Saturday, July 26, 2014

7/26 - Saratoga Jim Dandy Stakes

Our Stat Guide Packages for the Jim Dandy, Haskell and Travers are now available!  These guides contain detailed stats for all these races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis.  To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website

Updated 11:45am.

Race Rating System-

I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Race 10 - 1-1/8 mile Jim Dandy Stakes G2 - Play
A - #4 Tonalist (8/5) - This race really sets up for him and if he runs back to his Peter Pan and Belmont form it will be though for anyone to beat him.  There is no pace in this race, so Rosario may decide to put him on the lead early.  Even if he is not on the lead he is going to sit closer to the pace than Wicked Strong which means he get first jump on the leaders.  He's unbeaten at this distance and he is only 1 of 2 horses in the field with a triple digit speed figure.  He's going to be tough to beat here.

B - #7 Wicked Strong (2-1) - He's the obvious second choice.  He ran a triple digit speed figure in the Wood Memorial and was only beaten 1-3/4 lengths when he closed on the outside to dead heat with California Chrome for 4th in the Belmont Stakes.  He needs some pace to run at and I'm not sure he'll get it here.  But still, he seems a cut above most of these from a class standpoint.

C - #2 Legend (12-1) - In looking for some value in the exotics he may provide a boost.  He should sit close to the pace in a paceless race and may not fade out of the exotics.  He's unproven at 1-1/8 miles, but he's run some decent speed figures which could put him in the mix here.  Exotics value.

D - #5 Kid Cruz (5-1) - I like this horse, but there just doesn't seem to be enough pace for him to run into given that he is a stone closer.  He may land in the exotics, but I don't see him beating Tonalist or Wicked Strong given the pace scenerio.

E - #3 Ulanbator (15-1) - Another horse that likes to close from off the pace, maybe bottom end exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses: 
Suggest Plays:

$3 - 4 / 7 / 2,5,3 = $9
$2 - 4 / 2,5,3 / 7 = $6
$1 - 7 / 4 / 2,5,3 = $3 - HIT $16.20