Our Par Ratings Crushed the BC Dirt Races

Last night I sat down and added up the results of my par ratings and the results are awesome.  

Note - I only produced par ratings for 6 of the dirt races.  I didn't feel like I had enough data to accurately give them on the turf races.

OM = Finished Out of the Money

BC Juvenile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #9 Carpe Deim 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #9 Carpe Diem 103 (2nd), #7 Texas Red 100 (1st), #6 Lucky Player 100 (OM)
#7 Texas Red paid $29.80 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $50.30

BC Dirt Mile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st), #2 Tapiture 103 (2nd)
#1 Goldencents paid $3.40 to win
$1 Exacta 1/9 paid $7.10

BC Distaff
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd), #2 Tiz Midnight 101 (OM), #9 Ria Antonia 101 (4th), #10 Untapable 100 (1st)
#10 Untapable paid $5.20 to win
$1 Exacta 10/7 paid $13.50

BC F&M Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
No winning bets.

BC Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM), #4 Secret Circle 102 (2nd), #13 Work All Week 102 (1st)
#13 Work All Week paid $40.20 to win
$1 Exacta 13/4 paid $122.70

BC Classic
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Bayern 108 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Bayern 108 (1st), #9 Toast of New York 106 (2nd), #12 Candy Boy 103 (OM), #13 California Chrome 101 (3rd)
#7 Bayern paid $14.20 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $124.90
$1 Trifecta 7/9/13 paid $1043.60

So here is where the rubber meets the road:
Had you placed at $2 win bet on the highest last race Par Rating to win in each race listed above you would have won 2 out of 6, #1 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (paid $3.40) and #7 Bayern in the Classic (paid $14.20).  The cost would have been $14 with a total payout of $17.60 for a +26% ROI.

Had you placed a $2 win bet on any last race par rating that was par (100) or greater you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races.  They were the Classic, Dirt Mile, Distaff, Juvenile and Sprint.  The cost would have been $36 with a total payout of $92.80 for a +158% ROI.

Had you boxed any horse that ran par (100) or greater in a $1 Exacta box, you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races.  It would have cost you $40 with a total payout of $318.50 for a +696% ROI.

In any of the races where there were at least 3 runners that ran par (100) or greater in their last race, had you boxed those horses in a $1 Trifecta  box you would have cashed tickets in 1 out of 4 races (hit in the BC Classic).  It would have cost you $60 with a total payout of $1043.60 for a +1639% ROI.

Very pleased with how my numbers turned out!

Craig