Updated 11:52am.
Card Notes-
I didn't see a whole lot in this card I liked. I'll post the one Pick 3 I liked and a Pick 4 ticket. I don't always have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top
5, but always tried to give a reason for the winner.
My Race Rating System-
I
always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In
some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my
selected
winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider
betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 3,7 / 6,1,5,2 / 5,3 = $8
$0.50 - 3,7 / 6,1,5 / 4 = $3
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 4,8 / 11,5 / 9,3 = $4
$0.50 - 4,8,2 / 11,5,6 / 9,3,7 = $13.50
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 4,3,1 / 4,8,2 / 11,5,6 / 9,3,7 = $40.50
Race 1 - 6f Claiming - Action+
A - #3 Dear Rachel (5/2) - slight class drop, would like to see Russell go for lead
B - #1 Domestic Rose (3-1)
C - #7 Elena's Masters (9/2)
D - #2 Seeking Millie (8-1)
E - #6 Credit Risk (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,1,7
Race Notes-
This is a race of a bunch of horses for sale at the bottom of the barrel claiming game. I wouldn't count on any of them.
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 1-1/16 mi Claiming - Action+
A - #6 Princess Beau K (9/2) - hoping can find early speed
B - #1 Ann Miller (7/2) - worried about style in this race
C - #8 My Name Is Ralphie (5-1)
D - #2 Sweet N Nutty
E - #7 Betrayed
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 6f Claiming - Action+
A - #3 Red Hot Jazz (10-1) - this old guy likely has the best gate speed, hoping he can hold on at a price
B - #7 Let's Get Lucky (3-1) - Ness 1st off claim, will be closing late, pace would help
C - #1 Blue Heir (7/2)
D - #2 Gagne (4-1)
E - #9 Sixty Acres(4-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,7
Race Notes-At 10-1 I'd have to give the #3 a chance to win.
Suggested Plays:
$2 Win #3 = $2
Race 4 - 6f Claiming - Action
A - #6 Hold That Broad (9/2) - has beat better, runs well at distance, best speed
B - #1 Rocky Gap (5-1)
C - #5 St John's Gospel (5/2)
D - #2 Drivebymedia (4-1)
E - #4 Love Talk (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,5,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 1-1/16 mi TURF Claiming - Play
A - #5 Mister Pippit (6/5) - working well, 2nd out 2013, shipping from Gp (45% in money), trouble last out, class
B - #3 Virginia Colony (5-1) - could be lone speed and may not fade out of exotics
C - #4 Aridus (5/2)
D - #1 Mr. Handsome (5-1)
E - #2 Shootdeworx (20-1) - cross out dirt beyer's and this horse could hit the board
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,3
B - 4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 6f Claiming - Action
A - #3 Sweet Maxine (6-1) - does best work on speed, hoping will go for lead
B - #7 Galavant (2-1)
C - #5 Honest Truth (5/2)
D - #2 Foursoutherbelles (6-1)
E - #4 Chief's Prize (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,7,5
Race Notes-Not crazy about any of these. Looks like a bunch of mid claimers for sale.
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1-1/16 mi TURF Alw - Action+ Start of Pick 4
A - #4 Papa's Forest (4-1) - ships in from Gp, class drop, not sure speed will carry, but should be close at wire
B - #3 Waquoit's Dance (8/5) - ships in from Gp, closer is 50% at distance, pace would help
C - #1 Jazz (8-1) - lots of turf class, closer, but others entice a little more, exotics
D - #10 Misty in Malibu (6-1) - 1st out 2013, does best work on front end, interesting for exotics use
E - # Jane's Heir (8-1) - interesting placement for Motion, may hit board and boost exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
4,3,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/16 mi Stakes - Play
A - #4 Touch the Birds (2-1) - speed, 9 for 9 in money at distance, class drop
B - #8 Smart Tori (9/2) - should be a few lengths off pace, winner at Pim and likes distance
C - #2 Celtic Katie (5/2) - fits here, 3 for 3 in exacta at distance
D - #5 Franstein (10-1)
E - #6 Tinderbox (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,8,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 1-1/16 mi TURF Alw - Play
A - #11 War Relic (4-1) - good closing horse first against winners, working good, like Russell on turf
B - #5 Miss Tapit (5-1) - Gp shipper can really close, should be close to pace
C - #6 Stormy n' Sly (10-1) - class dropper from Gp, best fits here
D - #1 Explainable (7/2) - Tam shippers are 44% in money, good closer
E - #7 Thegalthatwasaboy (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
11,5,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/16 mi Stakes - Action+
A - #9 Heat Press (8-1) - could very well get an easy lead
B - #3 Abstraction (7/5) - Fg shipper owns best beyer in field, first against winners, likely
C - #7 Dynamic Strike (4-1) - trouble last out, class
D - #5 Wry Me (12-1)
E - #4 Rienzi (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,3,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 11 - 5f TURF Claiming - Action+
A - #3 Thames Trader (3-1) - class drop, turf #'s are good from classier track
B - #2 Stormy Horizon (9/2) - 1st out 2013, speed, maybe good spot off layoff
C - #8 Senor Quickie (12-1) - has good turf #'s
D - #12 Available (5-1)
E - #6 Focus (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
2013 Kentucky Derby Watchlist - 4-23-2013
As with any of my Kentucky Derby watchlist it is very important to continue to hear what Mike Welsch and the other clockers say leading up to the Derby. I'll update the list again after next weekend as well as post a Kentucky Oaks list. Next to the Breeders' Cup, I love this time of year!
Top 5
Revolutionary - Has been my top prospect all along. I've loved the gameness in all his races and the announcement of Calvin fits his style. Mike Welsch really liked his 4-21-2012 workout of a 1/2 mile in 48-3/5 seconds, with his final 1/4 in 23-2/5 seconds. Welsch thought he was the better of the two Pletcher workers which included Verrazano. He'll need to workout a trip, but works suggest he's ready.
Orb - He is working great and is probably the most likely contender, though he may not be favored on the morning line, he'll be a close second. Welsch didn't see his work but did talk in Shug who was really happy with it.
Goldencents - I haven't heard anything his works, but I'm not willing to through him out on the distance question after his 1-1/8 mile victory in the Santa Anita Handicap. Also, he'll probably own the highest beyer number entering the Kentucky Derby and likely a beyer that would win this Derby.
Normandy Invasion - Loved the way he was closing in the Wood Memorial. Welsch said he came out of his 4-21 workout showing good energy in just 48 hrs and was the star of the show galloping. He was full of himself all the way around with high energy. Looks like a live contender for sure.
Oxbow - Cross a line through his Arkansas Derby and count on it, Gary Stevens learned from that outing. Mike Welsch said he galloped on 4-21 with a high energy level, pick up in momentum down the stretch and a handful to pull up. Then he worked 5f in 1:00 4/5 on 4-22 with a high energy level and was a hand full to pull up again finishing with his ears pricked. With the poor showing last out, this could be a great under the radar horse.
