After watching replays and hearing/watching workout reports here is where I have landed today on my derby contenders as of 4-24-2012.
My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
Creative Cause - This
horse got the best of Bodemeister earlier in the year. Though
admittedly Bodemeister wasn't as developed as he is now. I like the way
Creative Cause closes late and if they can get him to stop worrying
about the crowd he could be a real threat. In the SA derby he seemed to get distract early in the stretch and by the time he got to the task of running I'll have another was already matching strides.
Union Rags - Given
the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse
gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a
horse he is. Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate
the extra distance. I think he closes like a derby horse. I liked the workout at Keeneland, 4f in 47.40. Seems like the classic work pattern. I'll be interested to hear what the clockers say once he gets to Churchill.
Bodemeister
- Very impressive win in the Arkansas Derby. A run like that in
Kentucky and there is your derby winner! A little worried if he has to
rate in the derby, but I like that he has Mike Smith riding him. One note about Bodemeister going forward, if he goes to the Preakness, I think he will love that track!
Dullahan
- Another horse who closes like a derby winner and it doesn't hurt your
feelings that Kent Desormeaux is riding. Strong in the Blue Grass,
though I do think he had some pace help with Hansen's faster splits.
Gemologist - Stubborn
late in the Wood Memorial to hold off Alpha. Coming off the 2nd turn I
didn't think he looked as visually impressive as some others on this
list, but the way he fought back and held off a closing Alpha definitely
caused my eyebrows to raise.
Hansen - I
really don't think he can get the derby, save for a few other horses
having a terrible trip. That being said we do know that he likes
Churchill and I do expect him to run well in the derby. I definitely
plan to use him in my exotics. However, I will say I was impressed with
his faster splits and he still held strong for second. Also, it didn't
seem like Dominguez was riding Hansen hard late and I'm sure that was
on purpose.
I'll Have Another - This is a horse I have recently moved up after watching SA Derby again. I like the way he fought game in the stretch.
Daddy Nose Best - Clockers have liked the way he is working, which might mean he could take a big step forward.
More to come next week after more workouts from Churchill Downs!
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Post Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes Thoughts
Well we certainly saw some great races this weekend and though it didn't change the graded earnings race for the derby much, it definitely shook up the race for who will be the favorite of the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister not only got himself in the derby with an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, he may have very well solidified himself as the favorite. Below I've listed my top Kentucky Derby contenders along with some notes on why I like them.
My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
1) Creative Cause - This horse got the best of Bodemeister earlier in the year. Though admittedly Bodemeister wasn't as developed as he is now. I like the way Creative Cause closes late and if they can get him to stop worrying about the crowd he could be a real threat.
2) Union Rags - Given the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a horse he is. Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate the extra distance. I think he closes like a derby horse.
3) Bodemeister - Very impressive win in the Arkansas Derby. A run like that in Kentucky and there is your derby winner! A little worried if he has to rate in the derby, but I like that he has Mike Smith riding him.
4) Dullahan - Another horse who closes like a derby winner and it doesn't hurt your feelings that Kent Desormeaux is riding. Strong in the Blue Grass, though I do think he had some pace help with Hansen's faster splits.
5) Gemologist - Stubborn late in the Wood Memorial to hold off Alpha. Coming off the 2nd turn I didn't think he looked as visually impressive as some others on this list, but the way he fought back and held off a closing Alpha definitely caused my eyebrows to raise.
6) Hansen - I really don't think he can get the derby, save for a few other horses having a terrible trip. That being said we do know that he likes Churchill and I do expect him to run well in the derby. I definitely plan to use him in my exotics. However, I will say I was impressed with his faster splits and he still held strong for second. Also, it didn't seem like Dominguez was riding Hansen hard late and I'm sure that was on purpose.
My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
1) Creative Cause - This horse got the best of Bodemeister earlier in the year. Though admittedly Bodemeister wasn't as developed as he is now. I like the way Creative Cause closes late and if they can get him to stop worrying about the crowd he could be a real threat.
2) Union Rags - Given the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a horse he is. Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate the extra distance. I think he closes like a derby horse.
3) Bodemeister - Very impressive win in the Arkansas Derby. A run like that in Kentucky and there is your derby winner! A little worried if he has to rate in the derby, but I like that he has Mike Smith riding him.
