Sunday, December 2, 2012
Merry Christmas, Happy New Year...See you in February!
I'm taking my usual winter break from handicapping. I'll be back at it in February! So, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and see you in February!
Monday, November 5, 2012
2012 Breeders' Cup Recap
I'll be posting/updating my recap here, but I want to watch all the races again before I put my final thought together. Please check back this weekend, I should have everything posted by then. Also, I'm only recapping the races I posted on my blog. I hope everyone had a good Breeders' Cup.
Friday - see Friday selections
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
It was great to catch Calidoscopio at 17-1, that was about 20% based on the past performances and 80% on what Mike Welsch said about his workouts. This was and oddly run race, Calidoscopio came from so far back that he was actually described as being detached from the field. But his late run starting early on the back stretch was really amazing to watch. Atigun ran a good race and tried to kick away on the far turn only to be run down late stretch. But, then again he is only a 3 year old, so we are likely to see him improve and run well in 2013 in distance races such as the Brooklyn.
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
I've like Zagora all year, but if this race was run again, I'd move Zagora up from my 5th selection, but still pick The Fugue to win. The Fugue was crying out for room to run and was not able to get clear until much too late. I think she could have bested the field if she was in the clear coming off the turn. The other Euro's disappointed. Marketing Mix ran a good race, but she also benefited from The Fugue's traffic troubles.
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
Royal Delta gets my performance of the day. She was unbelievable setting fast fractions and then still putting them away in the stretch. Hats off to Mike Smith giving her a great ride, staying out of her way and knowing that he had plenty of horse even with those fast fractions. Though there were several good horses in here, she was easily the best if she ran her best race. My Miss Aurelia was a good second and Awesome Feather did not run near as well as I thought she would. But it should be said that the race changed when the gates opened and something was obviously wrong with Questing when she didn't break well. That allowed Royal Delta to grab the lead. Still, I don't think Questing would have beaten Royal Delta on that day, but with the way the track was playing she may have hung around in the Exacta or Trifecta.
Saturday - see Saturday selections
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
Groupie Doll lived up to her expectations kicking away coming off the turn. She was very much the best and the race wasn't closed. Dust and Diamonds ran a great run to be second, but was not match for Groupie Doll. Switch continued her Breeders' cup consistency, that is to turn in a not so good work the week before and then run in the money.
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
Tapizar took advantage of Shackleford's horrible start and went straight to the lead, which he shared with Emcee until Tapizar opened up in the stretch. It turned out to be a winning move. Shackleford stumbled at the start, not horribly, just horribly for Shackleford. He needed to break well and be on the lead or stalking very close to the lead, instead the stumble put behind a wall of horses and he used a lot of energy moving up on the outside of the first turn. While the rest of the horses were relaxing as they turned onto the backstretch, Shackleford was still running hard to get into position. As I wrote in my selections this is a 2 turn mile and I believe that made a difference for some horses. Emcee was well placed with every chance, but tailed off in the stretch. Rail Trip was 5 lengths off and ran well while on the inside, but was not match for Tapizar.
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
I have to hand it to Mizdirection and the bettors, they nailed this one. Mike Smith gave Mizdirection a great ride, rolling up on the outside just in time. Reenesgotzip ran a very credible race against the boys, especially for as wide open as this race was. Unbridled's Note looked a winner until Mizdirection ran him down just before the wire. From a betting angle, there was a lot of value in the Exacta. You had to spend money and spread or play it small and hope you where right.
Please check back, more to come...
Friday - see Friday selections
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
It was great to catch Calidoscopio at 17-1, that was about 20% based on the past performances and 80% on what Mike Welsch said about his workouts. This was and oddly run race, Calidoscopio came from so far back that he was actually described as being detached from the field. But his late run starting early on the back stretch was really amazing to watch. Atigun ran a good race and tried to kick away on the far turn only to be run down late stretch. But, then again he is only a 3 year old, so we are likely to see him improve and run well in 2013 in distance races such as the Brooklyn.
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
I've like Zagora all year, but if this race was run again, I'd move Zagora up from my 5th selection, but still pick The Fugue to win. The Fugue was crying out for room to run and was not able to get clear until much too late. I think she could have bested the field if she was in the clear coming off the turn. The other Euro's disappointed. Marketing Mix ran a good race, but she also benefited from The Fugue's traffic troubles.
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
Royal Delta gets my performance of the day. She was unbelievable setting fast fractions and then still putting them away in the stretch. Hats off to Mike Smith giving her a great ride, staying out of her way and knowing that he had plenty of horse even with those fast fractions. Though there were several good horses in here, she was easily the best if she ran her best race. My Miss Aurelia was a good second and Awesome Feather did not run near as well as I thought she would. But it should be said that the race changed when the gates opened and something was obviously wrong with Questing when she didn't break well. That allowed Royal Delta to grab the lead. Still, I don't think Questing would have beaten Royal Delta on that day, but with the way the track was playing she may have hung around in the Exacta or Trifecta.
Saturday - see Saturday selections
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
Groupie Doll lived up to her expectations kicking away coming off the turn. She was very much the best and the race wasn't closed. Dust and Diamonds ran a great run to be second, but was not match for Groupie Doll. Switch continued her Breeders' cup consistency, that is to turn in a not so good work the week before and then run in the money.
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
Tapizar took advantage of Shackleford's horrible start and went straight to the lead, which he shared with Emcee until Tapizar opened up in the stretch. It turned out to be a winning move. Shackleford stumbled at the start, not horribly, just horribly for Shackleford. He needed to break well and be on the lead or stalking very close to the lead, instead the stumble put behind a wall of horses and he used a lot of energy moving up on the outside of the first turn. While the rest of the horses were relaxing as they turned onto the backstretch, Shackleford was still running hard to get into position. As I wrote in my selections this is a 2 turn mile and I believe that made a difference for some horses. Emcee was well placed with every chance, but tailed off in the stretch. Rail Trip was 5 lengths off and ran well while on the inside, but was not match for Tapizar.
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
I have to hand it to Mizdirection and the bettors, they nailed this one. Mike Smith gave Mizdirection a great ride, rolling up on the outside just in time. Reenesgotzip ran a very credible race against the boys, especially for as wide open as this race was. Unbridled's Note looked a winner until Mizdirection ran him down just before the wire. From a betting angle, there was a lot of value in the Exacta. You had to spend money and spread or play it small and hope you where right.
Please check back, more to come...
Saturday, November 3, 2012
2012 Breeders' Cup Saturday Selections
Updated for scratches.
Saturday 11-3-2012 - Santa Anita
Multi-Race Plays
Pick 6 - Races 7,8,9,10,11,12 - $2 Minimum
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $1152.00
- OR -
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $2304.00
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12 - $0.50 Minimum
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $24
- OR -
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $48
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
A - #9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Outclasses field, Welsch loved 10/29 work, good post - Winner $3.40
B - #3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2) - Maybe lone speed in race, will have to hold off Groupie Doll - Second
C - #8 Musical Romance (4-1) - Like the work pattern, will sit close to pace, good Exacta/Trifecta chance
D - #6 Turbulent Descent (5-1) - 4 of 6 at 7f, has some upside, but only for exotics
E - #10 Switch (10-1) - may represent the only value in this race for exotics - Third
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Teddy's Promise (20-1) - would be a good add-on in Trifecta/Superfecta, owns a G1 win at SA at 7f
Multi-Race Horses-
#9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Would be a single if you need one
#3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2)
Race Notes-
I think there are two minor (and I stress minor) things that could open Groupie Doll up to being beat. First, shipping to SA and how will she handle the surface, but she has shipped a little and been ok. Second, could be a pace scenerio where Dust and Diamonds movies forward and steals the lead. I think this is the mostly likely scenerio if Groupie Doll gets beat, but again I think that is a small chance. The rest are all running for 2nd or 3rd. I heard Asmussen said, "I don't think I can beat Groupie Doll".
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$10 - 9/3 = $10 - Hit $60.00
$5 - 9/8,6 = $10
$5 - 3/9 = $5
$2 - 9/10
Trifecta
$3 - 9/3,8,6/3,8,6 = $18
$1 - 9/3,8,6/10,1 = $6 - Hit $43.10
$.50 - 9/10,1/3,8,6 = $3
$.50 - 3/9/8,6,10,1 = $2
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - I think he'll like the cut back, Mike Welsch liked last work, can sit behind speed
B - #7 Emcee (5/2) - Sensational 10/19 work, should get good trip, never been 2 turns, good beyer #'s
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1) - seems to have bounced back, has won G1 around 2 turns, tough it at best
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1) - could sit a good trip just behind speed, rounds out top contenders
E - #4 John Scott (12-1) - Welsch-last work not fast but visually appealing, exotics value, style could help
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Rail Trip (10-1) - seems to be a little better on Syn, but a good trip could put him in mix, value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1)
B - #7 Emcee (5/2)
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1)
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1)
Race Notes-
The 2 turns makes this mile interesting. Most of these east coast horses run 1 mile around 1 turn and some of these have never been 2 turns. Shackleford has won a G1 classic around 2 turns which is appealing, but still not on his best recently. Mike Welsch said he seems to working better than better. Fed Biz can stalk and win. Welsch said he really left a favorable impression in work. Baffert usually has them ready. Emcee has never been 2 turns, but owns some great beyers at 7f. How will the speed affect him is the question. Satish said "unload on him". Jersey Town usually brings his A game, but not sure it will be good enough here. Still a speed melt down could put him on the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta
$1 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/5,7,6,3 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/4,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7,6/4,3,1/5,7,6 = $9
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1) - Welsch loved her work, will have to over come other speed, but seems ready, value - Third
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - Drawn outside and should sit the right trip, has won on course, good work, right style - Second
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1) - Interesting on cut back, Welsch-great gallop, was dragging rider, right style
D - #1 California Flag (6-1) - Loves this downhill course, tough post, Welsch-looks good, hasn't lost much
E - #4 Tale of a Champion (30-1) - Not crazy about post, Welsch-worked well and galloped out nicely
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Bridgetown (9/2) - may want to use in Exacta and Trifecta
#2 Camp Victory (10-1) - offers value and style should help with all the speed
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1)
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1)
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1)
D - #1 California Flag (6-1)
Race Notes-
Lots of speed in here and a collapse is entirely possible, still if Reenesgotzip can clear she seems ready. Like Unbridled's Note and Corporate Jungle coming from just off the pace. If you hit in the exotics, if figures to pay.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $24
Trifecta & Exacta Combo
$0.50 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $40
$1 - 7,13,10,1/9,2 = $8
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2) - Should get a good position, has been 2 turns, like that he has won at SA
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1) - Going for the Baffert Exacta, owns a win at SA, working well
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1) - Working great, but fear shipping will hurt chances, could very well win - Winner
D - #7 Capo Bastone (15-1) - Seems to be working ok, offers value - Third
E - #6 Dynamic Sky (12-1) - Nearly won a G1 at Kee last out, offers value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#8 Fortify (9/2) - may slide into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2)
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1)
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1)
Race Notes-
Top 3 seem much the best and I wouldn't look to far past them for winner. May be able to hook them up with some value horses in exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$1 - 9,1,4/7,6,8 - $9
Trifecta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$0.50 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/7,6,8 = $9
$0.50 - 9,1,4/7,6,8/9,1,4 = $9
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1
A - #5 Shareta (7/2) - Has impressed Welsch in works, like the recent G1 wins, drawn better than SNA
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1) - Seems to be in great form, Welsch-couldn't be doing better, will need trip - Second
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2) - Won this last year, serious contender - Third
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1) - Good race last out at SA, should move fwd, looked good galloping, post concern
E - #11 Slim Shady (10-1) - Has run well at longer distance at SA, some value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#4 Treasure Beach (12-1) - could very well mix up exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Shareta (7/2)
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1)
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2)
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's and Point of Entry will own this race. All others are running to fill out the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 5,1,3/5,1,3 = $12
$1 - 5,1,3/12,11,4 = $9
Trifecta
$1 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/5,1,3,12 = $12
$0.50 - 5,1,3/12/5,1,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/11,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/11,4/5,1,3 = $6
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1) - Good post, seems to be working ok, if can clear field could go all the way - Winner $29.40
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1) - Planning on going to lead, off layoff but works suggest Baffert has him ready
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1) - Welsch-bounced back with good work, blow out looked good
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1) - Ran well last out, working well
E - #4 Coil (5-1) - Not sure he can win, but always seems to be among the contenders turning for home.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 The Lumber Guy (6-1) - Good horse, had to split hairs here
#5 Justin Phillip (20-1) - Extreme value if goes off at this price, esp. in exotics
#8 Capital Account (8-1) - Could get into exotics, esp. the Superfecta
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1)
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1)
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1)
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1)
Race Notes-
This race is a complete toss up amongst 8 horses, but that could make it a great betting race. Hoping Baffert has Fast Bullet ready and Trinniberg clears the field. Not sure it is worth looking past the top 4 for multi-race wagerings because you'd have to spend a lot of money.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 9,6,11,2/9,6,11,2,4 = $12
$1 - 6,9,11/7 = $3 - Hit $101.70
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1) - This Euro as won or almost won 3 G1 at top tracks, drawn well
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1) - 4 losses came to Frankel, got a little washed out in routine gallop
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5) - Welsch said is working like a monster, dragged rider in SA turf work - Winner
D - #3 Obviously (6-1) - A small chance he could still on front end, but may not fade out of exotics - Third
E - #5 Animal Kingdom (8-1) - Looks great and Motion places horses well, getting 8-1 on a derby winner - Second
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
None
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1)
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1)
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5)
Race Notes-
Should be within the top 3 and likely the exacta and trifecta. Obviously, has a chance to steal on front end so may want to play to protect that. I didn't include Animal Kingdom in my multi-race horses and I will be kicking myself if for not including a Derby winner if he wins.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta w/ Exacta Saver
$2 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/9,6,2 = $12
$0.50 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/3,5 = $6
$0.50 = 9,6,2/3,5/9,6,2 = $6
$1 - 3/9,6,2 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic G1
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5) - Has been working great, loves SA, has won at 1-1/4, very game horse
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1) - Would love to think we could get 8-1 on this horse, working and looks great - Second
C - #4 Fort Larned (5-1) - Was working good in KY, very strong contender but will need very best - Winner
D - #10 Ron the Greek (6-1) - Owns a win at 1-1/4 miles on this track, always comes running
E - #8 Nonios (20-1) - One of two best exotic value in the race, working great, good race at SA last out
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Pool Play (30-1) - Great value for exotics, 2 for 2 on dirt, both time triple digit beyers
#2 Flat Out (5-1) - Working good, always hangs around, but he scares me
#12 To Honor and Serve (8-1) - Could very well mix up exotics, not sure he is as good as top 2
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5)
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1)
Race Notes-
If I go past the top 2 horses in the Multi-race picks, then I will need to take 8 horses. I really think Game on Dude will take this and if not Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith should be waiting to take over. Nonios and Pool Play are great values for the Exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$4 - 5/11,4 = $10
$4 - 11/5 = $4
$2 - 11/4 = $2
$2 - 5,11/10 =$4
$1 - 5,11/8,1 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 5/11,4,10,8/11,4,10,8 = $12
$0.50 - 5/11,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
$1 - 11/5/4,10,8 = $3
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/5,4,10,8 = $6
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
Saturday 11-3-2012 - Santa Anita
Multi-Race Plays
Pick 6 - Races 7,8,9,10,11,12 - $2 Minimum
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $1152.00
- OR -
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $2304.00
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12 - $0.50 Minimum
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $24
- OR -
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $48
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
A - #9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Outclasses field, Welsch loved 10/29 work, good post - Winner $3.40
B - #3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2) - Maybe lone speed in race, will have to hold off Groupie Doll - Second
C - #8 Musical Romance (4-1) - Like the work pattern, will sit close to pace, good Exacta/Trifecta chance
D - #6 Turbulent Descent (5-1) - 4 of 6 at 7f, has some upside, but only for exotics
E - #10 Switch (10-1) - may represent the only value in this race for exotics - Third
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Teddy's Promise (20-1) - would be a good add-on in Trifecta/Superfecta, owns a G1 win at SA at 7f
Multi-Race Horses-
#9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Would be a single if you need one
#3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2)
Race Notes-
I think there are two minor (and I stress minor) things that could open Groupie Doll up to being beat. First, shipping to SA and how will she handle the surface, but she has shipped a little and been ok. Second, could be a pace scenerio where Dust and Diamonds movies forward and steals the lead. I think this is the mostly likely scenerio if Groupie Doll gets beat, but again I think that is a small chance. The rest are all running for 2nd or 3rd. I heard Asmussen said, "I don't think I can beat Groupie Doll".