Others to Watch/Exotic Horses
Verrazano - Moved him out of my top 5 to include Oxbow. I still have a serious amount of respect for this horse, but I'm not sure I want him at the short price he'll be. But, I'll definitely include him in my multirace bets. He's undefeated and showed he could hold a horse off at his last out, but I'm just not sure that a few of these maybe better in the final few furlongs of the Derby. Mike Welsch was not as impressed with his workout than Revolutionary's saying that he had to be asked to keep up with the workmate in the gallop out.
Itsmyluckday - Is out of sight, out of mind right now, but if he runs back to his beyers he'll be right in the mix. Eddie Plesa is very happy and if he works well he could land himself squarely in the top 5. Very dangerous.
Overanalyze - Though the Arkansas Derby was slow, I liked the way in closed from a few lengths off the pace and drew off to win striding out. Just waiting to hear some workout reports.
Frac Daddy - Horse seems to be turning thing around with his second in the Arkansas Derby and Welsch said his 4-22 gallop was "very impressive". It was a gallop that was just short of a work and looks really good, training better than he trained at Gulfstream. He's peaking and do really well right now. Welsch went on to say that "Whether he is good enough, I'm not sure, but if you knew nothing of these horses and came to watch this horse would be on your short list for sure." Now, that says something about his improvement.
Will Take Charge - Is training up to the Derby following his win in the Rebel. Not sure what Lukas has up his sleeve on this one.
Longshots
Mylute - This guy could fly completely under the radar. Welsch said he settled well and finished his final 1/4 in 23-1/5 seconds. A good second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby and Revolutionary his working well has complimented that win with a good recent work. A definite horse to watch.
Java's War - This horse could very well plod his way into the exotics.
Black Onyx - Welsch said this guy has completely righted the ship and turned around since being moved to Kelly Breen. Probably not good enough to win, but he sure would help the exotic prices.
Top 5
Revolutionary - Has been my top prospect all along. I've loved the gameness in all his races and the announcement of Calvin fits his style. Mike Welsch really liked his 4-21-2012 workout of a 1/2 mile in 48-3/5 seconds, with his final 1/4 in 23-2/5 seconds. Welsch thought he was the better of the two Pletcher workers which included Verrazano. He'll need to workout a trip, but works suggest he's ready.
Orb - He is working great and is probably the most likely contender, though he may not be favored on the morning line, he'll be a close second. Welsch didn't see his work but did talk in Shug who was really happy with it.
Goldencents - I haven't heard anything his works, but I'm not willing to through him out on the distance question after his 1-1/8 mile victory in the Santa Anita Handicap. Also, he'll probably own the highest beyer number entering the Kentucky Derby and likely a beyer that would win this Derby.
Normandy Invasion - Loved the way he was closing in the Wood Memorial. Welsch said he came out of his 4-21 workout showing good energy in just 48 hrs and was the star of the show galloping. He was full of himself all the way around with high energy. Looks like a live contender for sure.
Oxbow - Cross a line through his Arkansas Derby and count on it, Gary Stevens learned from that outing. Mike Welsch said he galloped on 4-21 with a high energy level, pick up in momentum down the stretch and a handful to pull up. Then he worked 5f in 1:00 4/5 on 4-22 with a high energy level and was a hand full to pull up again finishing with his ears pricked. With the poor showing last out, this could be a great under the radar horse.
Others to Watch/Exotic Horses
Verrazano - Moved him out of my top 5 to include Oxbow. I still have a serious amount of respect for this horse, but I'm not sure I want him at the short price he'll be. But, I'll definitely include him in my multirace bets. He's undefeated and showed he could hold a horse off at his last out, but I'm just not sure that a few of these maybe better in the final few furlongs of the Derby. Mike Welsch was not as impressed with his workout than Revolutionary's saying that he had to be asked to keep up with the workmate in the gallop out.
Itsmyluckday - Is out of sight, out of mind right now, but if he runs back to his beyers he'll be right in the mix. Eddie Plesa is very happy and if he works well he could land himself squarely in the top 5. Very dangerous.
Overanalyze - Though the Arkansas Derby was slow, I liked the way in closed from a few lengths off the pace and drew off to win striding out. Just waiting to hear some workout reports.
Frac Daddy - Horse seems to be turning thing around with his second in the Arkansas Derby and Welsch said his 4-22 gallop was "very impressive". It was a gallop that was just short of a work and looks really good, training better than he trained at Gulfstream. He's peaking and do really well right now. Welsch went on to say that "Whether he is good enough, I'm not sure, but if you knew nothing of these horses and came to watch this horse would be on your short list for sure." Now, that says something about his improvement.
Will Take Charge - Is training up to the Derby following his win in the Rebel. Not sure what Lukas has up his sleeve on this one.
Longshots
Mylute - This guy could fly completely under the radar. Welsch said he settled well and finished his final 1/4 in 23-1/5 seconds. A good second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby and Revolutionary his working well has complimented that win with a good recent work. A definite horse to watch.
Java's War - This horse could very well plod his way into the exotics.
Black Onyx - Welsch said this guy has completely righted the ship and turned around since being moved to Kelly Breen. Probably not good enough to win, but he sure would help the exotic prices.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Pimlico 4-20-2013
Updated for scratches and plays 1:05pm.
