4-24-2012 Top Derby Contenders

 After watching replays and hearing/watching workout reports here is where I have landed today on my derby contenders as of 4-24-2012.

My Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
Creative Cause - This horse got the best of Bodemeister earlier in the year.  Though admittedly Bodemeister wasn't as developed as he is now.  I like the way Creative Cause closes late and if they can get him to stop worrying about the crowd he could be a real threat.  In the SA derby he seemed to get distract early in the stretch and by the time he got to the task of running I'll have another was already matching strides.

Union Rags - Given the circumstances of the Fla Derby and that he was on the only horse gaining on the leader in the stretch, I think it shows how game of a horse he is.  Leparoux learned a lot and Union Rags should appreciate the extra distance.  I think he closes like a derby horse.  I liked the workout at Keeneland, 4f in 47.40.  Seems like the classic work pattern.  I'll be interested to hear what the clockers say once he gets to Churchill.

Bodemeister - Very impressive win in the Arkansas Derby.  A run like that in Kentucky and there is your derby winner!  A little worried if he has to rate in the derby, but I like that he has Mike Smith riding him.  One note about Bodemeister going forward, if he goes to the Preakness, I think he will love that track!

Dullahan - Another horse who closes like a derby winner and it doesn't hurt your feelings that Kent Desormeaux is riding.  Strong in the Blue Grass, though I do think he had some pace help with Hansen's faster splits.

Gemologist - Stubborn late in the Wood Memorial to hold off Alpha.  Coming off the 2nd turn I didn't think he looked as visually impressive as some others on this list, but the way he fought back and held off a closing Alpha definitely caused my eyebrows to raise.

Hansen - I really don't think he can get the derby, save for a few other horses having a terrible trip.  That being said we do know that he likes Churchill and I do expect him to run well in the derby.  I definitely plan to use him in my exotics.  However, I will say I was impressed with his faster splits and he still held strong for second.  Also, it didn't seem like Dominguez was riding Hansen hard late and I'm sure that was on purpose.

I'll Have Another - This is a horse I have recently moved up after watching SA Derby again.  I like the way he fought game in the stretch.

Daddy Nose Best - Clockers have liked the way he is working, which might mean he could take a big step forward.

More to come next week after more workouts from Churchill Downs!