Monday, November 3, 2014

Our Par Ratings Crushed the BC Dirt Races

Last night I sat down and added up the results of my par ratings and the results are awesome.  

Note - I only produced par ratings for 6 of the dirt races.  I didn't feel like I had enough data to accurately give them on the turf races.

OM = Finished Out of the Money

BC Juvenile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #9 Carpe Deim 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #9 Carpe Diem 103 (2nd), #7 Texas Red 100 (1st), #6 Lucky Player 100 (OM)
#7 Texas Red paid $29.80 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $50.30

BC Dirt Mile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st), #2 Tapiture 103 (2nd)
#1 Goldencents paid $3.40 to win
$1 Exacta 1/9 paid $7.10

BC Distaff
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd), #2 Tiz Midnight 101 (OM), #9 Ria Antonia 101 (4th), #10 Untapable 100 (1st)
#10 Untapable paid $5.20 to win
$1 Exacta 10/7 paid $13.50

BC F&M Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
No winning bets.

BC Sprint

Top Last Race Par Rating - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM), #4 Secret Circle 102 (2nd), #13 Work All Week 102 (1st)
#13 Work All Week paid $40.20 to win
$1 Exacta 13/4 paid $122.70

BC Classic
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Bayern 108 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Bayern 108 (1st), #9 Toast of New York 106 (2nd), #12 Candy Boy 103 (OM), #13 California Chrome 101 (3rd)
#7 Bayern paid $14.20 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $124.90
$1 Trifecta 7/9/13 paid $1043.60

So here is where the rubber meets the road:
Had you placed at $2 win bet on the highest last race Par Rating to win in each race listed above you would have won 2 out of 6, #1 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (paid $3.40) and #7 Bayern in the Classic (paid $14.20).  The cost would have been $14 with a total payout of $17.60 for a +26% ROI.

Had you placed a $2 win bet on any last race par rating that was par
(100) or greater you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races.  They were the Classic, Dirt Mile, Distaff, Juvenile and Sprint.  The cost would have been $36 with a total payout of $92.80 for a +158% ROI.

Had you boxed any horse that ran par
(100) or greater in a $1 Exacta box, you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races.  It would have cost you $40 with a total payout of $318.50 for a +696% ROI.

In any of the races where there were at least 3 runners that ran par
(100) or greater in their last race, had you boxed those horses in a $1 Trifecta  box you would have cashed tickets in 1 out of 4 races (hit in the BC Classic).  It would have cost you $60 with a total payout of $1043.60 for a +1639% ROI.

Very pleased with how my numbers turned out!


Saturday, November 1, 2014

11/1 Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Saturday

Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead.  Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers?  How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race

Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!  Find out more on our website

Let our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide help you handicap the races by showing you stats, trends and positive ROI plays over the last 20 years of Breeders' Cup races.

Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide 

Updated 1:40pm EST.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 

Mulitrace Bets
Daily Double - Races 5,6
$2 - 3 / 3 $2
$2 - 3 / 3,6,7 = $6
$2 - 3,4,10 / 3 = $6
$2 - 3,4,10 / 3,6,7 = $18

Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 3,4 / 3,5 / 5,10,2,11 = $8
$0.50 - 3,4,10 / 3,5,7 / 5,10,2,11 = $18

Pick 3 - Races 10,11,12
$0.50 - 12,6,8,1 / 2,5,4 / 13,6 = $12
$0.50 - 12,6,8,1 / 2,5,4 / 13,6,11,9 = $24

Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies G1 - Action+
A - #5 Cristina's Journey (6-1) - has some early speed and caught the eyes of the clockers.  Will need to move forward but recent sharp workouts suggest she is ready.
B - #2 Angela Renee (3-1) - won her last out with a nice figure a repeat of that effort could win here
C - #8 Puca (6-1) - finished strong in her latest workout, expect she is sitting on a big race.  Needs a step forward to win, but that is not a stretch
D - #4 Conquest Eclipse (4-1) - was very happy while working, closed well last out while earning a nice figure, win chance
E - #11 Top Decile (10-1) - would add some value to exotics, but wonder how her off pace style will work with this group