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$10 - 9/3 = $10 - Hit $60.00
$5 - 9/8,6 = $10
$5 - 3/9 = $5
$2 - 9/10
Trifecta
$3 - 9/3,8,6/3,8,6 = $18
$1 - 9/3,8,6/10,1 = $6 - Hit $43.10
$.50 - 9/10,1/3,8,6 = $3
$.50 - 3/9/8,6,10,1 = $2
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - I think he'll like the cut back, Mike Welsch liked last work, can sit behind speed
B - #7 Emcee (5/2) - Sensational 10/19 work, should get good trip, never been 2 turns, good beyer #'s
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1) - seems to have bounced back, has won G1 around 2 turns, tough it at best
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1) - could sit a good trip just behind speed, rounds out top contenders
E - #4 John Scott (12-1) - Welsch-last work not fast but visually appealing, exotics value, style could help
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Rail Trip (10-1) - seems to be a little better on Syn, but a good trip could put him in mix, value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1)
B - #7 Emcee (5/2)
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1)
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1)
Race Notes-
The 2 turns makes this mile interesting. Most of these east coast horses run 1 mile around 1 turn and some of these have never been 2 turns. Shackleford has won a G1 classic around 2 turns which is appealing, but still not on his best recently. Mike Welsch said he seems to working better than better. Fed Biz can stalk and win. Welsch said he really left a favorable impression in work. Baffert usually has them ready. Emcee has never been 2 turns, but owns some great beyers at 7f. How will the speed affect him is the question. Satish said "unload on him". Jersey Town usually brings his A game, but not sure it will be good enough here. Still a speed melt down could put him on the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta
$1 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/5,7,6,3 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/4,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7,6/4,3,1/5,7,6 = $9
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1) - Welsch loved her work, will have to over come other speed, but seems ready, value - Third
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - Drawn outside and should sit the right trip, has won on course, good work, right style - Second
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1) - Interesting on cut back, Welsch-great gallop, was dragging rider, right style
D - #1 California Flag (6-1) - Loves this downhill course, tough post, Welsch-looks good, hasn't lost much
E - #4 Tale of a Champion (30-1) - Not crazy about post, Welsch-worked well and galloped out nicely
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Bridgetown (9/2) - may want to use in Exacta and Trifecta
#2 Camp Victory (10-1) - offers value and style should help with all the speed
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1)
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1)
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1)
D - #1 California Flag (6-1)
Race Notes-
Lots of speed in here and a collapse is entirely possible, still if Reenesgotzip can clear she seems ready. Like Unbridled's Note and Corporate Jungle coming from just off the pace. If you hit in the exotics, if figures to pay.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $24
Trifecta & Exacta Combo
$0.50 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $40
$1 - 7,13,10,1/9,2 = $8
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2) - Should get a good position, has been 2 turns, like that he has won at SA
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1) - Going for the Baffert Exacta, owns a win at SA, working well
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1) - Working great, but fear shipping will hurt chances, could very well win - Winner
D - #7 Capo Bastone (15-1) - Seems to be working ok, offers value - Third
E - #6 Dynamic Sky (12-1) - Nearly won a G1 at Kee last out, offers value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#8 Fortify (9/2) - may slide into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2)
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1)
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1)
Race Notes-
Top 3 seem much the best and I wouldn't look to far past them for winner. May be able to hook them up with some value horses in exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$1 - 9,1,4/7,6,8 - $9
Trifecta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$0.50 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/7,6,8 = $9
$0.50 - 9,1,4/7,6,8/9,1,4 = $9
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1
A - #5 Shareta (7/2) - Has impressed Welsch in works, like the recent G1 wins, drawn better than SNA
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1) - Seems to be in great form, Welsch-couldn't be doing better, will need trip - Second
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2) - Won this last year, serious contender - Third
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1) - Good race last out at SA, should move fwd, looked good galloping, post concern
E - #11 Slim Shady (10-1) - Has run well at longer distance at SA, some value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#4 Treasure Beach (12-1) - could very well mix up exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Shareta (7/2)
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1)
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2)
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's and Point of Entry will own this race. All others are running to fill out the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 5,1,3/5,1,3 = $12
$1 - 5,1,3/12,11,4 = $9
Trifecta
$1 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/5,1,3,12 = $12
$0.50 - 5,1,3/12/5,1,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/11,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/11,4/5,1,3 = $6
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1) - Good post, seems to be working ok, if can clear field could go all the way - Winner $29.40
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1) - Planning on going to lead, off layoff but works suggest Baffert has him ready
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1) - Welsch-bounced back with good work, blow out looked good
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1) - Ran well last out, working well
E - #4 Coil (5-1) - Not sure he can win, but always seems to be among the contenders turning for home.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 The Lumber Guy (6-1) - Good horse, had to split hairs here
#5 Justin Phillip (20-1) - Extreme value if goes off at this price, esp. in exotics
#8 Capital Account (8-1) - Could get into exotics, esp. the Superfecta
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1)
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1)
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1)
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1)
Race Notes-
This race is a complete toss up amongst 8 horses, but that could make it a great betting race. Hoping Baffert has Fast Bullet ready and Trinniberg clears the field. Not sure it is worth looking past the top 4 for multi-race wagerings because you'd have to spend a lot of money.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 9,6,11,2/9,6,11,2,4 = $12
$1 - 6,9,11/7 = $3 - Hit $101.70
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1) - This Euro as won or almost won 3 G1 at top tracks, drawn well
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1) - 4 losses came to Frankel, got a little washed out in routine gallop
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5) - Welsch said is working like a monster, dragged rider in SA turf work - Winner
D - #3 Obviously (6-1) - A small chance he could still on front end, but may not fade out of exotics - Third
E - #5 Animal Kingdom (8-1) - Looks great and Motion places horses well, getting 8-1 on a derby winner - Second
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
None
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1)
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1)
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5)
Race Notes-
Should be within the top 3 and likely the exacta and trifecta. Obviously, has a chance to steal on front end so may want to play to protect that. I didn't include Animal Kingdom in my multi-race horses and I will be kicking myself if for not including a Derby winner if he wins.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta w/ Exacta Saver
$2 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/9,6,2 = $12
$0.50 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/3,5 = $6
$0.50 = 9,6,2/3,5/9,6,2 = $6
$1 - 3/9,6,2 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic G1
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5) - Has been working great, loves SA, has won at 1-1/4, very game horse
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1) - Would love to think we could get 8-1 on this horse, working and looks great - Second
C - #4 Fort Larned (5-1) - Was working good in KY, very strong contender but will need very best - Winner
D - #10 Ron the Greek (6-1) - Owns a win at 1-1/4 miles on this track, always comes running
E - #8 Nonios (20-1) - One of two best exotic value in the race, working great, good race at SA last out
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Pool Play (30-1) - Great value for exotics, 2 for 2 on dirt, both time triple digit beyers
#2 Flat Out (5-1) - Working good, always hangs around, but he scares me
#12 To Honor and Serve (8-1) - Could very well mix up exotics, not sure he is as good as top 2
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5)
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1)
Race Notes-
If I go past the top 2 horses in the Multi-race picks, then I will need to take 8 horses. I really think Game on Dude will take this and if not Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith should be waiting to take over. Nonios and Pool Play are great values for the Exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$4 - 5/11,4 = $10
$4 - 11/5 = $4
$2 - 11/4 = $2
$2 - 5,11/10 =$4
$1 - 5,11/8,1 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 5/11,4,10,8/11,4,10,8 = $12
$0.50 - 5/11,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
$1 - 11/5/4,10,8 = $3
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/5,4,10,8 = $6
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
Thursday, November 1, 2012
2012 Breeders' Cup Friday Selections
This is where I'll be posting & updating Breeders' Cup Friday selections. Suggested Plays will be updated on race day after the scratches come out. Check back I'm still handicapping, more to come...
Updated for Scratches.
Friday 11-2-2012 - Santa Anita
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
A - #6 Calidoscopio (8-1) - Mike Welsch has been high on this horse, has won at long distance on dirt - Winner $36.40
B - #10 Eldaafar (8-1) - Won this in 2010, seems to be in good form which makes him a contender
C - #1 Atigun (9/2) - should get this distance, but not sure he is better than top 2 - Third
D - #2 Fame and Glory (5-1) - Will get this distances, but has only run on Turf, should add some value
E - #7 Not Abroad (5-1) - May sit a good trip, view about the same as Atigun
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#5 Jaycito (6-1) - Like the horse, but distance maybe a questions, needs to prove to me
#14 Juniper Pass (30-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles at SA and 1-3/4 on Turf, great value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Calidoscopio (8-1)
#10 Eldaafar (8-1)
#1 Atigun (9/2)
#2 Fame and Glory (5-1)
Race Notes-
I feel fairly comfortable with my top 2, but this is the marathon so strange things can happen. There is a real possibility to be able to spread here in the Exacta. There will be tons of value in the Trifecta, but you may need to play small or spend a lot of money to be right. Really going for and hoping for the value to be in the Exacta. Crazy things happen in the Marathon.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 6,10,1/6,10,1 = $12
$1 - 6,10,1/2,7,5,14 - $12
$1 - 7,2/6,10,1 = $6
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
A - #4 The Fugue (7/2) - Heard a lot of good about this horse, will get dist, was pointed for this race - Third
B - #10 Ridasiyna (4-1) - Seems to be moving fwd at right time, post maybe slight issue
C - #8 Nahrain (6-1) - should get a good trip, ran well in G1 last out at Bel
D - #9 Marketing Mix (9/2) - Owns a win in G1 at SA at 1-1/4 miles, 2 of 3 at distance, always A effort - Second
E - #2 Zagora (8-1) - Good horse, but in tough here, could mix up Exacta or Trifecta, view same as Marketing Mix - Winner
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#6 Lady of Shamrock (12-1) - Like the longer works and have heard good things, will add value to exotics.