Card Notes- I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5, but always tried to give a reason for the winner.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 2,3,4
$0.50 - 2,1 / 4 / 6,1 = $2
$0.50 - 2,1,4 / 4,3,6 / 6,1 = $9
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 1,6,4 / 5,2,1,7 / 2,7 / 14 = $12
Pick 3 - Race 9,10,11
$1 - 2 / 14 / 7 = $1
$0.50 - 2,7 / 14 / 7,8 = $2
Race 1 - 1-1/16 miles MSW - Action+
A - #2 Oasis At Midnight (9/5) - decent beyers, really like work pattern since Gp start
B - #4 Classy Broad (3-1) - like the flash of speed last out
C - #1 Miss Moonshine (5/2)
D - #3 Makayla's Angel (8-1)
E - #6 What You Know (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,4 / 2,4,1 = $4
Race 2 - 6f Claiming - Action
A - #2 Dancing Roman (7/2) - best speed
B - #1 Hot Escapade (5/2) - should be close with good trip, good in money record at distance
C - #4 Oopers Here (9/2)
D - #9 Pure Rey (6-1)
E - #3 Obviously Tuesday (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,1,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles OFF TURF Claiming - Action
A - #4 Dahteste - could wire field
B - #3 Monster Sleeping - could be there is speed fails
C - #6 Sweet Maxine
D - #11 Jaggermama
E - #8 Alpha Darlin
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 4
B - 3,6
Race Notes-
Race 4 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #6 How Convenient (9/5) - class drop, seems one of two best in here
B - #1 Wildhaassseee (7/5) - best beyers
C - #5 Roccamo (6-1)
D - #4 Flattering (12-1)
E - #7 He's a Gman (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1,5 / 6,1,5 = $4
$0.50 - 6,1 / 6,1 / 5,7,2 = $3
Race 6 - 6f Claiming - Action
A - #5 Harbor Fox (7/2) - may get uncontested lead
B - #3 Sasta Go Lucky (10-1) - likes this distance
C - #4 Banner Elk Lady (5/2)
D - #7 Miso Good (9/5)
E - #2 Royale Haror (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,4,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 5f OFF TURF Stormy Blues Stakes - Action+
A - #1 Sense of Reality - runs well on dirt, hopefully class will prevail, but may run out of room
B - #6 Shenandoah Lady - should be close to pace all the way
C - #4 Ek Haseena
D - #10 Jewel of a Cat
E - #7 Zip Cash Back
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 6f OC - Action
A - #5 Do You Smell Smoke (10-1) - Gp shipper, with a nice class drop, will need best
B - #2 Volastic (9/2) - drops from open claiming company
C - #1 Grand Mast (8/5) - big beyer will insure an under lay here, don't like post, 2 for 2 @ dist
D - #7 Banner Boy (6-1)
E - #3 Hurler (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 6f Primonetta Stakes - Play
A - #2 Irish Exchange (10-1) - closer can get it done if speed fails
B - #7 Bold Affair (Even) - can get it done, lots of class, loves Pim, maybe easy winner with scratch of #4
C - #8 Srumdiddlyuptious
D - #6 Exclusive Warrior
E - #5 Enchante
Multi-Race Horses-
2,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1- 2,7 / 2,7,8 / 2,7,8 = $4
$0.50 - 2,7 / 2,7,8 / 2,7,8,6,5 = $6
Race 10 - 1-1/16mi OFF TURF Henry Clark Stakes - Play
A - #14 Eighttofasttocatch - may very well wire these
B - #16 Lubango
C - #9 Concealed Indentity
D - #10 See Tobe
E - #15 Done Talking
Multi-Race Horses-
14
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 14 / 16,9 / 16,9,10,15 = $3
Race 11 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #7 No More Fives (5-1) - Lone Speed, could wire field
B - #8 Lookin for Me (3-1)
C - #2 Not That I Know Of (6-1)
D - #4 Mi Preciosa (6-1)
E - #6 Promenade Home (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #7 = $10
$1 - 8,2 / 7 = $2
Card Notes- I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5, but always tried to give a reason for the winner.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 2,3,4
$0.50 - 2,1 / 4 / 6,1 = $2
$0.50 - 2,1,4 / 4,3,6 / 6,1 = $9
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 1,6,4 / 5,2,1,7 / 2,7 / 14 = $12
Pick 3 - Race 9,10,11
$1 - 2 / 14 / 7 = $1
$0.50 - 2,7 / 14 / 7,8 = $2
Race 1 - 1-1/16 miles MSW - Action+
A - #2 Oasis At Midnight (9/5) - decent beyers, really like work pattern since Gp start
B - #4 Classy Broad (3-1) - like the flash of speed last out
C - #1 Miss Moonshine (5/2)
D - #3 Makayla's Angel (8-1)
E - #6 What You Know (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 2,4 / 2,4,1 = $4
Race 2 - 6f Claiming - Action
A - #2 Dancing Roman (7/2) - best speed
B - #1 Hot Escapade (5/2) - should be close with good trip, good in money record at distance
C - #4 Oopers Here (9/2)
D - #9 Pure Rey (6-1)
E - #3 Obviously Tuesday (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,1,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles OFF TURF Claiming - Action
A - #4 Dahteste - could wire field
B - #3 Monster Sleeping - could be there is speed fails
C - #6 Sweet Maxine
D - #11 Jaggermama
E - #8 Alpha Darlin
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 4
B - 3,6
Race Notes-
Race 4 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #6 How Convenient (9/5) - class drop, seems one of two best in here
B - #1 Wildhaassseee (7/5) - best beyers
C - #5 Roccamo (6-1)
D - #4 Flattering (12-1)
E - #7 He's a Gman (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1,5 / 6,1,5 = $4
$0.50 - 6,1 / 6,1 / 5,7,2 = $3
Race 6 - 6f Claiming - Action
A - #5 Harbor Fox (7/2) - may get uncontested lead
B - #3 Sasta Go Lucky (10-1) - likes this distance
C - #4 Banner Elk Lady (5/2)
D - #7 Miso Good (9/5)
E - #2 Royale Haror (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,4,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 5f OFF TURF Stormy Blues Stakes - Action+
A - #1 Sense of Reality - runs well on dirt, hopefully class will prevail, but may run out of room
B - #6 Shenandoah Lady - should be close to pace all the way
C - #4 Ek Haseena
D - #10 Jewel of a Cat
E - #7 Zip Cash Back
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 6f OC - Action
A - #5 Do You Smell Smoke (10-1) - Gp shipper, with a nice class drop, will need best
B - #2 Volastic (9/2) - drops from open claiming company
C - #1 Grand Mast (8/5) - big beyer will insure an under lay here, don't like post, 2 for 2 @ dist
D - #7 Banner Boy (6-1)
E - #3 Hurler (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 6f Primonetta Stakes - Play
A - #2 Irish Exchange (10-1) - closer can get it done if speed fails
B - #7 Bold Affair (Even) - can get it done, lots of class, loves Pim, maybe easy winner with scratch of #4
C - #8 Srumdiddlyuptious
D - #6 Exclusive Warrior
E - #5 Enchante
Multi-Race Horses-
2,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1- 2,7 / 2,7,8 / 2,7,8 = $4
$0.50 - 2,7 / 2,7,8 / 2,7,8,6,5 = $6
Race 10 - 1-1/16mi OFF TURF Henry Clark Stakes - Play
A - #14 Eighttofasttocatch - may very well wire these
B - #16 Lubango
C - #9 Concealed Indentity
D - #10 See Tobe
E - #15 Done Talking
Multi-Race Horses-
14
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 14 / 16,9 / 16,9,10,15 = $3
Race 11 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #7 No More Fives (5-1) - Lone Speed, could wire field
B - #8 Lookin for Me (3-1)
C - #2 Not That I Know Of (6-1)
D - #4 Mi Preciosa (6-1)
E - #6 Promenade Home (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #7 = $10
$1 - 8,2 / 7 = $2
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
2013 Kentucky Derby Watchlist
As with any of my Kentucky Derby watchlist it is very important to hear what Mike Welsch and the other clockers are saying leading up to the Derby.
Top 5
Revolutionary - The "cardiac attack" horse from the Withers and Louisiana Derby is as game as they come. Not sure he is good enough to best some of these, but he should be running hard to the wire. I would say he needs a decent post to avoid traffic, but with Borel, riding the rail is always an option. He maybe the best price on the board out of my top 5.
Orb - I had a hard time backing him in his preps, but those wins land him squarely in my top 5. He'll need a good post and ride to avoid traffic, but you know from his preps he will be looking to have dead aim on the front runner turning for home.
