I'll be away for the next month while I work on a stats package for the Triple Crown and its Prep races. This package will be similar to the one I put out for the Breeders' Cup, but will contain more detailed stats. My hope is to have this ready around the end of January before the next Kentucky Derby Future Wager. For more information go to: www.bigdaystats.com
Please check back in January for more details!
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Saturday, November 2, 2013
2013 Breeders' Cup Saturday Selections
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
The guide includes 5 races on the Saturday Breeders' Cup card.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Saturday Selections
Not Updated for Scratches.
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Turf G1 - Play
A - #1 Dank (5/2) - 5/2 would be a steal, seems very much the best on paper and from workout reports
B - #6 Marketing Mix (7/2) - good beyers, always runs well
C - #4 Alterite (10-1) - grade 1 winner, beyers fit, price
D - #3 Tiz Flirtatious (7/2) - another one whose beyers fit and always runs wel
E - #2 Romantica (6-1) - this Euro shipper has won a group 1 and is 3 of 4 in the win column at this distance
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 Laughing (8-1) - may scratch
#10 Kitten's Dumplings (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6
Race Notes-
Dank should run these off their feet and I'll single her in my play.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 1/6,4,3,2,7/6,4,3,2,7 = $8
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1 - Play
A - #8 Dance to Bristol (5-1) - has been great this year while stringing several wins together
B - #5 Teddy's Promise (6-1) - likes to run up front and beyers fit
C - #11 Groupie Doll (5/2) - may not be as sharp as last year
D - #4 Dance Card (8-1) - should be up close to the lead
E - #7 Summer Applause (12-1) - cutting back, but that may be an advantage at 7f
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Judy the Beauty (6-1)
#2 Book Review (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,5,11
Race Notes-
It's obvious by the ML odds that this race is up for grabs. If Groupie Doll runs her A race then she wins, otherwise I think it sets up well for Dance to Bristol or Teddy's Promise. The track has been speed favoring, so that may come into play here.
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 8,5,11/8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7/8,5,11,4,7,9,2 = $7.20
$0.10 - 8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7/8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7,9,2 = $7.20
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1 - Action
A - #14 Unbridled's Note (8-1) - 3rd by 1/2 length last year, working well and may be ready to fire big
B - #5 Caracortado (8-1) - I've always liked this horse, and he ran good off the layoff, improvement puts him in the mix
C - #13 Dimension (12-1) - drawn well and is cutting back in distance
D - #12 Mizdirection (4-1) - won this last year, but is not working as well
E - #4 Reneesgotzip (5-1) - has not run on the turf since this race last year, but she ran good in this last year
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
Multi-Race Horses-
14,5,13
Race Notes-
Lots of options in here.
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1 - Action
A - #6 Tap It Rich (6-1) - working well, but is green with only one race, but Smith gives confidence
B - #10 We Miss Artie (8-1) - working well and is a price
C - #3 Mexikoma (12-1) - will need to prove he can run at this level, but beyers fit
D - #13 Havana (5/2) - Champagne winner is drawn wide
E - #12 Diamond Bachelor (12-1) - another price, but the track is playing to his liking
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#14 Strong Mandate (6-1) - will be really wide leaving the gate
Multi-Race Horses-
6,10,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1 - Play
A - #12 Real Solution (12-1) - working well and live at a big price, post shouldn't be a problem with distance
B - #7 The Fugue (3-1) - this mare is trying the boys this year, good runner last year in the F&M Turf, good shot
C - #4 Little Mike (6-1) - as much as I hate to say it, he could steal it again on the lead
D - #8 Point of Entry (4-1) - good horse, but layoff leaves a fitness question, works have been just ok
E - #9 Indy Point (9/2) - beyers fit and can run the distance
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#11 Magician
Multi-Race Horses-
12,7,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 12,7/12,7/4,8,9/4,8,9,11 = $1.80
$0.10 - 12,7/4,8,9/12,7/4,8,9,1 = $1.80
$0.10 - 12,7/4,8,9/4,8,9,11/12,7 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,8,9/12,7/12,7/4,8,9,11 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,8,9/12,7/4,8,9,11/12,7 = $1.80
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 - Action+
A - #9 Secret Circle (4-1) - Ran well in his first race off the layoff, drawn well for his style
B - #7 Private Zone (3-1) - drawn well, beyers are good, track is playing to style
C - #11 Trinniberg (8-1) - I'm going to give this guy a decent chance to repeat with the track playing to his style and reports are he is looking better and better in the morning. If he recovers his form - watch out!
D - #8 Fast Bullet (6-1) - maybe the fastest of this bunch, IF he fires, track bias should help
E - #3 Gentlemen's Bet (8-1) - beyers fit, likes to be upfront
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Justin Phillip (4-1)
#6 Bahamian Squall (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,7,11,8
Race Notes-
The tragic incident with Points Off the Bench left this race more wide open.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/7,11,8,3,1 = $5
$1 - 7,11/9 = $2
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #8 Wise Dan (Even) - drawn well for style, will win if he fires
B - #5 Olympic Glory (4-1) - Euro trying to take down the champ, is a Group 1 winner
C - #3 Silver Max (4-1) - beat Wise Dan last out on synthetic, but today is a different game, will be on the lead
D - #1 No Jet Lag (8-1)
E - #4 Obviously (10-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#10 Za Approval (15-1) - i can't believe there is a turf race is Za Approval is outside of my top 5
Multi-Race Horses-
8,5,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 8/5,3/5,3,1,4/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $3
$0.10 - 8/5,3/5,3,1,4,6,10,7/5,3,1,4 = $3
$0.10 - 8/1,4/5,3/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $2
$0.10 - 5,3/8/5,3,1,4/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic - Action+
A - #9 Game On Dude (8/5) - on the lead or sitting just off the lead a 46 and change half mile would set up for him. I like that Smith is back on him which should help him get out of the gate.
B - #6 Mucho Macho Man (5-1) - he obviously likes Santa Anita, he'll need to get outside of horses, but Gary Stevens gives confidence
C - #8 Palace Malice (10-1) - working well, 3 yr old will need to step up, but could mix it up esp. if the pace is hot
D - #10 Will Take Charge (12-1) - drawn well for style, pace will help, closes strong
E - #4 Moreno (15-1) - has been working well and style may fit this speed favoring track with no kick back in his face.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#2 Paynter (12-1) - has been working well, what a story book ending this would be if he won
#5 Declaration of War (10-1) - European trying to crash this party, is capable, but kick back is a question
Multi-Race Horses-
9,6,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9,6/9,6 = $4
$1 - 9/8,10,4,2 = $4
$1 8,10/9 = $2
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
The guide includes 5 races on the Saturday Breeders' Cup card.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Saturday Selections
Not Updated for Scratches.