Multi-Race Horses:  5,2,8,4

Race Notes:  Could be value in a bunch of mid priced horses.  Several Exacta boxes may work well with the lack of a few clear cut horses.
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 5,2,8 / 5,2,8 = $6
$1 - 5,2,4 / 5,2,4 = $6
$1 - 5,2,11 / 5,2,11 = $6

Race 5 - 1-1/4 miles Breeders' Cup F&M Turf G1 - Play
A - #3 Dank (5/2) - looking to repeat and appears to coming back to her form, which makes her extremely dangerous here, multiple G1 winner that ran well above par while winning this race last year
B - #4 Dayatthespa (8-1) - clocker report says he has never seen her better than in her latest workouts, will be up front trying to hold on in the stretch
C - #10 Stephanie's Kitten (3-1) - it's feast or famine with this horse, but would hate to get beat by her knowing she can turn in good performances, multiple G1 winner
D - #6 Fiesolana (8-1) - G1 winner looked sharp while blowing out, offers good value with a legitimate shot
E - #2 Just The Judge (5-1) - closes well and has 2 G1 wins, exotic use

Multi-Race Horses:  3,4,10
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 3,4 / 3,4 = $4
$1 - 3,4 / 10,6,2,8 = $8
$1 - 10,6,2,8 / 3,4 = $8

Race 6 - 7f Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint G1 - Play
A - #3 Stonetastic (8-1) - Has looked great training and has some serious speed out of the gate. Is going after her first Grade 1 and her early foot will set her up as the one to catch. Top Selection.
B - #5 Artemis Agrotera (3-1) - Has won two Grade 1's and is 2 for 2 at this distance. Has some early speed and still manages to hang around at the end. Is 5 of 7 lifetime. Good win chance.
C - #7 Judy The Beauty (5/2) - Second last year to Groupie Doll and on her best day would take this field, but she'll have to prove it again today. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #6 Leigh Court (4-1) - Great race in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, she took over and pulled away in the stretch. But, she got a great pace setup that day and there are others in here with speed that can likely hang on. Exotics use.
E - #1 Sweet Reason (9/2) - Has two Grade 1 wins and runs well at this distance.  Is 2 for 2 at this distance.  Not sure her style fits for a win, but could definitely land in the exotics.  Heard her last workout was ok, but not great.  Underneath exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses:  3,5,7
Race Notes:  Looks like the top 3 are the best in here with Stonetastic offering the best value.
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 3,5,7 / 3,5,7 = $6
$1 - 3,5 / 3,5,7,6,1,9,10 = $12

Race 7 - 6-1/2f Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint G1 (Downhill) - Action+
A - #5 Ambitious Brew (12-1) - like what I've heard from the clockers and he owns a win over this course, like that Smith is riding as CA jockeys are familiar with how to ride this downhill course, lots of value
B - #10 Home Run Kitten (12-1) - has worked well and owns 2 wins on this downhill course, including his maiden win, is 4 for 6 on the Sa turf and always in the money, definite contender
C - #2 Silentio (8-1) - fits the profile of horses that like this downhill course, that is milers that are cutting back.  Don't forget this guy was just 1-1/2 lengths behind Wise Dan in the turf mile last year.  Would not be a surprise winner.
D - #11 Undrafted (8-1) - is drawn well, has a top rider and has the right style, exotics use
E - #13 Casper Netscher (10-1) - another horse that is drawn will with the right style for this course, exotics use

Multi-Race Horses: 5,10,2,11
Race Notes:  Several horses could win this, but it is important that the inside post position can be a hindrance as horses collapse over crossing the dirt as they straighten out.  Lots of value here.
Suggest Plays:

