Sunday, February 14, 2016

2016 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2

Here's how I played Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future wager:
Building on my Exacta theory that I laid out in a post last year (See 2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 Statistics), I used 10 horses in an exacta part-wheel over and under The Field that had run Par or better on my scale in a previous Kentucky Derby Prep Race.  This bet has cashed in 5 out of the 6 years where the Exacta in Future Wager for Pool 2 has been offered.  Horses that met these criteria that are included in Pool 2 are:

#1 - Airoforce (103)
#3 - Brody's Cause (104)
#5 - Cocked and Loaded (103)
#9 - Exaggerator (103)
#11 - Gift Box (100)
#12 - Greenpointcrusader (101, 103)
#13 - Gun Runner (100)
#14 - Mo Tom (101, 100)
#15 - Mohayme (103, 106)
#16 - Mor Spirit (101)

Here's how I constructed the bet:
$1 - 1,3,5,9,11,12,13,14,15,16 / 24 (The Field) = $10
$1 - 24 (The Field) / 1,3,5,9,11,12,13,14,15,16 = $10

By Using 'The Field' You Get More Bang for Your Buck!
It is very important to note that in recent years when the Exacta has been offered as a future wager, a finish in the Kentucky Derby of THE FIELD / THE FIELD defaults to the next closest horse from the Pool in the finish order of the race to complete the Exacta.  For instance, in 2013 the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby were Orb and Golden Soul.  Neither of these horses were offered in this Pool, so the actual finish was THE FIELD / THE FIELD.  However, because of this rule the Exacta looked to the next closest finish from a horse in the pool, which was the 3rd place finisher Revolutionary.  So, the future wager Exacta from this Pool paid to THE FIELD / REVOLUTIONARY.  This rule allows you to cover a lot of combinations on Derby Day for a fraction of the cost. 

We'll see how it plays out the first Saturday in May!  I'll post more on Pools 3 and 4 as well.  

Hope you played!