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Turf G1 - Play
A - #1 Dank (5/2) - 5/2 would be a steal, seems very much the best on paper and from workout reports
B - #6 Marketing Mix (7/2) - good beyers, always runs well
C - #4 Alterite (10-1) - grade 1 winner, beyers fit, price
D - #3 Tiz Flirtatious (7/2) - another one whose beyers fit and always runs wel
E - #2 Romantica (6-1) - this Euro shipper has won a group 1 and is 3 of 4 in the win column at this distance
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 Laughing (8-1) - may scratch
#10 Kitten's Dumplings (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,6
Race Notes-
Dank should run these off their feet and I'll single her in my play.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 1/6,4,3,2,7/6,4,3,2,7 = $8
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1 - Play
A - #8 Dance to Bristol (5-1) - has been great this year while stringing several wins together
B - #5 Teddy's Promise (6-1) - likes to run up front and beyers fit
C - #11 Groupie Doll (5/2) - may not be as sharp as last year
D - #4 Dance Card (8-1) - should be up close to the lead
E - #7 Summer Applause (12-1) - cutting back, but that may be an advantage at 7f
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Judy the Beauty (6-1)
#2 Book Review (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,5,11
Race Notes-
It's obvious by the ML odds that this race is up for grabs. If Groupie Doll runs her A race then she wins, otherwise I think it sets up well for Dance to Bristol or Teddy's Promise. The track has been speed favoring, so that may come into play here.
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 8,5,11/8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7/8,5,11,4,7,9,2 = $7.20
$0.10 - 8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7/8,5,11/8,5,11,4,7,9,2 = $7.20
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1 - Action
A - #14 Unbridled's Note (8-1) - 3rd by 1/2 length last year, working well and may be ready to fire big
B - #5 Caracortado (8-1) - I've always liked this horse, and he ran good off the layoff, improvement puts him in the mix
C - #13 Dimension (12-1) - drawn well and is cutting back in distance
D - #12 Mizdirection (4-1) - won this last year, but is not working as well
E - #4 Reneesgotzip (5-1) - has not run on the turf since this race last year, but she ran good in this last year
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
Multi-Race Horses-
14,5,13
Race Notes-
Lots of options in here.
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1 - Action
A - #6 Tap It Rich (6-1) - working well, but is green with only one race, but Smith gives confidence
B - #10 We Miss Artie (8-1) - working well and is a price
C - #3 Mexikoma (12-1) - will need to prove he can run at this level, but beyers fit
D - #13 Havana (5/2) - Champagne winner is drawn wide
E - #12 Diamond Bachelor (12-1) - another price, but the track is playing to his liking
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#14 Strong Mandate (6-1) - will be really wide leaving the gate
Multi-Race Horses-
6,10,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1 - Play
A - #12 Real Solution (12-1) - working well and live at a big price, post shouldn't be a problem with distance
B - #7 The Fugue (3-1) - this mare is trying the boys this year, good runner last year in the F&M Turf, good shot
C - #4 Little Mike (6-1) - as much as I hate to say it, he could steal it again on the lead
D - #8 Point of Entry (4-1) - good horse, but layoff leaves a fitness question, works have been just ok
E - #9 Indy Point (9/2) - beyers fit and can run the distance
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#11 Magician
Multi-Race Horses-
12,7,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 12,7/12,7/4,8,9/4,8,9,11 = $1.80
$0.10 - 12,7/4,8,9/12,7/4,8,9,1 = $1.80
$0.10 - 12,7/4,8,9/4,8,9,11/12,7 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,8,9/12,7/12,7/4,8,9,11 = $1.80
$0.10 - 4,8,9/12,7/4,8,9,11/12,7 = $1.80
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 - Action+
A - #9 Secret Circle (4-1) - Ran well in his first race off the layoff, drawn well for his style
B - #7 Private Zone (3-1) - drawn well, beyers are good, track is playing to style
C - #11 Trinniberg (8-1) - I'm going to give this guy a decent chance to repeat with the track playing to his style and reports are he is looking better and better in the morning. If he recovers his form - watch out!
D - #8 Fast Bullet (6-1) - maybe the fastest of this bunch, IF he fires, track bias should help
E - #3 Gentlemen's Bet (8-1) - beyers fit, likes to be upfront
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Justin Phillip (4-1)
#6 Bahamian Squall (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,7,11,8
Race Notes-
The tragic incident with Points Off the Bench left this race more wide open.
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9/7,11,8,3,1 = $5
$1 - 7,11/9 = $2
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1 - Play
A - #8 Wise Dan (Even) - drawn well for style, will win if he fires
B - #5 Olympic Glory (4-1) - Euro trying to take down the champ, is a Group 1 winner
C - #3 Silver Max (4-1) - beat Wise Dan last out on synthetic, but today is a different game, will be on the lead
D - #1 No Jet Lag (8-1)
E - #4 Obviously (10-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#10 Za Approval (15-1) - i can't believe there is a turf race is Za Approval is outside of my top 5
Multi-Race Horses-
8,5,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$0.10 - 8/5,3/5,3,1,4/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $3
$0.10 - 8/5,3/5,3,1,4,6,10,7/5,3,1,4 = $3
$0.10 - 8/1,4/5,3/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $2
$0.10 - 5,3/8/5,3,1,4/5,3,1,4,6,10,7 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic - Action+
A - #9 Game On Dude (8/5) - on the lead or sitting just off the lead a 46 and change half mile would set up for him. I like that Smith is back on him which should help him get out of the gate.
B - #6 Mucho Macho Man (5-1) - he obviously likes Santa Anita, he'll need to get outside of horses, but Gary Stevens gives confidence
C - #8 Palace Malice (10-1) - working well, 3 yr old will need to step up, but could mix it up esp. if the pace is hot
D - #10 Will Take Charge (12-1) - drawn well for style, pace will help, closes strong
E - #4 Moreno (15-1) - has been working well and style may fit this speed favoring track with no kick back in his face.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#2 Paynter (12-1) - has been working well, what a story book ending this would be if he won
#5 Declaration of War (10-1) - European trying to crash this party, is capable, but kick back is a question
Multi-Race Horses-
9,6,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9,6/9,6 = $4
$1 - 9/8,10,4,2 = $4
$1 8,10/9 = $2
Friday, November 1, 2013
2013 Breeders' Cup Friday Selections
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Friday Selections
Updated for Scratches at 3:43pm EST.
