With 12 possibilities at this point for the Preakness, it may prove to be Orb's hardest test. At first I was a little more worried about Orb's running style at Pimlico, that was until I watched the Florida Derby where he sat much closer to the pace. Pimlico is a racetrack where I do a lot of handcapping. The most commonly run 2 turn race at Pimlico is at 1-1/16 miles. I know the Preakness is 1/8 further, but because of the sample size I think it is best to look at the stats for the 1-1/16 mile races to determine what type of horse wins at Pimlico. Out of 180 races, considering all types of track conditions, 78 (43%) raced on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the leader. 60 (33%) raced from within 1.5 lengths to 5 lengths of the leader and 42 (23%) raced 5 lengths or greater off the leader.
I think these numbers show Orb clearly needs to be within 5 lengths of the leaders, much like the trip I'll Have Another had last year. And, once I rewatched his Florida Derby I remembered he had this capability. Also, with the likes of Goldencents, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday and a few others, there seems to be a decent amount of speed. Which should help Orb close the gap in the stretch. Orb needs to break cleanly, getting left behind at the gate is not good at Pimlico. The 2011 Preakness proved that with Animal Kingdom, who got off slowly and left himself too much to do against Shackleford. Also, I think it would help Orb to be drawn 8-11, where he can secure a good stalking position. But, not on the far outside. With the slope towards the outside rail on the Pimlico track, horses in the far outside post tend to exit the gate making a right turn. One of the things I liked about Orb's Kentucky Derby was that he started his move early on the 2nd turn and sustained it to the wire. That should help him in the Preakness where I think he'll need every bit of that to run down the leaders trying to hold on in the stretch.
Also, there doesn't seem to be any horse looking to run away from competing against Orb either. The field seems to be pretty deep, especially in the exotics. Even if you concede the race to Orb, trying to pick the Trifecta, may prove to be a task, but that is what makes it pay! Besides Orb, here are a couple of the most interesting horses to me:
Will Take Charge - Was closing with Orb in the Derby until he was stopped cold by Verrazano, who was backing up sharply. Will Take Charge is a huge horse and once he stops it is next to impossible to get him going again. But to his advantage, he picks up Mike Smith for the Preakness. I'd say Mike knows a thing or two about how to get a big horse in the clear so they can make a sustained run. To me, Will Take Charge is a very interesting canidate in the Preakness.
Normandy Invasion - Took over the lead turning for home in the Derby. Some say he moved too soon...maybe he did, but there is also something to be said for trying to break a race open. And, his trainer Chad Brown thought it was going to be a winning move. Sitting a little closer to the pace and a 1/16 of a mile shorter, he could be tough to hold off, especially in the exotics.
Oxbow - He was the only horse up close to the blazing Derby pace that didn't completely stop. That bodes well for him on a track that rewards those within 5L of the leader. He's a hard knocker, so I look for him to be trying for the lead coming off the turn and then hold Orb and Will Take Charge at bay.
Departing - Of the horses who didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, this one has the most sizzle. And his convincing win in his last start may have been a great prep for the Preakness. May be a live contender and a decent price.
Itsmyluckyday - I've liked this horse from the get go. And, based on the Florida Derby, if you like Orb you have to like Itsmyluckyday. Maybe the Derby wasn't his best day on a wet track and I'm sure the pace had something to do with it as well. Look for him to bounce back with a good performance on a track he should love.
Goldencents - He obviously didn't like the wet track or the blazing pace set by Palace Malice. He'll be up close, if not on the lead and if no one else goes, he could just steal the show. As with any speed at Pimlico, the question becomes, if they don't hold on for the win, how far will they fade? And will it be out of the exotics?
I'll be at Pimlico on both Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Days...and to be honest I can't wait! It should be an exciting race, even if Orb proves much the best. I'll post more thoughts once the field solidifies more.
One more note, I would love to see Pimlico have a Pimlico Special, Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Pick 3!
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