Kentucky Derby Future Wager - A Good Saver Bet

Over the last 3 years the Kentucky Derby future wager exacta has been the key to my saver bets.  By using the future wager exacta I have been able to recoup my money or in some cases, make money, such as this year and in 2011.  First of all, in the exacta future wager, when betting a horse over the "The Field" you get all the horses not listed in that Pool for a total of $1, instead of the $1 each that you have to play on Kentucky Derby day.  With this in mind, let's analyze this years Pool 1 which was open for wagering from Feb. 8-10.

Pool 1 contained 12 of the 19 horses that actually made it to the Kentucky Derby.  There were seven horses not listed in Pool 1 that also made it to the gate on Derby day, these horses were:  Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Palace Malice, Lines of Battle, Charming Kitten, Orb, Java's War.  Because you can group so many combinations for $1 in the future wager, it frees up money that can be played with on the actual day of the Kentucky Derby.  In the Derby this year there were 342 possible exacta combinations.  By using the exacta future wagers this year, I was able to cover many of these combinations before we even got to the Kentucky Derby.

In Pool 1, I picked 10 horses who were moving forward in their first starts this year or had a good showing in their last starts near end of the year.  These horses were:  Flashback, He's Had Enough, Itsmyluckday, Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze, Oxbow, Revolutionary, Shanghai Bobby, Verrazano and Violence.  I played these horses over The Field and then wheeled The Field back over these horses for a total cost of $20.  Six of my 10 horses made it to the Kentucky Derby.  So, with the six horses in Pool 1 wheeled over and under the seven horses not listed in Pool 1, I covered 84 of the possible 342 possible combinations in the Derby for only $20.  Had you bet these combinations on Derby day it would have cost you the full $84 dollars because you would have to bet each combination.

In Pool 2, I made 5 more bets.  I used only 5 horses this time since the exacta had to be played in a $2 unit.  The horses I used in Pool 2 were:  Goldencents, I've Struck a Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice and Vyjack.  Just as I had done in the previous Pool, I wheeled these horses over and under the field for a total cost of $20.  Of these horses 4 made it to the starting gate on Derby day.  There where 8 horses not listed in Pool 2 that made it to the Derby, they were:  Golden Soul, Mylute, Giant Finish, Lines of Battle, Charming Kitten, Will Take Charge, Frac Daddy and Java's War.  So, from Pool 2 I covered another 64 combinations for a cost of $20.

Now, when it was time to setup my plays on the day of the Kentucky Derby I already had 148 of the possible 342 combinations covered.  And, it was for a little more than a quarter of the cost than if you had bet these same combinations on Derby Day.  I decided to build my Derby day exacta plays around three horses:  Revolutionary, Orb and Itsmyluckday.  Knowing that I had several of the longshots covered in the future wagers I could focus my plays around the horses I thought had the best chance.  Here's how I played the race:

$2 - Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $12

$1 -  Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze = $15

$1 - Revolutionary / Itsmyluckday, Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Frac Daddy, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10

$1 - Orb / Revolutionary, Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion, Palace Malice, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10

$1 - Itsmyluckyday / Revolutionary, Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Frac Daddy, Vyjack, Oxbow = $10

$1 - Normandy Invasion / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $3

$1 - Goldencents, Overanalyze, Mylute, Normandy Invasion, Verrazano / Revolutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday = $15

Total Race Day Exacta Plays:  $75

With these plays I added another 38 combinations to my already 148 from the Derby future wagers.  This brought me to a total of 186 combinations of the 342 possible.  And the best part is, I had more than half the combinations in the race for a fraction of the cost ($115 total cost from future wagers + race day bets).  Plus, I had a few of these plays several times when using my top selections.  But, the exacta future wager gives you one more advantage, adding even more combinations at no cost.  There is a little known rule that if horses from The Field finish both first and second then the exacta looks to the first horse in the order of finish from that Pool to complete the exacta.  That happened this year with Orb and Golden Soul not being listed in Pool 1.  So, the winning exacta from Pool 1 was The Field over Revolutionary.  When you consider this, I had even more combinations covered than my 186 and at no extra cost to me.

Unfortunately, thanks to Golden Soul sliding into second, none of the exacta's I played on race day actually hit, but I wasn't out of luck thanks to the exacta future wagers plays.  Because of the little know rule, I hit The Field over Revolutionary from Pool 1 for a $1 payout of $51.11.  From Pool 2, I caught Orb over The Field for a $2 payout of $207.00.

Future wagers and Race Day wagers cost:  $115
Total Payout of wagers:  $258.11

Though I liked what I was hearing about Golden Soul, I didn't think there would be enough pace for him to close into and I wasn't sure he was better than some of the other mid pack type horses.  But, the fast pace by Palace Malice set things up for all the closers.  Unfortunately, I missed the $490.80 exacta payout for $1 on race day, but a $143.11 profit isn't bad for what I consider a saver wager in the future Pool!

But, it wasn't just this year that the future pool saved me.  In 2012, a future wager in Pool 1 saved me with I'll Have Another over The Field (paying $128.90 for $1) and in 2011 it saved me again with The Field over Mucho Macho Man (since both Nehro and Animal Kingdom were not in Pool 2, it paid $338.20 for $2).  You can bet when Pool 1 opens in February 2014 I'll be looking for ten 3 year olds moving forward to setup my savers for a fraction of the cost!