2012 Breeders' Cup Friday Selections

This is where I'll be posting & updating Breeders' Cup Friday selections. Suggested Plays will be updated on race day after the scratches come out.  Check back I'm still handicapping, more to come...

Updated for Scratches.

Friday 11-2-2012 - Santa Anita

Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2
A - #6 Calidoscopio (8-1) - Mike Welsch has been high on this horse, has won at long distance on dirt - Winner $36.40
B - #10 Eldaafar (8-1) - Won this in 2010, seems to be in good form which makes him a contender
C - #1 Atigun (9/2) - should get this distance, but not sure he is better than top 2 - Third
D - #2 Fame and Glory (5-1) - Will get this distances, but has only run on Turf, should add some value
E - #7 Not Abroad (5-1) - May sit a good trip, view about the same as Atigun

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#5 Jaycito (6-1) - Like the horse, but distance maybe a questions, needs to prove to me
#14 Juniper Pass (30-1) - Has won at 1-1/2 miles at SA and 1-3/4 on Turf, great value in exotics

Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Calidoscopio (8-1)
#10 Eldaafar (8-1)
#1 Atigun (9/2)
#2 Fame and Glory (5-1)

Race Notes-
I feel fairly comfortable with my top 2, but this is the marathon so strange things can happen.  There is a real possibility to be able to spread here in the Exacta.  There will be tons of value in the Trifecta, but you may need to play small or spend a lot of money to be right.  Really going for and hoping for the value to be in the Exacta.  Crazy things happen in the Marathon.

Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 6,10,1/6,10,1 = $12
$1 - 6,10,1/2,7,5,14 - $12
$1 - 7,2/6,10,1 = $6



Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
A - #4 The Fugue (7/2) - Heard a lot of good about this horse, will get dist, was pointed for this race - Third
B - #10 Ridasiyna (4-1) - Seems to be moving fwd at right time, post maybe slight issue
C - #8 Nahrain (6-1) - should get a good trip, ran well in G1 last out at Bel
D - #9 Marketing Mix (9/2) - Owns a win in G1 at SA at 1-1/4 miles, 2 of 3 at distance, always A effort - Second
E - #2 Zagora (8-1) - Good horse, but in tough here, could mix up Exacta or Trifecta, view same as Marketing Mix - Winner

Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#6 Lady of Shamrock (12-1) - Like the longer works and have heard good things, will add value to exotics.

Multi-Race Horses-
#4 The Fugue (7/2)
#10 Ridasiyna (4-1)

Race Notes-
I think the Euro's will be hard to beat in here.  Zagora and Lady of Shamrock will offer some value if they can break into the exotics.  I really think Zagora and Marketing mix are about the same horse and should be played that way when betting.

Suggested Plays
Exacta
$5 - 4,10/4,10 = $10
$2 - 4,10/8,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,9,2/4,10 = $6
$1 - 4,10/6 = $2

Trifecta
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9/4,10,8,9 = $12
$1 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/4,10,8,9,2 = $24
$0.50 - 4,10/4,10,8,9,2/6 = $4
$0.50 - 4,10/6/4,10,8,9,2 = $4



Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Distaff/Ladies Classic G1
A - #6 Royal Delta (9/5) - Easily best with close to top effort, tough spot but can handle these - Winner $5.40
B - #4 Questing (4-1) - Other speed in race, but should try to run them off their feet, like in Alabama
C - #5 Awesome Feather (3-1) - Really good horse, but haven't face this tough before
D - #1 Grace Hall (10-1) - Could very well pick up pieces of a speed dual, value in a strong horse
E - #8 Love and Pride (8-1) - Will have to deal with Questing on front end, like the recent race at SA

Deep Exotics Use or Value Adds-
#2 My Miss Aurelia (4-1) - Great horse, but hasn't won at 1-1/8 miles, up against it, move fwd possible

Multi-Race Horses-
#6 Royal Delta (9/5)
#4 Questing (4-1)
#5 Awesome Feather  (3-1)

Race Notes-
Royal Delta should be best in here and if she runs her best she should cross the wire in front.  But there are a lot of nice horses in this race and the winner will have to be on their best.  I see a real possibility where Questing runs them off their feet and/or steals this on the front end.  Also, Awesome Feather hasn't faced this tough, but we really don't know how good she is, so she may just run away from these.  Grace Hall could very well win this race, but I think something would have to go wrong for a few of the top 3 and Royal Delta will probably get first run on Grace Hall.

Suggested Plays:
Special Daily Double - Ladies Classic & Breeders' Cup Classic
$5 - 6 (Royal Delta) / 5 (Game on Dude) = $5
$2 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 5 (Game on Dude), 11 (Mucho Macho Man) = $12
$1 - 6 (Royal Delta), 4 (Questing), 5 (Awesome Feather) / 4 (Fort Larned), 10 (Ron the Greek) = $6 - Hit $31.50

Exacta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/1,8,2 = $9 - Hit $15.20

Trifecta
$2 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/6,4,5 = $12
$1 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/1,8,2 = $18
$0.50 - 6,4,5/1,8,2/6,4,5 = $9
$0.50 - 6,4,5/6,4,5/7 = $3