5-1)
E - #1 Spring to the Sky (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 2,7
B - 5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 2,7 / 2,7 / 5,3,1,8,6 = $5
$0.50 - 2,7 / 2,7 / 5,3,1 = $3
$0.50 - 2,7 / 1,3,5 / 2,7,1,3,5 = $9
$0.50 - 5 / 2,7 / 2,7,1,3 = $3
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles Black Eyed Susan Stakes - Play
A - #7 Emollient (9/5) - posted a 98 beyer in her second out on dirt, hoping she can repeat that
B - #3 Fiftyshadesofhay (2-1) - Beholder running well in the Ky Oaks, gives her some clout
C - #6 Maracuya (8-1) - probably the only other one in the race with a chance to win
D - #9 Marathon Lady (12-1)
E - #8 Toasting (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 7,3
B - 6
Race Notes-
Read an article on drf.com that #5 Walkwithapurpose and #1 Manuka Honey will scratch. To me it leaves it a 3 horse race.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,3 / 7,3,6 / 6,9,8 = $10
$0.50 - 7,3,6 / 7,3,6 / 7,3,6 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,6 / 4,2 = $4
$0.50 - 6 / 7,3 / 7,3,9,8 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 6,9,8 / 7,3,6 = $5
Race 11 - 5f TURF The Very One Stakes - Action
A - #13 Sweet Cassiopeia (5/2) - will need to work trip, but may be better than rest
B - #4 Nechez Dawn (10-1) - likes this distance, good early speed, should move fwd on 2nd out
C - #10 Spun Cap (5-1)
D - #8 Mosaicist (15-1)
E - #1 Donna Getyourgun (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 13,4,10
B - 8,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 13,4 / 13,4,10,8,1 = $8
Race 12 - 1-3/16 miles Pimlico Special Stakes - Play
A - #4 Eighttofasttocatch (9/5) - should be on the lead, hoping he can hold on late, could wire
B - #7 Last Gunfighter (7/5) - could very well take over the lead in the stretch, main danger to #4
C - #3 Brimstone Island (12-1) - should be close to pace, but maybe a cut below best here
D - #5 Richard's Kid (7/2) - old knocker way outclasses these, but recent form gives questions
E - #6 Concealed Identity (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A- 4,7
B- 3,5
Race Notes-
Hard to see much past the first two. Tried to stack some value on them in Trifecta and still give it the ability to pay should Eighttofasttocatch fade out of Trifecta or Richard's Kid find his former youthfulness.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,7 / 4,7 /3,5,6,2 = $8
$0.50 - 4,7 / 4,7,3,5,6 / 4,7,3,5,6 = $12
$0.50 - 4,7 / 3,5,6 / 4,7 = $3
$0.50 - 3,5 / 4,7 / 3,5,4,7 = $4
Race 13 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Hilltop Stakes - Action+
A - #10 Summer of Fun (4-1) - should get a good trip, can close, runs well at distance
B - #5 Premier Steps (5-1) - class drop, some trouble in recent outs, good closer
C - #1 Kitten's Point (5/2) - like the blood line, class drop, has beat G3 company
D - #4 Birdlover (5-1) - maybe the main speed in the race
E - #6 Emotional Kitten (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
10,5,1,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Baltimore Bound...
I'm heading out tonight for Baltimore and will be at the track for both Black Eyed Susan and Preakness days. I've almost finished the Friday card and will try to have it posted later today - it's shaping up to be a really nice card. Because of time constraints I may not be able to get all of the Preakness Day card posted, but I will definitely get the major races/plays up Friday night!
Friday, May 10, 2013
Early Preakness Thoughts...
With 12 possibilities at this point for the Preakness, it may prove to be Orb's hardest test. At first I was a little more worried about Orb's running style at Pimlico, that was until I watched the Florida Derby where he sat much closer to the pace. Pimlico is a racetrack where I do a lot of handcapping. The most commonly run 2 turn race at Pimlico is at 1-1/16 miles. I know the Preakness is 1/8 further, but because of the sample size I think it is best to look at the stats for the 1-1/16 mile races to determine what type of horse wins at Pimlico. Out of 180 races, considering all types of track conditions, 78 (43%) raced on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the leader. 60 (33%) raced from within 1.5 lengths to 5 lengths of the leader and 42 (23%) raced 5 lengths or greater off the leader.
I think these numbers show Orb clearly needs to be within 5 lengths of the leaders, much like the trip I'll Have Another had last year. And, once I rewatched his Florida Derby I remembered he had this capability. Also, with the likes of Goldencents, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday and a few others, there seems to be a decent amount of speed. Which should help Orb close the gap in the stretch. Orb needs to break cleanly, getting left behind at the gate is not good at Pimlico. The 2011 Preakness proved that with Animal Kingdom, who got off slowly and left himself too much to do against Shackleford. Also, I think it would help Orb to be drawn 8-11, where he can secure a good stalking position. But, not on the far outside. With the slope towards the outside rail on the Pimlico track, horses in the far outside post tend to exit the gate making a right turn. One of the things I liked about Orb's Kentucky Derby was that he started his move early on the 2nd turn and sustained it to the wire. That should help him in the Preakness where I think he'll need every bit of that to run down the leaders trying to hold on in the stretch.
Also, there doesn't seem to be any horse looking to run away from competing against Orb either. The field seems to be pretty deep, especially in the exotics. Even if you concede the race to Orb, trying to pick the Trifecta, may prove to be a task, but that is what makes it pay! Besides Orb, here are a couple of the most interesting horses to me:
Will Take Charge - Was closing with Orb in the Derby until he was stopped cold by Verrazano, who was backing up sharply. Will Take Charge is a huge horse and once he stops it is next to impossible to get him going again. But to his advantage, he picks up Mike Smith for the Preakness. I'd say Mike knows a thing or two about how to get a big horse in the clear so they can make a sustained run. To me, Will Take Charge is a very interesting canidate in the Preakness.