Goldencents - In the Santa Anita Derby he posted a beyer that would probably win this years Kentucky Derby. Many say he can't get the distance, but the same thing was said about Secretariat. Hmm, someone remind me how that turned out? Anyway, he's a solid contender and though many haven't heard of his jockey, Kevin Krigger, this is not his first race. I thought he rode Goldencents like he was on the best horse in the Santa Anita Derby. Definite contender for Doug O'Neil to go back to back!
Normandy Invasion - This horse might be peaking at the right time. He was closing hard in the late stages of the Wood Memerial and may have very well run past Verrazano if the race was longer. He's a game horse, which I've already mentioned I like, but with the effort in the Wood he maybe a buzz horse come Derby week.
Verrazano - Though the Wood Memorial was slow, he is undefeated and he proved he could hold off a closer in that effort too. He figures to be a short price and is by no means a cinch. I think the post draw will be more important for him than any of my other top 5.
Others to Watch/Exotic Horses
Java's War - This horse could very well plod his way into the exotics.
Overanalyze - Though the time of the Arkansas Derby was slow, he did close into that slow pace and drew away. Plus he looked good striding towards the wire.
Mylute - Was a stubborn second behind Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby.
Oxbow - Draw a line through the Arkansas Derby effort, he got bad position for his style and lost the race going into the first turn.
Will Take Charge - Is training up to the Derby following his win in the Rebel. Not sure what Lukas has up his sleeve on this one.
Top 5
Revolutionary - The "cardiac attack" horse from the Withers and Louisiana Derby is as game as they come. Not sure he is good enough to best some of these, but he should be running hard to the wire. I would say he needs a decent post to avoid traffic, but with Borel, riding the rail is always an option. He maybe the best price on the board out of my top 5.
Orb - I had a hard time backing him in his preps, but those wins land him squarely in my top 5. He'll need a good post and ride to avoid traffic, but you know from his preps he will be looking to have dead aim on the front runner turning for home.
Goldencents - In the Santa Anita Derby he posted a beyer that would probably win this years Kentucky Derby. Many say he can't get the distance, but the same thing was said about Secretariat. Hmm, someone remind me how that turned out? Anyway, he's a solid contender and though many haven't heard of his jockey, Kevin Krigger, this is not his first race. I thought he rode Goldencents like he was on the best horse in the Santa Anita Derby. Definite contender for Doug O'Neil to go back to back!
Normandy Invasion - This horse might be peaking at the right time. He was closing hard in the late stages of the Wood Memerial and may have very well run past Verrazano if the race was longer. He's a game horse, which I've already mentioned I like, but with the effort in the Wood he maybe a buzz horse come Derby week.
Verrazano - Though the Wood Memorial was slow, he is undefeated and he proved he could hold off a closer in that effort too. He figures to be a short price and is by no means a cinch. I think the post draw will be more important for him than any of my other top 5.
Others to Watch/Exotic Horses
Java's War - This horse could very well plod his way into the exotics.
Overanalyze - Though the time of the Arkansas Derby was slow, he did close into that slow pace and drew away. Plus he looked good striding towards the wire.
Mylute - Was a stubborn second behind Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby.
Oxbow - Draw a line through the Arkansas Derby effort, he got bad position for his style and lost the race going into the first turn.
Will Take Charge - Is training up to the Derby following his win in the Rebel. Not sure what Lukas has up his sleeve on this one.
Post Arkansas Derby & Blue Grass Thoughts...
Keeneland - Bluegrass Stakes
Java's War put in a good late run to just get up for the win that was reminiscent of Dullahan last year. Also, I was glad to see Palace Malice hold on for 2nd which gives him enough points to get into the Derby. But, to be honest I wasn't all that impress with much coming out of this race. The time seemed slow and to be honest it finished like a turf race with a cavalry charge the end, so no one really distinguished themselves. Of course, as with all the horses we'll have to wait and see what Mike Welsch says leading up to the Kentucky Derby. I will say this, Java's War will have traffic to deal with, but he maybe one of those horses that keep plodding along and ends up in the Trifecta or Superfecta.
Keeneland - Maker's 46 Mile
Wise Dan posted a 99 beyer while holding Data Link at bay during the stretch. While I've heard criticism that he posted his first sub 100 beyer in some time, it was by 1 point off a layoff. To me he looked good and as the year progress should prove to be just as good as last year. Part of this I am basing on the fact that Data Link is a strong closer and he couldn't even collar Wise Dan, it was almost as if Wise Dan was toying with him.
Oaklawn Park - Oaklawn Handicap
I didn't see Fort Larned running that flat, but every horse is due a clunker now and then. I think the best thing to do is draw a line through it and see how he runs next out. The horse I was most disappointed in was Alternation. I really this horse and would like to see him round back into decent form. Cyber Secret definitely proved he loves Oaklawn and solidified himself as a horse to be reckoned with in the future.
Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby
I was really disappointed in this race. I really thought this lined up to be a 2 horse race between Oxbow and War Academy. Oxbow, broke a little slower than the others and Gary Stevens let him ease into the race verses trying to get to the first flight of horses. This put Oxbow in the back of the pack and completely out of his game. Watching the race live I felt like he had lost going into the first turn and he never made any kind of run. War Academy was between horses on the back stretch, but looked like he had a shot if he could get clear running room. But, Mike Smith thought he sensed something wasn't right and pulled the horse up, which was the right thing to do. Mike is a hall of fame jockey who has sat on thousands upon thousands of horses and I'm sure he knows what if feels like when a horse isn't traveling good. And, doing the right thing for the horse by living to fight another day is always the right thing...even if it cost you a spot in the Kentucky Derby. As a handicapper I simply don't have the credentials to criticize a hall of fame jockey on this one. Though the race was run excruciatingly slow, Overanalyze had to close into this slow pace and was drawing away at the end. That suggest to me he was much better than the rest of this field (less maybe the trouble Oxbow) and he looked good winning at the end too. Yes, he only earned an 88 beyer which should weigh heavily when handicapping, but it is always important to investigate how that figure was earned.
I'll be putting my Kentucky Derby watch in a separate post.
Java's War put in a good late run to just get up for the win that was reminiscent of Dullahan last year. Also, I was glad to see Palace Malice hold on for 2nd which gives him enough points to get into the Derby. But, to be honest I wasn't all that impress with much coming out of this race. The time seemed slow and to be honest it finished like a turf race with a cavalry charge the end, so no one really distinguished themselves. Of course, as with all the horses we'll have to wait and see what Mike Welsch says leading up to the Kentucky Derby. I will say this, Java's War will have traffic to deal with, but he maybe one of those horses that keep plodding along and ends up in the Trifecta or Superfecta.
Keeneland - Maker's 46 Mile
Wise Dan posted a 99 beyer while holding Data Link at bay during the stretch. While I've heard criticism that he posted his first sub 100 beyer in some time, it was by 1 point off a layoff. To me he looked good and as the year progress should prove to be just as good as last year. Part of this I am basing on the fact that Data Link is a strong closer and he couldn't even collar Wise Dan, it was almost as if Wise Dan was toying with him.