With odds that high, Win bets on the top 3 - #5, #10, #2

Race 8 - 1-1/16 mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 - Action+
A - #9 Carpe Diem (4-1) - After wrestling between Calculator, Souper Colossal and Daredevil, I landed on Carpe Diem as my top selection. His last race at Keeneland was better than the speed figure shows and he drew off well clear of the field. He fits several stat categories with high percentage winners. There are a few others in here he'll have to deal with, but I think he has an excellent chance - Top Selection.
B - #8 Souper Colossal (12-1) - Have heard several good reports about how this horse is working and galloping in the mornings. He needs a step forward, but those reports suggest he's ready to take that step. Win chance, exotics definite.
C - #
12 Daredevil (7/2) - Would have liked this horse as a win candidate if he wasn't parked so far outside. He is likely to be favored and taking a shot against him the Exacta pool could pay nicely. Plus, he has only run on a wet track and only at Belmont. Will he like a dry track as much and away from Belmont? There are several questions he must answer. With that said, he was a dominate winner of the Champagne, has shown no signs of regression off that effort and he fits several high percentage stats. Going to try to beat him in the win category and possibly in the Exacta. Small win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #
6 Lucky Player (30-1) - This horse has value written all over him. First, his sire Lookin at Lucky was 2nd by a neck in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and then he went on to win divisional honors as a 3 year old after winning several races that included the Preakness and the Haskell. When I watched the replay of the Iroquois Stakes, the way Lucky Player won by fighting off multiple challengers in the stretch was very reminiscent of his sires 2010 Preakness win. Not sure he can win, but to me he screams exotic value.
E - #13 Upstart (8-1) - bad post, but may best rest, exotics use

Scratched Selections: #1 Calculator

Multi-Race Horses: 9,8,1
Race Notes:  Trying to beat Daredevil considering his bad post and only races have been in the slop at Belmont.
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 9,8,12 / 9,8,12 = $6
$1 - 9,8,12 / 9,8,12,6,13 = $12

Race 9 - 1-1/2 mile Breeders' Cup Turf G1 - Action
A - #1 Telescope (4-1) - several Euro handicappers really like this horse and is has been 100% in the money, plus the clockers like him, but he has yet to take down a G1
B - #4 Brown Panther (8-1) - a G1 winner that has run against some stiff competition, good win chance
C - #12 Main Sequence (6-1) - has won 3 G1 races in a row for trainer Graham Motion, but still maybe flying under the radar, win chance if everything breaks right, definite exotics use
D - #7 Flintshire (7/2) - fits based on class, exotics use
E - #3 Imagining (12-1) - value for a horse that has been in the Exacta 13 out of 19 starts, speed horses typically don't win the BC Turf, but if they forget about him up front he has the ability to take the all the way, regardless he offers value in the exotics

Multi-Race Horses: 1,4,12,7,3
Race Notes:  The top 3 look solid, but Flintshire and Imagining do have a win chance.
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 1,4,12 / 1,4,12,7,3 = $12

Race 10 - 6f Breeders' Cup Sprint G1 - Action +
A - #12 Fast Anna (12-1) - Has been burning up the track in his workouts, impressing several clockers and onlookers. He could be the speed of the speed and find himself all alone upfront after just a few jumps from the gate. In a big sprint race like this, I like a horse that has some really good speed and no doubt he fits the bill. Looking for him to out run them from the gate and head straight for the wire while running them off their feet. Pace duel would be the only downside, but this new surface has been kind to speed. Top Selection.
B - #6 Rich Tapestry (5-1) - Gobbled up ground last out to get the best of Goldencents, (who would probably be favored if he was running in this race). He's 4 for 5 at this distance and I heard his latest workout was good. Excellent win chance.
C - #8 Palace (6-1) - A consistent closer and if there are several horses that challenge for the lead he might find himself able to run down tiring horses. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #11 Bakken (10-1) - Seems to be coming into this race in good form. Last two races were pretty good, though they were against much lesser competition. Small win shot, definite exotics use.
E - #4 Secret Circle (9/2) - Defending champion returns to defend his title. He's worked well and I heard his gallop out was strong. He is 4 for 6 at this distance. But, Rich Tapestry inhaled him in the stretch last out. Not sure he can go back to back, but definite exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses:  12,6,8
Race Notes:  With the sharp workouts, I doubt Fast Anna will be 12-1, that would be some serious value!
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 12,6,8 / 12,6 = $4
$1 - 12,6 / 12,6,8,11,4 = $8