Normandy Invasion - Took over the lead turning for home in the Derby. Some say he moved too soon...maybe he did, but there is also something to be said for trying to break a race open. And, his trainer Chad Brown thought it was going to be a winning move. Sitting a little closer to the pace and a 1/16 of a mile shorter, he could be tough to hold off, especially in the exotics.
Oxbow - He was the only horse up close to the blazing Derby pace that didn't completely stop. That bodes well for him on a track that rewards those within 5L of the leader. He's a hard knocker, so I look for him to be trying for the lead coming off the turn and then hold Orb and Will Take Charge at bay.
Departing - Of the horses who didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, this one has the most sizzle. And his convincing win in his last start may have been a great prep for the Preakness. May be a live contender and a decent price.
Itsmyluckyday - I've liked this horse from the get go. And, based on the Florida Derby, if you like Orb you have to like Itsmyluckyday. Maybe the Derby wasn't his best day on a wet track and I'm sure the pace had something to do with it as well. Look for him to bounce back with a good performance on a track he should love.
Goldencents - He obviously didn't like the wet track or the blazing pace set by Palace Malice. He'll be up close, if not on the lead and if no one else goes, he could just steal the show. As with any speed at Pimlico, the question becomes, if they don't hold on for the win, how far will they fade? And will it be out of the exotics?
I'll be at Pimlico on both Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Days...and to be honest I can't wait! It should be an exciting race, even if Orb proves much the best. I'll post more thoughts once the field solidifies more.
One more note, I would love to see Pimlico have a Pimlico Special, Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Pick 3!
I think these numbers show Orb clearly needs to be within 5 lengths of the leaders, much like the trip I'll Have Another had last year. And, once I rewatched his Florida Derby I remembered he had this capability. Also, with the likes of Goldencents, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday and a few others, there seems to be a decent amount of speed. Which should help Orb close the gap in the stretch. Orb needs to break cleanly, getting left behind at the gate is not good at Pimlico. The 2011 Preakness proved that with Animal Kingdom, who got off slowly and left himself too much to do against Shackleford. Also, I think it would help Orb to be drawn 8-11, where he can secure a good stalking position. But, not on the far outside. With the slope towards the outside rail on the Pimlico track, horses in the far outside post tend to exit the gate making a right turn. One of the things I liked about Orb's Kentucky Derby was that he started his move early on the 2nd turn and sustained it to the wire. That should help him in the Preakness where I think he'll need every bit of that to run down the leaders trying to hold on in the stretch.
Also, there doesn't seem to be any horse looking to run away from competing against Orb either. The field seems to be pretty deep, especially in the exotics. Even if you concede the race to Orb, trying to pick the Trifecta, may prove to be a task, but that is what makes it pay! Besides Orb, here are a couple of the most interesting horses to me:
Will Take Charge - Was closing with Orb in the Derby until he was stopped cold by Verrazano, who was backing up sharply. Will Take Charge is a huge horse and once he stops it is next to impossible to get him going again. But to his advantage, he picks up Mike Smith for the Preakness. I'd say Mike knows a thing or two about how to get a big horse in the clear so they can make a sustained run. To me, Will Take Charge is a very interesting canidate in the Preakness.
Normandy Invasion - Took over the lead turning for home in the Derby. Some say he moved too soon...maybe he did, but there is also something to be said for trying to break a race open. And, his trainer Chad Brown thought it was going to be a winning move. Sitting a little closer to the pace and a 1/16 of a mile shorter, he could be tough to hold off, especially in the exotics.
Oxbow - He was the only horse up close to the blazing Derby pace that didn't completely stop. That bodes well for him on a track that rewards those within 5L of the leader. He's a hard knocker, so I look for him to be trying for the lead coming off the turn and then hold Orb and Will Take Charge at bay.
Departing - Of the horses who didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, this one has the most sizzle. And his convincing win in his last start may have been a great prep for the Preakness. May be a live contender and a decent price.
Itsmyluckyday - I've liked this horse from the get go. And, based on the Florida Derby, if you like Orb you have to like Itsmyluckyday. Maybe the Derby wasn't his best day on a wet track and I'm sure the pace had something to do with it as well. Look for him to bounce back with a good performance on a track he should love.
Goldencents - He obviously didn't like the wet track or the blazing pace set by Palace Malice. He'll be up close, if not on the lead and if no one else goes, he could just steal the show. As with any speed at Pimlico, the question becomes, if they don't hold on for the win, how far will they fade? And will it be out of the exotics?
I'll be at Pimlico on both Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Days...and to be honest I can't wait! It should be an exciting race, even if Orb proves much the best. I'll post more thoughts once the field solidifies more.
One more note, I would love to see Pimlico have a Pimlico Special, Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Pick 3!
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Kentucky Derby Future Wager - A Good Saver Bet
Over the last 3 years the Kentucky Derby future wager exacta has been
the key to my saver bets. By using the future wager exacta I have been able to recoup my money or in some cases,
make money, such as this year and in 2011. First of all, in the
exacta future wager, when betting a horse over the "The Field" you get
all the horses not listed in that Pool for a total of $1, instead of the
$1 each that you have to play on Kentucky Derby day. With this in mind, let's analyze
this years Pool 1 which was open for wagering from Feb. 8-10.
Pool 1 contained 12 of the 19 horses that actually made it to the Kentucky Derby. There were seven horses not listed in Pool 1 that also made it to the gate on Derby day, these horses were: Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Palace Malice, Lines of Battle, Charming Kitten, Orb, Java's War. Because you can group so many combinations for $1 in the future wager, it frees up money that can be played with on the actual day of the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby this year there were 342 possible exacta combinations. By using the exacta future wagers this year, I was able to cover many of these combinations before we even got to the Kentucky Derby.