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 The Fugue (7/2)
#10 Ridasiyna (4-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's will be hard to beat in here. Zagora and Lady of Shamrock will offer some value if they can break into the exotics. I really think Zagora and Marketing mix are about the same horse and should be played that way when betting.
Suggested Plays
Exacta
$5 - 4,10/4,10 = $10
$2 - 4,10/8,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,9,2/4,10 = $6
$1 - 4,10/6 = $2
Trifecta
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9/4,10,8,9 = $12
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/4,10,8,9,2 = $24
$0.50 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/6 = $4
$0.50 - 4,10/6/4,10,8,9,2 = $4
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
A - #6 Royal Delta (9/5) - Easily best with close to top effort, tough spot but can handle these - Winner $5.40
B - #4 Questing (4-1) - Other speed in race, but should try to run them off their feet, like in Alabama
C - #5 Awesome Feather (3-1) - Really good horse, but haven't face this tough before
D - #1 Grace Hall (10-1) - Could very well pick up pieces of a speed dual, value in a strong horse
E - #8 Love and Pride (8-1) - Will have to deal with Questing on front end, like the recent race at SA
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#2 My Miss Aurelia (4-1) - Great horse, but hasn't won at 1-1/8 miles, up against it, move fwd possible
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Royal Delta (9/5)
#4 Questing (4-1)
#5 Awesome Feather (3-1)
Race Notes-
Royal Delta should be best in here and if she runs her best she should cross the wire in front. But there are a lot of nice horses in this race and the winner will have to be on their best. I see a real possibility where Questing runs them off their feet and/or steals this on the front end. Also, Awesome Feather hasn't faced this tough, but we really don't know how good she is, so she may just run away from these. Grace Hall could very well win this race, but I think something would have to go wrong for a few of the top 3 and Royal Delta will probably get first run on Grace Hall.
Suggested Plays:
Special Daily Double - Ladies Classic & Breeders' Cup Classic
$5 - 6 (Royal Delta) / 5 (Game on Dude) = $5
$2 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 5 (Game on Dude), 11 (Mucho Macho Man) = $12
$1 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 4 (Fort Larned), 10 (Ron the Greek) = $6 - Hit $31.50
Exacta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/1,8,2 = $9 - Hit $15.20
Trifecta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/1,8,2 = $18
$0.50 - 6,4,5/1,8,2/6,4,5 = $9
$0.50 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/7 = $3
Updated for Scratches.
Friday 11-2-2012 - Santa Anita
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
A - #6 Calidoscopio (8-1) - Mike Welsch has been high on this horse, has won at long distance on dirt - Winner $36.40
B - #10 Eldaafar (8-1) - Won this in 2010, seems to be in good form which makes him a contender
C - #1 Atigun (9/2) - should get this distance, but not sure he is better than top 2 - Third
D - #2 Fame and Glory (5-1) - Will get this distances, but has only run on Turf, should add some value
E - #7 Not Abroad (5-1) - May sit a good trip, view about the same as Atigun
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#5 Jaycito (6-1) - Like the horse, but distance maybe a questions, needs to prove to me
#14 Juniper Pass (30-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles at SA and 1-3/4 on Turf, great value in exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Calidoscopio (8-1)
#10 Eldaafar (8-1)
#1 Atigun (9/2)
#2 Fame and Glory (5-1)
Race Notes-
I feel fairly comfortable with my top 2, but this is the marathon so strange things can happen. There is a real possibility to be able to spread here in the Exacta. There will be tons of value in the Trifecta, but you may need to play small or spend a lot of money to be right. Really going for and hoping for the value to be in the Exacta. Crazy things happen in the Marathon.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 6,10,1/6,10,1 = $12
$1 - 6,10,1/2,7,5,14 - $12
$1 - 7,2/6,10,1 = $6
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
A - #4 The Fugue (7/2) - Heard a lot of good about this horse, will get dist, was pointed for this race - Third
B - #10 Ridasiyna (4-1) - Seems to be moving fwd at right time, post maybe slight issue
C - #8 Nahrain (6-1) - should get a good trip, ran well in G1 last out at Bel
D - #9 Marketing Mix (9/2) - Owns a win in G1 at SA at 1-1/4 miles, 2 of 3 at distance, always A effort - Second
E - #2 Zagora (8-1) - Good horse, but in tough here, could mix up Exacta or Trifecta, view same as Marketing Mix - Winner
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#6 Lady of Shamrock (12-1) - Like the longer works and have heard good things, will add value to exotics.
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 The Fugue (7/2)
#10 Ridasiyna (4-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's will be hard to beat in here. Zagora and Lady of Shamrock will offer some value if they can break into the exotics. I really think Zagora and Marketing mix are about the same horse and should be played that way when betting.
Suggested Plays
Exacta
$5 - 4,10/4,10 = $10
$2 - 4,10/8,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,9,2/4,10 = $6
$1 - 4,10/6 = $2
Trifecta
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9/4,10,8,9 = $12
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/4,10,8,9,2 = $24
$0.50 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/6 = $4
$0.50 - 4,10/6/4,10,8,9,2 = $4
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
A - #6 Royal Delta (9/5) - Easily best with close to top effort, tough spot but can handle these - Winner $5.40
B - #4 Questing (4-1) - Other speed in race, but should try to run them off their feet, like in Alabama
C - #5 Awesome Feather (3-1) - Really good horse, but haven't face this tough before
D - #1 Grace Hall (10-1) - Could very well pick up pieces of a speed dual, value in a strong horse
E - #8 Love and Pride (8-1) - Will have to deal with Questing on front end, like the recent race at SA
Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#2 My Miss Aurelia (4-1) - Great horse, but hasn't won at 1-1/8 miles, up against it, move fwd possible
Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Royal Delta (9/5)
#4 Questing (4-1)
#5 Awesome Feather (3-1)
Race Notes-
Royal Delta should be best in here and if she runs her best she should cross the wire in front. But there are a lot of nice horses in this race and the winner will have to be on their best. I see a real possibility where Questing runs them off their feet and/or steals this on the front end. Also, Awesome Feather hasn't faced this tough, but we really don't know how good she is, so she may just run away from these. Grace Hall could very well win this race, but I think something would have to go wrong for a few of the top 3 and Royal Delta will probably get first run on Grace Hall.
Suggested Plays:
Special Daily Double - Ladies Classic & Breeders' Cup Classic
$5 - 6 (Royal Delta) / 5 (Game on Dude) = $5
$2 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 5 (Game on Dude), 11 (Mucho Macho Man) = $12
$1 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 4 (Fort Larned), 10 (Ron the Greek) = $6 - Hit $31.50
Exacta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/1,8,2 = $9 - Hit $15.20
Trifecta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/1,8,2 = $18
$0.50 - 6,4,5/1,8,2/6,4,5 = $9
$0.50 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/7 = $3
2012 Breeders' Cup Workouts
Mike Welsch 11-1-2012 from At the Races with Steve Byk & Tweets
Game on Dude - Very, Very good. Exceptional. Looks great. His race to lose.
Fort Larned - Heard good things from his works in KY
Royal Delta - 11/1 looked good galloping, was touting herself at Belmont park, surface question and tough field
My Miss Aurelia - Easy 1/2 in :48, but would be surprised if won
Awesome Feather - has looked exceptional, last work in NY was very, very good
Power Broker & Title Contender - Both worked very well
Shanghi Bobby - worked great back in NY, exceptional, on top of his game
Lady of Shamrock - Thought work was average, best part of work was gallop out, but turf horse working on dirt
The Fugue - looked best of Euro's that he had seen
Fast Bullet - nice 5f work, intention is to go for lead
Amazombie - blew out Thursday morning, thinks he will run better than last out
Wise Dan - 11/1 was dragging rider, looks AWESOME
Mucho Macho Man - Love the way he worked in NY, 11/1 easy gallop, looked nice and relaxed, very comfortable over track
Corporate Jungle - 11/1 full of run this morning and then some
Excelebration - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
Fame and Glory - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
St. Nicholas Abbey - just fine
Game on Dude - Very, Very good. Exceptional. Looks great. His race to lose.
Fort Larned - Heard good things from his works in KY
Royal Delta - 11/1 looked good galloping, was touting herself at Belmont park, surface question and tough field
My Miss Aurelia - Easy 1/2 in :48, but would be surprised if won
Awesome Feather - has looked exceptional, last work in NY was very, very good
Power Broker & Title Contender - Both worked very well
Shanghi Bobby - worked great back in NY, exceptional, on top of his game
Lady of Shamrock - Thought work was average, best part of work was gallop out, but turf horse working on dirt
The Fugue - looked best of Euro's that he had seen
Fast Bullet - nice 5f work, intention is to go for lead
Amazombie - blew out Thursday morning, thinks he will run better than last out
Wise Dan - 11/1 was dragging rider, looks AWESOME
Mucho Macho Man - Love the way he worked in NY, 11/1 easy gallop, looked nice and relaxed, very comfortable over track
Corporate Jungle - 11/1 full of run this morning and then some
Excelebration - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
Fame and Glory - 11/1 got a little hot in first visit to track
St. Nicholas Abbey - just fine
Monday 10-29-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Main Track - Course a little loose, not as fast as over the weekend
Work of the Day
Groupie Doll - showed why she is going to be the favorite, did it easily, 11 2/5 first 1/8, hooked up with Richard's Kid grabbed the bit, pulled away, very strong gallop very easily, definitely her race to lose
Tapizar - seemed rank, 48 4/5
Unbridled's Note - relaxed, 50 1/5, just an easy work
Dust and Diamonds - Welsch interested in, similar to Unbridled's Note work
Justin Phillip - Best of 5 Asmussen horses, finished 23 4/5 all on his own
Great Mills - seemed on the muscle, but settled, got a little tired coming home, but not too bad
Rumor - quick 3/8 in 34 4/5, a little head strong early, looked very sharp
Calidoscopio - 5f in company all the way around 1:01 1/5, was carried out by other horse, finished up average, but not under a lot of pressure, but not a great gallop out, not as good as yesterday
Nancy O - didn't like
Jaycito - went in company, broke off behind, quickly caught workmate, but tired some in stretch
Handsome Mike - looked great, did it easily
Alpha - great appearance, love the way he looked, best looking galloper this morning
Sunday 10-28-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Main Track - Fast - times a little quicker today than Friday
Game on Dude - brilliant 6f 1:13 1/5, easy, strong gallop
Fed Biz - 5f 1:00 1/5, galloped out well, sneaky player
Fast Bullet - was just cruising easy as can be, galloped out well, sneaky player off layoff
Coil - Caught Capital Account 48 3/5, maintenance work
Capital Account - 48 3/5, maintenance work, about the same as Coil
Contested - Big speed, seemed a little tired at end :59 flat
My Miss Aurelia - maintenance work, evenly :48 for 1/2, relax nicely, beautiful maintenance work, seemed like the wanted to do more, key contender, top form
Class Included - went really well, :47 2/5, galloped out well, really impressed, too bad she is in such strong field
Slim Shady - did not like, but working on dirt and going to run on grass, really tired down lane, no gallop out
Calidoscopio - dragged rider, looked tremendous, could be really dangerous, grabbed bit when saw another horse *Welsch really impressed, maybe good bet
California Flag - Looked like a winner, 46 2/5, just cruising, maintainng form, looked good
Tale of a Champion - 47 1/5, striding out well, looked good
Saturday 10-27-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Turf - Firm Dogs Out
Works of the Day-
Main Track - Super Ninety Nine - 5f :59 2/5
Turf Track - Reenesgotzip - 5f :59 2/5 - broke off 3L behind, finished full of run, sitting chilly, galloped out best of all bc workers for the day
Workouts
Dullahan - 5f Dirt 1:00 - 22 4/5 opening, may have gone too fast early, average work
Shackleford - Looked much better than before Forego (when scratched), first 3/8 in :35
Executive Privilage - not impressed, struggled during latter stages of work, dissappointing for favorite
Love and Pride - 48 3/5, better of pair, liked the way she went, final 1/4 23 4/5
Switch - 1:11.58, but didn't like the way she did it, rider really had to get into her, nothing left *ran 2nd in last two BC after not working well
Second City - 6f 1:13 3/5, but did it comfortably, well in hand, nice work
Trinniberg - relaxed nicely, restrained, pretty good work
In Lingerie - 47.08, much better than Turbo Compresser, broke off behind quickly caught him, galloped out very strong
Turbo Compresser - 47 4/5, did not work as well as In Lingerie
Mizdirection- 5f in 58 4/5, 22 3/5 opening
Little Mike - Average work 5f 1:01 3/5, not bad just average
Smiling Tiger - Did not like, under pressure
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Monday 10-29-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Below are my notes from Mike Welsch's DRF video on Breeders' Cup works for Monday 10-29-2012.
