The Kentucky Derby 100 Point Qualifying Races is now available!
Races included in this guide are the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial.
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the last 21 years, 9 winners of the Florida Derby had odds of 5-1 or greater.
Just like our previous guides, the analysis and stats in this guide
will help you include or eliminate horses as you design your wagers for
these races. Click the link below for more information or to purchase
the guide.
Purchase the Kentucky Derby 100 Point Races Guide
Our Stats Guide includes:
High Percentage Key Horses for Exotics
Post Position Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Our Exclusive Par Ratings
How to Purchase the Guide
The 2015 Kentucky Derby 100 Point Races Guide may be purchased for $30.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you may
purchase the guide either securely through our online store or by
phone. We accept all major credit cards and PayPal. The guide is in
.pdf format.
Purchase Link: Purchase the Kentucky Derby 100 Point Races Guide
Pre-Order the Triple Crown Stat Guides!
These two guides will contain detailed stats for Kentucky Derby,
Preakness, Belmont Stakes and the Kentucky Oaks. Stats in the guide
will include our analysis, positive ROI stats, high percentage key horse
stats, our Strike System, Par Ratings and much more! For more
information or to Pre-Order Click Here or go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Saturday, March 14, 2015
3/14 - Oaklawn Rebel Day & Santa Anita Stakes Races
Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
I have a FREE stats guide for the San Felipe, Gotham & Tampa Bay Derby available to download on my website. It includes payouts, post positions, post time favorites, last race track, last race finish, past winners and much more. To download the guide go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Triple Crown & 100 Point Races Stats Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including positive ROI Stats, our analysis and our exclusive Par Ratings. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Pre Scratches.
Note - Not sure of the condition of the track at Oaklawn. I handicapped these based on a dry track. Please adjust your plays according to your own predictions for a wet track.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Oaklawn Park
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Azeri G2- Play
A - #1 Untapable (1/2) - Certainly her best lays over this field and her BC Distaff win was solid. Had we seen a race like that from her this season she would certainly be a single in this field. But, a few questions remain, will she come back as good at 4 years old, some fillies don't. How will she handle a wet track (if it is indeed muddy)? if you are going to try to beat her, then today is likely the best chance to do that. However, she greatly outclasses this field and I don't believe Asmussen is just looking for a good effort in this race.
B - #4 Gold Medal Dancer (10-1) - She seems to be moving in the right direction and if a horse is going to beat Untapable I think it will be done by a horse that sits close to the pace. Tough challenge, but good exotics horse.
C - #5 Mufajaah (4-1) - I like the improvement last out, but I'm not sure I like her style in this race. Still she'll be closing late. Upset chance, definite exotics use. Loves Oaklawn Park!
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 1 / 4,5 = $10
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Razorback Handicap G3 - Action+
A - #5 Race Day (7/2) - His last race at GP was a good start to the season and when Pletcher ships to Op he normally means business. Several in here to like, but this is a definite contender.
B - #1 Tapiture (5/2) - I love this horse and you get a good performance each time he runs. His effort to run down Goldencents in the BC Dirt Mile was good one, though he fell short. He can beat this field, but he'll need to fire fresh. Win contender, exotics use.
C - #6 Carve (3-1) - Ran a great race last out here at Op. I like the improvement, but he has never paired back to back triple digit beyers. He's 4 of 7 at Op and 50% at this distance. He'll need his best, but he can beat these. Win contender, exotics use.
D - #7 Ride On Curlin (3-1) - He' hasn't run bad and has a lot of class, but I'm not sure I like his style to win here. Good exotics candidate.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,1,6 / 5,1,6 = $6
$1 - 5,1 / 5,1,6,7,4 = $8
Race 10 - 1-1/16mi Rebel Stakes G2 - Play
A - #4 American Pharoah (1/2) - If he runs to 80% he'll beat this field. But he'll need to prove it being his debut start in 2015. He should handle the wet track, but that will be a question that needs to be answered. Strong win candidate.
B - #2 MadefromLucky (6-1) - I really like his style and his sire was Preakness winner. Upset chance, if something goes wrong for American Pharoah. Definite exotics use.
C - #1 The Truth Or Else (4-1) - Exotics use.
D - #5 Bold Conquest (8-1) - Is interesting in here. He's got some talent, but he is likely going to be coming from off the pace. Not sure he can make up the ground. Good exotics horse.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,2
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 4 / 2,1,5 = $15
$2 - 4 / 6 = $2
Santa Anita Park
Race 5 - 6-12f Irish O'Brien Stakes DOWNHILL TURF - Action+
A - #4 Go West Marie (2-1) - Can really close and if you compare her opening fractions to her closing fractions she is a few lengths better than most in here. Good win chance.