In Pool 1, I picked 10 horses who were moving forward in their first starts this year or had a good showing in their last starts near end of the year. These horses were: Flashback, He's Had Enough, Itsmyluckday, Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze, Oxbow, Revolutionary, Shanghai Bobby, Verrazano and Violence. I played these horses over The Field and then wheeled The Field back over these horses for a total cost of $20. Six of my 10 horses made it to the Kentucky Derby. So, with the six horses in Pool 1 wheeled over and under the seven horses not listed in Pool 1, I covered 84 of the possible 342 possible combinations in the Derby for only $20. Had you bet these combinations on Derby day it would have cost you the full $84 dollars because you would have to bet each combination.
In Pool 2, I made 5 more bets. I used only 5 horses this time since the exacta had to be played in a $2 unit. The horses I used in Pool 2 were: Goldencents, I've Struck a Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice and Vyjack. Just as I had done in the previous Pool, I wheeled these horses over and under the field for a total cost of $20. Of these horses 4 made it to the starting gate on Derby day. There where 8 horses not listed in Pool 2 that made it to the Derby, they were: Golden Soul, Mylute, Giant Finish, Lines of Battle, Charming Kitten, Will Take Charge, Frac Daddy and Java's War. So, from Pool 2 I covered another 64 combinations for a cost of $20.
Now, when it was time to setup my plays on the day of the Kentucky Derby I already had 148 of the possible 342 combinations covered. And, it was for a little more than a quarter of the cost than if you had bet these same combinations on Derby Day. I decided to build my Derby day exacta plays around three horses: Revolutionary, Orb and Itsmyluckday. Knowing that I had several of the longshots covered in the future wagers I could focus my plays around the horses I thought had the best chance. Here's how I played the race:
$2 - Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $12
$1 - Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze = $15
$1 - Revolutionary / Itsmyluckday, Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Frac Daddy, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10
$1 - Orb / Revolutionary, Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion, Palace Malice, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10
$1 - Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Frac Daddy, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10
$1 - Normandy Invasion / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $3
$1 - Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Verrazano / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $15
Total Race Day Exacta Plays: $75
With these plays I added another 38 combinations to my already 148 from the Derby future wagers. This brought me to a total of 186 combinations of the 342 possible. And the best part is, I had more than half the combinations in the race for a fraction of the cost ($115 total cost from future wagers + race day bets). Plus, I had a few of these plays several times when using my top selections. But, the exacta future wager gives you one more advantage, adding even more combinations at no cost. There is a little known rule that if horses from The Field finish both first and second then the exacta looks to the first horse in the order of finish from that Pool to complete the exacta. That happened this year with Orb and Golden Soul not being listed in Pool 1. So, the winning exacta from Pool 1 was The Field over Revolutionary. When you consider this, I had even more combinations covered than my 186 and at no extra cost to me.
Unfortunately, thanks to Golden Soul sliding into second, none of the exacta's I played on race day actually hit, but I wasn't out of luck thanks to the exacta future wagers plays. Because of the little know rule, I hit The Field over Revolutionary from Pool 1 for a $1 payout of $51.11. From Pool 2, I caught Orb over The Field for a $2 payout of $207.00.
Future wagers and Race Day wagers cost: $115
Total Payout of wagers: $258.11
Though I liked what I was hearing about Golden Soul, I didn't think there would be enough pace for him to close into and I wasn't sure he was better than some of the other mid pack type horses. But, the fast pace by Palace Malice set things up for all the closers. Unfortunately, I missed the $490.80 exacta payout for $1 on race day, but a $143.11 profit isn't bad for what I consider a saver wager in the future Pool!
But, it wasn't just this year that the future pool saved me. In 2012, a future wager in Pool 1 saved me with I'll Have Another over The Field (paying $128.90 for $1) and in 2011 it saved me again with The Field over Mucho Macho Man (since both Nehro and Animal Kingdom were not in Pool 2, it paid $338.20 for $2). You can bet when Pool 1 opens in February 2014 I'll be looking for ten 3 year olds moving forward to setup my savers for a fraction of the cost!
Pool 1 contained 12 of the 19 horses that actually made it to the Kentucky Derby. There were seven horses not listed in Pool 1 that also made it to the gate on Derby day, these horses were: Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Palace Malice, Lines of Battle, Charming Kitten, Orb, Java's War. Because you can group so many combinations for $1 in the future wager, it frees up money that can be played with on the actual day of the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby this year there were 342 possible exacta combinations. By using the exacta future wagers this year, I was able to cover many of these combinations before we even got to the Kentucky Derby.
In Pool 1, I picked 10 horses who were moving forward in their first starts this year or had a good showing in their last starts near end of the year. These horses were: Flashback, He's Had Enough, Itsmyluckday, Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze, Oxbow, Revolutionary, Shanghai Bobby, Verrazano and Violence. I played these horses over The Field and then wheeled The Field back over these horses for a total cost of $20. Six of my 10 horses made it to the Kentucky Derby. So, with the six horses in Pool 1 wheeled over and under the seven horses not listed in Pool 1, I covered 84 of the possible 342 possible combinations in the Derby for only $20. Had you bet these combinations on Derby day it would have cost you the full $84 dollars because you would have to bet each combination.
In Pool 2, I made 5 more bets. I used only 5 horses this time since the exacta had to be played in a $2 unit. The horses I used in Pool 2 were: Goldencents, I've Struck a Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice and Vyjack. Just as I had done in the previous Pool, I wheeled these horses over and under the field for a total cost of $20. Of these horses 4 made it to the starting gate on Derby day. There where 8 horses not listed in Pool 2 that made it to the Derby, they were: Golden Soul, Mylute, Giant Finish, Lines of Battle, Charming Kitten, Will Take Charge, Frac Daddy and Java's War. So, from Pool 2 I covered another 64 combinations for a cost of $20.