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2 - Action
A - #10 Worldly (6-1) - Have heard good things regarding his works, distance question
B - #7 London Bridge (8-1) - As trained well over the dirt and can go distance, first dirt try
C - #6 Indian Jones (5-1) - has trained well
D - #8 Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1) - likes to run up front, how far will he fade is the question
E - #4 Ever Rider (7/2) - Though he can get the distance, this horse appears to be an underlay
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Commander (6-1) - Another front runner who may not fade out of the exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#10 Worldly
#7 London Bridge
#6 Indian Jones
Race Notes-
I'd like to say I have as much confidence in Worldly as I did in Calidoscopio last year, but I don't. The clockers' like him, but past him this race is wide open.
Suggested Plays:
Small Win bet on #10 Worldly
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #4 Brujo de Olleros (8-1) - has been working well, on paper appears one to beat off last out
B - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - is 3-5 at distance and has been working well
C - #12 Goldencents (4-1) - would love this horse here if he wasn't hung so wide and as our stats guide point out that is bad on this track configuration
D - #8 Holy Lute (20-1) - is a bomb that could really juice the Trifecta or Superfecta
E - #11 Pants on Fire (6-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Hyman Book (15-1) - should get some pace and will be close in his last start
#10 Verrazano (3-1) - a very loose favorite just feels a little up against it here and will be wide into the first turn
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Brujo de Olleros
#5 Fed Biz
#12 Goldencents
Race Notes-
I think this race sets up nicely for Brujo de Olleros and Fed Biz. Goldencents can win, but he'll have work at serious trip from the far outside post, but I would definitely use him in my exotic bets. Do not take a short price on Verrazano, while he is capable our stats guide pointed out he has his back against the wall from a couple of angles.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
$0.50 - 4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2/5,12 = $3
$0.50 - 5,12/4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
- OR -
$1 - 4/5,12,8,11,3,10,2 = $7
$1 - 5,2/4 = $2
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #4 Royal Delta (8/5) - Smith said she just seemed a little short in her last race, she has trained well to this spot and it's hard to pick against her when you hear that. She can sit or go and Smith is a smart jockey in that game.
B - #5 Beholder (5/2) - workouts have been great and I suspect she'll go early, it's just a matter of who else pushes her and can she hold off Royal Delta
C - #6 Princess of Sylmar (9/5) - ran several great races this summer, but Royal Delta may have been short in her last out and you know Mott was pointing for this race. Pace will help.
D - #3 Close Hatches (6-1) - has been working well, don't see a win, but an exotics finish would juice this up if something went wrong for the above Trio
E - #2 Authenticity (8-1) - is in good form
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder
Race Notes-
I think it will go to either Royal Delta or Beholder, I was really impressed with Princess of Sylmar's races this summer, but the plan was not to run her in this race. Her connections only recently changed their minds and decided to enter. On the flip side of that, maybe she is doing so well they decided to take another shot. Top 3 appear much the best.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4 /5,6/5,6 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,6/5,6,3,2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 4/3,2/5,6 = $2
$0.50 - 5,6/4/5,6,3,2 = $3
We've produced a stats guide for 7 of the top Breeders' Cup races. The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
You can view or print the stats guide here: 2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Friday Selections
Updated for Scratches at 3:43pm EST.
I always give 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is always my winner. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Usually play a small bet (Win or Exacta) for the action.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race. Single on Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Marathon G2 - Action
A - #10 Worldly (6-1) - Have heard good things regarding his works, distance question
B - #7 London Bridge (8-1) - As trained well over the dirt and can go distance, first dirt try
C - #6 Indian Jones (5-1) - has trained well
D - #8 Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1) - likes to run up front, how far will he fade is the question
E - #4 Ever Rider (7/2) - Though he can get the distance, this horse appears to be an underlay
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Commander (6-1) - Another front runner who may not fade out of the exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
#10 Worldly
#7 London Bridge
#6 Indian Jones
Race Notes-
I'd like to say I have as much confidence in Worldly as I did in Calidoscopio last year, but I don't. The clockers' like him, but past him this race is wide open.
Suggested Plays:
Small Win bet on #10 Worldly
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #4 Brujo de Olleros (8-1) - has been working well, on paper appears one to beat off last out
B - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - is 3-5 at distance and has been working well
C - #12 Goldencents (4-1) - would love this horse here if he wasn't hung so wide and as our stats guide point out that is bad on this track configuration
D - #8 Holy Lute (20-1) - is a bomb that could really juice the Trifecta or Superfecta
E - #11 Pants on Fire (6-1)
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#3 Hyman Book (15-1) - should get some pace and will be close in his last start
#10 Verrazano (3-1) - a very loose favorite just feels a little up against it here and will be wide into the first turn
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Brujo de Olleros
#5 Fed Biz
#12 Goldencents
Race Notes-
I think this race sets up nicely for Brujo de Olleros and Fed Biz. Goldencents can win, but he'll have work at serious trip from the far outside post, but I would definitely use him in my exotic bets. Do not take a short price on Verrazano, while he is capable our stats guide pointed out he has his back against the wall from a couple of angles.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,12/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
$0.50 - 4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2/5,12 = $3
$0.50 - 5,12/4/5,12,8,11,10,3,2 = $3
- OR -
$1 - 4/5,12,8,11,3,10,2 = $7
$1 - 5,2/4 = $2
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #4 Royal Delta (8/5) - Smith said she just seemed a little short in her last race, she has trained well to this spot and it's hard to pick against her when you hear that. She can sit or go and Smith is a smart jockey in that game.
B - #5 Beholder (5/2) - workouts have been great and I suspect she'll go early, it's just a matter of who else pushes her and can she hold off Royal Delta
C - #6 Princess of Sylmar (9/5) - ran several great races this summer, but Royal Delta may have been short in her last out and you know Mott was pointing for this race. Pace will help.
D - #3 Close Hatches (6-1) - has been working well, don't see a win, but an exotics finish would juice this up if something went wrong for the above Trio
E - #2 Authenticity (8-1) - is in good form
Multi-Race Horses-
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder
Race Notes-
I think it will go to either Royal Delta or Beholder, I was really impressed with Princess of Sylmar's races this summer, but the plan was not to run her in this race. Her connections only recently changed their minds and decided to enter. On the flip side of that, maybe she is doing so well they decided to take another shot. Top 3 appear much the best.