B - #6 Velvet Mesquite (9/5) - Is probably the most likely candidate to beat Go West Marie based on her closing ability compared to her opening fractions. Win candidate, exotics use.
C - #1 Bert's Melody (8-1) - Good exotics horse based on her love of the Sa turf and he cut back in distance. Possibly upset chance, good exotics boost.
D - #7 Star Field (6-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,6,1 / 4,6,1 = $6
$1 - 4,6,1 / 4,6,1,7 = $9
Race 8 - 1-1/8 Santa Margarita G1 - Action
A - #3 Dame Dorothy (5/2) - May sit the right trip in a race that appears wide open on paper. Is interesting that Pletcher ships out here.
B - #7 Warren's Veneda (2-1) - Has got some class having won a G2 last out. Pace in front would help. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #2 Cassatt (3-1) - If she can get things her own way she would be a good play, but there is some other speed in here. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #4 Thegirlinthatsong (9/2) - The other G2 winner in the field. Maybe a win chance, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,7,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,7,2 / 3,7,2,4 = $9
Good Luck!
I have a FREE stats guide for the San Felipe, Gotham & Tampa Bay Derby available to download on my website. It includes payouts, post positions, post time favorites, last race track, last race finish, past winners and much more. To download the guide go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Triple Crown & 100 Point Races Stats Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including positive ROI Stats, our analysis and our exclusive Par Ratings. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Pre Scratches.
Note - Not sure of the condition of the track at Oaklawn. I handicapped these based on a dry track. Please adjust your plays according to your own predictions for a wet track.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Oaklawn Park
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Azeri G2- Play
A - #1 Untapable (1/2) - Certainly her best lays over this field and her BC Distaff win was solid. Had we seen a race like that from her this season she would certainly be a single in this field. But, a few questions remain, will she come back as good at 4 years old, some fillies don't. How will she handle a wet track (if it is indeed muddy)? if you are going to try to beat her, then today is likely the best chance to do that. However, she greatly outclasses this field and I don't believe Asmussen is just looking for a good effort in this race.
B - #4 Gold Medal Dancer (10-1) - She seems to be moving in the right direction and if a horse is going to beat Untapable I think it will be done by a horse that sits close to the pace. Tough challenge, but good exotics horse.
C - #5 Mufajaah (4-1) - I like the improvement last out, but I'm not sure I like her style in this race. Still she'll be closing late. Upset chance, definite exotics use. Loves Oaklawn Park!
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 1 / 4,5 = $10
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Razorback Handicap G3 - Action+
A - #5 Race Day (7/2) - His last race at GP was a good start to the season and when Pletcher ships to Op he normally means business. Several in here to like, but this is a definite contender.
B - #1 Tapiture (5/2) - I love this horse and you get a good performance each time he runs. His effort to run down Goldencents in the BC Dirt Mile was good one, though he fell short. He can beat this field, but he'll need to fire fresh. Win contender, exotics use.
C - #6 Carve (3-1) - Ran a great race last out here at Op. I like the improvement, but he has never paired back to back triple digit beyers. He's 4 of 7 at Op and 50% at this distance. He'll need his best, but he can beat these. Win contender, exotics use.
D - #7 Ride On Curlin (3-1) - He' hasn't run bad and has a lot of class, but I'm not sure I like his style to win here. Good exotics candidate.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,1,6 / 5,1,6 = $6
$1 - 5,1 / 5,1,6,7,4 = $8
Race 10 - 1-1/16mi Rebel Stakes G2 - Play
A - #4 American Pharoah (1/2) - If he runs to 80% he'll beat this field. But he'll need to prove it being his debut start in 2015. He should handle the wet track, but that will be a question that needs to be answered. Strong win candidate.
B - #2 MadefromLucky (6-1) - I really like his style and his sire was Preakness winner. Upset chance, if something goes wrong for American Pharoah. Definite exotics use.
C - #1 The Truth Or Else (4-1) - Exotics use.
D - #5 Bold Conquest (8-1) - Is interesting in here. He's got some talent, but he is likely going to be coming from off the pace. Not sure he can make up the ground. Good exotics horse.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,2
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 4 / 2,1,5 = $15
$2 - 4 / 6 = $2
Santa Anita Park
Race 5 - 6-12f Irish O'Brien Stakes DOWNHILL TURF - Action+
A - #4 Go West Marie (2-1) - Can really close and if you compare her opening fractions to her closing fractions she is a few lengths better than most in here. Good win chance.