Now, when it was time to setup my plays on the day of the Kentucky Derby I already had 148 of the possible 342 combinations covered. And, it was for a little more than a quarter of the cost than if you had bet these same combinations on Derby Day. I decided to build my Derby day exacta plays around three horses: Revolutionary, Orb and Itsmyluckday. Knowing that I had several of the longshots covered in the future wagers I could focus my plays around the horses I thought had the best chance. Here's how I played the race:
$2 - Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $12
$1 - Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze = $15
$1 - Revolutionary / Itsmyluckday, Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Frac Daddy, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10
$1 - Orb / Revolutionary, Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion, Palace Malice, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10
$1 - Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Frac Daddy, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10
$1 - Normandy Invasion / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $3
$1 - Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Verrazano / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $15
Total Race Day Exacta Plays: $75
With these plays I added another 38 combinations to my already 148 from the Derby future wagers. This brought me to a total of 186 combinations of the 342 possible. And the best part is, I had more than half the combinations in the race for a fraction of the cost ($115 total cost from future wagers + race day bets). Plus, I had a few of these plays several times when using my top selections. But, the exacta future wager gives you one more advantage, adding even more combinations at no cost. There is a little known rule that if horses from The Field finish both first and second then the exacta looks to the first horse in the order of finish from that Pool to complete the exacta. That happened this year with Orb and Golden Soul not being listed in Pool 1. So, the winning exacta from Pool 1 was The Field over Revolutionary. When you consider this, I had even more combinations covered than my 186 and at no extra cost to me.
Unfortunately, thanks to Golden Soul sliding into second, none of the exacta's I played on race day actually hit, but I wasn't out of luck thanks to the exacta future wagers plays. Because of the little know rule, I hit The Field over Revolutionary from Pool 1 for a $1 payout of $51.11. From Pool 2, I caught Orb over The Field for a $2 payout of $207.00.
Future wagers and Race Day wagers cost: $115
Total Payout of wagers: $258.11
Though I liked what I was hearing about Golden Soul, I didn't think there would be enough pace for him to close into and I wasn't sure he was better than some of the other mid pack type horses. But, the fast pace by Palace Malice set things up for all the closers. Unfortunately, I missed the $490.80 exacta payout for $1 on race day, but a $143.11 profit isn't bad for what I consider a saver wager in the future Pool!
But, it wasn't just this year that the future pool saved me. In 2012, a future wager in Pool 1 saved me with I'll Have Another over The Field (paying $128.90 for $1) and in 2011 it saved me again with The Field over Mucho Macho Man (since both Nehro and Animal Kingdom were not in Pool 2, it paid $338.20 for $2). You can bet when Pool 1 opens in February 2014 I'll be looking for ten 3 year olds moving forward to setup my savers for a fraction of the cost!
Saturday, May 4, 2013
Churchill Downs 5-4-2013 - Kentucky Derby Day Card
Updated 10:39am. Added Pick 3 plays for Races 5,6,7 and 6,7,8.
Card Notes-
This is all the card, except race 4th and 12th races. A wet track could change things a lot. I tried to keep that in mind, but I wasn't sure what time the rain is suppose to start, so I still kept things pretty straight forward for a fast track.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 1,2,3
$0.50 - 1,5,6,3 / 1,8 / 6,5,1 = $12
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$1 - 8 / 1,8 / 2,1,3 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 1,8 / 2,1,3 / 5,3,2,8 = $12
Woodford/Derby Double
$2 - 9,8 / 3,16 = $8
$1 - 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $6
$1 - 9,8 / 14,8,9,6,5 = $10
$1 - 3,4 / 3,16 = $4
Race 1 - 6f OC - Action
A - #Apropos (8/5) - could jump out to an early lead, likes Cd and last out beyer is good
B - #5 Jan's Perfect Star (8-1) - worked well and has some sneaky speed that can hold
C - #6 Honey Hues (6-1) - good early speed
D - #3 Glamour Puss (2-1) - may sit just off speed
E - #2 Five Star Momma (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,5,6,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 7f OC - Play
A - #1 River Rocks (3-1) - speed cutting back to 7f
B - #8 Slan Abhaile (5/2) - best beyer was earned on lead, working good, logical
C - #2 Gombey Dancer (7/2) - working well, should fire
D - #4 Cone of Light (6-1)
E - #3 Nubin Ridge (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,8,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$5 Win #1 = $5
$1 - 8,2/1
Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles TURF OC - Play
A - #6 Screenplay (3-1) - with lack of speed, he could steal on the lead, runs well at this distance
B - #5 The Pizza Man (3-1) - 6 for 6 at this distance on the turf, pace would help
C - #1 Old Time Hockey (5/2) - should be closing at the finish
D - #4 Under Control (6-1)
E - #3 Atigun (4-1) - is interesting in here, not sure what to make of him, may want to throw in a Tri or Ex. And watch him if this moves to the dirt.