Suggested Plays:
$0.50 - 4 /5,6/5,6 = $1
$0.50 - 4/5,6/5,6,3,2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 4/3,2/5,6 = $2
$0.50 - 5,6/4/5,6,3,2 = $3
Thursday, October 31, 2013
2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Well, I'm finally back. I'll have my Breeders' Cup Friday Selections up late Thursday night.
I've put some stats together into a small guide for the Breeders' Cup. I would like to have done all the Breeders' Cup races, but unfortunately my real job got in the way.
The races I was able to include in the guide are:
Breeders' Cup Classic
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
To view or print the guide click the link below:
2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Enjoy the guide, it's free and I hope it helps some of you guys. Good luck at the Breeders' Cup!
I've put some stats together into a small guide for the Breeders' Cup. I would like to have done all the Breeders' Cup races, but unfortunately my real job got in the way.
The races I was able to include in the guide are:
Breeders' Cup Classic
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
The guide includes 20 years (were applicable) of stats for post position, winners by running style, post time favorite stats, Superfecta finishers by last prep track, Superfecta finishers by previous race finish, payout stats, average running times, past winners list including fractional times, top jockeys and trainers for each of the above races.
To view or print the guide click the link below:
2013 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Enjoy the guide, it's free and I hope it helps some of you guys. Good luck at the Breeders' Cup!
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Away This Fall...
I will be away from the blog this fall until the 2013 Breeders' Cup. I am currently working on/updating my horse racing database and it seems to be taking the majority of my handicapping and blog time. I am excited about the changes I am making and I hope it will help us all going forward. Look for me to return for the few weeks leading up to the 2013 Breeders' Cup. See you then!
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Colonial Downs 7-11-2013 Selections - Races 1,2,4,6,8
Pre
Scratches. I'm not sure if I will be able to update for scratches.
Card Notes-
IMPORTANT: I handicapped the turf races assuming they stay on the turf. If these races come "off the turf" do not use these selections.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None.
Race 1 - 6-1/2f DIRT Md Clm - Action
A - #6 Cherry Road (Even) - by class seems much the best and dirt #'s have been decent when compared with this bunch, but is very vulnerable
B - #3 Greatness Rules (15-1) - lots of value, switches to dirt and has posted some decent works on the dirt, the addition of blinkers and a decent jockey add confidence
C - #8 Stablemate (15-1) - in cheap md clm races when the competition isn't great first time starters have a decent shot, several works, may tag along for a piece
D - #5 Fall Colors (4-1) - closed really well last out on the dirt, but # did not come back that good
E - #9 Shades of Forever (15-1) - switches to dirt, may get a good trip on the outside
Multi-Race Horses-
6,3
Race Notes-
The #1 Ten is Magic (7/2) is worth a look, but with an off the pace style on the Cnl main track this is the horse I took a stand against. But, if one of my top 5 scratches out, the insert this one on the bottom.
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 1 mi INNER TURF Clm - Action
A - #8 R.B. Float (7/2) - appears to be in good form off recent outs, beyers fit, good recs at Cnl and distance, outside post should give a good stalking trip
B - #1 Hound (6-1) - class drop from open 10.5K, good beyers on Cnl turf, good win % at this distance, excellent trainer, will need to work out a trip
C - #6 Standing O (9/5) - solid pedigree on sire side, drops from open 16K, stretching out with potential early speed
D - #3 Pick Four (6-1) - drops in class from open 12.5K, picks up Karamanos, definitely has win potential
E - #5 Baby Time (6-1) - will be arriving on the scene late, if at all
Multi-Race Horses-
8,1,6,3,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 1-1/16mi INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 Blue Angel Express (8/5) - nice class drop and should get a good trip from this post
B - #1 Pauper's Queen (2-1) - class drop, will be running late, but will need a good trip from rail
C - #3 Shahadaroba (15-1) - this girl offers some serious value in the multi's, could end up being the main speed of the race and has run some good beyers, esp when loose on the lead, question is how far will he she fade, if at all
D - #4 Summer Court (3-1) - takes a jump up in class with win last out, style may compromise chances with lack of speed in race
E - #5 Asian Invasion (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6 / 1,3 / 1,3,4,5 = $6
$0.50 - 6 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5 = $6
$0.50 - 1,3 / 6 / 1,3,4,5 = $3
Race 6 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Action
A - #3 Seven Days (8/5) - interesting move off 7/6 work for trainer, has never run on turf, but is facing a group who is well below par
B - #1a Mo Didn't Know (5/2) - has run well at Cnl and at this distance, may scratch with same rider as #1 named
C - #7 Fancy Attitude (9/2) - last out beyer put her in mix, but did get some pace help in that race
D - #2 Pomelia (8-1) - has speed which can be good in these 5-1/2f races, Russell adds to confidence
E - #1 Highstar (5/2) - coupled entry, but is usable it the #1a scratches, will need some pace help
Multi-Race Horses-
3,1-1a,7,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 5-1/2f TURF OC - Play
A - #4 Hold On Smokey (9/5) - will be trying to hold on in the str against #6, like the early speed
B - #6 Love Those Boots (2-1) - will be trying to run down leader who got the best of this horse last out
C - #5 R. Bee Ess (4-1) - should be stalking the pace just a few lengths off, should get a really good tirp
D - #1 Agnostic (9/2) - will be running late, but Russell will need to find a way thru on the inside
E - #2 Hesagoldmine (6-1) - another late runner, may grab a piece of trifecta if everything goes right
Multi-Race Horses-
4,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 4 / 6 / 5 = $2
$1 - 6 / 4 / 5 = $1
$1 -4,6 / 4,6 / 5,1,2 = $6
$0.50 - 4,6 / 5,1,2 / 4,6 = $3
$0.50 - 4,6 / 4,6 / 3 = $1
Card Notes-
IMPORTANT: I handicapped the turf races assuming they stay on the turf. If these races come "off the turf" do not use these selections.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None.
Race 1 - 6-1/2f DIRT Md Clm - Action
A - #6 Cherry Road (Even) - by class seems much the best and dirt #'s have been decent when compared with this bunch, but is very vulnerable
B - #3 Greatness Rules (15-1) - lots of value, switches to dirt and has posted some decent works on the dirt, the addition of blinkers and a decent jockey add confidence
C - #8 Stablemate (15-1) - in cheap md clm races when the competition isn't great first time starters have a decent shot, several works, may tag along for a piece
D - #5 Fall Colors (4-1) - closed really well last out on the dirt, but # did not come back that good
E - #9 Shades of Forever (15-1) - switches to dirt, may get a good trip on the outside
Multi-Race Horses-
6,3
Race Notes-
The #1 Ten is Magic (7/2) is worth a look, but with an off the pace style on the Cnl main track this is the horse I took a stand against. But, if one of my top 5 scratches out, the insert this one on the bottom.