4) Dullahan - Another horse who closes like a derby winner and it doesn't hurt your feelings that Kent Desormeaux is riding. Strong in the Blue Grass, though I do think he had some pace help with Hansen's faster splits.
5) Gemologist - Stubborn late in the Wood Memorial to hold off Alpha. Coming off the 2nd turn I didn't think he looked as visually impressive as some others on this list, but the way he fought back and held off a closing Alpha definitely caused my eyebrows to raise.
6) Hansen - I really don't think he can get the derby, save for a few other horses having a terrible trip. That being said we do know that he likes Churchill and I do expect him to run well in the derby. I definitely plan to use him in my exotics. However, I will say I was impressed with his faster splits and he still held strong for second. Also, it didn't seem like Dominguez was riding Hansen hard late and I'm sure that was on purpose.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Post Florida Derby Weekend Thoughts...
Florida Derby
If I could sum up Calvin Borel it would be a race thief. Purely for his ability to steal races and then cover it up with his nice cajun accent and smile. Whether coming through on the rail or on the front end he is a master at this, and hats off to Calvin for stealing another one with Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby. While all the other riders were worried about Union Rags and Julien Leparoux, Calvin simply put them to sleep through 3/4 in 1:12. It seemed all the jockeys forgot that they had to catch the leader to win. Down the backstretch Javier Castellano on El Padrino kept Union Rags in tight with no where to run. And it wasn't until in the stretch that Leparoux was able to find room to maneuver Union Rags into the clear, but by that time it was too late - Calvin had just made off with the goods!
Below are my trip notes and some thoughts going forward off this race:
Take Charge Indy - He got a lot of pace help while leading - 3/4 in 1:12. I don't think he'll like the added ground of the Derby and he is sure to be pressed for the lead. Though I do think TCI could be dangerous in the Preakness.
New Pending - What happened here? He broke extremely slow and then seemed to have no interest, though the slow pace didn't help his style, I did think he would finish a little better. One thing to note, watch for this horse to switch back to the grass at some point. His past performances suggest good grass style and Dale Romans has a good history with this dirt to turf angle - ie. Paddy O'Prado.
El Padrino - I've heard a lot of criticism for Javier Castellano's ride. Here's the way I see it: 1) Javier had ridden Union Rags in the past and I think he knew Union Rags was the horse to beat. He knew if he kept Union Rags bottled up then he would have first run and Leparoux would have to wait - smart race riding in my mind. 2) What Javier forget to pay attention to was the slow pace and thus when he asked El Padrino to run, Take Charge Indy still had a lot left in the tank.
Union Rags - My biggest concern when handicapping this race was that Javier would keep El Padrino on the outside of Union Rags, effectively bottling him up. Halfway down the backstretch I realized this was going to be the case and with a pace that seemed like they were crawling, I began to have doubts that Union Rags would be able to overcome both of these obstacles. And when Leparoux was only able to find running room for Union Rags after they turned for home I knew he was beaten. But, there were some positives that we should make a note of that will be a factor in the Ky Derby: 1) He had a horrible trip being bottled up against a slow pace and was really only able to run deep into the stretch. 2) Once he finally got to run Union Rags was the only horse closing on the leader late. Due to the slow pace the rest of the horses could not gain on a leader that looked fresh in the stretch after having things his own way for the entire race. 3) The added 1/8 of a mile distance in the Ky Derby will help Union Rags.
Race Notes: If Reveron was able to hang around for 2nd then you know the pace had to be slow. Remember your eyes will easily deceive you at the end of the race where a slow pace played a huge factor. Horses who may be running great will appear to be standing still thus not making up any ground because the leader still had enough in the tank to kick for home. While others like El Padrino stood still, Union Rags did cut into the lead.
Santa Anita Oaks
Willa B Awesome got a lot of pace help and caught Reneesgotzip at the wire. Reneesgotzip figured to run well after her disastrous first turn and then subsequently being rushed up to the lead in her last start. And she did run better, much better. If you watched the preview with Dan Illman and Mike Beer at drf.com, then Dan set this one up for you. And I hope Mike bought Dan the drink that was promised if Willa B Awesome won. In a 5 horse race with two standouts the $1 Trifecta paid $43.30! If you listened to Dan all you had to do was box Eden's Moon, Reneesgotzip and Will B Awesome for a total of $6 - unfortunately I did not listen to Dan.