Main Track - Course a little loose, not as fast as over the weekend
Work of the Day
Groupie Doll - showed why she is going to be the favorite, did it easily, 11 2/5 first 1/8, hooked up with Richard's Kid grabbed the bit, pulled away, very strong gallop very easily, definitely her race to lose
Tapizar - seemed rank, 48 4/5
Unbridled's Note - relaxed, 50 1/5, just an easy work
Dust and Diamonds - Welsch interested in, similar to Unbridled's Note work
Justin Phillip - Best of 5 Asmussen horses, finished 23 4/5 all on his own
Great Mills - seemed on the muscle, but settled, got a little tired coming home, but not too bad
Rumor - quick 3/8 in 34 4/5, a little head strong early, looked very sharp
Calidoscopio - 5f in company all the way around 1:01 1/5, was carried out by other horse, finished up average, but not under a lot of pressure, but not a great gallop out, not as good as yesterday
Nancy O - didn't like
Jaycito - went in company, broke off behind, quickly caught workmate, but tired some in stretch
Handsome Mike - looked great, did it easily
Alpha - great appearance, love the way he looked, best looking galloper this morning
Main Track - Course a little loose, not as fast as over the weekend
Work of the Day
Groupie Doll - showed why she is going to be the favorite, did it easily, 11 2/5 first 1/8, hooked up with Richard's Kid grabbed the bit, pulled away, very strong gallop very easily, definitely her race to lose
Tapizar - seemed rank, 48 4/5
Unbridled's Note - relaxed, 50 1/5, just an easy work
Dust and Diamonds - Welsch interested in, similar to Unbridled's Note work
Justin Phillip - Best of 5 Asmussen horses, finished 23 4/5 all on his own
Great Mills - seemed on the muscle, but settled, got a little tired coming home, but not too bad
Rumor - quick 3/8 in 34 4/5, a little head strong early, looked very sharp
Calidoscopio - 5f in company all the way around 1:01 1/5, was carried out by other horse, finished up average, but not under a lot of pressure, but not a great gallop out, not as good as yesterday
Nancy O - didn't like
Jaycito - went in company, broke off behind, quickly caught workmate, but tired some in stretch
Handsome Mike - looked great, did it easily
Alpha - great appearance, love the way he looked, best looking galloper this morning
Monday, October 29, 2012
Sunday 10-28-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Below are my notes from Mike Welsch's DRF video on Breeders' Cup works for Sunday 10-28-2012.
Main Track - Fast - times a little quicker today than Friday
Game on Dude - brilliant 6f 1:13 1/5, easy, strong gallop
Fed Biz - 5f 1:00 1/5, galloped out well, sneaky player
Fast Bullet - was just cruising easy as can be, galloped out well, sneaky player off layoff
Coil - Caught Capital Account 48 3/5, maintenance work
Capital Account - 48 3/5, maintenance work, about the same as Coil
Contested - Big speed, seemed a little tired at end :59 flat
My Miss Aurelia - maintenance work, evenly :48 for 1/2, relax nicely, beautiful maintenance work, seemed like the wanted to do more, key contender, top form
Class Included - went really well, :47 2/5, galloped out well, really impressed, too bad she is in such strong field
Slim Shady - did not like, but working on dirt and going to run on grass, really tired down lane, no gallop out
Calidoscopio - dragged rider, looked tremendous, could be really dangerous, grabbed bit when saw another horse *Welsch really impressed, maybe good bet
California Flag - Looked like a winner, 46 2/5, just cruising, maintainng form, looked good
Tale of a Champion - 47 1/5, striding out well, looked good
Main Track - Fast - times a little quicker today than Friday
Game on Dude - brilliant 6f 1:13 1/5, easy, strong gallop
Fed Biz - 5f 1:00 1/5, galloped out well, sneaky player
Fast Bullet - was just cruising easy as can be, galloped out well, sneaky player off layoff
Coil - Caught Capital Account 48 3/5, maintenance work
Capital Account - 48 3/5, maintenance work, about the same as Coil
Contested - Big speed, seemed a little tired at end :59 flat
My Miss Aurelia - maintenance work, evenly :48 for 1/2, relax nicely, beautiful maintenance work, seemed like the wanted to do more, key contender, top form
Class Included - went really well, :47 2/5, galloped out well, really impressed, too bad she is in such strong field
Slim Shady - did not like, but working on dirt and going to run on grass, really tired down lane, no gallop out
Calidoscopio - dragged rider, looked tremendous, could be really dangerous, grabbed bit when saw another horse *Welsch really impressed, maybe good bet
California Flag - Looked like a winner, 46 2/5, just cruising, maintainng form, looked good
Tale of a Champion - 47 1/5, striding out well, looked good
Saturday 10-27-2012 Breeders' Cup Workout Notes
Below are my notes from Mike Welsch's DRF video on Breeders' Cup works for Saturday 10-27-2012.
Turf - Firm Dogs Out
Works of the Day-
Main Track - Super Ninety Nine - 5f :59 2/5
Turf Track - Reenesgotzip - 5f :59 2/5 - broke off 3L behind, finished full of run, sitting chilly, galloped out best of all bc workers for the day
Workouts
Dullahan - 5f Dirt 1:00 - 22 4/5 opening, may have gone too fast early, average work
Shackleford - Looked much better than before Forego (when scratched), first 3/8 in :35
Executive Privilage - not impressed, struggled during latter stages of work, dissappointing for favorite
Love and Pride - 48 3/5, better of pair, liked the way she went, final 1/4 23 4/5
Switch - 1:11.58, but didn't like the way she did it, rider really had to get into her, nothing left *ran 2nd in last two BC after not working well
Second City - 6f 1:13 3/5, but did it comfortably, well in hand, nice work
Trinniberg - relaxed nicely, restrained, pretty good work
In Lingerie - 47.08, much better than Turbo Compresser, broke off behind quickly caught him, galloped out very strong
Turbo Compresser - 47 4/5, did not work as well as In Lingerie
Mizdirection- 5f in 58 4/5, 22 3/5 opening
Little Mike - Average work 5f 1:01 3/5, not bad just average
Smiling Tiger - Did not like, under pressure
Turf - Firm Dogs Out
Works of the Day-
Main Track - Super Ninety Nine - 5f :59 2/5
Turf Track - Reenesgotzip - 5f :59 2/5 - broke off 3L behind, finished full of run, sitting chilly, galloped out best of all bc workers for the day
Workouts
Dullahan - 5f Dirt 1:00 - 22 4/5 opening, may have gone too fast early, average work
Shackleford - Looked much better than before Forego (when scratched), first 3/8 in :35
Executive Privilage - not impressed, struggled during latter stages of work, dissappointing for favorite
Love and Pride - 48 3/5, better of pair, liked the way she went, final 1/4 23 4/5
Switch - 1:11.58, but didn't like the way she did it, rider really had to get into her, nothing left *ran 2nd in last two BC after not working well
Second City - 6f 1:13 3/5, but did it comfortably, well in hand, nice work
Trinniberg - relaxed nicely, restrained, pretty good work
In Lingerie - 47.08, much better than Turbo Compresser, broke off behind quickly caught him, galloped out very strong
Turbo Compresser - 47 4/5, did not work as well as In Lingerie
Mizdirection- 5f in 58 4/5, 22 3/5 opening
Little Mike - Average work 5f 1:01 3/5, not bad just average
Smiling Tiger - Did not like, under pressure
Sunday, October 28, 2012
10/27/2012 Notes & Breeders' Cup Thoughts...
Belmont - Bold Ruler Stakes
Caixa Eletronica - If you know me, you konw I love this horse. I thought he seemed like he was running a little flat on the backstretch. He tried to put together a bid, but then faded badly. We'll see how he comes out of this and he has bounced back off poor finishes in the past
Laurel Park - Laurel Turf Cup Stakes
Dannhauser - First of all I want apologize to my followers for not handicapping this weekend. I felt like Dannhauser was moving forward and thought he ran a sneaky good race in the Japan Racing Association Stakes, plus he had a great win before that at Colonial coming from well off the pace. And, Sheldon Russell on the turf must always be considered. Just glancing at the entries I liked See Tobe first, with Dannhauser second. Luckily, Sheldon found room on the inside and Dannhauser fired in his usual fashion.
See Tobe - Another good effort, but Dannhauser got the jump on him this time with a rail saving trip. Unlike in the Japan Racing Association Stakes where Dannhauser closed from further back.
Keeneland - Fayette Stakes
Take Charge Indy - Borel and Pat Byrne must have had a lot of confidence in this horse, because they sent him hard from the gate to make the lead. I had figured he may sit just behind the leaders. Making his first start since the Kentucky Derby the first weekend in May, going 1-1/8 mile off this layoff and facing older horses for the first time I thought he ran a great race. He led throughout, fought off a challenge in the stretch and only faded shortly before the wire. If this had been a 1 mile or 1-1/16 mile race he very much could have won. Hats off to this colt and depending on his placement he'll probably be a good bet next out, esp. if he shortens up just a little.
Breeders' Cup Thoughts
I haven't begun any serious handicapping and these selections are by no means final, but here are a few of my thoughts at this point. More to come next week...
Breeders Cup Classic
Game on Dude - At this point I have to go with most and say he is the horse to beat. I thought he could have won last year and this year he is running on a track that he loves, should play to his speed, gets a top jockey (not that Chantal didn't give him some good rides or wasn't a top jockey) and you know Baffert will have him ready. Plus, he showed last out he doesn't need the lead to win, just keep him within striking distance. At this point I'd have to say he is my pick, though that is subject to change.
Mucho Macho Man - Again, if you know me you know I really like this horse, always have. I thought he ran a really good Woodward, but I would have liked to see him get by To Honor and Serve. He seems to have been working great since then, so the jury is still out. Has an upset chance.
Ron the Greek - Stole the "Big Cap" while "the Dude" was away in Dubai and he beat Wise Dan in the Stephen Foster (though admittedly it was not Wise Dan's best race). He's proven he can win at Santa Anita which I like. But he's going to need someone to press pace early for him to get by Game on Dude and he was flat in the Gold Cup. Has an upset chance.
Fort Larned - I really liked this horse in the Whitney, did run bad in the Gold Cup. But I would liked to have seen him win the Gold Cup against a few that are running back in the BC Classic. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics, with some small upset chance.
Royal Delta - Definitely fits with these, but I think she'll run in the Distaff (aka Ladies Classic).
To Honor and Serve - Good when a shows up, a money burner when he doesn't. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics. Held off Mucho Macho Man in the Woodward and he'll need that same effort (and a little more) to win. Was flat in the Kelso, but Mott obviously knows how to prepare for the Breeders' Cup. With that said Drosslemeyer was moving forward last year, not sure I can say them same about To Honor and Serve.
Flat Out - I'm really not sure what to make of him at this point other than he loves Belmont where he won his last 3 wins have come. Don't like him to win, but definitely an exotics horse.
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Wise Dan - This horse has consistently shown he is on top of his game and would be a possible single if not for the Euro.
Excelebration - A Euro in a Breeders' Cup turf race - always dangerous and likely winner.
Animal Kingdom - To me this is the most interesting entry in both days of racing. Graham Motion always places his horse well, but this is ambitious. Still, plenty of horses have won off the layoff and he is a Kentucky Derby winner who likes the turf and should offer some value - you don't get that often. I think he has a real chance here, especially to complete the exacta, if not the trifecta.
Obviously - Good in his last out. Don't see him getting over the top 3. Trifecta horse.
Little Mike - Don't like him to win, but I will not let him beat me in the Trifecta.
Trailblazer - A good showing in this last out. Exotics use.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Shackleford - An easy winner with his best form, but that is in question. Still, the track should play to his liking.
Emcee - Always gives an honest effort and could pick up the pieces if Shackleford decides he'd rather go back to the barn and graze.
Nonios - A good stalking second last out. Shortening up, so definitely a possibility, esp. if he moves forward.
Jersey Town - Won last out, but I don't like him here. Too much of a hit and miss horse, and in the Breeders' Cup you have to bring your best.
Rail Trip - Good use for value in your exotics.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
California Flag - Seriously, how do you bet against this 8 yr old? He may not be in as good of shape as 2009, but he loves the downhill course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Coil - Proves he deserves a solid look after gamely winning his last out. He's a speedy horse and has a real shot here, still I think the distance maybe a little short for him.
Amazombie - If he shows up he should handle these with ease, but after his last out that ability is in questions and he maybe a good bet against in the win category.