B - #6 Velvet Mesquite (9/5) - Is probably the most likely candidate to beat Go West Marie based on her closing ability compared to her opening fractions. Win candidate, exotics use.
C - #1 Bert's Melody (8-1) - Good exotics horse based on her love of the Sa turf and he cut back in distance. Possibly upset chance, good exotics boost.
D - #7 Star Field (6-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6,1
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,6,1 / 4,6,1 = $6
$1 - 4,6,1 / 4,6,1,7 = $9
Race 8 - 1-1/8 Santa Margarita G1 - Action
A - #3 Dame Dorothy (5/2) - May sit the right trip in a race that appears wide open on paper. Is interesting that Pletcher ships out here.
B - #7 Warren's Veneda (2-1) - Has got some class having won a G2 last out. Pace in front would help. Win chance, exotics use.
C - #2 Cassatt (3-1) - If she can get things her own way she would be a good play, but there is some other speed in here. Win chance, exotics use.
D - #4 Thegirlinthatsong (9/2) - The other G2 winner in the field. Maybe a win chance, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,7,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,7,2 / 3,7,2,4 = $9
Good Luck!
Friday, March 13, 2015
FREE - Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
Our FREE Stats Guide for the Rebel Stakes is now available!
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the last 21 years, 7 winners of the Rebel Stakes had odds of 5-1 or higher.
Just like the Triple Crown Stat Guides, the analysis and stats in this guide will help you include or eliminate horses as you design your wagers for these races.
Download the Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
Our Stats Guide includes:
High Percentage Key Horses for Exotics
Post Position Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Our Exclusive Par Ratings
How to Download the Guide
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can download the guide by entering your email address. The guide is in .pdf format.
Download Link:
Download the Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
Pre-Order the Triple Crown and 100 point Kentucky Derby Prep Race Guides!
These two guides will contain detailed stats for Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes and the 100 point Prep Races, plus the Kentucky Oaks. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, our Strike System, Par Ratings and much more! For more information or to Pre-Order Click Here or go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the last 21 years, 7 winners of the Rebel Stakes had odds of 5-1 or higher.
Just like the Triple Crown Stat Guides, the analysis and stats in this guide will help you include or eliminate horses as you design your wagers for these races.
Download the Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
Our Stats Guide includes:
High Percentage Key Horses for Exotics
Post Position Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Our Analysis of the Stats
Our Exclusive Par Ratings
How to Download the Guide
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can download the guide by entering your email address. The guide is in .pdf format.
Download Link:
Download the Rebel Stakes Stats Guide
Pre-Order the Triple Crown and 100 point Kentucky Derby Prep Race Guides!
These two guides will contain detailed stats for Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes and the 100 point Prep Races, plus the Kentucky Oaks. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, our Strike System, Par Ratings and much more! For more information or to Pre-Order Click Here or go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Saturday, March 7, 2015
3/7 - Santa Anita - San Felipe & Santa Anita Handicap Day
Bet Cost $78 / Return $117.30 - ROI +50%
San Felipe, Gotham & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide
I have a FREE stats guide for the San Felipe, Gotham & Tampa Bay Derby available to download on my website. It includes payouts, post positions, post time favorites, last race track, last race finish, past winners and much more. To download the guide go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Triple Crown & 100 Point Races Stats Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including positive ROI Stats, our analysis and our exclusive Par Ratings. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi San Felipe Stakes G2 - Action+
A - #3 Dortmund (8/5) - There are certainly horses in here that could jump up and beat him, but he has stepped up to the plate every time. I don't see any reason to go against him in here. He's 2 for 2 at this distance and at Sa and the way he fought back last out in the stretch when he looked beaten suggest he's got a will to win. Solid favorite.
B - #7 Bolo (6-1) - A new player to the Triple Crown trail. He's proven on Turf, but he'll need to transform that to the dirt. I've heard a lot of buzz around him. I think he has a chance in a field that seems really over matched. However, I did find it interesting that Smith stayed with Ocho Ocho Ocho. May offer some value.
C - #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho (4-1) - Keeps Mike Smith aboard and is undefeated on this track and at this distance. This is his first race as a 3 year old so he has lots to prove, but if he continues his 2014 form he'll be in the mix.
D - #1 Lord Nelson (4-1) - Likes this track, but will need to prove he can successfully stretch out in distance.
E - #6 Prospect Park (4-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,7,2
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 3 / 7,2 = $6
$2 - 3 / 7,2,1,6 = $8 HIT $14.00
$1 - 7,2 / 3 = $2
Race 8 - 1 Mile China Doll Stakes TURF - Action
A - #2 She's a Big Winner (4-1) - May be able to slip away on the front end, plus she is 1 of just 2 horses that have won in non graded stakes company.
