Updated from scratches 11:41am EST.
Card Notes-
This is a decent card, with several competitive races.
My Race Rating System-
I
always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In
some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my
selected
winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider
betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8,9,10,11
$0.50 - 3,9,8,2,14 / 9,6,7 / 4,1,9 / 8,2,4,11 = $90
Pick 3 - Races 9,10,11
$0.50 - 9,6 / 4,1 / 8,2,4 = $6
$0.50 - 9,6,7 / 4,1,9 / 8,2,4,11 = $18
Oaks/Derby Double
$1 - 8,2,4 / 3,16 = $6
$1 - 8,2,4,11 / 3,16,12 = $12
$1 - 8,2,4 / 14,8,9,6,5,18 = $18
$1 - 9 / 3,16,12 = $3
Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3
$0.50 - 8 / 9,8 / 3,16 = $2
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 9,8 / 3,16 = $6
$0.50 - 8,2,4,11 / 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $12
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 9,8 / 14,8,9,6,5,18 = $18
$0.50 - 9 / 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $3
Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles La Troienne G2 - Action+
A - #3 More Chocolate (5-1) - class drop, should get some pace help, prob best value
B - #4 Believe You Can (7/5) - runs well at this distance, can probably handle these
C - #2 Authenticity (6-1) - 2 for 2 at distance, small improvement would put her in the mix
D - #5 On Fire Baby (8/5) - Runs well at CD and distance, class drop
E - #1 Imposing Grace (10-1) - should get some pace help
Multi-Race Horses-
3,4,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles TURF Edgewood Stakes - Action+
A - #11 Adriani (15-1) - should be just behind the leaders, hoping he can make lead & hold on
B - #5 Birdlover (4-1) - speed horse that can hold out on the Turf, very likely
C - #3 Kitten's Dumplings (4-1) - can close, turf #'s are better than dirt, working well, Maker 23% on Turf
D - #2 Broken Spell (15-1) - turf numbers from 2012 are good, sleeper
E - #4 Judy in Disguise (10-1) - sprinter stretching out, somethings to like, but questions
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Tokyo Time (3-1) - class dropping, not sure he can close enough to get the win
Multi-Race Horses-
11,5,3,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action
A - #3 Blueeyesintherein (8-1) - may sit the right trip with all the speed
B - #9 So Many Ways (6-1) - class dropping, cutting back, like the style with the speed
C - #8 Gold Medal Dancer (15-1) - should get a good trip, will need some pace
D - #2 Fusaichiwonderful (9/2) - speed, how long can she hold on
E - #14 Calistoga (7/2) - outside speed, how far will fade is the question
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,8,2,14
Race Notes-
Plenty of speed in this race, lots of options here.
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Alysheba G2 - Action+
A - #9 Cyber Secret (7/2) - race really sets up for, own best beyers, hard to look past
B - #6 Take Charge Indy (4-1) - should be forwardly placed, should be close at the finish
C - #7 Macho Macho (5-1) - pace should help
D - #8 Bourbon Courage (4-1)
E - #4 Hymn Book (3-1) - will be coming late, not sure he'll get there, improves on wet track
Multi-Race Horses-
9,6,7
Race Notes-
Cyber Secret could very well drill these, but a bounce by him would leave this open to a few others.
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/16 miles TURF American Turf G2 - Action+
A - #4 Noble Tune (3-1) - I really like this horse, he closes well and is 2 for 2 at the distance
B - #1 Anyriderill Do (12-1) - with the scratch of the other speed, has chance to wire
C - #9 Admiral Kitten (4-1) - like the sire's line, should be around at finish, Maker 23% on Turf
D - #11 Joelito (12-1) - stretching out a little, but can close
E - #5 War Dancer (6-1) - can close
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1,9
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,1 / 4,1,9,11,5 = $8
Race 11 - 1-1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #8 Dreaming of Julia (3-1) - hard to knock, even a 10 pt bounce from her could win, seems on her toes, should get a good trip here
B - #2 Midnight Lucky (9/2) - working well, could be give Julia a run for her money
C - #4 Unlimited Budget (7/2) - may very well sit the right trip behind speed
D - #11 Close Hatches (6-1) - working well, Mott says is going to win
E - #9 Rose to Gold (15-1) - doesn't have to have lead, working well, move up on wet track
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Beholder - back to back G1 wins, 3 G1 wins total, but concerned about speed
Multi-Race Horses-
8,2,4,11
Race Notes-
If Dreaming of Julia doesn't run a step, then there are several in here who could get to the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 = $3
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 8,2,4 / 11,9,3 = $9
$0.50 - 8,2,4 / 11,9,3 / 8,2,4,11 = $12
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