Capital Account - Good second in prep, an upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Emcee - Fits here if doesn't run in Dirt Mile. An upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Trinniberg - Has not been as good in his last starts, but the track my play to his speed and thus a good exotics option.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll - Very likely the best single in the Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
Royal Delta - Definitely the best if runs here. There are some in here with an upset chance, but I'd lean heavily on this one.
Awesome Feather - 10 for 10, one on the short list for an upset chance in here.
Questing - Good, but may not be good enough for the two above. Still had a great performance at Saratoga other than drifting. Could very well complete exacta.
My Miss Aurelia - Another solid contender, see her likely to fill out exotics. Has been managed well, upset chance.
More to come next week...
Caixa Eletronica - If you know me, you konw I love this horse. I thought he seemed like he was running a little flat on the backstretch. He tried to put together a bid, but then faded badly. We'll see how he comes out of this and he has bounced back off poor finishes in the past
Laurel Park - Laurel Turf Cup Stakes
Dannhauser - First of all I want apologize to my followers for not handicapping this weekend. I felt like Dannhauser was moving forward and thought he ran a sneaky good race in the Japan Racing Association Stakes, plus he had a great win before that at Colonial coming from well off the pace. And, Sheldon Russell on the turf must always be considered. Just glancing at the entries I liked See Tobe first, with Dannhauser second. Luckily, Sheldon found room on the inside and Dannhauser fired in his usual fashion.
See Tobe - Another good effort, but Dannhauser got the jump on him this time with a rail saving trip. Unlike in the Japan Racing Association Stakes where Dannhauser closed from further back.
Keeneland - Fayette Stakes
Take Charge Indy - Borel and Pat Byrne must have had a lot of confidence in this horse, because they sent him hard from the gate to make the lead. I had figured he may sit just behind the leaders. Making his first start since the Kentucky Derby the first weekend in May, going 1-1/8 mile off this layoff and facing older horses for the first time I thought he ran a great race. He led throughout, fought off a challenge in the stretch and only faded shortly before the wire. If this had been a 1 mile or 1-1/16 mile race he very much could have won. Hats off to this colt and depending on his placement he'll probably be a good bet next out, esp. if he shortens up just a little.
Breeders' Cup Thoughts
I haven't begun any serious handicapping and these selections are by no means final, but here are a few of my thoughts at this point. More to come next week...
Breeders Cup Classic
Game on Dude - At this point I have to go with most and say he is the horse to beat. I thought he could have won last year and this year he is running on a track that he loves, should play to his speed, gets a top jockey (not that Chantal didn't give him some good rides or wasn't a top jockey) and you know Baffert will have him ready. Plus, he showed last out he doesn't need the lead to win, just keep him within striking distance. At this point I'd have to say he is my pick, though that is subject to change.
Mucho Macho Man - Again, if you know me you know I really like this horse, always have. I thought he ran a really good Woodward, but I would have liked to see him get by To Honor and Serve. He seems to have been working great since then, so the jury is still out. Has an upset chance.
Ron the Greek - Stole the "Big Cap" while "the Dude" was away in Dubai and he beat Wise Dan in the Stephen Foster (though admittedly it was not Wise Dan's best race). He's proven he can win at Santa Anita which I like. But he's going to need someone to press pace early for him to get by Game on Dude and he was flat in the Gold Cup. Has an upset chance.
Fort Larned - I really liked this horse in the Whitney, did run bad in the Gold Cup. But I would liked to have seen him win the Gold Cup against a few that are running back in the BC Classic. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics, with some small upset chance.
Royal Delta - Definitely fits with these, but I think she'll run in the Distaff (aka Ladies Classic).
To Honor and Serve - Good when a shows up, a money burner when he doesn't. Definitely a horse to use in the exotics. Held off Mucho Macho Man in the Woodward and he'll need that same effort (and a little more) to win. Was flat in the Kelso, but Mott obviously knows how to prepare for the Breeders' Cup. With that said Drosslemeyer was moving forward last year, not sure I can say them same about To Honor and Serve.
Flat Out - I'm really not sure what to make of him at this point other than he loves Belmont where he won his last 3 wins have come. Don't like him to win, but definitely an exotics horse.
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Wise Dan - This horse has consistently shown he is on top of his game and would be a possible single if not for the Euro.
Excelebration - A Euro in a Breeders' Cup turf race - always dangerous and likely winner.
Animal Kingdom - To me this is the most interesting entry in both days of racing. Graham Motion always places his horse well, but this is ambitious. Still, plenty of horses have won off the layoff and he is a Kentucky Derby winner who likes the turf and should offer some value - you don't get that often. I think he has a real chance here, especially to complete the exacta, if not the trifecta.
Obviously - Good in his last out. Don't see him getting over the top 3. Trifecta horse.
Little Mike - Don't like him to win, but I will not let him beat me in the Trifecta.
Trailblazer - A good showing in this last out. Exotics use.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Shackleford - An easy winner with his best form, but that is in question. Still, the track should play to his liking.
Emcee - Always gives an honest effort and could pick up the pieces if Shackleford decides he'd rather go back to the barn and graze.
Nonios - A good stalking second last out. Shortening up, so definitely a possibility, esp. if he moves forward.
Jersey Town - Won last out, but I don't like him here. Too much of a hit and miss horse, and in the Breeders' Cup you have to bring your best.
Rail Trip - Good use for value in your exotics.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
California Flag - Seriously, how do you bet against this 8 yr old? He may not be in as good of shape as 2009, but he loves the downhill course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Coil - Proves he deserves a solid look after gamely winning his last out. He's a speedy horse and has a real shot here, still I think the distance maybe a little short for him.
Amazombie - If he shows up he should handle these with ease, but after his last out that ability is in questions and he maybe a good bet against in the win category.
Capital Account - Good second in prep, an upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Emcee - Fits here if doesn't run in Dirt Mile. An upset chance if Amazombie doesn't fire.
Trinniberg - Has not been as good in his last starts, but the track my play to his speed and thus a good exotics option.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll - Very likely the best single in the Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic
Royal Delta - Definitely the best if runs here. There are some in here with an upset chance, but I'd lean heavily on this one.
Awesome Feather - 10 for 10, one on the short list for an upset chance in here.
Questing - Good, but may not be good enough for the two above. Still had a great performance at Saratoga other than drifting. Could very well complete exacta.
My Miss Aurelia - Another solid contender, see her likely to fill out exotics. Has been managed well, upset chance.
More to come next week...
Friday, October 12, 2012
Laurel Park - 10-12-2012 Selections Pick 4 Races 6-9
Updated for Scratches.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Heron Lake (7/2) - interesting Zito shows up here, has beaten better, good speed
B - #5 Lemon Juice (4-1) - trainer 35% first claim, good post for style - Third
C - #1a Citizen Kat (5/2) - has been racing against better, forgive last out on sly track
D - #8 Behemoth (4-1) - beyer #'s fit here, has won at distance and Lrl - Second
E - #7 Black Bullett (6-1) - has won at Lrl & 2 for 6 at distance - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,1 = $4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,1a / 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $36
Race 7 - 6f Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #8 Make Em See Red (5-1) - like the speed here, won last out against this level but was dq'd - Third
B - #4 Ebony Street (10-1) - some trouble in recent, cutting back in distance, S. Russell on the turf
C - #6 Homestead (3-1) - could easily be best in here, but first time sprinting, trainer 16-0 Turf sprints
D - #9 Bonjour Belle (4-1) - has potential to sit a really good trip - Second
E - #12 I Am Iron Woman (8-1) - has closed well in both races, but may not get pace help here
Suggested Plays:
$2 Win #8 (if odds 5-1 or higher)
$1 - 6,4/6,4,2 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 6,4,2/6,4,2 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $12
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #7 Bravo Romeo (7/5) - trainer 1st claim 35%, beat open claiming last out, good post for style - Second
B - #3 Service for Ten (7/2) - off layoff, but has a solid work tab, trainer 24% at +180 days off, has speed - Winner
C - #5 Bayou Bengal (12-1) - speed, has won at Lrl, value - Third
D - #6 Rocky Gap (6-1) - off layoff may need a race, runs well at Lrl
E - #2 Medaglia's Express (4-1) - has some poor dirt #'s in past and moving up in class, still may fill out trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,3/7,3,5/7,3,5,6,2 = $12 - Hit $23.00
$0.50 - 7,3/2,6/7,3,5 = $4
Race 9 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #10 Hold Our Destiny (9/2) - good speed for distance - Winner $13.40
B - #2 Backyard Boogie (6-1) - 3 of 4 in money at distance, Russell will need to figure good trip
C - #11 Political Pupil (7/2) - class drop, may sit a good trip if not wide, serious contender
D - #9 Heart of Rome (10-1) - has been wide in recent outs, definite possible to fill out exotics
E - #8 Holiday Road Girl (8-1) - Smith is 20% with 2yr olds, always respect him
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 10,2/10,2,11 = $4
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Heron Lake (7/2) - interesting Zito shows up here, has beaten better, good speed
B - #5 Lemon Juice (4-1) - trainer 35% first claim, good post for style - Third
C - #1a Citizen Kat (5/2) - has been racing against better, forgive last out on sly track
D - #8 Behemoth (4-1) - beyer #'s fit here, has won at distance and Lrl - Second
E - #7 Black Bullett (6-1) - has won at Lrl & 2 for 6 at distance - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,1 = $4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,1a / 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $36
Race 7 - 6f Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #8 Make Em See Red (5-1) - like the speed here, won last out against this level but was dq'd - Third
B - #4 Ebony Street (10-1) - some trouble in recent, cutting back in distance, S. Russell on the turf
C - #6 Homestead (3-1) - could easily be best in here, but first time sprinting, trainer 16-0 Turf sprints
D - #9 Bonjour Belle (4-1) - has potential to sit a really good trip - Second
E - #12 I Am Iron Woman (8-1) - has closed well in both races, but may not get pace help here
Suggested Plays:
$2 Win #8 (if odds 5-1 or higher)
$1 - 6,4/6,4,2 = $4
- OR -
$1 - 6,4,2/6,4,2 = $6
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,6,8,9 / 7,3 / 10,2,11 = $12
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #7 Bravo Romeo (7/5) - trainer 1st claim 35%, beat open claiming last out, good post for style - Second
B - #3 Service for Ten (7/2) - off layoff, but has a solid work tab, trainer 24% at +180 days off, has speed - Winner
C - #5 Bayou Bengal (12-1) - speed, has won at Lrl, value - Third
D - #6 Rocky Gap (6-1) - off layoff may need a race, runs well at Lrl
E - #2 Medaglia's Express (4-1) - has some poor dirt #'s in past and moving up in class, still may fill out trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 7,3/7,3,5/7,3,5,6,2 = $12 - Hit $23.00
$0.50 - 7,3/2,6/7,3,5 = $4
Race 9 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #10 Hold Our Destiny (9/2) - good speed for distance - Winner $13.40
B - #2 Backyard Boogie (6-1) - 3 of 4 in money at distance, Russell will need to figure good trip
C - #11 Political Pupil (7/2) - class drop, may sit a good trip if not wide, serious contender
D - #9 Heart of Rome (10-1) - has been wide in recent outs, definite possible to fill out exotics
E - #8 Holiday Road Girl (8-1) - Smith is 20% with 2yr olds, always respect him
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 10,2/10,2,11 = $4
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Laurel Park - 10-6-2012 Maryland Million Classic Selections
Updated for Scratches.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Maryland Million Classic Stakes - Play
A - #3 Eighttofasttocatch (9/5) - could be easily the best if Russell can work a good trip, loves Lrl & the 1-1/8mi
B - #2 Not Abroad (2-1) - not without a chance, but he'll be chasing Eighttofasttocatch
C - #6 Tujoes (6-1) - seems to be rounding into form, should get a good trip and laying close, definite exotics use
D - #4 Cactus Charlie (4-1) - a good closer, but he is going to need some pace help which he may not get here
E - #1 Regal Warrior (8-1) - coming off a long layoff, has gotten in some good works, at his very best he fits here
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,2/3,2,6/3,2,6 = $8
$1 - 3,2/3,2,6/4,1 = $8
$2 - 6/3,2 = $4
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Maryland Million Classic Stakes - Play
A - #3 Eighttofasttocatch (9/5) - could be easily the best if Russell can work a good trip, loves Lrl & the 1-1/8mi
B - #2 Not Abroad (2-1) - not without a chance, but he'll be chasing Eighttofasttocatch
C - #6 Tujoes (6-1) - seems to be rounding into form, should get a good trip and laying close, definite exotics use
D - #4 Cactus Charlie (4-1) - a good closer, but he is going to need some pace help which he may not get here
E - #1 Regal Warrior (8-1) - coming off a long layoff, has gotten in some good works, at his very best he fits here
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,2/3,2,6/3,2,6 = $8
$1 - 3,2/3,2,6/4,1 = $8
$2 - 6/3,2 = $4
Santa Anita - 10-6-2012 Selections
Pre Scratches. I will update the plays once the scratches come out.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 3 - 1mi Arroyo Seco Mile TURF G2 - Play
A - #3 Obviously (1/1) - seems to be the lone speed in race, has proven can win with that style at distance
B - #1 Mr. Commons (8/5) - works suggest ready, will need to work out trip from post, and will have to run down lone speed
C - #5 Midnight Interlude (8-1) - have always like this horse on the turf (his preferred surface), don't think he'll win but good for exotics
D - #2 Trailblazer (5-1) - this horse is a huge question mark, could very well upset these
E - #4 Kettle Corn (6-1) - somethings to like here, but I think top 2 are much better
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,1/3,1/5 = $4
$1 - 3,1/3,1/2,4 = $4
$1 - 3,1/5,2,4/3,1 = $6
Race 8 - 6f SA Sprint Championship G1 - Action
A - #2 Amazombie (9/5) - could easily be best here, but is vulnerable, does love this distance
B - #7 Reneesgotzip (6-1) - has a lot of gate speed which should server her well here
C - #4 Camp Victory (9/2) - the only hose in here to beat Amazombie, will be waiting for front runners to come back
D - #3 Coil (4-1) - Baffert adds blinkers and I find it interesting that he places him here, must be doing well
E - #5 Capital Account (3-1) - should sit a good stalking trip, but still a cut below Amazombie if Amazombie runs his best
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2/7,4/7,4,3 = $8
$1 - 2/7,4/5 = $2
$1 - 2/3,5/7,4 = $4
$2 - 7,4/2 = $4
Friday, October 5, 2012
Keeneland - 10-6-2012 Race 9 Shadewell Turf Mile Selections
Pre Scratches. I will update the plays once the scratches come out.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 9 - 1mi Shadwell Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #5 Wise Dan (4/5) - may need to stalk here, but seems easily the best even w/o regular rider
B - #2 Doubles Partner (6-1) - with lots of speed should stalk well, but will need good position, works suggest ready
C - #7 Data Link (8-1) - a consistent closer, speed in the race should help
D - #3 Corporate Jungle (12-1) - ran a good FourStarDave, but no match for wise day
E - #10 Silver Max (8-1) - speed horse and may likely make the lead, how far will he fade is question, works suggest read
Suggested Plays:
Going to play Trifecta's here for value since Wise Dan will be a short price.
