Belmont Park Course Stats Guide - Now Available!
Our Belmont Course Stats Guide is now available from Big Day Stats, Inc. It offers course stats by post position, surface, distance and class. Jockey and Trainer stats by surface, distance and class. Shipper and Post Time Favorite stats broken out by surface and race type. Average payouts by race type along with handicapping tips and analysis of the stats. Example: Out of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
For more information about this guide, visit our website at BigDayStats.com
2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide - Available October 13th!
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1-1/16 mile Zenyatta G1 - Play
A - #4 Beholder (1/2) - by far the most accomplished in this field with 4 G1 wins. She figures to be up close to the pace and it doesn't hurt your feelings that Mike Smith took over for Stevens. - WIN $2.80
B - #1 Tiz Midnight (8-1) - has posted some sharp workouts and figures to be a pace presence.
C - #2 Iotapa (2-1) - should sit a good stalking trip, runs well at Sa and this distance.
D - #3 Yahilwa (10-1) - could mix up the exotics.
Finish Order: 4-1-2-3
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4 / 1,2 / 1,2,3 = $12 - HIT $27.00
$1 - 4 / 1,2,3 / 1,2 = $4 - HIT $9.00
Race 6 - 1-1/16 mile FrontRunner G1 - Action+
A - #7 American Pharoah (8/5) - looks like a solid favorite based off recent outs and work tab on the Sa surface. His sire doesn't hurt his chances either. - WIN $3.00
B - #2 Lord Nelson (8-1) - like the work tab
C - #8 Conquest Panthera (8-1) - might sit a good trip with Smith in the irons
D - #4 Daddy D T (6-1)
E - #5 Red Button (20-1)
Finish Order: 7-10-1-2
Multi-Race Horses: 7,2,8
Suggest Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/4 mile Rodeo Drive G1 TURF - Action
A - #7 Emollient (6-1) - landed here because she has some great form when she shows up and Mott is willing to ship her and I have great respect for where he places his horses. - WIN $8.40
B - #1 Cozze Up Lady (10-1) - I like the early speed in this field.
C - #9 Irish Mission (6-1) - could sit the right trip and has some good speed figures
D - #13 Miss Serendipity (4-1) - not crazy about the post position, but fits well with this bunch
E - #8 Parranda (6-1) - really likes the Sa turf
Finish Order: 7-8-6-9
Multi-Race Horses: 7,1,9,13
Suggest Plays:
There is value all over the place in here, esp. if you have some clarity on a winner. I do not. Boxing may be a good idea here. A decent play maybe:
$1 - 7,1,9 / 7,1,9 = $6
$1 - 7,1,13 / 7,1,13 = $6
$1 - 7,9,13 / 7,9,13 = $6
Race 8 - 1-1/8 mile Awesome Again G1 - Play
A - #4 Shared Belief (3/5) - looks very solid coming into this race. A good race here and he'll be the clear favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Justifiable favorite. - WIN $2.40
B - #6 Majestic Harbor (5-1) - looks to be the main threat should something go wrong for Shared Belief
C - #1 Fed Biz (6-1) - I like the early speed, but this doesn't seem like the right race for him. Exotics.
D - #2 Sky Kingdom (15-1) - Exotics boost.
E - #8 Imperative (6-1) - Exotics use.
Finish Order: 4-1-5-6
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4 / 6,1 / 6,1 = $6
$1 - 4 / 6,1 / 6,1,2,8 = $6
$1 - 4 / 2,8 / 6,1 = $4
Race 10 - 1-1/16 Chandelier G1 - Action
A - #4 Angela Renee (3-1) - has some proven form over a dirt surface, but will just need to stretch it out. - WIN $7.20
B - #1 Sunday Sonnet (6-1) - speed and proven dirt form.
C - #6 Maybellene (8-1) - like the work tab
D - #2 Conquest Eclipse (7/2) - like the work tab
E - #10 Dad's Princess (8-1)
Finish Order: 4-2-3-11
Multi-Race Horses:
Suggest Plays:
Good luck!
Saturday, September 27, 2014
9/27 Belmont Park - Jockey Club Gold Cup Day
Belmont Park Course Stats Guide - Now Available!
Our Belmont Course Stats Guide is now available from Big Day Stats, Inc. It offers course stats by post position, surface, distance and class. Jockey and Trainer stats by surface, distance and class. Shipper and Post Time Favorite stats broken out by surface and race type. Average payouts by race type along with handicapping tips and analysis of the stats. Example: Out of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
For more information about this guide, visit our website at BigDayStats.com
2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide - Available October 13th!