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 1 mi INNER TURF Clm - Action
A - #8 R.B. Float (7/2) - appears to be in good form off recent outs, beyers fit, good recs at Cnl and distance, outside post should give a good stalking trip
B - #1 Hound (6-1) - class drop from open 10.5K, good beyers on Cnl turf, good win % at this distance, excellent trainer, will need to work out a trip
C - #6 Standing O (9/5) - solid pedigree on sire side, drops from open 16K, stretching out with potential early speed
D - #3 Pick Four (6-1) - drops in class from open 12.5K, picks up Karamanos, definitely has win potential
E - #5 Baby Time (6-1) - will be arriving on the scene late, if at all
Multi-Race Horses-
8,1,6,3,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 1-1/16mi INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 Blue Angel Express (8/5) - nice class drop and should get a good trip from this post
B - #1 Pauper's Queen (2-1) - class drop, will be running late, but will need a good trip from rail
C - #3 Shahadaroba (15-1) - this girl offers some serious value in the multi's, could end up being the main speed of the race and has run some good beyers, esp when loose on the lead, question is how far will he she fade, if at all
D - #4 Summer Court (3-1) - takes a jump up in class with win last out, style may compromise chances with lack of speed in race
E - #5 Asian Invasion (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6 / 1,3 / 1,3,4,5 = $6
$0.50 - 6 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5 = $6
$0.50 - 1,3 / 6 / 1,3,4,5 = $3
Race 6 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Action
A - #3 Seven Days (8/5) - interesting move off 7/6 work for trainer, has never run on turf, but is facing a group who is well below par
B - #1a Mo Didn't Know (5/2) - has run well at Cnl and at this distance, may scratch with same rider as #1 named
C - #7 Fancy Attitude (9/2) - last out beyer put her in mix, but did get some pace help in that race
D - #2 Pomelia (8-1) - has speed which can be good in these 5-1/2f races, Russell adds to confidence
E - #1 Highstar (5/2) - coupled entry, but is usable it the #1a scratches, will need some pace help
Multi-Race Horses-
3,1-1a,7,2
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 8 - 5-1/2f TURF OC - Play
A - #4 Hold On Smokey (9/5) - will be trying to hold on in the str against #6, like the early speed
B - #6 Love Those Boots (2-1) - will be trying to run down leader who got the best of this horse last out
C - #5 R. Bee Ess (4-1) - should be stalking the pace just a few lengths off, should get a really good tirp
D - #1 Agnostic (9/2) - will be running late, but Russell will need to find a way thru on the inside
E - #2 Hesagoldmine (6-1) - another late runner, may grab a piece of trifecta if everything goes right
Multi-Race Horses-
4,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 4 / 6 / 5 = $2
$1 - 6 / 4 / 5 = $1
$1 -4,6 / 4,6 / 5,1,2 = $6
$0.50 - 4,6 / 5,1,2 / 4,6 = $3
$0.50 - 4,6 / 4,6 / 3 = $1
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Colonial Downs 7-3-2013 Selections - Races 1,4,5,7
Pre
Scratches. I'm not sure if I will be able to update for scratches.
Card Notes-
IMPORTANT: I handicapped these races assuming they stay on the turf. If these races come "off the turf" do not use these selections.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None.
Race 1 - 5-1/2F TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 Harbor Fox (6-1) - class drops from open 10k, hoping Karamanos carry nurse a lead all the way
B - #9 Magical Merry (9/5) - takes a pretty big class drop with good beyers, logical choice
C - #11 Wild Heir Cat (4-1) - has never run on turf, but pedigree suggest he'll like it, strong jockey/trainer combo
D - #7 Kalahari Queen (6-1)
E - #4 Good's Secret (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,9,11
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Action+
A - #3 Pioneer Zephyr (5/2) - class drop, beyers fit
B - #9 Sally Oh Sally (2-1) - has run well at Cnl and distance, should get a good trip
C - #7 Bridge Night (8-1) - appears to be the main speed, though others could challange
D - #6 Cee's Fast (8-1)
E - #8 Darn Proud (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,7,6,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Play
A - #2 Citizen Chris (4-1) - was blocked badly last out, the rallied once clear, serious upset chance
B - #4 Arkle Park (7/5) - class drops from MSW, should be close to pace with good trip
C - #6 Vestry (8-1) - class drop, good pedigree, has run some decent races at Cnl
D - #3 Ascendancy (7/2) - has never run on turf, but trainer gives some confidence to ability
E - #1 Marriage Fever (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 5-1/2f TURF - Action+
A - #1 Sea Bubble (9/5) - drops from MSW 40K, bred well, presence of Russell adds confidence
B - #3 Lemon Cookie (5/2) - ran a good second last out, plenty of room for improvment
C - #7 Country Sunshing (7/2) - rallied for 3rd last out while 5 wide
D - #5 Ebony Wings (6-1)
E - #6 Hidetheblackgold (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,7,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Card Notes-
IMPORTANT: I handicapped these races assuming they stay on the turf. If these races come "off the turf" do not use these selections.
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None.
Race 1 - 5-1/2F TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 Harbor Fox (6-1) - class drops from open 10k, hoping Karamanos carry nurse a lead all the way
B - #9 Magical Merry (9/5) - takes a pretty big class drop with good beyers, logical choice
C - #11 Wild Heir Cat (4-1) - has never run on turf, but pedigree suggest he'll like it, strong jockey/trainer combo
D - #7 Kalahari Queen (6-1)
E - #4 Good's Secret (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,9,11
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Action+
A - #3 Pioneer Zephyr (5/2) - class drop, beyers fit
B - #9 Sally Oh Sally (2-1) - has run well at Cnl and distance, should get a good trip
C - #7 Bridge Night (8-1) - appears to be the main speed, though others could challange
D - #6 Cee's Fast (8-1)
E - #8 Darn Proud (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,7,6,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Play
A - #2 Citizen Chris (4-1) - was blocked badly last out, the rallied once clear, serious upset chance
B - #4 Arkle Park (7/5) - class drops from MSW, should be close to pace with good trip
C - #6 Vestry (8-1) - class drop, good pedigree, has run some decent races at Cnl
D - #3 Ascendancy (7/2) - has never run on turf, but trainer gives some confidence to ability
E - #1 Marriage Fever (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 5-1/2f TURF - Action+
A - #1 Sea Bubble (9/5) - drops from MSW 40K, bred well, presence of Russell adds confidence
B - #3 Lemon Cookie (5/2) - ran a good second last out, plenty of room for improvment
C - #7 Country Sunshing (7/2) - rallied for 3rd last out while 5 wide
D - #5 Ebony Wings (6-1)
E - #6 Hidetheblackgold (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,7,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Colonial Downs 6-26-2013 - Races 1,2,3,5
Pre
Scratches. I will be unable to update for scratches.