B - #8 Bobbi Grace (3-1) - Proved she can close on the turf last out and I'm sure Stevens will give her a good trip. Would not be a surprise, definite exotics use.
C - #6 Lutine Belle (8-1) - Being the only other horse in the field to have beaten non graded stakes competition I thought she held a little value. Good exotics boost.
D - #7 Spirit of Xian (8-1) - Not sure she'll go off at 8-1, but based on her down the hill race she could mix it up.
E - #12 Mio Me (15-1) - Plenty of exotics boost here and is really on the same level as my 3rd and 4th choices.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8,6,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,8,6 / 2,8,6 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 2,8,6,7,12 = $8
Race 9 - 7f San Carlos Stakes G2 - Play
A - #1 Chitu (2-1) - I don't see much value here and the top 2 selections are very much the most likely winners. He'll have to go early with the #1 post position, but he's got some serious speed and we know he can hold it. His recent works suggest Baffert has him tuned up for his 2015 debut.
B - #4 Conquest Two Step (5/2) - Has run well in G1 and G2 competition. Will be interested to see if he can repeat big effort last out where he beat Secret Circle. 2 back he was only beaten a neck by Shared Belief,. so he's got some class.
C - #7 Wild Dude (3-1) - Is the next likely choice should the top 2 selection fail. Definite exotics use.
D - #6 El Nino Terrible (12-1) - He'll be on the lead or breathing down Chitu's neck, the question is how far will he fade. He could hang around for an exotics spot and provide some value.
E - #3 Majestic City (12-1) - Don't see him winning, but an exotics spot is not out of the question. He's 12 out of 22 in the Trifecta.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1,4 / 1,4 = $6
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4,7,6,3 = $8
Race 10 - 1mi Frank E. Kilroe Mile TURF G1 - Action
A - #3 Winning Prize (4-1) - It's his first out this year, but he's got the class including a win in this race last year. Plus we know he loves Sa and this distance.
B - #8 Summer Front (7/2) - Will need to fire fresh, but I don't think Clement would enter him here if he wasn't ready. His best will beat these and some pace would help his chances.
C - #10 Ring Weekend (8-1) - This 4 year old is making his 2015 debut, but he found a home on the turf last year. If Motion placed him here, then I think he is ready. Good exotics boost.
D - #9 Home Run Kitten (8-1) - He can close, but some pace would definitely help his chances. Exotics use.
E - #11 Za Approval (6-1) - He has a great closing kick and Smith on board doesn't hurt. He'll need that same punch he had in 2013, but I'm not sure he's quite as good now. Good exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,8,10,9,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,8 / 3,8,10 = $4
$1 - 3,8,10 / 3,8,10,9,11 = $12 HIT $38.50
Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Santa Anita Handicap G1 - Prime
A - #5 Shared Belief (3/5) - If he runs to any of his recent form this will be a paid workout. All he needs is a good trip from Smith, which he is likely to get even though he'll definitely have a target on his back. Very strong win candidate based on his class.
B - #6 Moreno (6-1) - Probably the only horse in the field with an upset chance. He'll go to the lead and try to hang on.
C - #12 Catch a Flight (12-1) - Offers some exotic value. He's won on this track and at this distance. Exotics boost.
D - #3 Sr. Quisqueyano (10-1) - Ran a triple digit beyer last out even though it was against state breds. Exotics.
E - #13 Hard Aces (12-1) - Ran a triple digit beyer last out while winning a small non graded stakes race. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$10 - 5 / 6 = $10 HIT $54.00
$2 - 5 / 6,12,3,13 = $8 HIT $10.80
Good Luck!
San Felipe, Gotham & Tampa Bay Derby Stats Guide
I have a FREE stats guide for the San Felipe, Gotham & Tampa Bay Derby available to download on my website. It includes payouts, post positions, post time favorites, last race track, last race finish, past winners and much more. To download the guide go to www.bigdaystats.com.
Triple Crown & 100 Point Races Stats Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including positive ROI Stats, our analysis and our exclusive Par Ratings. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi San Felipe Stakes G2 - Action+
A - #3 Dortmund (8/5) - There are certainly horses in here that could jump up and beat him, but he has stepped up to the plate every time. I don't see any reason to go against him in here. He's 2 for 2 at this distance and at Sa and the way he fought back last out in the stretch when he looked beaten suggest he's got a will to win. Solid favorite.