Multi-Race Horses-
6,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 6,5 / 6,5,2 / 6,5,2,4,7,3 = $8
$0.50 - 6,5 / 4,7,3 / 6,5,2 = $6
Race 5 - 1-1/16 miles OC - Play
A - #8 Code West (7/5) - is working well, should best this, but at a short price
B - #12 Hard Aces (12-1)
C - #10 Ghost Hunter (6-1)
D - #2 Balance of Power (10-1)
E - #3 Perfect Title (6-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Twin Engine (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 8 / 12,10,2,3 /12,10,2,3,9 = $12.50
Race 6 - 5f TURF Turf Sprint - Play
A - #1 Southern Dude (10-1) - hoping can get to the lead before the rest realize what is happening
B - #8 Icon Ike (3-1) - may be the best in here, some pace would help chance
C - #7 Berlino Di Tiger (15-1) - should be close to lead, likes this distance
D - #2 Havelock (7/2) - 50% win at this distance on the turf
E - #6 Chamberlain Bridge (4-1) - old timer always closes late
Multi-Race Horses-
1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 1,8 / 1,8 = $4
$1 - 1,8 / 7,2,6 = $6
Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #2 Rumor (5/2) - should be up close, hoping her speed can carry to wire
B - #1 Jamaican Smoke (5-1) - should be on or near the lead, lot of gate speed
C - #3 Same Cross (8-1) - may pick up the pieces if the speed fails
D - #6 Aubby K (7/2) - speedy horse, but 1st out in 2013
E - #9 Holiday Soiree (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,1,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,1 / 2,1,3,6,9 = $8
Race 8 - 1 mile TURF Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Action
A - #5 Hungry Island (4-1) - can get in done on an off turf course, mixed it up with Winter Memories who was a good turf horse
B - #3 Daisy Devine (3-1) - good horse, but may have to deal with several other speeds
C - #2 Channel Lady (12-1) - can close, love the price
D - #8 Marketing Mix (5/2) - coming off the layoff, but best could get these
E - #7 Karlovy Vary (12-1) - speedy horse that could hang on in the exotics
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) - 1st out in 2013, but could be in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 7f The Churchill Downs G2 - Action+
A - #9 Dulaunay (2-1) - if runs to form, will be hard to deny
B - #5 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - fits here, race sets up for
C - #6 Pass the Dice (12-1) - another one that fits at a price, exotics booster
D - #4 Handsome Mike (12-1) - not sure he is good enough to win, but should sit a decent trip
E - #8 Trinniberg (8/5) - love this horse when he is on his game, but don't like here with just returning from Dubai.
Multi-Race Horses-
9,5,6,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Woodford Reserve G1 - Play
A - #9 Point of Entry (7/5) - I think the extra 1/8 of a mile may make a difference
B - #8 Wise Dan (6/5) - Will be hard to handle if he gets the jump on Point of Entry
C - #3 Optimizer (20-1) - Like him in the exotics at a price
D - #4 Silver Max (8-1) - I think this may be the only contender with an upset chance on the lead
E - #Swift Warrior (20-1) - Should get a good trip close to the pace, value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#2 Slim Shady (12-1) - could round out the exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A- 9,8
B - 4
Race Notes-
The only way Point of Entry or Wise Dan get beat is if a horse gets loose on the lead and puts the field to sleep.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 3,5,4 = $6
$0.50 - 9,8 / 3,5,4 / 9,8 = $3
$0.50 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 3,5,4,6 = $4
Race 11 - 1-1/4 miles Kentucky Derby G1 - Action
A - #3 Revolutionary (10-1) - I've like this horse since the Withers, he'll need to work a trip, but he doesn't have to come from way out of it as everyone is suggesting. It would not surprise me to see him sit inside about midpack on the second flight of horses. He's as game as they come and if he can get some daylight turning for home he could prove tough to hold off. Also, Mike Welsch has loved the way he is training.
B - #16 Orb (7/2) - Orb has had no issues leading up to the Derby, and drew really good in post 16. He is probably the most likely winner, but I don't really like the price. Only 4 post time favorites have won in the last 21 years. Still he has every reason to prove he is best in here, not the least of which is that he has been working great according to Mike Welsch.
C - #12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1) - Has been out of sight out of mind, but is doing great according to Welsch. He drew well and is one of an elite crew to have posted a triple digit beyer, and 1 of 2 to have posted 2 triple digit beyers. Very live at a good price.
D - #14 Verrazano (4-1) - Is the other holder of two triple digit beyers and is undefeated. Though his Wood Memorial was not great, the one thing I did like was that he dug in when challenged. If he can get to the lead turning for home, he may be hard to get by. Distance is a question and I view him and Goldencents the same in here, but put Verrazano on top due to the draw.
E - #8 Goldencents (5-1) - Owns the best beyer in a last prep race coming into the Derby. Will have to contend with some other speeds in here and distance could be a question. Still, he didn't look like he was throwing in the towel at the end of the Santa Anita Derby.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Overanalyze (15-1) - I like the way he drew off from the field in the Arkansas Derby, though it was slow, he did come from just off the pace and pulled away from the field. Training well and is live at a price.
#6 Mylute (15-1) - If you like Revolutionary, then you have to like Mylute. Training well and figures to move up on a wet track. Even if he doesn't win, he's another one who could add value in the exotics.
#5 Normandy Invasion (12-1) - Seems to have lost his buzz after the Wood Memorial, but seems to be on his toes. Will be coming late that is for sure.
#18 Frac Daddy (50-1) - Is working great and way under the radar, not sure he can win, but would love him in the exotics at 50-1!
#10 Palace Malice (20-1) - Another one of Todd Pletcher's 15,000 horses in this years Kentucky Derby. Again, I'm not sure he is good enough to win, but love his price in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 3,16,12
B - 14,8,9,6
C - 5,18,10
Race Notes-
There are some really good prices in here that could hit the board in the exotics. Remember that the post time favorite has only won once in the last 21 derbys and was out of the Exacta in 14 of the last 21.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta - if the 3, 16 or 12 run first or second all three exacta's hit, then spreads for value.