Oaklawn Park - Oaklawn Handicap
I didn't see Fort Larned running that flat, but every horse is due a clunker now and then. I think the best thing to do is draw a line through it and see how he runs next out. The horse I was most disappointed in was Alternation. I really this horse and would like to see him round back into decent form. Cyber Secret definitely proved he loves Oaklawn and solidified himself as a horse to be reckoned with in the future.
Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby
I was really disappointed in this race. I really thought this lined up to be a 2 horse race between Oxbow and War Academy. Oxbow, broke a little slower than the others and Gary Stevens let him ease into the race verses trying to get to the first flight of horses. This put Oxbow in the back of the pack and completely out of his game. Watching the race live I felt like he had lost going into the first turn and he never made any kind of run. War Academy was between horses on the back stretch, but looked like he had a shot if he could get clear running room. But, Mike Smith thought he sensed something wasn't right and pulled the horse up, which was the right thing to do. Mike is a hall of fame jockey who has sat on thousands upon thousands of horses and I'm sure he knows what if feels like when a horse isn't traveling good. And, doing the right thing for the horse by living to fight another day is always the right thing...even if it cost you a spot in the Kentucky Derby. As a handicapper I simply don't have the credentials to criticize a hall of fame jockey on this one. Though the race was run excruciatingly slow, Overanalyze had to close into this slow pace and was drawing away at the end. That suggest to me he was much better than the rest of this field (less maybe the trouble Oxbow) and he looked good winning at the end too. Yes, he only earned an 88 beyer which should weigh heavily when handicapping, but it is always important to investigate how that figure was earned.
I'll be putting my Kentucky Derby watch in a separate post.
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Oaklawn Park 4-13-2013 - Arkansas Derby Day Races 7-10
Updated for Scratches & Plays 1:30pm EST.
Card Notes-
Looking at the Pick 4 races 7-10 and Pick 3 races 8-10. Also, I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 7-10
$0.50 - 5,7,6,1 / 9 / 5,3,2,4 / 10,2 = $16
Pick 3 - Races 8-10 - to be played as backup to Pick4
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3 / 10,2 = $2
$0.50 - 4,5,1 / 5,3 / 10,2 = $6
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3,2,4 / 10,2 = $4
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3,2 / 5,4,9 = $4.50
Race 7 - 1 mile Northern Spur Stakes - Action
A - #5 Get Happy Mister (6-1) - could be lone speed
B - #7 Holiday Mischief (9/2)
C - #6 Looking Cool (5/2)
D - #1 Malibu High (4-1)
E - #3 Bemata (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,7,6
B - 1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles Oaklawn Handicap G2 - Play
A - #9 Fort Larned (7/5) - if he's ok from last out, should handle these
B - #4 Atigun (9/2) - this guy just hangs around at the end, exotics
C - #5 Alternation (9/2) - was not on his game last out, this start should tell a lot, hard knocker, love this guy
D - #1 Cyber Secret (5-1) - good win last out, but I think he's running for second, will need to work trip
E - #6 Golden Ron (20-1)
Value/Deep Exotics Use-
#2 Unstoppable U (15-1) - feel the need to cover him in the 3rd spot
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 9
B - 4,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1 / 4,5,1 = $3
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1,6 / 4,5,1,6 = $6
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1,6 / 2 = $2 - saver on #2 running 3rd
Race 9 - 6f Count Fleet Sprint Handicap G3 - Action
A - #5 Flashpoint (7/2) - 50% win at distance, would love to see him sit just behind speed
B - #3 Justin Phillip (7/5) - tends to be a money burner in win category, win chance but prefer to use in exotics
C - #2 Apprehender (6-1) - speed, likes distance
D - #4 Laurie's Rocket (7/2)
E - #1 Gentlemen's Bet (8-1) - another speed horse, likes Oak and distance, maybe a cut below here
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles Arkansas Derby G1 - Play
A - #10 Oxbow (5/2) - has run some good races lately, no loss in jock change
B - #2 War Academy (2-1) - a Baffert horse moving fwd, could drill these
C - #5 Den's Legacy (6-1) - loves to keep plodding along and hang around at end, exotics
D - #4 Falling Sky (10-1) - really needs to right the ship here, like workout, may be looking the lead, capable
E - #9 Overanalyze (4-1) - another one who needs a turn around, but may still be better than rest
Multi-Race Horses-
10,2
Race Notes-
I went smaller on multirace horses and hope form holds true.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,2 / 10,2 = $4
$1 - 10,2 / 5,4,9 = $6
- OR -
$0.50 - 10,2 / 10,2 / 5,4,9 = $3
$0.50 - 10,2 / 10,2,5,4,9 / 10,2,5,4,9 = $12
Card Notes-
Looking at the Pick 4 races 7-10 and Pick 3 races 8-10. Also, I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 7-10
$0.50 - 5,7,6,1 / 9 / 5,3,2,4 / 10,2 = $16
Pick 3 - Races 8-10 - to be played as backup to Pick4
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3 / 10,2 = $2
$0.50 - 4,5,1 / 5,3 / 10,2 = $6
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3,2,4 / 10,2 = $4
$0.50 - 9 / 5,3,2 / 5,4,9 = $4.50
Race 7 - 1 mile Northern Spur Stakes - Action
A - #5 Get Happy Mister (6-1) - could be lone speed
B - #7 Holiday Mischief (9/2)
C - #6 Looking Cool (5/2)
D - #1 Malibu High (4-1)
E - #3 Bemata (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,7,6
B - 1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles Oaklawn Handicap G2 - Play
A - #9 Fort Larned (7/5) - if he's ok from last out, should handle these
B - #4 Atigun (9/2) - this guy just hangs around at the end, exotics
C - #5 Alternation (9/2) - was not on his game last out, this start should tell a lot, hard knocker, love this guy
D - #1 Cyber Secret (5-1) - good win last out, but I think he's running for second, will need to work trip
E - #6 Golden Ron (20-1)
Value/Deep Exotics Use-
#2 Unstoppable U (15-1) - feel the need to cover him in the 3rd spot
Multi-Race Horses-
A - 9
B - 4,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1 / 4,5,1 = $3
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1,6 / 4,5,1,6 = $6
$0.50 - 9 / 4,5,1,6 / 2 = $2 - saver on #2 running 3rd
Race 9 - 6f Count Fleet Sprint Handicap G3 - Action
A - #5 Flashpoint (7/2) - 50% win at distance, would love to see him sit just behind speed
B - #3 Justin Phillip (7/5) - tends to be a money burner in win category, win chance but prefer to use in exotics
C - #2 Apprehender (6-1) - speed, likes distance
D - #4 Laurie's Rocket (7/2)
E - #1 Gentlemen's Bet (8-1) - another speed horse, likes Oak and distance, maybe a cut below here
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles Arkansas Derby G1 - Play
A - #10 Oxbow (5/2) - has run some good races lately, no loss in jock change
B - #2 War Academy (2-1) - a Baffert horse moving fwd, could drill these
C - #5 Den's Legacy (6-1) - loves to keep plodding along and hang around at end, exotics
D - #4 Falling Sky (10-1) - really needs to right the ship here, like workout, may be looking the lead, capable
E - #9 Overanalyze (4-1) - another one who needs a turn around, but may still be better than rest
Multi-Race Horses-
10,2
Race Notes-
I went smaller on multirace horses and hope form holds true.