Race 11 - 1 mile Breeders' Cup Turf Mile G1 - Action+
A - #2 Obviously (8-1) - I'm hoping they forget about this horse that is 8 for 12 at this distance, he'll be on the lead and if they let him get loose he can be really dangerous at a price
B - #5 Toronado (5/2) - Euro is a multiple G1 winner and a definite contender
C - #4 Mustajeeb (6-1) - has run some good races and is flying under the radar, win/exotics use
D - #12 Seek Again (6-1) - G1 winner is 50% on the turf, will be trying to run them down in the stretch, exotics use
E - #11 Sayaad (30-1) - was just 1-1/4 lengths behind a game Wise Dan in the Shadwell last out, may get first run on leaders at a big price, exotics booster

Multi-Race Horses:  2,5,4
Race Notes:  Several mid price horses may provide lots of value, esp. if Toronado doesn't fire.
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 2,5,4 / 2,5,4,12,11 = $12

Race 12 - 1-1/4 miles Breeders' Cup Classic G1 - Play
A - #13 California Chrome (4-1) - Immediately following the Pennsylvania Derby I thought California Chrome came into that race one race short of what he needed and I didn't like he's chances in the BC Classic. For the next few weeks I had him has my 4th or 5th choice in the Classic. But then I started hearing really good reports, including one clocker who I respect that said he looks better now than during the Triple Crown. He's been full of energy and his connections seem very loose and happy about how he is coming into this race, which is in contrast to comments Art Sherman made before the Belmont. This tells me he has rounded back into form and could be sitting on a huge race. In the last few weeks I have slowly moved him up the ladder and tried to find every way to come up with a different top selection. But, if he is in top form he'll be tough to beat. He figures to get first run on the leaders, which means Shared Belief and Tonalist will have to get to him in the stretch. I'd rather be in front in the stretch with a good horse than have to run one down to win. Top Selection.
B - #6 Shared Belief (9/5) - Hard to knock a horse that is undefeated in 7 starts and is only a 3 year old with 2 wins over older horses already. He was very wide throughout the Awesome Again, but still put on his game face to run down Fed Biz who had a perfect trip along the rail. It's possible that he may not like the dirt as well as synthetic, but it is also possible that he would have won the Awesome Again by open lengths had he not been forced to run 4-5 wide throughout the entire race. Has a some minor questions to answer, but he brings the goods every time he races and there is no reason to think he want do the same here. Good win chance, definite exotics horse.
C - #11 Tonalist (5-1) - 3 of his 4 wins have come at Belmont Park, so the question is whether he can carry that form to Santa Anita. He was not able to do it this summer at Saratoga, but he's matured some since then so this could be a different ball game. He'll have no problem with the 1-1/4 mile distance and if he can get a clear look at the finish line in the stretch he could be dangerous. Good win shot, definite exotics use.
D - #9 Toast of New York (12-1) - Could be a little bit of a question mark, but I think he'll handle the dirt just fine. I'm not sure he is better than Shared Belief or California Chrome, but he is a definite contender at a good price.
E - #8 Zivo (15-1) - Is doing very well in the mornings. Not sure his style will work well as a win candidate, but he very well close into the exotics and offer some value. Exotics use.

Exotic Use for Trifecta's / Superfecta's:
#2 Cigar Street - Another horse that has made a good impression on the clockers. He's taking a big class jump and he figures to sit just behind the speed. Will need a big step forward to win, but exotics are possible where he would offer some value. Underneath exotics use.
#1 Prayer For Relief (30-1) - Is 21 out of 33 lifetime in the Trifecta. Have heard great things about how he is training leading up to the race. Romans said he should run the best race of his career. Not sure that is good enough to win, but he could plod along into exotics and give them a huge boost. Don't see him winning, but definite exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 13,6,11,9
Race Notes:  Tried not to get too cute, the top horses in here seem the best of this bunch.
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 13,6,11 / 13,6,11 = $6
$1 - 13,6,9 / 13,6,9 = $6
$1 - 13,6 / 13,6,8,2,1 = $8
$1 - 11,9 / 11,9 = $4