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Note: As I was typing up these selections I realized I forgot to handicap Race #4 the Grade 2 Kelso Stakes. After a quick glance at it #7 Itsmyluckyday (4/5) is the obvious choice based on current form. I would not be scared to single him or key him on top in exotic bets.
Race 5 - 1-1/8 mi Beldame G1 - Action+
A - #5 Fiftyshadesofhay (9/2) - Returns to Bel where she won the G2 Ruffian early this year. I like the work pattern and anytime Bob Baffert ships with a strong work tab it is a good sign. Very live with a decent price.
B - #7 Belle Gallantey (7/2) - Like the outside post for her running style. She be close to the pace if not on the lead. Has run good enough speed figures to win and likes the Bel surface.
C - #3 Stopchargingmaria (5/2) - has won two G1's back to back and is 3 for 3 at this distance. Still she'll need to repeat her top speed figure to win here. She's likely to be the favorite, but is very vulnerable.
D - #4 Stanwyck (3-1) - Will be coming from off the pace, but I'm not sure there will be enough pace for her to run into for the win. Exotics.
E - #2 Toasting (8-1) - has run well at Bel with a good speed figure last out. Still, her off the pace style will not do her any favors here. Seems a cut below the best in here. Exotics.
Finish Order: 7-3-1-4
Multi-Race Horses: 5,7,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,7 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 5,7 / 3,4,2 = $6 - HIT $22.70
Race 7 - 1-1/4 mile Flower Bowl G1 TURF - Action+
A - #9 Stephanie's Kitten (5/2) - probably has the best form in the race and she can really close based on her last 1/4 mile fractions. However, I'm not crazy about the post position and the lack of speed in the race. - WIN $4.40
B - #4 Strathnaver (4-1) - Another horse that has good closing fractions, off the pace running style could be an issue with the lack of speed. Missed G1 win by a nose here in June.
C - #7 Alterite (8-1) - won the G1 Garden City of this course in 2013, but will need a form reversal from last out.
D - #1 Abaco (7/2) - has always been the in exacta on the Bel Turf, another off the pace running that can really close.
E - #3 Viva Rafaela (5-1) - appears to be the lone speed in the race, however she always seems to give up the goods in the stretch, even when she has things here own way with an easy lead. Exotics.
Finish Order: 9-1-3-6
Multi-Race Horses: 9,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,4,7 / 9,4,7 = $6
$1 - 9,4 / 9,4,7,1,3 = $8 - HIT $9.10
Race 8 - 6f Vosburgh G1 - Play
A - #6 Happy My Way (3-1) - This really feels like a two horse race, either HMW is going to establish good position and kick on in the stretch for the win. Or, he is going to tire which would set the race up for Palace.
B - #1 Palace (2-1) - With all the speed should benefit his stalker style. He'll just need to work out a trip from the inside. Strong win candidate.
C - #7 Private Zone (7/2) - Should show some early speed, it's really a question of how well that early speed will hold and at Belmont that is usually pretty good.
D - #5 Dad Caps (12-1) - this grade 1 winner should sit close to the pace and offers some good exotic value.
E - #4 Salutos Amigos (6-1) - stalker style will help, but seems a cut below these based on class.
Finish Order: 7-5-1-4
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6,1 / 6,1 = $6
$1 - 6,1 / 7,5,4 = $6
Race 9 - 1-1/2 mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 - Action
A - #5 Main Sequence (2-1) - is probably the most likely winner. Has won two G1's back to back while posting good speed figures and with issues at the start. Always like Graham Motion on the turf. - WIN $5.90
B - #1 Big Blue Kitten (5/2) - has a pair of G1 wins and really likes the Bel turf, will be closing from off the pace.
C - #2 Twilight Eclipse (4-1) - just barely missed a G1 win 2 races back. Looks to cover up just behind the leaders and try to find some running room turning for home.
D - #3 Imagining (3-1) - has got some good G1 class which includes a win over this surface. Should be stalking the pace.
E - #1a Real Solution (5/2) - another G1 winner, but will need his A game and he tends to throw some clunkers.
Note: Though the 1 and 1a are a coupled selection, I separated them in my selections in case of a scratch.