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 10,2 / 10,2 = $4
$1 - 10,2 / 5,4,9 = $6
- OR -
$0.50 - 10,2 / 10,2 / 5,4,9 = $3
$0.50 - 10,2 / 10,2,5,4,9 / 10,2,5,4,9 = $12
Pimlico 4-13-2013 - Races 4-10
Updated for Scratches 12:47pm.
Card Notes- There maybe a couple of decent Pick 3 plays where we can catch some value. Also, I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 = 13,15,4 / 2,6,5 / 6,5,2 / 1 = $13.50
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$0.50 - 1,3 / 6,7 / 2,4 = $4
$0.50 - 1,3,5 / 6,7,2,4 / 2,4 = $12
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 6,7 / 2,4 / 13,15 = $4
$0.50 - 6,7,2,4 / 2,4 / 13,15,4 = $12
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 2,6 / 6,5 / 1 = $2
$0.50 - 2,6,5 / 6,5,2 / 1 = $4.50
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles MSW - Action
A - #1 Deb's Trip (5/2) - is a Gp shipper, may go for lead, trnr 17% 1st claim
B - #3 Arann (3-1) - nice recent Prx work
C - #5 Urania (3-1) - maybe over bet, 42% first with trnr
D - #2 Sheppard's Pie (7/2)
E - #4 Tapit Ten (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1,3,5/1,3,5 = $6
Race 5 - 5f Moved to Dirt Alw - Action
A - #6 Feisty Angelina - hoping can wire small field
B - #7Seeyouinthetown
C - #2 Jazz - dirt races have not been as good
D - #4 Great Motion
E - #10 Midsummer's Eve
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,2,4
Race Notes-
May still pick up some value in the Pick 3's.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 6f Claimng - Play
A - #2 Western Tease - race sets up for
B - #4 Starforaday (2-1) - class drop, will need some pace, but could take advantage of a duel, running late
C - #6 Spellit (12-1)
D - #5 Tennis Racket (8-1)
E - #7 Silver Slugger (15-1) - by default
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 2,4 / 2,4 / 6,5,7 = $3
$0.50 - 2,4 / 6,5,7 / 2,4 = $3
$0.50 - 2,4 / 2,4,6 / 2,4,6,5,7 = $6
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles Moved to Dirt MSW - Action+
A - #13 Moon Legacy - maybe lone speed
B - #15 With Sprinkles
C - #4 Queen Jezebel
D - #9 Chanterelle
E - #10 South Andros
Multi-Race Horses-
13,15,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 6f Claiming - Action+
A - #2 Glib (Even) - class drop, speed, but can sit as well, some chinks in armor
B - #6 Big Brother Joe (5-1) - early speed, class drop, trnr 28% off layoff
C - #5 Peter's Creek (9/2) - will need some pace, a speed duel would be advantageous, class drop
D - #1 Disco Indy (6-1)
E - #4 Star Zapper (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,6,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 5-1/2f OC - Play
A - #6 Manito (9/5) - speed, like post for style
B - #5 Pass You Bye Bye (2-1) - works suggest ready, good gate speed
C - #2 Peb Hughes (9/2) - could pick up pieces if 6 and 5 duel, has run and trks that ship in good here
D - #1 Mass Destruction (5-1)
E - #4 Final Forest (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,5,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 6,5,2 / 6,5,2 / 6,5,2 = $3
$0.50 - 6,5,2 / 6,5,2,1 / 6,5,2,1 = $9
Race 10 - 6f OC - Prime
A - #1 I'm Mom's Favorite (4/5) - seems easily the best, class drop from good effort, plenty of speed
B - #3 Dress Up (12-1) - plenty of value if moves fwd
C - #4 She's a Gold Mine (12-1)
D - #2 Ek Haseena (10-1)
E - #7 Hailey's Star
Multi-Race Horses-
1
Race Notes-Not much value on winner, but a great race for a single in your multirace bets.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1 / 3,4,2 / 3,4,2 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 5,3,4,2 / 7 = $2 - may need in case #7 sneaks in 3rd
Card Notes- There maybe a couple of decent Pick 3 plays where we can catch some value. Also, I didn't have time to write why I like or disliked each of my top 5.
My Race Rating System- I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 = 13,15,4 / 2,6,5 / 6,5,2 / 1 = $13.50
Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
$0.50 - 1,3 / 6,7 / 2,4 = $4
$0.50 - 1,3,5 / 6,7,2,4 / 2,4 = $12
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 6,7 / 2,4 / 13,15 = $4
$0.50 - 6,7,2,4 / 2,4 / 13,15,4 = $12
Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 2,6 / 6,5 / 1 = $2
$0.50 - 2,6,5 / 6,5,2 / 1 = $4.50
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles MSW - Action
A - #1 Deb's Trip (5/2) - is a Gp shipper, may go for lead, trnr 17% 1st claim
B - #3 Arann (3-1) - nice recent Prx work
C - #5 Urania (3-1) - maybe over bet, 42% first with trnr
D - #2 Sheppard's Pie (7/2)
E - #4 Tapit Ten (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1,3,5/1,3,5 = $6
Race 5 - 5f Moved to Dirt Alw - Action
A - #6 Feisty Angelina - hoping can wire small field
B - #7Seeyouinthetown
C - #2 Jazz - dirt races have not been as good
D - #4 Great Motion
E - #10 Midsummer's Eve
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,2,4
Race Notes-
May still pick up some value in the Pick 3's.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 6f Claimng - Play
A - #2 Western Tease - race sets up for
B - #4 Starforaday (2-1) - class drop, will need some pace, but could take advantage of a duel, running late
C - #6 Spellit (12-1)
D - #5 Tennis Racket (8-1)
E - #7 Silver Slugger (15-1) - by default
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 2,4 / 2,4 / 6,5,7 = $3
$0.50 - 2,4 / 6,5,7 / 2,4 = $3
$0.50 - 2,4 / 2,4,6 / 2,4,6,5,7 = $6
Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles Moved to Dirt MSW - Action+
A - #13 Moon Legacy - maybe lone speed
B - #15 With Sprinkles
C - #4 Queen Jezebel
D - #9 Chanterelle
E - #10 South Andros
Multi-Race Horses-
13,15,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 6f Claiming - Action+
A - #2 Glib (Even) - class drop, speed, but can sit as well, some chinks in armor
B - #6 Big Brother Joe (5-1) - early speed, class drop, trnr 28% off layoff
C - #5 Peter's Creek (9/2) - will need some pace, a speed duel would be advantageous, class drop
D - #1 Disco Indy (6-1)
E - #4 Star Zapper (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,6,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - 5-1/2f OC - Play
A - #6 Manito (9/5) - speed, like post for style
B - #5 Pass You Bye Bye (2-1) - works suggest ready, good gate speed
C - #2 Peb Hughes (9/2) - could pick up pieces if 6 and 5 duel, has run and trks that ship in good here
D - #1 Mass Destruction (5-1)
E - #4 Final Forest (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,5,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 6,5,2 / 6,5,2 / 6,5,2 = $3
$0.50 - 6,5,2 / 6,5,2,1 / 6,5,2,1 = $9
Race 10 - 6f OC - Prime
A - #1 I'm Mom's Favorite (4/5) - seems easily the best, class drop from good effort, plenty of speed
B - #3 Dress Up (12-1) - plenty of value if moves fwd
C - #4 She's a Gold Mine (12-1)
D - #2 Ek Haseena (10-1)
E - #7 Hailey's Star
Multi-Race Horses-
1
Race Notes-Not much value on winner, but a great race for a single in your multirace bets.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1 / 3,4,2 / 3,4,2 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 5,3,4,2 / 7 = $2 - may need in case #7 sneaks in 3rd
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Post Wood Memorial & SA Derby Thoughts...