My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
1) Union Rags - Given the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a horse he is. Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate the extra distance.
2) Creative Cause - I have liked this horse since I saw him run in the Norfolk stakes. More to come...
3) Hansen - A definite contender after what he showed in the Gotham. More to come...
4) El Padrino - given the added distance of the Ky Derby and pace of the Fla Derby I decided to leave him here for the moment
I'll have an update on my Contenders have the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass.
If I could sum up Calvin Borel it would be a race thief. Purely for his ability to steal races and then cover it up with his nice cajun accent and smile. Whether coming through on the rail or on the front end he is a master at this, and hats off to Calvin for stealing another one with Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby. While all the other riders were worried about Union Rags and Julien Leparoux, Calvin simply put them to sleep through 3/4 in 1:12. It seemed all the jockeys forgot that they had to catch the leader to win. Down the backstretch Javier Castellano on El Padrino kept Union Rags in tight with no where to run. And it wasn't until in the stretch that Leparoux was able to find room to maneuver Union Rags into the clear, but by that time it was too late - Calvin had just made off with the goods!
Below are my trip notes and some thoughts going forward off this race:
Take Charge Indy - He got a lot of pace help while leading - 3/4 in 1:12. I don't think he'll like the added ground of the Derby and he is sure to be pressed for the lead. Though I do think TCI could be dangerous in the Preakness.
New Pending - What happened here? He broke extremely slow and then seemed to have no interest, though the slow pace didn't help his style, I did think he would finish a little better. One thing to note, watch for this horse to switch back to the grass at some point. His past performances suggest good grass style and Dale Romans has a good history with this dirt to turf angle - ie. Paddy O'Prado.
El Padrino - I've heard a lot of criticism for Javier Castellano's ride. Here's the way I see it: 1) Javier had ridden Union Rags in the past and I think he knew Union Rags was the horse to beat. He knew if he kept Union Rags bottled up then he would have first run and Leparoux would have to wait - smart race riding in my mind. 2) What Javier forget to pay attention to was the slow pace and thus when he asked El Padrino to run, Take Charge Indy still had a lot left in the tank.
Union Rags - My biggest concern when handicapping this race was that Javier would keep El Padrino on the outside of Union Rags, effectively bottling him up. Halfway down the backstretch I realized this was going to be the case and with a pace that seemed like they were crawling, I began to have doubts that Union Rags would be able to overcome both of these obstacles. And when Leparoux was only able to find running room for Union Rags after they turned for home I knew he was beaten. But, there were some positives that we should make a note of that will be a factor in the Ky Derby: 1) He had a horrible trip being bottled up against a slow pace and was really only able to run deep into the stretch. 2) Once he finally got to run Union Rags was the only horse closing on the leader late. Due to the slow pace the rest of the horses could not gain on a leader that looked fresh in the stretch after having things his own way for the entire race. 3) The added 1/8 of a mile distance in the Ky Derby will help Union Rags.
Race Notes: If Reveron was able to hang around for 2nd then you know the pace had to be slow. Remember your eyes will easily deceive you at the end of the race where a slow pace played a huge factor. Horses who may be running great will appear to be standing still thus not making up any ground because the leader still had enough in the tank to kick for home. While others like El Padrino stood still, Union Rags did cut into the lead.
Santa Anita Oaks
Willa B Awesome got a lot of pace help and caught Reneesgotzip at the wire. Reneesgotzip figured to run well after her disastrous first turn and then subsequently being rushed up to the lead in her last start. And she did run better, much better. If you watched the preview with Dan Illman and Mike Beer at drf.com, then Dan set this one up for you. And I hope Mike bought Dan the drink that was promised if Willa B Awesome won. In a 5 horse race with two standouts the $1 Trifecta paid $43.30! If you listened to Dan all you had to do was box Eden's Moon, Reneesgotzip and Will B Awesome for a total of $6 - unfortunately I did not listen to Dan.
My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
1) Union Rags - Given the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a horse he is. Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate the extra distance.
2) Creative Cause - I have liked this horse since I saw him run in the Norfolk stakes. More to come...
3) Hansen - A definite contender after what he showed in the Gotham. More to come...
4) El Padrino - given the added distance of the Ky Derby and pace of the Fla Derby I decided to leave him here for the moment
I'll have an update on my Contenders have the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass.
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