$1 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8,9 = $15
$1 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5,18 = $24
$1 - 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5 / 3,16,12 = $21
Trifecta + Exacta Saver
$0.50 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8 / 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5,18,10 = $48
$1 - 3,16,12 / 9,6,5,18,10 - $15
Card Notes-
This is all the card, except race 4th and 12th races. A wet track could change things a lot. I tried to keep that in mind, but I wasn't sure what time the rain is suppose to start, so I still kept things pretty straight forward for a fast track.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 1,2,3
$0.50 - 1,5,6,3 / 1,8 / 6,5,1 = $12
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$1 - 8 / 1,8 / 2,1,3 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 1,8 / 2,1,3 / 5,3,2,8 = $12
Woodford/Derby Double
$2 - 9,8 / 3,16 = $8
$1 - 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $6
$1 - 9,8 / 14,8,9,6,5 = $10
$1 - 3,4 / 3,16 = $4
Race 1 - 6f OC - Action
A - #Apropos (8/5) - could jump out to an early lead, likes Cd and last out beyer is good
B - #5 Jan's Perfect Star (8-1) - worked well and has some sneaky speed that can hold
C - #6 Honey Hues (6-1) - good early speed
D - #3 Glamour Puss (2-1) - may sit just off speed
E - #2 Five Star Momma (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,5,6,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 7f OC - Play
A - #1 River Rocks (3-1) - speed cutting back to 7f
B - #8 Slan Abhaile (5/2) - best beyer was earned on lead, working good, logical
C - #2 Gombey Dancer (7/2) - working well, should fire
D - #4 Cone of Light (6-1)
E - #3 Nubin Ridge (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,8,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$5 Win #1 = $5
$1 - 8,2/1
Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles TURF OC - Play
A - #6 Screenplay (3-1) - with lack of speed, he could steal on the lead, runs well at this distance
B - #5 The Pizza Man (3-1) - 6 for 6 at this distance on the turf, pace would help
C - #1 Old Time Hockey (5/2) - should be closing at the finish
D - #4 Under Control (6-1)
E - #3 Atigun (4-1) - is interesting in here, not sure what to make of him, may want to throw in a Tri or Ex. And watch him if this moves to the dirt.
Multi-Race Horses-
6,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 6,5 / 6,5,2 / 6,5,2,4,7,3 = $8
$0.50 - 6,5 / 4,7,3 / 6,5,2 = $6
Race 5 - 1-1/16 miles OC - Play
A - #8 Code West (7/5) - is working well, should best this, but at a short price
B - #12 Hard Aces (12-1)
C - #10 Ghost Hunter (6-1)
D - #2 Balance of Power (10-1)
E - #3 Perfect Title (6-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Twin Engine (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 8 / 12,10,2,3 /12,10,2,3,9 = $12.50
Race 6 - 5f TURF Turf Sprint - Play
A - #1 Southern Dude (10-1) - hoping can get to the lead before the rest realize what is happening
B - #8 Icon Ike (3-1) - may be the best in here, some pace would help chance
C - #7 Berlino Di Tiger (15-1) - should be close to lead, likes this distance
D - #2 Havelock (7/2) - 50% win at this distance on the turf
E - #6 Chamberlain Bridge (4-1) - old timer always closes late
Multi-Race Horses-
1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 1,8 / 1,8 = $4
$1 - 1,8 / 7,2,6 = $6
Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #2 Rumor (5/2) - should be up close, hoping her speed can carry to wire
B - #1 Jamaican Smoke (5-1) - should be on or near the lead, lot of gate speed
C - #3 Same Cross (8-1) - may pick up the pieces if the speed fails
D - #6 Aubby K (7/2) - speedy horse, but 1st out in 2013
E - #9 Holiday Soiree (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,1,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,1 / 2,1,3,6,9 = $8
Race 8 - 1 mile TURF Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Action
A - #5 Hungry Island (4-1) - can get in done on an off turf course, mixed it up with Winter Memories who was a good turf horse
B - #3 Daisy Devine (3-1) - good horse, but may have to deal with several other speeds
C - #2 Channel Lady (12-1) - can close, love the price
D - #8 Marketing Mix (5/2) - coming off the layoff, but best could get these
E - #7 Karlovy Vary (12-1) - speedy horse that could hang on in the exotics
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) - 1st out in 2013, but could be in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 7f The Churchill Downs G2 - Action+
A - #9 Dulaunay (2-1) - if runs to form, will be hard to deny
B - #5 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - fits here, race sets up for
C - #6 Pass the Dice (12-1) - another one that fits at a price, exotics booster
D - #4 Handsome Mike (12-1) - not sure he is good enough to win, but should sit a decent trip
E - #8 Trinniberg (8/5) - love this horse when he is on his game, but don't like here with just returning from Dubai.
Multi-Race Horses-
9,5,6,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Woodford Reserve G1 - Play
A - #9 Point of Entry (7/5) - I think the extra 1/8 of a mile may make a difference
B - #8 Wise Dan (6/5) - Will be hard to handle if he gets the jump on Point of Entry
C - #3 Optimizer (20-1) - Like him in the exotics at a price
D - #4 Silver Max (8-1) - I think this may be the only contender with an upset chance on the lead
E - #Swift Warrior (20-1) - Should get a good trip close to the pace, value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#2 Slim Shady (12-1) - could round out the exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A- 9,8
B - 4
Race Notes-
The only way Point of Entry or Wise Dan get beat is if a horse gets loose on the lead and puts the field to sleep.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 3,5,4 = $6
$0.50 - 9,8 / 3,5,4 / 9,8 = $3
$0.50 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 3,5,4,6 = $4
Race 11 - 1-1/4 miles Kentucky Derby G1 - Action
A - #3 Revolutionary (10-1) - I've like this horse since the Withers, he'll need to work a trip, but he doesn't have to come from way out of it as everyone is suggesting. It would not surprise me to see him sit inside about midpack on the second flight of horses. He's as game as they come and if he can get some daylight turning for home he could prove tough to hold off. Also, Mike Welsch has loved the way he is training.