$2 - 5/2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 5/2,7/3,10 = $4
$0.50 = 5/3,10/2,7,3,10 = $3
$0.50 = 5/2,7/8,11,12 = $3
$0.50 = 2,7/2,7,5/2,7,5,3,10 = $6
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 9 - 1mi Shadwell Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #5 Wise Dan (4/5) - may need to stalk here, but seems easily the best even w/o regular rider
B - #2 Doubles Partner (6-1) - with lots of speed should stalk well, but will need good position, works suggest ready
C - #7 Data Link (8-1) - a consistent closer, speed in the race should help
D - #3 Corporate Jungle (12-1) - ran a good FourStarDave, but no match for wise day
E - #10 Silver Max (8-1) - speed horse and may likely make the lead, how far will he fade is question, works suggest read
Suggested Plays:
Going to play Trifecta's here for value since Wise Dan will be a short price.
$2 - 5/2,7/2,7 = $4
$1 - 5/2,7/3,10 = $4
$0.50 = 5/3,10/2,7,3,10 = $3
$0.50 = 5/2,7/8,11,12 = $3
$0.50 = 2,7/2,7,5/2,7,5,3,10 = $6
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Laurel Park - Fri 10-5-2012 Selections Races 2,6,7,8,9
Updated for Scratches.
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 2 - 6f sAlw - Play
A - #6 Graysonia (1/1) - good post, lots of trouble last out, has beaten better - Second
B - #2 Gangsterontherun (4-1) - 3 for 4 at distance, will likely not get clear lead, speed - Winner
C - #3 Yano (8-1) - Slight class drop, has run well at distance, should stalk & speed in race will help
D - #4 Candy Games (8-1) - speed, slight class drop, should hang around for exotics
E - #5 Chac Mool (9/2) - speed, but think others seem better - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6/2,3,4/2,3,4,5 = $9
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Katniss Everdeen (4-1) - change of style, showed speed last out
B - #5 Jungle Princess (5-1) - class drop, could go for lead, good breeding, Ness
C - #10 Theatricality (6/5) - may need a race - Second
D - #7 Domestic Rose (15-1) - always closes
E - #6 Ten Hat Tricks (20-1) - showed can close well last out
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,10,7 = $6
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $40.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $54
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #13 Sounds of the City (7/2) - Will need a little pace help, but should get it, may get caught wide, lots of class vs these - Winner $6.40
B - #10 Nice Stuff (5-1) - A. Dutrow & S. Russell 67% at Lrl and 40% overall, lots of class, always closes
C - #8 Kitten Love (8-1) - Lots of gate speed, but always seems to fade
D - #1a Dakota Sis (10-1) - 1st out in 2012, but has some gate speed, may need a race, Ness 33% +180 days - Third
E - #12 Perfect Measure (20-1) - Can be in the mix if runs to best, interesting that Smith places horse here - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 -13,10/13,10,8,1a,12 = $8 - Hit $117.30
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $13.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $18
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #2 Gypsy Baron (5-1) - Has shot for easy lead
B - #3 Easton Jack (8/5) - May contest for lead or stalk, has potential to be easily the best - Third
C - #5 Jazz Age (5-1) - Class drop, should get a good trip
D - #6 Senor Quickie (6-1) - Has run well on Dirt in the past - Second
E - #4 Siegfried (9/2) - Runs well at Lrl, will need some pace help, but good Exacta/Trifecta horse - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3,5 = $8
$1 - 2,3/6,4 = $4
Race 9 - 6f OC - Action
A - #5 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - There if speed collapses - Winner $8.00
B - #6 Hurricane Girl (2-1) - Lots of speed, could easily win here if speed holds
C - #3 Our Year (5/2) - Another speed horse that is 50% at this distance
D - #7 Majestic Samurai (6-1) - Maybe off form as of late, but best puts her in the mix here - Second
E - #1 Cryptocandiac (10-1) - Possibility to fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5,6/5,6 = $4
$1 - 5,6/3,7 = $4 - Hit $22.40
- OR -
$1 - 5,6/5,6,3/5,6,3,7,1 = $12
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 2 - 6f sAlw - Play
A - #6 Graysonia (1/1) - good post, lots of trouble last out, has beaten better - Second
B - #2 Gangsterontherun (4-1) - 3 for 4 at distance, will likely not get clear lead, speed - Winner
C - #3 Yano (8-1) - Slight class drop, has run well at distance, should stalk & speed in race will help
D - #4 Candy Games (8-1) - speed, slight class drop, should hang around for exotics
E - #5 Chac Mool (9/2) - speed, but think others seem better - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6/2,3,4/2,3,4,5 = $9
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Action
A - #4 Katniss Everdeen (4-1) - change of style, showed speed last out
B - #5 Jungle Princess (5-1) - class drop, could go for lead, good breeding, Ness
C - #10 Theatricality (6/5) - may need a race - Second
D - #7 Domestic Rose (15-1) - always closes
E - #6 Ten Hat Tricks (20-1) - showed can close well last out
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,10,7 = $6
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $40.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,10 / 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $54
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #13 Sounds of the City (7/2) - Will need a little pace help, but should get it, may get caught wide, lots of class vs these - Winner $6.40
B - #10 Nice Stuff (5-1) - A. Dutrow & S. Russell 67% at Lrl and 40% overall, lots of class, always closes
C - #8 Kitten Love (8-1) - Lots of gate speed, but always seems to fade
D - #1a Dakota Sis (10-1) - 1st out in 2012, but has some gate speed, may need a race, Ness 33% +180 days - Third
E - #12 Perfect Measure (20-1) - Can be in the mix if runs to best, interesting that Smith places horse here - Second
Suggested Plays:
$1 -13,10/13,10,8,1a,12 = $8 - Hit $117.30
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 13,10,1a / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $13.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 13,10,1a ,8 / 2,3,5 / 5,6,3 = $18
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #2 Gypsy Baron (5-1) - Has shot for easy lead
B - #3 Easton Jack (8/5) - May contest for lead or stalk, has potential to be easily the best - Third
C - #5 Jazz Age (5-1) - Class drop, should get a good trip
D - #6 Senor Quickie (6-1) - Has run well on Dirt in the past - Second
E - #4 Siegfried (9/2) - Runs well at Lrl, will need some pace help, but good Exacta/Trifecta horse - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3,5 = $8
$1 - 2,3/6,4 = $4
Race 9 - 6f OC - Action
A - #5 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - There if speed collapses - Winner $8.00
B - #6 Hurricane Girl (2-1) - Lots of speed, could easily win here if speed holds
C - #3 Our Year (5/2) - Another speed horse that is 50% at this distance
D - #7 Majestic Samurai (6-1) - Maybe off form as of late, but best puts her in the mix here - Second
E - #1 Cryptocandiac (10-1) - Possibility to fill out Trifecta
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5,6/5,6 = $4
$1 - 5,6/3,7 = $4 - Hit $22.40
- OR -
$1 - 5,6/5,6,3/5,6,3,7,1 = $12
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Laurel Park - Thurs 9-27-2012 Selections Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Updated for Scratches.
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi OC - Action
Recap: I thought the #4 lost his chance when we stumbled out of the gate, but he still didn't fire later. #6 Mr Hall's Opus was very stubborn to wear down foe for win.
A - #4 Hello Now (8-1) - like the speed shown last out, notes show game horse, sire
B - #5 Amelia Mar (3-1) - has won at distance, ships from Mth
C - #6 Mr Hall's Opus (2-1) - closed last out, added ground may help, ships from Mth - Winner
D - #3 Off My Cloud (6-1) - class drop, could complete trifecta - Second
E - #1 Precious Franca (9/2) - class drop - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket 6 / 9 / 1 / 9
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2 / 6,9 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9 = $27
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9,4 = $40.50
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi OC TURF - Action
Recap: S. Russell is always extremely dangerous on the turf. Utley had to find room in the stretch to run, but once he did he quickly ran down the leader. #3 Mr. Irons just left himself too much to do considering the pace.
A - #3 Mr. Irons (9/2) - good closing effort last out against better, plenty of speed here for style
B - #9 Utley (3-1) - closes well, back to turf after dirt last out, should get a good trip, S. Russell on the turf - Winner
C - #2 Followmyfootsteps (5-1) - has got speed, lots of class, worried will get pressed - Second
D - #1 Noll Wallop (6-1) - can close, definitely could mix it up in the exotics
E - #6 Raconteur (12-1) - a huge question mark here, 1st turf try and adds blinkers
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,9/3,9 = $4
$1 - 3,9/2,1,6 = $6 Hit $25.70
- OR -
$1 - 3,9/3,9/2,1,6 = $6
$1 - 3,9/2,1,6/3,9,2 = $10
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
Winning Ticket 9 / 1 / 9
$0.50 - 3,9,6 / 5,2 / 6,9 = $6
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9,4 = $13.50
Race 8 - 7f OC - Play
Recap: I try not to harp on Jockeys too much, but Castellano lost this race for #5 My Charming Clyde. It looked like he thought he had the race won at the top of the stretch. Instead of cutting the corner he floated out and that allowed #1 Private Tale to slip to his inside and by the time Castellano noticed him Private Tale already had a head in front. If Private Tale had been forced to go outside then My Charming Clyde could very well have won. There are a lot of was to lose a race, but I don't give an experienced jockey a free pass when he floats out and lets a horse slide through on the inside - that is simple geometry!
A - #5 My Charming Clyde (2-1) - This horse should get a perfect trip from this post - Second
B - #2 Malibu Kid (7/2) - Could be lone speed in race
C - #6 Hop Skip and Away (12-1) - Class drop and may provide some value in race
D - #1 Private Tale (3-1) - Winner
E - #3 Homeboykris (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
$4 - 5/2,6 = $8
$2 -2,6/5 = $4
$1 - 5/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 5/2,6/2,6,3 = $4
$1 - 5/2,6,1/2,6,1,3 = $9
$2 - 2,6/5 = $4
Race 9 - 1mi Claiming TURF - Play
Recap: Someone forgot to tell #5 All for Peace he was 97-1. The speed didn't collapse as much as I was hoping.
A - #6 Safety Valve (5/2) - class drop, lots of class vs these, like the inside post, 2nd off layoff - Third
B - #9 Great Harbour (6/5) - could be lone speed, but no value at 6/5, could be wide on 1st turn - Winner
C - #4 Wotan (8-1) - good closer, but lack of pace could hurt
D - #3 Nightscape (20-1) - could get into Trifecta
E - #8 Artic Cry (12-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,9/6,9 = $4
$2 - 6/4 = $2
$1 - 9/4 = $1
$1 - 6,9/8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,9/6,9,4/6,9,4,3,8 = $12
$1 - 6,9/3,8/6,9,4 = $8
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi OC - Action
Recap: I thought the #4 lost his chance when we stumbled out of the gate, but he still didn't fire later. #6 Mr Hall's Opus was very stubborn to wear down foe for win.