B - #7 Bolo (6-1) - A new player to the Triple Crown trail. He's proven on Turf, but he'll need to transform that to the dirt. I've heard a lot of buzz around him. I think he has a chance in a field that seems really over matched. However, I did find it interesting that Smith stayed with Ocho Ocho Ocho. May offer some value.
C - #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho (4-1) - Keeps Mike Smith aboard and is undefeated on this track and at this distance. This is his first race as a 3 year old so he has lots to prove, but if he continues his 2014 form he'll be in the mix.
D - #1 Lord Nelson (4-1) - Likes this track, but will need to prove he can successfully stretch out in distance.
E - #6 Prospect Park (4-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,7,2
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 3 / 7,2 = $6
$2 - 3 / 7,2,1,6 = $8 HIT $14.00
$1 - 7,2 / 3 = $2
Race 8 - 1 Mile China Doll Stakes TURF - Action
A - #2 She's a Big Winner (4-1) - May be able to slip away on the front end, plus she is 1 of just 2 horses that have won in non graded stakes company.
B - #8 Bobbi Grace (3-1) - Proved she can close on the turf last out and I'm sure Stevens will give her a good trip. Would not be a surprise, definite exotics use.
C - #6 Lutine Belle (8-1) - Being the only other horse in the field to have beaten non graded stakes competition I thought she held a little value. Good exotics boost.
D - #7 Spirit of Xian (8-1) - Not sure she'll go off at 8-1, but based on her down the hill race she could mix it up.
E - #12 Mio Me (15-1) - Plenty of exotics boost here and is really on the same level as my 3rd and 4th choices.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8,6,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,8,6 / 2,8,6 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 2,8,6,7,12 = $8
Race 9 - 7f San Carlos Stakes G2 - Play
A - #1 Chitu (2-1) - I don't see much value here and the top 2 selections are very much the most likely winners. He'll have to go early with the #1 post position, but he's got some serious speed and we know he can hold it. His recent works suggest Baffert has him tuned up for his 2015 debut.
B - #4 Conquest Two Step (5/2) - Has run well in G1 and G2 competition. Will be interested to see if he can repeat big effort last out where he beat Secret Circle. 2 back he was only beaten a neck by Shared Belief,. so he's got some class.
C - #7 Wild Dude (3-1) - Is the next likely choice should the top 2 selection fail. Definite exotics use.
D - #6 El Nino Terrible (12-1) - He'll be on the lead or breathing down Chitu's neck, the question is how far will he fade. He could hang around for an exotics spot and provide some value.
E - #3 Majestic City (12-1) - Don't see him winning, but an exotics spot is not out of the question. He's 12 out of 22 in the Trifecta.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1,4 / 1,4 = $6
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4,7,6,3 = $8
Race 10 - 1mi Frank E. Kilroe Mile TURF G1 - Action
A - #3 Winning Prize (4-1) - It's his first out this year, but he's got the class including a win in this race last year. Plus we know he loves Sa and this distance.
B - #8 Summer Front (7/2) - Will need to fire fresh, but I don't think Clement would enter him here if he wasn't ready. His best will beat these and some pace would help his chances.
C - #10 Ring Weekend (8-1) - This 4 year old is making his 2015 debut, but he found a home on the turf last year. If Motion placed him here, then I think he is ready. Good exotics boost.
D - #9 Home Run Kitten (8-1) - He can close, but some pace would definitely help his chances. Exotics use.
E - #11 Za Approval (6-1) - He has a great closing kick and Smith on board doesn't hurt. He'll need that same punch he had in 2013, but I'm not sure he's quite as good now. Good exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,8,10,9,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,8 / 3,8,10 = $4
$1 - 3,8,10 / 3,8,10,9,11 = $12 HIT $38.50
Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Santa Anita Handicap G1 - Prime
A - #5 Shared Belief (3/5) - If he runs to any of his recent form this will be a paid workout. All he needs is a good trip from Smith, which he is likely to get even though he'll definitely have a target on his back. Very strong win candidate based on his class.
B - #6 Moreno (6-1) - Probably the only horse in the field with an upset chance. He'll go to the lead and try to hang on.
C - #12 Catch a Flight (12-1) - Offers some exotic value. He's won on this track and at this distance. Exotics boost.
D - #3 Sr. Quisqueyano (10-1) - Ran a triple digit beyer last out even though it was against state breds. Exotics.
E - #13 Hard Aces (12-1) - Ran a triple digit beyer last out while winning a small non graded stakes race. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5
Suggest Plays:
$10 - 5 / 6 = $10 HIT $54.00
$2 - 5 / 6,12,3,13 = $8 HIT $10.80
Good Luck!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)