B - #16 Orb (7/2) - Orb has had no issues leading up to the Derby, and drew really good in post 16. He is probably the most likely winner, but I don't really like the price. Only 4 post time favorites have won in the last 21 years. Still he has every reason to prove he is best in here, not the least of which is that he has been working great according to Mike Welsch.
C - #12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1) - Has been out of sight out of mind, but is doing great according to Welsch. He drew well and is one of an elite crew to have posted a triple digit beyer, and 1 of 2 to have posted 2 triple digit beyers. Very live at a good price.
D - #14 Verrazano (4-1) - Is the other holder of two triple digit beyers and is undefeated. Though his Wood Memorial was not great, the one thing I did like was that he dug in when challenged. If he can get to the lead turning for home, he may be hard to get by. Distance is a question and I view him and Goldencents the same in here, but put Verrazano on top due to the draw.
E - #8 Goldencents (5-1) - Owns the best beyer in a last prep race coming into the Derby. Will have to contend with some other speeds in here and distance could be a question. Still, he didn't look like he was throwing in the towel at the end of the Santa Anita Derby.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Overanalyze (15-1) - I like the way he drew off from the field in the Arkansas Derby, though it was slow, he did come from just off the pace and pulled away from the field. Training well and is live at a price.
#6 Mylute (15-1) - If you like Revolutionary, then you have to like Mylute. Training well and figures to move up on a wet track. Even if he doesn't win, he's another one who could add value in the exotics.
#5 Normandy Invasion (12-1) - Seems to have lost his buzz after the Wood Memorial, but seems to be on his toes. Will be coming late that is for sure.
#18 Frac Daddy (50-1) - Is working great and way under the radar, not sure he can win, but would love him in the exotics at 50-1!
#10 Palace Malice (20-1) - Another one of Todd Pletcher's 15,000 horses in this years Kentucky Derby. Again, I'm not sure he is good enough to win, but love his price in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 3,16,12
B - 14,8,9,6
C - 5,18,10
Race Notes-
There are some really good prices in here that could hit the board in the exotics. Remember that the post time favorite has only won once in the last 21 derbys and was out of the Exacta in 14 of the last 21.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta - if the 3, 16 or 12 run first or second all three exacta's hit, then spreads for value.
$1 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8,9 = $15
$1 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5,18 = $24
$1 - 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5 / 3,16,12 = $21
Trifecta + Exacta Saver
$0.50 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8 / 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5,18,10 = $48
$1 - 3,16,12 / 9,6,5,18,10 - $15
Friday, May 3, 2013
Churchill Downs 5-3-2013 - Kentucky Oaks Day Races 6-11
Updated from scratches 11:41am EST.
Card Notes-
This is a decent card, with several competitive races.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8,9,10,11
$0.50 - 3,9,8,2,14 / 9,6,7 / 4,1,9 / 8,2,4,11 = $90
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 9,6 / 4,1 / 8,2,4 = $6
$0.50 - 9,6,7 / 4,1,9 / 8,2,4,11 = $18
Oaks/Derby Double
$1 - 8,2,4 / 3,16 = $6
$1 - 8,2,4,11 / 3,16,12 = $12
$1 - 8,2,4 / 14,8,9,6,5,18 = $18
$1 - 9 / 3,16,12 = $3
Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3
$0.50 - 8 / 9,8 / 3,16 = $2
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 9,8 / 3,16 = $6
$0.50 - 8,2,4,11 / 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $12
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 9,8 / 14,8,9,6,5,18 = $18
$0.50 - 9 / 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $3
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles La Troienne G2 - Action+
A - #3 More Chocolate (5-1) - class drop, should get some pace help, prob best value
B - #4 Believe You Can (7/5) - runs well at this distance, can probably handle these
C - #2 Authenticity (6-1) - 2 for 2 at distance, small improvement would put her in the mix
D - #5 On Fire Baby (8/5) - Runs well at CD and distance, class drop
E - #1 Imposing Grace (10-1) - should get some pace help
Multi-Race Horses-
3,4,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Edgewood Stakes - Action+
A - #11 Adriani (15-1) - should be just behind the leaders, hoping he can make lead & hold on
B - #5 Birdlover (4-1) - speed horse that can hold out on the Turf, very likely
C - #3 Kitten's Dumplings (4-1) - can close, turf #'s are better than dirt, working well, Maker 23% on Turf
D - #2 Broken Spell (15-1) - turf numbers from 2012 are good, sleeper
E - #4 Judy in Disguise (10-1) - sprinter stretching out, somethings to like, but questions
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Tokyo Time (3-1) - class dropping, not sure he can close enough to get the win
Multi-Race Horses-
11,5,3,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action
A - #3 Blueeyesintherein (8-1) - may sit the right trip with all the speed
B - #9 So Many Ways (6-1) - class dropping, cutting back, like the style with the speed
C - #8 Gold Medal Dancer (15-1) - should get a good trip, will need some pace
D - #2 Fusaichiwonderful (9/2) - speed, how long can she hold on
E - #14 Calistoga (7/2) - outside speed, how far will fade is the question
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,8,2,14
Race Notes-
Plenty of speed in this race, lots of options here.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Alysheba G2 - Action+
A - #9 Cyber Secret (7/2) - race really sets up for, own best beyers, hard to look past
B - #6 Take Charge Indy (4-1) - should be forwardly placed, should be close at the finish
C - #7 Macho Macho (5-1) - pace should help
D - #8 Bourbon Courage (4-1)
E - #4 Hymn Book (3-1) - will be coming late, not sure he'll get there, improves on wet track
Multi-Race Horses-
9,6,7
Race Notes-
Cyber Secret could very well drill these, but a bounce by him would leave this open to a few others.