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None.
Race 1 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #6 Subtle Demeanor (4-1) - class drop MSW
B - #8 Campbell Creek (9/2) - better #'s have been on turf
C - #4 Polly's Pride (3-1) - first out, but has a nice work tab
D - #5 Sherwood Outlaw (5-1)
E - #1a Class Joy (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,4,8,5,1a
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 5f INNER TURF Clm - Action+
A - #1 Military Mary (8-1) - is 2-0-1 out of 3 starts on the inner turf, 1 hole will play to style
B - #3 Trappist Monk (5/2)
C - #8 Five Star Prince (5-1)
D - #4 Dylan My Villain (6-1)
E - #5 Tequila Rules (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,8,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 5-1/2f TURF OC - Action
A - #7 Hold on Smokey (2-1) - is speed of race, but is in for a tag after a slow performance last out
B - #3 Love Those Boots (4-1) - ran well last out to beat Clm 35K
C - #2 Agonistic (8-1) - not sure there is enough pace to win, but will probably be in the mix
D - #6 Grain (30-1) - No turf experience, but is well bred
E - #1 Wire Funds (9/2) - in for a tag, but beat Alw 7500 3 starts back should be up close to the pace and is 8 of 13 in exacta on turf
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 5f TURF Clm - Play
A - #2 Crimson Comic (6/5) - closed well last out, most races have been against much better
B - #8 Venture Capital (7/5) - class drop, should get a good trip from post
C - #5 Copelan's Ridge (12-1) - may be the speed of race and could wire with easy lead, but I'm going with class and experienced riders over this speed
D - #4 Foralltheglory (15-1)
E - #3 Parker'sgoldencat (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,8,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 2 / 8 / 5 = $3
$2 - 2 / 5 / 8 = $2
$3 - 8 / 2 / 5 = $3
$1 - 8 / 5 / 2 = $1
$0.50 - 8,2 / 8,2,5 / 5,4,3 = $5
$0.50 - 8,2 / 5,4,3 / 8,2 = $3
$0.50 - 5 / 8,2 / 8,2,4 = $2
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
None.
Race 1 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #6 Subtle Demeanor (4-1) - class drop MSW
B - #8 Campbell Creek (9/2) - better #'s have been on turf
C - #4 Polly's Pride (3-1) - first out, but has a nice work tab
D - #5 Sherwood Outlaw (5-1)
E - #1a Class Joy (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,4,8,5,1a
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 5f INNER TURF Clm - Action+
A - #1 Military Mary (8-1) - is 2-0-1 out of 3 starts on the inner turf, 1 hole will play to style
B - #3 Trappist Monk (5/2)
C - #8 Five Star Prince (5-1)
D - #4 Dylan My Villain (6-1)
E - #5 Tequila Rules (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,8,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 5-1/2f TURF OC - Action
A - #7 Hold on Smokey (2-1) - is speed of race, but is in for a tag after a slow performance last out
B - #3 Love Those Boots (4-1) - ran well last out to beat Clm 35K
C - #2 Agonistic (8-1) - not sure there is enough pace to win, but will probably be in the mix
D - #6 Grain (30-1) - No turf experience, but is well bred
E - #1 Wire Funds (9/2) - in for a tag, but beat Alw 7500 3 starts back should be up close to the pace and is 8 of 13 in exacta on turf
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 5 - 5f TURF Clm - Play
A - #2 Crimson Comic (6/5) - closed well last out, most races have been against much better
B - #8 Venture Capital (7/5) - class drop, should get a good trip from post
C - #5 Copelan's Ridge (12-1) - may be the speed of race and could wire with easy lead, but I'm going with class and experienced riders over this speed
D - #4 Foralltheglory (15-1)
E - #3 Parker'sgoldencat (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
2,8,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 2 / 8 / 5 = $3
$2 - 2 / 5 / 8 = $2
$3 - 8 / 2 / 5 = $3
$1 - 8 / 5 / 2 = $1
$0.50 - 8,2 / 8,2,5 / 5,4,3 = $5
$0.50 - 8,2 / 5,4,3 / 8,2 = $3
$0.50 - 5 / 8,2 / 8,2,4 = $2
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Colonial Downs 6-20-2013 - Races 1,2,4-7
Pre Scratches. I will be unable to update for scratches as I will be at the track today, but I have listed alternate horses to use in case of scratches.