Finish Order: 5-2-3-1
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,2,3 (seems like a wide open race amongst top 4)
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/4 mile Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 - Play
A - #8 Tonalist (4-1) - returns to the site of his two best lifetime performances and he's 2 for 2 over this surface. I think he moves up over this surface and I really like him on a horse for course angle. Also, I think the outside post position fits him well. - WIN $8.10
B - #3 Wicked Strong (3-1) - just missed holding off V. E. Day by a nose for his second G1 win last out. Has proven to be hard to hold off in the stretch.
C - #11 Moreno (7/2) - Though his speed figures are the best, he has never been able to carry his speed 1-1/4 miles and the horse to his outside could press him early. Exotics.
D - #4 Zivo (6-1) - loves the Bel surface, he'll be coming from off the pace which doesn't make him a great win candidate in this field. Exotics use.
E - #5 Prayer for Relief (15-1) - this 6 year old hard knocker is always a good exotics booster and he consistently runs in the money at some juicy prices. Like the sharp last work. Exotics boost.
Finish Order: 8-4-6-9
Multi-Race Horses: 8,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,3 / 8,3 / 11,4,5 = $12
$1 - 8,3 / 11,4,5 / 8,3 = $6
$0.50 - 8,3 / 11,4,5 / 11,4,5 = $6
Good luck!
Our Belmont Course Stats Guide is now available from Big Day Stats, Inc. It offers course stats by post position, surface, distance and class. Jockey and Trainer stats by surface, distance and class. Shipper and Post Time Favorite stats broken out by surface and race type. Average payouts by race type along with handicapping tips and analysis of the stats. Example: Out of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
For more information about this guide, visit our website at BigDayStats.com
2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide - Available October 13th!
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Note: As I was typing up these selections I realized I forgot to handicap Race #4 the Grade 2 Kelso Stakes. After a quick glance at it #7 Itsmyluckyday (4/5) is the obvious choice based on current form. I would not be scared to single him or key him on top in exotic bets.
Race 5 - 1-1/8 mi Beldame G1 - Action+
A - #5 Fiftyshadesofhay (9/2) - Returns to Bel where she won the G2 Ruffian early this year. I like the work pattern and anytime Bob Baffert ships with a strong work tab it is a good sign. Very live with a decent price.
B - #7 Belle Gallantey (7/2) - Like the outside post for her running style. She be close to the pace if not on the lead. Has run good enough speed figures to win and likes the Bel surface.
C - #3 Stopchargingmaria (5/2) - has won two G1's back to back and is 3 for 3 at this distance. Still she'll need to repeat her top speed figure to win here. She's likely to be the favorite, but is very vulnerable.
D - #4 Stanwyck (3-1) - Will be coming from off the pace, but I'm not sure there will be enough pace for her to run into for the win. Exotics.
E - #2 Toasting (8-1) - has run well at Bel with a good speed figure last out. Still, her off the pace style will not do her any favors here. Seems a cut below the best in here. Exotics.
Finish Order: 7-3-1-4
Multi-Race Horses: 5,7,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,7 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 5,7 / 3,4,2 = $6 - HIT $22.70
Race 7 - 1-1/4 mile Flower Bowl G1 TURF - Action+
A - #9 Stephanie's Kitten (5/2) - probably has the best form in the race and she can really close based on her last 1/4 mile fractions. However, I'm not crazy about the post position and the lack of speed in the race. - WIN $4.40
B - #4 Strathnaver (4-1) - Another horse that has good closing fractions, off the pace running style could be an issue with the lack of speed. Missed G1 win by a nose here in June.
C - #7 Alterite (8-1) - won the G1 Garden City of this course in 2013, but will need a form reversal from last out.
D - #1 Abaco (7/2) - has always been the in exacta on the Bel Turf, another off the pace running that can really close.
E - #3 Viva Rafaela (5-1) - appears to be the lone speed in the race, however she always seems to give up the goods in the stretch, even when she has things here own way with an easy lead. Exotics.
Finish Order: 9-1-3-6
Multi-Race Horses: 9,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,4,7 / 9,4,7 = $6
$1 - 9,4 / 9,4,7,1,3 = $8 - HIT $9.10
Race 8 - 6f Vosburgh G1 - Play
A - #6 Happy My Way (3-1) - This really feels like a two horse race, either HMW is going to establish good position and kick on in the stretch for the win. Or, he is going to tire which would set the race up for Palace.
B - #1 Palace (2-1) - With all the speed should benefit his stalker style. He'll just need to work out a trip from the inside. Strong win candidate.
C - #7 Private Zone (7/2) - Should show some early speed, it's really a question of how well that early speed will hold and at Belmont that is usually pretty good.
