Monday, April 1, 2013

Post Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby and Dubai Thoughts...

Louisiana Derby-
Well, the "Cardiac Colt" strikes again.  Revolutionary was my pick going in based on his game win in the Withers and to be honest I lost him until late on the 2nd turn when he was making his bid.  Once he struck the front I thought, "Well this is over".  Until I saw Mylute coming on the outside and for a second he looked like he was going to easily hold Mylute at bay.  Then Mylute collared him and appeared to put a head in front, but as they neared the wire it was clear Revolutionary was not done and fought back to won by a neck.  Revolutionary sat well off the pace and came 5 wide on the 2nd turn to bid for the lead.  I would like to see him a little closer up in the Kentucky Derby to avoid traffic, but his gameness makes him a real contender.


Florida Derby-
Orb, the horse I have yet to be able to get behind pulled another rabbit out of his hat.  So, now it's time to give credit to the horse...he's a for real Kentucky Derby Contender.  If he can close like that in the Derby and get the distance he could very well plod into the exotics if not the winners circle.  There are still others I like more, but the Florida Derby is a big win solidifying his bid for the Kentucky Derby.  Itsmysluckyday ran his race and flattened in the stretch as Orb went by.  He really had no excuse, but he didn't have to win this race and the conditioning he gain keeps him still on the radar for the Kentucky Derby.  Blocked on the inside early, Shanghai Bobby never seemed comfortable and gave way turning for home.  I'm not sure whether he didn't like his early position or has distance issues, but the one thing that is clear is he still has a lot of questions to answer.  Another point about the Florida Derby was the time seemed slow.  Dreaming of Julia ran a little over a second and a half faster in the Gulfstream Oaks.  So, we'll wait and see what the numbers say, but it would be a concern going forward if that were true.


Dubai-
You have to admit, when Animal Kingdom cleared the field and kicked away you had to throw up your hands and say "chalk one up for the US!"  Another horse started to close in the stretch but Animal Kingdom was gearing down by that point to win easily.  He's a beautiful horse and you have to be excited for him and his connections after recovering from injury and finishing 2nd to Wise Dan in the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile.  But, the Dubai World Cup win is bitter sweet knowing this may be the last or second to last time we get to see him run before retirement.  At age 5, Animal Kingdom is among a faction of older horses proving that the violin gets sweeter with age.  I would love to see Animal Kingdom campaigned through the Breeders' Cup this year.  And what is even more upsetting to me is that he's not standing in the US.  Now, I'm not a horse breeding expert by any means, but I have bred a lot of Labrador Retrievers.  And you can have all the champion you want in the bloodline, but if you can't prove it in the field, then to me the bloodline means nothing.  I want a dog that can prove themselves in the field.  I feel this same way with Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another.  With Animal Kingdom you have a Derby winner, Preakness and Breeders' Cup Turf Mile placed and winner of the Dubai World Cup (amongst other wins).  This horse can run all day and on a variety of surfaces.  What more could you want in a stud horse?  But, they don't ask me, so hopefully some of his offspring will make it back into this hemisphere.


Performance of the Weekend-
Dreaming of Julia was unbelievable when she annihilated the Gulfstream Oaks field winning by 20 lengths.  Pletcher said if it wasn't for the points system he would run her in the Derby.  I guess she is our first filly casualty of the points system.  There is always a good buzz when a filly is taking on the boys in a big race and I think by limiting this with the points system Churchill Downs is missing a great marketing opportunity when fillies are able to run in the Derby.  I'm not sure what the answer is, but I think it is worth considering how to make this work in future years.  Because with the performance Dreaming of Julia put in on Saturday she would be a true contender in the Kentucky Derby...so until they change the points system, watch out Kentucky Oaks field!


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