I was gone over the weekend, so I didn't get a chance to handicap the races. Here's a look back at my thoughts once I watched the races. Also, I'll be handicapping this weekend for the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes.
Wood Memorial
I thought Verrazano ran ok. He did what was asked of him and he sat a good trip just a few lengths behind a slow pace. Also, it was good to see him repel the bid by Vijack. In this race I would ignore the beyer for a couple of reasons: 1) A 5 to 10 point improvement (which 3 yr olds are easily capable of) would definitely put him in the mix to win the Kentucky Derby 2) When looking at Beyer figures it is always important to note how the figure was earned. A slow pace can definitely impacted the figure and Verrazano did just enough to win the race by holding Vijack at bay in the stretch, which was all that was asked of him. And they did come home in 36-2/5 seconds, which is fair.
Vijack ran a decent race, but was compromised by the pace. Still, he had his chance to run past Verrazano and he couldn't get there, fading to 3rd nearing the wire. With this in mind I think Vijack may have proven he is a cut below the best. Normandy Invasion is the horse I am most intrigued with coming out of this race. I didn't like any of the horses coming out of the Risen Star, except Normandy Invasion. To be honest I was cheering harder for him to get 2nd than for Verrazano to win, because 2nd or 3rd was likely the difference in Normandy Invasion even making the Kentucky Derby field. With his style, he'll have some traffic to deal with, but he definitely runs well late and should mix it up at the end of the Derby. Mr. Palmer is another horse to watch going forward. He maybe just a little later developing, but watch for him to show up in the Preakness or Belmont.
Santa Anita Derby
With Flashback being injured, I didn't think there was much to comment on coming out of this race. Mainly, because Goldencents and Flashback crushed the Santa Anita Derby field. Though it may not have been the best SA Derby field, the two definitely distinguished themselves among the top contenders from the West Coast. We'll have to wait for Flashback's return from the injury, but Goldencents will be moving on to Kentucky. Goldencents sat a good trip and easily went by Super Ninety-Nine who wanted no part of the 1-1/8 mile race. Goldencents did find more when challenged by Flashback, but we'll never know if any of that was due to the injury incurred by Flashback. With that said, Goldencents is a horse to include in your Kentucky Derby watchlist. Could he win the race? Certainly. But he also seems like a good horse to use in the exotics based on the fact that he should be slowing down toward the end, but may still hold on for 2nd or 3rd. As with any Kentucky Derby prospect, we'll have to see how he works in the weeks leading up.
Kentucky Derby Watchlist
At this point these are the horses I am watching, but we'll get a lot more serious after the Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby this weekend. These are not necessarily in order.
1) Revolutionary
2) Normandy Invasion
3) Verrazano
4) Orb
5) Oxbow
6) Will Take Charge
7) Goldencents
Wood Memorial
I thought Verrazano ran ok. He did what was asked of him and he sat a good trip just a few lengths behind a slow pace. Also, it was good to see him repel the bid by Vijack. In this race I would ignore the beyer for a couple of reasons: 1) A 5 to 10 point improvement (which 3 yr olds are easily capable of) would definitely put him in the mix to win the Kentucky Derby 2) When looking at Beyer figures it is always important to note how the figure was earned. A slow pace can definitely impacted the figure and Verrazano did just enough to win the race by holding Vijack at bay in the stretch, which was all that was asked of him. And they did come home in 36-2/5 seconds, which is fair.
Vijack ran a decent race, but was compromised by the pace. Still, he had his chance to run past Verrazano and he couldn't get there, fading to 3rd nearing the wire. With this in mind I think Vijack may have proven he is a cut below the best. Normandy Invasion is the horse I am most intrigued with coming out of this race. I didn't like any of the horses coming out of the Risen Star, except Normandy Invasion. To be honest I was cheering harder for him to get 2nd than for Verrazano to win, because 2nd or 3rd was likely the difference in Normandy Invasion even making the Kentucky Derby field. With his style, he'll have some traffic to deal with, but he definitely runs well late and should mix it up at the end of the Derby. Mr. Palmer is another horse to watch going forward. He maybe just a little later developing, but watch for him to show up in the Preakness or Belmont.
Santa Anita Derby
With Flashback being injured, I didn't think there was much to comment on coming out of this race. Mainly, because Goldencents and Flashback crushed the Santa Anita Derby field. Though it may not have been the best SA Derby field, the two definitely distinguished themselves among the top contenders from the West Coast. We'll have to wait for Flashback's return from the injury, but Goldencents will be moving on to Kentucky. Goldencents sat a good trip and easily went by Super Ninety-Nine who wanted no part of the 1-1/8 mile race. Goldencents did find more when challenged by Flashback, but we'll never know if any of that was due to the injury incurred by Flashback. With that said, Goldencents is a horse to include in your Kentucky Derby watchlist. Could he win the race? Certainly. But he also seems like a good horse to use in the exotics based on the fact that he should be slowing down toward the end, but may still hold on for 2nd or 3rd. As with any Kentucky Derby prospect, we'll have to see how he works in the weeks leading up.
Kentucky Derby Watchlist
At this point these are the horses I am watching, but we'll get a lot more serious after the Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby this weekend. These are not necessarily in order.
1) Revolutionary
2) Normandy Invasion
3) Verrazano
4) Orb
5) Oxbow
6) Will Take Charge
7) Goldencents
Monday, April 1, 2013
Post Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby and Dubai Thoughts...