A - #4 Hello Now (8-1) - like the speed shown last out, notes show game horse, sire
B - #5 Amelia Mar (3-1) - has won at distance, ships from Mth
C - #6 Mr Hall's Opus (2-1) - closed last out, added ground may help, ships from Mth - Winner
D - #3 Off My Cloud (6-1) - class drop, could complete trifecta - Second
E - #1 Precious Franca (9/2) - class drop - Third
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #4
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket 6 / 9 / 1 / 9
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2 / 6,9 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9 = $27
- OR -
$0.50 - 4,5,6 / 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9,4 = $40.50
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi OC TURF - Action
Recap: S. Russell is always extremely dangerous on the turf. Utley had to find room in the stretch to run, but once he did he quickly ran down the leader. #3 Mr. Irons just left himself too much to do considering the pace.
A - #3 Mr. Irons (9/2) - good closing effort last out against better, plenty of speed here for style
B - #9 Utley (3-1) - closes well, back to turf after dirt last out, should get a good trip, S. Russell on the turf - Winner
C - #2 Followmyfootsteps (5-1) - has got speed, lots of class, worried will get pressed - Second
D - #1 Noll Wallop (6-1) - can close, definitely could mix it up in the exotics
E - #6 Raconteur (12-1) - a huge question mark here, 1st turf try and adds blinkers
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,9/3,9 = $4
$1 - 3,9/2,1,6 = $6 Hit $25.70
- OR -
$1 - 3,9/3,9/2,1,6 = $6
$1 - 3,9/2,1,6/3,9,2 = $10
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
Winning Ticket 9 / 1 / 9
$0.50 - 3,9,6 / 5,2 / 6,9 = $6
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,9,6 / 5,2,6 / 6,9,4 = $13.50
Race 8 - 7f OC - Play
Recap: I try not to harp on Jockeys too much, but Castellano lost this race for #5 My Charming Clyde. It looked like he thought he had the race won at the top of the stretch. Instead of cutting the corner he floated out and that allowed #1 Private Tale to slip to his inside and by the time Castellano noticed him Private Tale already had a head in front. If Private Tale had been forced to go outside then My Charming Clyde could very well have won. There are a lot of was to lose a race, but I don't give an experienced jockey a free pass when he floats out and lets a horse slide through on the inside - that is simple geometry!
A - #5 My Charming Clyde (2-1) - This horse should get a perfect trip from this post - Second
B - #2 Malibu Kid (7/2) - Could be lone speed in race
C - #6 Hop Skip and Away (12-1) - Class drop and may provide some value in race
D - #1 Private Tale (3-1) - Winner
E - #3 Homeboykris (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
$4 - 5/2,6 = $8
$2 -2,6/5 = $4
$1 - 5/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 5/2,6/2,6,3 = $4
$1 - 5/2,6,1/2,6,1,3 = $9
$2 - 2,6/5 = $4
Race 9 - 1mi Claiming TURF - Play
Recap: Someone forgot to tell #5 All for Peace he was 97-1. The speed didn't collapse as much as I was hoping.
A - #6 Safety Valve (5/2) - class drop, lots of class vs these, like the inside post, 2nd off layoff - Third
B - #9 Great Harbour (6/5) - could be lone speed, but no value at 6/5, could be wide on 1st turn - Winner
C - #4 Wotan (8-1) - good closer, but lack of pace could hurt
D - #3 Nightscape (20-1) - could get into Trifecta
E - #8 Artic Cry (12-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,9/6,9 = $4
$2 - 6/4 = $2
$1 - 9/4 = $1
$1 - 6,9/8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,9/6,9,4/6,9,4,3,8 = $12
$1 - 6,9/3,8/6,9,4 = $8
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Laurel Park - Wed 9-26-2012 Selections Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Updated for scratches.
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action Post Time 3:37pm
A - #1 Roman's Touch - like the early speed - Second
B - #3 St John's Gospel - My handicapping instinct tells me this is a poor play, I don't like the notes from the last start. But if he runs back to past starts he is easily best. - Winner
C - #7 Patrol Leader - can close - Third
D - #5 Risky Red
E - #4 Evening Concerto
Suggest Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7 / 9,4,1-1a = $36
- OR -
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $54
Also, you may want to play $0.50 - 1,3 / 3,8 / 6,7 / 9,4 = $8. This will add some value if some of the favorites win.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #3 Greek Warrior - 2nd off layoff, should move forward, good early speed - Winner $5.40
B - #8 Count Catamount - ships in from much classier tracks, has early speed, bad break last out - Second
C - #9 Jake Rattle N Roll - closes well, 15 of 23 in money atdistance, chance if speed collapses
D - #2 True to Tradition - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 18-25 in money at distance - Third
E - #1 Royal HIll - drops in class, has won at Lrl on the turf, shortening up
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,8/3,8 = $4 Hit $14.00
$1 - 3,8/9 = $2
$1 - 9/3,8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 3,8/3,8,9/3,8,9,2,1 = $12 Hit $22.50
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $13.50
Race 8 - 6f OC - Play
A - #6 Speeding Spike - really good early speed, class drop, 4 of 9 wins at distance - Second
B - #7 More Than a Reason - Mth shippers 30% win at Lrl, 63% in money, should get a good trip
C - #4 Regal Revenge - class drop, good speed
D - #3 Escort - really fits here, but seems to be regressing and in for tag for Ness, class drop - Third
E - #1 Wolfcamp - class drop, runs well at distance, but maybe a cut below best - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6/7,4 = $4
$1 - 6/3,1 = $2
$2 - 7/6 = $2
$1 - 7/4,3 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,7/6,7,4/6,7,4,3,1 = $12
$1 - 6,7/3 = $2
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #9 Why Not More - horse has run well at distances, closes well, should get a good trip
B - #4 Golden Rock - interesting that A. Dutrow ships here and secures Russell. Dutrow .38% 2nd off over 180 days
C - #1a Smart Cash - closes well - Winner
D - #8 Passionate Gold - ships in from classier tracks and solid trainer, but still maybe a cut below - Third
E - #1 La Flamme - Cnl shippers win a smaller % here, but I like the speed flashed last out and not much speed in here
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/4,1-1a, 8 = $3
$1 - 4/9,1-1a = $2
Pick 4 Races 6,7,8,9 - Post Time 3:37pm
Pick 3 Races 7,8,9 - Post Time 4:07pm
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 7f Claiming - Action Post Time 3:37pm
A - #1 Roman's Touch - like the early speed - Second
B - #3 St John's Gospel - My handicapping instinct tells me this is a poor play, I don't like the notes from the last start. But if he runs back to past starts he is easily best. - Winner
C - #7 Patrol Leader - can close - Third
D - #5 Risky Red
E - #4 Evening Concerto
Suggest Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7 / 9,4,1-1a = $36
- OR -
$0.50 - 1,3,7,5 / 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $54
Also, you may want to play $0.50 - 1,3 / 3,8 / 6,7 / 9,4 = $8. This will add some value if some of the favorites win.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC TURF - Action
A - #3 Greek Warrior - 2nd off layoff, should move forward, good early speed - Winner $5.40
B - #8 Count Catamount - ships in from much classier tracks, has early speed, bad break last out - Second
C - #9 Jake Rattle N Roll - closes well, 15 of 23 in money atdistance, chance if speed collapses
D - #2 True to Tradition - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 18-25 in money at distance - Third
E - #1 Royal HIll - drops in class, has won at Lrl on the turf, shortening up
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 3,8/3,8 = $4 Hit $14.00
$1 - 3,8/9 = $2
$1 - 9/3,8 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 3,8/3,8,9/3,8,9,2,1 = $12 Hit $22.50
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 3,8,9 / 6,7,4 / 9,4,1-1a = $13.50
Race 8 - 6f OC - Play
A - #6 Speeding Spike - really good early speed, class drop, 4 of 9 wins at distance - Second
B - #7 More Than a Reason - Mth shippers 30% win at Lrl, 63% in money, should get a good trip
C - #4 Regal Revenge - class drop, good speed
D - #3 Escort - really fits here, but seems to be regressing and in for tag for Ness, class drop - Third
E - #1 Wolfcamp - class drop, runs well at distance, but maybe a cut below best - Winner
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6/7,4 = $4
$1 - 6/3,1 = $2
$2 - 7/6 = $2
$1 - 7/4,3 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 6,7/6,7,4/6,7,4,3,1 = $12
$1 - 6,7/3 = $2
Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Md Sp Wght TURF - Action
A - #9 Why Not More - horse has run well at distances, closes well, should get a good trip
B - #4 Golden Rock - interesting that A. Dutrow ships here and secures Russell. Dutrow .38% 2nd off over 180 days
C - #1a Smart Cash - closes well - Winner
D - #8 Passionate Gold - ships in from classier tracks and solid trainer, but still maybe a cut below - Third
E - #1 La Flamme - Cnl shippers win a smaller % here, but I like the speed flashed last out and not much speed in here
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/4,1-1a, 8 = $3
$1 - 4/9,1-1a = $2
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Post Pa Derby Thoughts...
No matter who you liked in the Pa Derby I though it was a great betting race. The prices where there in the Exacta's which almost always means there's a lot of value in the other exotics. Against these, Alpha was certainly a deserving favorite after his two performances at Saratoga, but he was also vulnerable favorite. I thought it looked like he was regressing some in the Travers. Looking for someone to beat him I sided with Macho Macho. I used Handsome Mike in my exotics, but only underneath in the Place and Show spots.
Hats off to Handsome Mike for a well run race, but I think on Alpha's best day he could still run away from these. He was a little rank, broke slow, then seemed to rush up and then determinedly stayed on the inside part of the Parx track, which I do not like. I don't think he'll win the BC Classic, but I would not bet against him in the future soley because of this race. Macho Macho gave a good showing while running a solid race, but he just couldn't run down Handsome Mike. It will be very interesting to see how these move forward from here!
I am going to try to play the late Pick 4 at Laurel on Wednesday the 26th. I'll post the selections here.
Hats off to Handsome Mike for a well run race, but I think on Alpha's best day he could still run away from these. He was a little rank, broke slow, then seemed to rush up and then determinedly stayed on the inside part of the Parx track, which I do not like. I don't think he'll win the BC Classic, but I would not bet against him in the future soley because of this race. Macho Macho gave a good showing while running a solid race, but he just couldn't run down Handsome Mike. It will be very interesting to see how these move forward from here!
I am going to try to play the late Pick 4 at Laurel on Wednesday the 26th. I'll post the selections here.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Laurel Park - Thursday 9-20-2012 Selections (Pick 4 Races 6-9)
Updated for scratches. Start of Pick 4 race 6 post time 3:37pm.
This pick 4 sequence is tough. I've listed a couple of different ticket options depending on how deep you want to go.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Weak
A - #8 Voce Del Leone (5-1) - Winner $9.40
B - #3 Trappist Monk (6-1)
C - #13 Caldo Cat (9/2)
D - #9 Anzio Adam (12-1) - Second
E - #4 Quatorze Royalty (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket - 8 / 5 / 4 / 6
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9 / 6,10,14 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14 = $27 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11 = $54 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11,4 = $67.5 - Hit $245.35
I'd play the $18 or $27 bet. As wide open as a few of these races are, I'm not sure it is worth the risk by putting more money into it.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC - Action
A - #4 Private Tour (3-1) - Has early speed, like post for running style, good speed #'s
B - #5 Hamp (4-1) - Woodbine shipper, good speed #'s, back to preferred surface - Winner
C - #3 Gas Tank (7/2) - Back to best surface, Cnl maiden break was very impressive, early speed - Second
D - #2 Video Store (5/2) - No turf experience, but has proven can run and nice work pattern, coming off layoff
E - #6 Over and Back (10-1) - No turf experience, good 1st claim %, shipping from good track, early speed - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,3,2 = $6 - Hit $23.90
Race 8 - 1mi Claiming - Play
A - #2 Forever Tango (7/2) - Like the speed, may get uncontested lead, good wins at distance, class drop
B - #9 Sweet N Nutty (3-1) - Nice post for running style, ships from classier tracks, 6-7 in money at distance, class drop - Second
C - #4 Carrietta (4-1) - Will need some pace help, class drop, good speed #'s, likes Lrl - Winner
D - #5 Italian Nany (5/2) - 33% at distance, but maybe a cut below
E - #1 Cambria Queen (8-1) - 3-6 in money at distance, but maybe a cut below as well
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,9/2,9,4/2,9,4,5,1 = $12
$1 - 4/2,9 = $2 - Hit $14.10
Race 9 - 5-1/2 Claiming - Action
A - #6 Emma's Kiss (5-1) - Ness goes to great turf rider, jockey/trainer 35%, nice class drop - Winner $8.60
B - #10 Just Christina (4-1) - always runs well, good speed #'s, like the early speed - Second
C - #14 Shanana (15-1) - good class drop and speed #'s, wide is a concern
D - #11 Grazezing (8-1) - class drop, good speed #'s, should sit close, good post for style
E - #4 Trixie Minor (9/2) - good turf 3's, but the 81 was earned while on the lead, 1stw/trn 27%, chance if speed fails
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #6 - Hit $8.60
This pick 4 sequence is tough. I've listed a couple of different ticket options depending on how deep you want to go.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - 1mi Claiming - Weak
A - #8 Voce Del Leone (5-1) - Winner $9.40
B - #3 Trappist Monk (6-1)
C - #13 Caldo Cat (9/2)
D - #9 Anzio Adam (12-1) - Second
E - #4 Quatorze Royalty (4-1)
Suggested Plays:
Pick 4 - Races 6,7,8,9
Winning Ticket - 8 / 5 / 4 / 6
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9 / 6,10,14 = $18
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14 = $27 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11 = $54 - Hit $245.35
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,3,13 / 4,5,3 / 2,9,4 / 6,10,14,11,4 = $67.5 - Hit $245.35
I'd play the $18 or $27 bet. As wide open as a few of these races are, I'm not sure it is worth the risk by putting more money into it.