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Race 1 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF MSW - Play
A - #1 Sunbaked (5-1) - drops from higher priced open MSW, showed brief speed last out
B - #4 Lady Olivia (2-1) - short price on a horse that has never sprinted and is running for the first time in 7 months, but does show a good work tab and the presence of Russell encourages
C - #7 Cherry Road (12-1) - scratched yesterday, so will run today, has speed, but maybe a cut below
D - #2 Said in Silence (5/2) - drops from open MSW
E - #10 Class Gogo (15-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#3 Trout Lily (20-1)
#8 Royal Circus (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,4,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 1 / 4 / 7 = $3
$2 - 1 / 7 / 4 = $2
$3 - 4 / 1 / 7 = $3
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4 / 7,2,10 = $6
$0.50 - 1,4 / 7,2,10 / 7,2,10 = $6
$0.50 - 1.4 / 7,2,10 / 1,4 = $3
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi INNER TURF Clm - Weak
A - #4 Smoothe Landing (7/2) - runs well and close to par on turf
B - #1 Hatta (3-1) - has run well on turf in past
C - #8 Moonovermanhattan (12-1) - first on turf, but bred well
D - #3 Sugah Sweet (6-1)
E - #6 Wadocashski (8-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#9 Golly Gin (9/2)
#2 Fly Unitedly (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1,8,3,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 1 mi INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #9 Brand New Moves (7/2) - class drops from open company, has drilled par for this class several times, Boyce is riding well at this meet too
B - #3 Whiskey Keg (4-1) - class drop, has run to par, likely
C - #8 Silber Stern (5-1) - has been run against much better, huge class drop, has speed
D - #5 Bakyt (6-1)
E - #4 Prince Robear (12-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#2 Francesco Punch (5-1)
#1 What a Wildcat (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,3,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9 / 3 / 8 = $5
$1 - 9 / 8 / 3 = $1
$1 - 3 / 9 / 8 - $1
$0.50 - 9 / 3,8,5,4 / 3,8,5,4 = $6
$.50 -3,8 / 9 / 3,8,5,4 = $3
$.50 - 3,8 / 3,8,5,4 / 9 = $3
Race 5 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Action+
A - #11 Veritas Man (5/2) - has shown speed which could win it here
B - #4 Try the Impossible (8-1) - first out, but is well bred
C - #2 Stake the Claim (15-1) - first out with a decent last work
D - #3 More Glitter (20-1)
E - #10 Winning Quest (4-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#5 Lady E (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
11,4,2,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #10 Bettymo (5/2) - has had some close seconds
B - #3 Runway (10-1) - drops from MSW
C - #4 Heart and Seek (7/2) - solid work tab for first outer, presence of Russell encourages
D - #1 Bucaramanga (5-1)
E - #9 Mshomecomingqueen (8-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#7 Nikoldini (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
10,3,4,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #5 Boatyard (9/5) - class drops, well bred with good records, but will have to beat older horses
B - #7 Silent Tale (10-1) - decent finish last turf out, will need some pace
C - #4 Irunalatte (20-1) - class drop, but has only won 1 in 16 on turf
D - #13 Jewelian 'n Roses (5-1) - ran a big # last turf out, will need to repeat that to win
E - #9 Bocono (6-1) - well bred for turf
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#12 Tooth N Claw (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,7,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5 / 7 / 4 = $2
$1 - 5 / 7,4,13 / 7,4,13 = $6
$0.50 - 5 / 7,4,13,9 / 7,4,13,9 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 5 / 7,4,13,9 = $3
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,13,9 / 5 = $3
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Race 1 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF MSW - Play
A - #1 Sunbaked (5-1) - drops from higher priced open MSW, showed brief speed last out
B - #4 Lady Olivia (2-1) - short price on a horse that has never sprinted and is running for the first time in 7 months, but does show a good work tab and the presence of Russell encourages
C - #7 Cherry Road (12-1) - scratched yesterday, so will run today, has speed, but maybe a cut below
D - #2 Said in Silence (5/2) - drops from open MSW
E - #10 Class Gogo (15-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#3 Trout Lily (20-1)
#8 Royal Circus (20-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
1,4,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 1 / 4 / 7 = $3
$2 - 1 / 7 / 4 = $2
$3 - 4 / 1 / 7 = $3
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4 / 7,2,10 = $6
$0.50 - 1,4 / 7,2,10 / 7,2,10 = $6
$0.50 - 1.4 / 7,2,10 / 1,4 = $3
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi INNER TURF Clm - Weak
A - #4 Smoothe Landing (7/2) - runs well and close to par on turf
B - #1 Hatta (3-1) - has run well on turf in past
C - #8 Moonovermanhattan (12-1) - first on turf, but bred well
D - #3 Sugah Sweet (6-1)
E - #6 Wadocashski (8-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#9 Golly Gin (9/2)
#2 Fly Unitedly (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,1,8,3,6
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 4 - 1 mi INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #9 Brand New Moves (7/2) - class drops from open company, has drilled par for this class several times, Boyce is riding well at this meet too
B - #3 Whiskey Keg (4-1) - class drop, has run to par, likely
C - #8 Silber Stern (5-1) - has been run against much better, huge class drop, has speed
D - #5 Bakyt (6-1)
E - #4 Prince Robear (12-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#2 Francesco Punch (5-1)
#1 What a Wildcat (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
9,3,8
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 9 / 3 / 8 = $5
$1 - 9 / 8 / 3 = $1
$1 - 3 / 9 / 8 - $1
$0.50 - 9 / 3,8,5,4 / 3,8,5,4 = $6
$.50 -3,8 / 9 / 3,8,5,4 = $3
$.50 - 3,8 / 3,8,5,4 / 9 = $3
Race 5 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF Md Clm - Action+
A - #11 Veritas Man (5/2) - has shown speed which could win it here
B - #4 Try the Impossible (8-1) - first out, but is well bred
C - #2 Stake the Claim (15-1) - first out with a decent last work
D - #3 More Glitter (20-1)
E - #10 Winning Quest (4-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#5 Lady E (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
11,4,2,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #10 Bettymo (5/2) - has had some close seconds
B - #3 Runway (10-1) - drops from MSW
C - #4 Heart and Seek (7/2) - solid work tab for first outer, presence of Russell encourages
D - #1 Bucaramanga (5-1)
E - #9 Mshomecomingqueen (8-1)
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#7 Nikoldini (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
10,3,4,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #5 Boatyard (9/5) - class drops, well bred with good records, but will have to beat older horses
B - #7 Silent Tale (10-1) - decent finish last turf out, will need some pace
C - #4 Irunalatte (20-1) - class drop, but has only won 1 in 16 on turf
D - #13 Jewelian 'n Roses (5-1) - ran a big # last turf out, will need to repeat that to win
E - #9 Bocono (6-1) - well bred for turf
Alternate Horses- (in order of preference)
#12 Tooth N Claw (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,7,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 5 / 7 / 4 = $2
$1 - 5 / 7,4,13 / 7,4,13 = $6
$0.50 - 5 / 7,4,13,9 / 7,4,13,9 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 5 / 7,4,13,9 = $3
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,13,9 / 5 = $3
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Colonial Downs 6-19-2013 - Races 1,3-7
Updated 5:21pm.