D - #5 Dad Caps (12-1) - this grade 1 winner should sit close to the pace and offers some good exotic value.
E - #4 Salutos Amigos (6-1) - stalker style will help, but seems a cut below these based on class.
Finish Order: 7-5-1-4
Multi-Race Horses: 6,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6,1 / 6,1 = $6
$1 - 6,1 / 7,5,4 = $6
Race 9 - 1-1/2 mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 - Action
A - #5 Main Sequence (2-1) - is probably the most likely winner. Has won two G1's back to back while posting good speed figures and with issues at the start. Always like Graham Motion on the turf. - WIN $5.90
B - #1 Big Blue Kitten (5/2) - has a pair of G1 wins and really likes the Bel turf, will be closing from off the pace.
C - #2 Twilight Eclipse (4-1) - just barely missed a G1 win 2 races back. Looks to cover up just behind the leaders and try to find some running room turning for home.
D - #3 Imagining (3-1) - has got some good G1 class which includes a win over this surface. Should be stalking the pace.
E - #1a Real Solution (5/2) - another G1 winner, but will need his A game and he tends to throw some clunkers.
Note: Though the 1 and 1a are a coupled selection, I separated them in my selections in case of a scratch.
Finish Order: 5-2-3-1
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,2,3 (seems like a wide open race amongst top 4)
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/4 mile Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 - Play
A - #8 Tonalist (4-1) - returns to the site of his two best lifetime performances and he's 2 for 2 over this surface. I think he moves up over this surface and I really like him on a horse for course angle. Also, I think the outside post position fits him well. - WIN $8.10
B - #3 Wicked Strong (3-1) - just missed holding off V. E. Day by a nose for his second G1 win last out. Has proven to be hard to hold off in the stretch.
C - #11 Moreno (7/2) - Though his speed figures are the best, he has never been able to carry his speed 1-1/4 miles and the horse to his outside could press him early. Exotics.
D - #4 Zivo (6-1) - loves the Bel surface, he'll be coming from off the pace which doesn't make him a great win candidate in this field. Exotics use.
E - #5 Prayer for Relief (15-1) - this 6 year old hard knocker is always a good exotics booster and he consistently runs in the money at some juicy prices. Like the sharp last work. Exotics boost.
Finish Order: 8-4-6-9
Multi-Race Horses: 8,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,3 / 8,3 / 11,4,5 = $12
$1 - 8,3 / 11,4,5 / 8,3 = $6
$0.50 - 8,3 / 11,4,5 / 11,4,5 = $6
Good luck!
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Belmont Park Course Stats Guide - Now Available!
Did You Know-
Out of a sample of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
Ever wonder if the inside post positions have an advantage in a Belmont Park 1 mile dirt race? Or, is post position #1 really a bad post in a 6f dirt race? How about which jockeys ride turf races better? The answers to these questions and much more are detailed in our guide.
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
This Guide includes:
Course Stats for each surface by distance and post position
Post Time Favorite Stats
Shippers Stats
Jockeys Stats
Trainers Stats (with first time starters stats at Belmont)
Average Payouts
Handicapping Tips and Angles
Analysis of the Stats
This 27 page guide includes Course Stats for Belmont Park from sample of 767 races on both Dirt and Turf.
Our course stat guides help you to determine the stats that seem most useful to a specific race and then help you include or exclude horses while applying your own handicapping skills. Guide is in .pdf format.
How to Order
The Belmont Park Course Stats Guide may be purchased for $20.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can purchase any of our guides either securely online or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and Paypal.
Purchase Link:
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
Available October 13th! - 2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Out of a sample of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
Ever wonder if the inside post positions have an advantage in a Belmont Park 1 mile dirt race? Or, is post position #1 really a bad post in a 6f dirt race? How about which jockeys ride turf races better? The answers to these questions and much more are detailed in our guide.
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
This Guide includes:
Course Stats for each surface by distance and post position
Post Time Favorite Stats
Shippers Stats
Jockeys Stats
Trainers Stats (with first time starters stats at Belmont)
Average Payouts
Handicapping Tips and Angles
Analysis of the Stats
This 27 page guide includes Course Stats for Belmont Park from sample of 767 races on both Dirt and Turf.
Our course stat guides help you to determine the stats that seem most useful to a specific race and then help you include or exclude horses while applying your own handicapping skills. Guide is in .pdf format.
How to Order
The Belmont Park Course Stats Guide may be purchased for $20.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can purchase any of our guides either securely online or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and Paypal.
Purchase Link:
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
Available October 13th! - 2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
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