Race 7 - 5-1/2f OC - Action
A - #4 Private Tour (3-1) - Has early speed, like post for running style, good speed #'s
B - #5 Hamp (4-1) - Woodbine shipper, good speed #'s, back to preferred surface - Winner
C - #3 Gas Tank (7/2) - Back to best surface, Cnl maiden break was very impressive, early speed - Second
D - #2 Video Store (5/2) - No turf experience, but has proven can run and nice work pattern, coming off layoff
E - #6 Over and Back (10-1) - No turf experience, good 1st claim %, shipping from good track, early speed - Third
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 4,5/4,5,3,2 = $6 - Hit $23.90
Race 8 - 1mi Claiming - Play
A - #2 Forever Tango (7/2) - Like the speed, may get uncontested lead, good wins at distance, class drop
B - #9 Sweet N Nutty (3-1) - Nice post for running style, ships from classier tracks, 6-7 in money at distance, class drop - Second
C - #4 Carrietta (4-1) - Will need some pace help, class drop, good speed #'s, likes Lrl - Winner
D - #5 Italian Nany (5/2) - 33% at distance, but maybe a cut below
E - #1 Cambria Queen (8-1) - 3-6 in money at distance, but maybe a cut below as well
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,9/2,9,4/2,9,4,5,1 = $12
$1 - 4/2,9 = $2 - Hit $14.10
Race 9 - 5-1/2 Claiming - Action
A - #6 Emma's Kiss (5-1) - Ness goes to great turf rider, jockey/trainer 35%, nice class drop - Winner $8.60
B - #10 Just Christina (4-1) - always runs well, good speed #'s, like the early speed - Second
C - #14 Shanana (15-1) - good class drop and speed #'s, wide is a concern
D - #11 Grazezing (8-1) - class drop, good speed #'s, should sit close, good post for style
E - #4 Trixie Minor (9/2) - good turf 3's, but the 81 was earned while on the lead, 1stw/trn 27%, chance if speed fails
Suggested Plays:
$2 - Win #6 - Hit $8.60
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Laurel Park - Saturday 9-15-2012 Selections
Updated for Scratches.
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6 - Play listed in race 4.
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 6.
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 7.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
First Post 1:10pm
Race 1 - 7f Maiden Claiming - Play
A - #2 Cu Soonerthanlater (5-1) - Has potential to get an easy lead - Second
B - #3 Aviation Show (8/5) - Class drop, good speed #'s, but didn't like notes from last out - Winner
C - #6 Love Hero (7/2) - was wide last out and closed gap, like trainer #'s - Third
D - #4 Running Game (6-1)
E - #7 Pounce Into Spring (10-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4 - Hit $8.80
$1 - 2,6/2,6 = $2
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #4 Tappinintovictory (9/5) - good speed and speed #'s, class drop, in money 6-10 at this distance - Winner $3.40
B - #1 Smiling Jordan (5/2) - good speed #'s, class drop and likes Laurel - Third
C - #3 Albrecht (3-1) - Has some speed, in money 12-15 at this distance - Second
D - #5 Warrensburg (8-1) - a good closer
E - #6 Siegfried (6-1) - a good closer
Suggested Plays:
With a lot of Play races on the card you may want to skip this one.
$1 - 4,1/4,1 = $2
$1 - 4/3,5 = $2 - Hit $6.20
Race 4 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Play
A - #1a Graysonia (2-1) - Third
B - #5 Bellissima Luna (5/2) - Winner
C - #4 Love to the Max (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Access Love (4-1)
E - #6 Daddyroe (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 1a,5/1a,5 = $4
$1 - 1a/4 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 1a,5/1a,5,4/1a,5,4,3,6 = $12 - Hit $63.40
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$0.50 - 1a,5 / 6,10,1 / 2,3,6 = $9
Race 5 - 5-1/2f OC TURF- Play
A - #6 Carole's Love (4-1) - Really like the early speed at this distance at Laurel, class drop
B - #10 Magical Merry (5-1) - Good speed #'s, should get good stalking trip from post, class drop - Third
C - #1 High Cry (3-1) - 3 for 6 wins at this distance, class drop, should be there at finish
D - #3 Kitten Love (9/2) - Has got some speed, class drop 3 for 3 in money at distance, a cut below top 3 - Second
E - #5 Allwewantforxmas (10-1) - used for some value, 2 for 4 in money at distance, early speed
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,10/6,10 = $4
$1 - 6/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 6,10/6,10,1/6,10,1,3,5 = $12
Race 6 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Play
A - #3 Peeds in a Pod (9/2) - Third
B - #2 Lunar Rock (3-1) - Winner
C - #6 One More Cat (5/2)
D - #4 Heat Press (4-1) - Second
E - #5 Love's Not Fair (5-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4
$1 - 2,3/6 = $2
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $67.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $135
Race 7 - 5-1/2f Claiming TURF - Play
A - #8 Simple Exchange (7/5) - seems best, but worried running style may hurt here
B - #9 Jungle Juice (5-1) - speed, could very well win
C - #6 Break the Record (6-1) - speed, ships in from SAR - Second
D - #7 Flip the Switch (10-1) - good value for Trifecta - Third
E - #12 Charli Sunshine (12-1) - good value for TrifectaSuggested Plays:
$2 - 8,9/8,9 = $4
$1 - 8,9/6 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 8,9/8,9,6/8,9,6,7,12 = $12
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $22.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $45
Race 8 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Weak
A - #5 Coco Knows (6-1)
B - #7 D C Dancer (5/2) - Winner
C - #6 Indian Bucks (3-1) - Second
D - #2 Thurmont (12-1)
E - #1 Ski Pole (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
No plays, too wide open
Race 9 - 7f OC - Prime
A - #8 Hurricane Girl (Even) - speed drawn outside, seems easily the best. Even money maybe an overlay! - Winner $3.80
B - #1 Brushed by Love (9/2) - likes laurel, good speed #'s and class drop, forgive last out
C - #4 Banner Elk Lady (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Parade of Homes (12-1) - Third
E - #7 Namaskara (7/2) - this horse is a huge questions mark, therefore covering in mulit-race bets
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 8/1,4,3 = $6 - Hit $14.00
- OR -
$1 - 8/1,4,3/1,4,3,7 = $9 - Hit $30.70
$1 - 8/1,4,7/1,4,7 = $6 (can play this trifecta for add for value)
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi All Brandy 100K Stakes TURF - Action
A - #10 Daydreamin Gracie (9/2) - lone speed - Third
B - #1 Charged Cotton (4-1) - moving forward, if gets good trip will be likely winner - Winner
C - #3 Balitmore Belle (9/5) - winner if fires best run, like works, may need a race
D - #2 Access to Charlie (12-1) - like works, good turf rider
E - #7 Grant Park (8-1) - good closer, should get a clear trip - Second
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,1/10,1 = $4
$1 - 10,1/3 = $2
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6 - Play listed in race 4.
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 6.
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10 - Play listed in race 7.
I've given 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
First Post 1:10pm
Race 1 - 7f Maiden Claiming - Play
A - #2 Cu Soonerthanlater (5-1) - Has potential to get an easy lead - Second
B - #3 Aviation Show (8/5) - Class drop, good speed #'s, but didn't like notes from last out - Winner
C - #6 Love Hero (7/2) - was wide last out and closed gap, like trainer #'s - Third
D - #4 Running Game (6-1)
E - #7 Pounce Into Spring (10-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4 - Hit $8.80
$1 - 2,6/2,6 = $2
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi Alw - Action
A - #4 Tappinintovictory (9/5) - good speed and speed #'s, class drop, in money 6-10 at this distance - Winner $3.40
B - #1 Smiling Jordan (5/2) - good speed #'s, class drop and likes Laurel - Third
C - #3 Albrecht (3-1) - Has some speed, in money 12-15 at this distance - Second
D - #5 Warrensburg (8-1) - a good closer
E - #6 Siegfried (6-1) - a good closer
Suggested Plays:
With a lot of Play races on the card you may want to skip this one.
$1 - 4,1/4,1 = $2
$1 - 4/3,5 = $2 - Hit $6.20
Race 4 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Play
A - #1a Graysonia (2-1) - Third
B - #5 Bellissima Luna (5/2) - Winner
C - #4 Love to the Max (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Access Love (4-1)
E - #6 Daddyroe (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 1a,5/1a,5 = $4
$1 - 1a/4 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 1a,5/1a,5,4/1a,5,4,3,6 = $12 - Hit $63.40
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$0.50 - 1a,5 / 6,10,1 / 2,3,6 = $9
Race 5 - 5-1/2f OC TURF- Play
A - #6 Carole's Love (4-1) - Really like the early speed at this distance at Laurel, class drop
B - #10 Magical Merry (5-1) - Good speed #'s, should get good stalking trip from post, class drop - Third
C - #1 High Cry (3-1) - 3 for 6 wins at this distance, class drop, should be there at finish
D - #3 Kitten Love (9/2) - Has got some speed, class drop 3 for 3 in money at distance, a cut below top 3 - Second
E - #5 Allwewantforxmas (10-1) - used for some value, 2 for 4 in money at distance, early speed
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,10/6,10 = $4
$1 - 6/1 = $1
- OR -
$1 - 6,10/6,10,1/6,10,1,3,5 = $12
Race 6 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Play
A - #3 Peeds in a Pod (9/2) - Third
B - #2 Lunar Rock (3-1) - Winner
C - #6 One More Cat (5/2)
D - #4 Heat Press (4-1) - Second
E - #5 Love's Not Fair (5-1)
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 2,3/2,3 = $4
$1 - 2,3/6 = $2
Pick 5 - Races 6,7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $67.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 3,2,6 / 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $135
Race 7 - 5-1/2f Claiming TURF - Play
A - #8 Simple Exchange (7/5) - seems best, but worried running style may hurt here
B - #9 Jungle Juice (5-1) - speed, could very well win
C - #6 Break the Record (6-1) - speed, ships in from SAR - Second
D - #7 Flip the Switch (10-1) - good value for Trifecta - Third
E - #12 Charli Sunshine (12-1) - good value for TrifectaSuggested Plays:
$2 - 8,9/8,9 = $4
$1 - 8,9/6 = $2
- OR -
$1 - 8,9/8,9,6/8,9,6,7,12 = $12
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8 / 10,1,3 = $22.50
- OR -
$0.50 - 8,9,6 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 8,7 / 10,1,3 = $45
Race 8 - 6f Md Sp Wght - Weak
A - #5 Coco Knows (6-1)
B - #7 D C Dancer (5/2) - Winner
C - #6 Indian Bucks (3-1) - Second
D - #2 Thurmont (12-1)
E - #1 Ski Pole (6-1)
Suggested Plays:
No plays, too wide open
Race 9 - 7f OC - Prime
A - #8 Hurricane Girl (Even) - speed drawn outside, seems easily the best. Even money maybe an overlay! - Winner $3.80
B - #1 Brushed by Love (9/2) - likes laurel, good speed #'s and class drop, forgive last out
C - #4 Banner Elk Lady (6-1) - Second
D - #3 Parade of Homes (12-1) - Third
E - #7 Namaskara (7/2) - this horse is a huge questions mark, therefore covering in mulit-race bets
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 8/1,4,3 = $6 - Hit $14.00
- OR -
$1 - 8/1,4,3/1,4,3,7 = $9 - Hit $30.70
$1 - 8/1,4,7/1,4,7 = $6 (can play this trifecta for add for value)
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi All Brandy 100K Stakes TURF - Action
A - #10 Daydreamin Gracie (9/2) - lone speed - Third
B - #1 Charged Cotton (4-1) - moving forward, if gets good trip will be likely winner - Winner
C - #3 Balitmore Belle (9/5) - winner if fires best run, like works, may need a race
D - #2 Access to Charlie (12-1) - like works, good turf rider
E - #7 Grant Park (8-1) - good closer, should get a clear trip - Second
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,1/10,1 = $4
$1 - 10,1/3 = $2
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