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles TURF American Turf G2 - Action+
A - #4 Noble Tune (3-1) - I really like this horse, he closes well and is 2 for 2 at the distance
B - #1 Anyriderill Do (12-1) - with the scratch of the other speed, has chance to wire
C - #9 Admiral Kitten (4-1) - like the sire's line, should be around at finish, Maker 23% on Turf
D - #11 Joelito (12-1) - stretching out a little, but can close
E - #5 War Dancer (6-1) - can close
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,1 / 4,1,9,11,5 = $8
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #8 Dreaming of Julia (3-1) - hard to knock, even a 10 pt bounce from her could win, seems on her toes, should get a good trip here
B - #2 Midnight Lucky (9/2) - working well, could be give Julia a run for her money
C - #4 Unlimited Budget (7/2) - may very well sit the right trip behind speed
D - #11 Close Hatches (6-1) - working well, Mott says is going to win
E - #9 Rose to Gold (15-1) - doesn't have to have lead, working well, move up on wet track
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Beholder - back to back G1 wins, 3 G1 wins total, but concerned about speed
Multi-Race Horses-
8,2,4,11
Race Notes-
If Dreaming of Julia doesn't run a step, then there are several in here who could get to the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 = $3
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 / 11,9,3 = $9
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 11,9,3 / 8,2,4,11 = $12
Card Notes-
This is a decent card, with several competitive races.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8,9,10,11
$0.50 - 3,9,8,2,14 / 9,6,7 / 4,1,9 / 8,2,4,11 = $90
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 9,6 / 4,1 / 8,2,4 = $6
$0.50 - 9,6,7 / 4,1,9 / 8,2,4,11 = $18
Oaks/Derby Double
$1 - 8,2,4 / 3,16 = $6
$1 - 8,2,4,11 / 3,16,12 = $12
$1 - 8,2,4 / 14,8,9,6,5,18 = $18
$1 - 9 / 3,16,12 = $3
Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3
$0.50 - 8 / 9,8 / 3,16 = $2
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 9,8 / 3,16 = $6
$0.50 - 8,2,4,11 / 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $12
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 9,8 / 14,8,9,6,5,18 = $18
$0.50 - 9 / 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $3
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles La Troienne G2 - Action+
A - #3 More Chocolate (5-1) - class drop, should get some pace help, prob best value
B - #4 Believe You Can (7/5) - runs well at this distance, can probably handle these
C - #2 Authenticity (6-1) - 2 for 2 at distance, small improvement would put her in the mix
D - #5 On Fire Baby (8/5) - Runs well at CD and distance, class drop
E - #1 Imposing Grace (10-1) - should get some pace help
Multi-Race Horses-
3,4,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Edgewood Stakes - Action+
A - #11 Adriani (15-1) - should be just behind the leaders, hoping he can make lead & hold on
B - #5 Birdlover (4-1) - speed horse that can hold out on the Turf, very likely
C - #3 Kitten's Dumplings (4-1) - can close, turf #'s are better than dirt, working well, Maker 23% on Turf
D - #2 Broken Spell (15-1) - turf numbers from 2012 are good, sleeper
E - #4 Judy in Disguise (10-1) - sprinter stretching out, somethings to like, but questions
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Tokyo Time (3-1) - class dropping, not sure he can close enough to get the win
Multi-Race Horses-
11,5,3,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action
A - #3 Blueeyesintherein (8-1) - may sit the right trip with all the speed
B - #9 So Many Ways (6-1) - class dropping, cutting back, like the style with the speed
C - #8 Gold Medal Dancer (15-1) - should get a good trip, will need some pace
D - #2 Fusaichiwonderful (9/2) - speed, how long can she hold on
E - #14 Calistoga (7/2) - outside speed, how far will fade is the question
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,8,2,14
Race Notes-
Plenty of speed in this race, lots of options here.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Alysheba G2 - Action+
A - #9 Cyber Secret (7/2) - race really sets up for, own best beyers, hard to look past
B - #6 Take Charge Indy (4-1) - should be forwardly placed, should be close at the finish
C - #7 Macho Macho (5-1) - pace should help
D - #8 Bourbon Courage (4-1)
E - #4 Hymn Book (3-1) - will be coming late, not sure he'll get there, improves on wet track
Multi-Race Horses-
9,6,7
Race Notes-
Cyber Secret could very well drill these, but a bounce by him would leave this open to a few others.
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles TURF American Turf G2 - Action+
A - #4 Noble Tune (3-1) - I really like this horse, he closes well and is 2 for 2 at the distance
B - #1 Anyriderill Do (12-1) - with the scratch of the other speed, has chance to wire
C - #9 Admiral Kitten (4-1) - like the sire's line, should be around at finish, Maker 23% on Turf
D - #11 Joelito (12-1) - stretching out a little, but can close
E - #5 War Dancer (6-1) - can close
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,1 / 4,1,9,11,5 = $8
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #8 Dreaming of Julia (3-1) - hard to knock, even a 10 pt bounce from her could win, seems on her toes, should get a good trip here
B - #2 Midnight Lucky (9/2) - working well, could be give Julia a run for her money
C - #4 Unlimited Budget (7/2) - may very well sit the right trip behind speed
D - #11 Close Hatches (6-1) - working well, Mott says is going to win
E - #9 Rose to Gold (15-1) - doesn't have to have lead, working well, move up on wet track
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Beholder - back to back G1 wins, 3 G1 wins total, but concerned about speed
Multi-Race Horses-
8,2,4,11
Race Notes-
If Dreaming of Julia doesn't run a step, then there are several in here who could get to the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 = $3
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 / 11,9,3 = $9
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 11,9,3 / 8,2,4,11 = $12
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