Louisiana Derby-
Well, the "Cardiac Colt" strikes again. Revolutionary was my pick going in based on his game win in the Withers and to be honest I lost him until late on the 2nd turn when he was making his bid. Once he struck the front I thought, "Well this is over". Until I saw Mylute coming on the outside and for a second he looked like he was going to easily hold Mylute at bay. Then Mylute collared him and appeared to put a head in front, but as they neared the wire it was clear Revolutionary was not done and fought back to won by a neck. Revolutionary sat well off the pace and came 5 wide on the 2nd turn to bid for the lead. I would like to see him a little closer up in the Kentucky Derby to avoid traffic, but his gameness makes him a real contender.
Florida Derby-
Orb, the horse I have yet to be able to get behind pulled another rabbit out of his hat. So, now it's time to give credit to the horse...he's a for real Kentucky Derby Contender. If he can close like that in the Derby and get the distance he could very well plod into the exotics if not the winners circle. There are still others I like more, but the Florida Derby is a big win solidifying his bid for the Kentucky Derby. Itsmysluckyday ran his race and flattened in the stretch as Orb went by. He really had no excuse, but he didn't have to win this race and the conditioning he gain keeps him still on the radar for the Kentucky Derby. Blocked on the inside early, Shanghai Bobby never seemed comfortable and gave way turning for home. I'm not sure whether he didn't like his early position or has distance issues, but the one thing that is clear is he still has a lot of questions to answer. Another point about the Florida Derby was the time seemed slow. Dreaming of Julia ran a little over a second and a half faster in the Gulfstream Oaks. So, we'll wait and see what the numbers say, but it would be a concern going forward if that were true.
Dubai-
You have to admit, when Animal Kingdom cleared the field and kicked away you had to throw up your hands and say "chalk one up for the US!" Another horse started to close in the stretch but Animal Kingdom was gearing down by that point to win easily. He's a beautiful horse and you have to be excited for him and his connections after recovering from injury and finishing 2nd to Wise Dan in the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile. But, the Dubai World Cup win is bitter sweet knowing this may be the last or second to last time we get to see him run before retirement. At age 5, Animal Kingdom is among a faction of older horses proving that the violin gets sweeter with age. I would love to see Animal Kingdom campaigned through the Breeders' Cup this year. And what is even more upsetting to me is that he's not standing in the US. Now, I'm not a horse breeding expert by any means, but I have bred a lot of Labrador Retrievers. And you can have all the champion you want in the bloodline, but if you can't prove it in the field, then to me the bloodline means nothing. I want a dog that can prove themselves in the field. I feel this same way with Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another. With Animal Kingdom you have a Derby winner, Preakness and Breeders' Cup Turf Mile placed and winner of the Dubai World Cup (amongst other wins). This horse can run all day and on a variety of surfaces. What more could you want in a stud horse? But, they don't ask me, so hopefully some of his offspring will make it back into this hemisphere.
Performance of the Weekend-
Dreaming of Julia was unbelievable when she annihilated the Gulfstream Oaks field winning by 20 lengths. Pletcher said if it wasn't for the points system he would run her in the Derby. I guess she is our first filly casualty of the points system. There is always a good buzz when a filly is taking on the boys in a big race and I think by limiting this with the points system Churchill Downs is missing a great marketing opportunity when fillies are able to run in the Derby. I'm not sure what the answer is, but I think it is worth considering how to make this work in future years. Because with the performance Dreaming of Julia put in on Saturday she would be a true contender in the Kentucky Derby...so until they change the points system, watch out Kentucky Oaks field!
Well, the "Cardiac Colt" strikes again. Revolutionary was my pick going in based on his game win in the Withers and to be honest I lost him until late on the 2nd turn when he was making his bid. Once he struck the front I thought, "Well this is over". Until I saw Mylute coming on the outside and for a second he looked like he was going to easily hold Mylute at bay. Then Mylute collared him and appeared to put a head in front, but as they neared the wire it was clear Revolutionary was not done and fought back to won by a neck. Revolutionary sat well off the pace and came 5 wide on the 2nd turn to bid for the lead. I would like to see him a little closer up in the Kentucky Derby to avoid traffic, but his gameness makes him a real contender.
Florida Derby-
Orb, the horse I have yet to be able to get behind pulled another rabbit out of his hat. So, now it's time to give credit to the horse...he's a for real Kentucky Derby Contender. If he can close like that in the Derby and get the distance he could very well plod into the exotics if not the winners circle. There are still others I like more, but the Florida Derby is a big win solidifying his bid for the Kentucky Derby. Itsmysluckyday ran his race and flattened in the stretch as Orb went by. He really had no excuse, but he didn't have to win this race and the conditioning he gain keeps him still on the radar for the Kentucky Derby. Blocked on the inside early, Shanghai Bobby never seemed comfortable and gave way turning for home. I'm not sure whether he didn't like his early position or has distance issues, but the one thing that is clear is he still has a lot of questions to answer. Another point about the Florida Derby was the time seemed slow. Dreaming of Julia ran a little over a second and a half faster in the Gulfstream Oaks. So, we'll wait and see what the numbers say, but it would be a concern going forward if that were true.
Dubai-
You have to admit, when Animal Kingdom cleared the field and kicked away you had to throw up your hands and say "chalk one up for the US!" Another horse started to close in the stretch but Animal Kingdom was gearing down by that point to win easily. He's a beautiful horse and you have to be excited for him and his connections after recovering from injury and finishing 2nd to Wise Dan in the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile. But, the Dubai World Cup win is bitter sweet knowing this may be the last or second to last time we get to see him run before retirement. At age 5, Animal Kingdom is among a faction of older horses proving that the violin gets sweeter with age. I would love to see Animal Kingdom campaigned through the Breeders' Cup this year. And what is even more upsetting to me is that he's not standing in the US. Now, I'm not a horse breeding expert by any means, but I have bred a lot of Labrador Retrievers. And you can have all the champion you want in the bloodline, but if you can't prove it in the field, then to me the bloodline means nothing. I want a dog that can prove themselves in the field. I feel this same way with Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another. With Animal Kingdom you have a Derby winner, Preakness and Breeders' Cup Turf Mile placed and winner of the Dubai World Cup (amongst other wins). This horse can run all day and on a variety of surfaces. What more could you want in a stud horse? But, they don't ask me, so hopefully some of his offspring will make it back into this hemisphere.
Performance of the Weekend-
Dreaming of Julia was unbelievable when she annihilated the Gulfstream Oaks field winning by 20 lengths. Pletcher said if it wasn't for the points system he would run her in the Derby. I guess she is our first filly casualty of the points system. There is always a good buzz when a filly is taking on the boys in a big race and I think by limiting this with the points system Churchill Downs is missing a great marketing opportunity when fillies are able to run in the Derby. I'm not sure what the answer is, but I think it is worth considering how to make this work in future years. Because with the performance Dreaming of Julia put in on Saturday she would be a true contender in the Kentucky Derby...so until they change the points system, watch out Kentucky Oaks field!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)