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 7,2 / 7,4 / 6,1 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 7,4,10 / 6,1,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 7,2,3 / 7 / 6,1,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 7,2,3 / 7,4,10 / 6 = $4.50
Race 1 - 1-1/16 mi INNER TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #6 Miss Nunn Finer (12-1) - well bred for turf, had trouble last time out on turf, should improve
B - #12 Work It Out (5-1) - 1st out in 2013, runs well at Cnl, class drop from MSW
C - #11 Rattle Awhile (6-1)
D - #5 Grace of God (10-1)
E - #8 Motown Mambo (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,12,11,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 6-1/2f DIRT MSW - Play
A - #7 Herthum (5/2) - first out in 2013, but works suggest ready and big class drop from last out
B - #2 C F's Bullet (12-1) - has every right to turn things around from green effort last out, esp. with Hamilton Smith in his corner, lots of value
C - #3 Time of the Sword (3-1) - first out, well bred, exotics use
D - #1 Wild Kiss (10-1)
E - #9 Street Shark (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,2,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7 / 2 / 3 = $2
$1 - 7,2 / 7,2,3 / 7,2,3 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 2,3,1,9 / 2,3,1,9 = $6
$0.50 - 2,3 / 7,2,3 / 7,2,3,1,9 = $6
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #7 Nag Nag Nag (5/2) - class drop, has run well at dist and Cnl, should get first jump on leaders
B - #4 Heavy Favorite (4-1) - can sit close if pace is slow, get class relief and should move fwd from last out, past turf #'s good
C - #10 Prom Queen (2-1) - may go for early lead, but is 0 for 5 on turf at this distance not a horse I want as my top selection at a short price, 2nd out 2013
D - #1 Ken Sing a Song (15-1) - past turf #'s suggest she could mix it up with these and at a price, value
E - #11 - Boastful Dancer (15-1) - should be in exotics mix if runs to best, but poor effort last out is a concern
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,10
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$5 - 7 / 4 / 10 = $5
$3 - 7 / 10 / 4 = $3
$2 - 4 / 7 / 10 - $2
$0.50 - 7 / 4,10,1,11 / 4,10,1,11 = $6
$.50 - 4,10 / 7 / 4,10,1,11 = $3
$.50 - 4,10 / 4,10,1,11 / 7 = $3
Race 5 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 To Dubai (9/5) - class drop, speed, has run better than par
B - #1 E.J. Little Boy (7/2) - class drop, has bettered par a few times, but is 1 for 11 at distance
C - #3 Friskie J. (10-1)
D - #8 Deep Regret (8-1)
E - #9 Alta Boy (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 6 / 1 / 3 = $3
$2 - 6 / 3 / 1 = $2
$2 - 1 / 6 / 3 = $2
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1 / 3,8,9 = $6
$0.50 - 6,1 / 3,8,9 / 3,8,9 = $6
$0.50 - 6,1 / 3,8,9 / 6,1 = $3
Race 6 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Action+
A - #10 Brahms (12-1) - closed well last out, slight class drop
B - #6 Pea Ridge (7/2) - 1st out 2013, but work suggest ready, adds blinkers
C - #12 Total Regs (10-1) - class drop, bred well for turf
D - #8 Rising Ember (12-1)
E - #7 Let's Drink On It (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
10,6,12,8,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1 mi INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 Rhetoricalquestion (8-1) - runs better on turf, can show speed and this race lacks it
B - #7 Donttangowithmango (5/2) - gets lots of class relief from recent outs, should be around at finish
C - #5 Anime (8/5) - runs well at this distance, is all over par and class dropping, but off pace style could hurt here, chance if lays closer to pace
D - #1 Silentiary (5-1) - good beyers, should sit a stalking trip, just feel like others are a little better
E - #2 Printasticat (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6,7 / 6,7 / 5,1,2 = $6
$1 - 6 / 5 / 7,1,2 = $3
$.50 - 6 / 1 / 7,5,2 = $1.50
$.50 - 5 / 6,7 / 6,7 = $1
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 7,2 / 7,4 / 6,1 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 7,4,10 / 6,1,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 7,2,3 / 7 / 6,1,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 7,2,3 / 7,4,10 / 6 = $4.50
Race 1 - 1-1/16 mi INNER TURF Md Clm - Action
A - #6 Miss Nunn Finer (12-1) - well bred for turf, had trouble last time out on turf, should improve
B - #12 Work It Out (5-1) - 1st out in 2013, runs well at Cnl, class drop from MSW
C - #11 Rattle Awhile (6-1)
D - #5 Grace of God (10-1)
E - #8 Motown Mambo (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,12,11,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 3 - 6-1/2f DIRT MSW - Play
A - #7 Herthum (5/2) - first out in 2013, but works suggest ready and big class drop from last out
B - #2 C F's Bullet (12-1) - has every right to turn things around from green effort last out, esp. with Hamilton Smith in his corner, lots of value
C - #3 Time of the Sword (3-1) - first out, well bred, exotics use
D - #1 Wild Kiss (10-1)
E - #9 Street Shark (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,2,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$2 - 7 / 2 / 3 = $2
$1 - 7,2 / 7,2,3 / 7,2,3 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 2,3,1,9 / 2,3,1,9 = $6
$0.50 - 2,3 / 7,2,3 / 7,2,3,1,9 = $6
Race 4 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #7 Nag Nag Nag (5/2) - class drop, has run well at dist and Cnl, should get first jump on leaders
B - #4 Heavy Favorite (4-1) - can sit close if pace is slow, get class relief and should move fwd from last out, past turf #'s good
C - #10 Prom Queen (2-1) - may go for early lead, but is 0 for 5 on turf at this distance not a horse I want as my top selection at a short price, 2nd out 2013
D - #1 Ken Sing a Song (15-1) - past turf #'s suggest she could mix it up with these and at a price, value
E - #11 - Boastful Dancer (15-1) - should be in exotics mix if runs to best, but poor effort last out is a concern
Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,10
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$5 - 7 / 4 / 10 = $5
$3 - 7 / 10 / 4 = $3
$2 - 4 / 7 / 10 - $2
$0.50 - 7 / 4,10,1,11 / 4,10,1,11 = $6
$.50 - 4,10 / 7 / 4,10,1,11 = $3
$.50 - 4,10 / 4,10,1,11 / 7 = $3
Race 5 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 To Dubai (9/5) - class drop, speed, has run better than par
B - #1 E.J. Little Boy (7/2) - class drop, has bettered par a few times, but is 1 for 11 at distance
C - #3 Friskie J. (10-1)
D - #8 Deep Regret (8-1)
E - #9 Alta Boy (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,3
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 6 / 1 / 3 = $3
$2 - 6 / 3 / 1 = $2
$2 - 1 / 6 / 3 = $2
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1 / 3,8,9 = $6
$0.50 - 6,1 / 3,8,9 / 3,8,9 = $6
$0.50 - 6,1 / 3,8,9 / 6,1 = $3
Race 6 - 5-1/2f TURF Md Clm - Action+
A - #10 Brahms (12-1) - closed well last out, slight class drop
B - #6 Pea Ridge (7/2) - 1st out 2013, but work suggest ready, adds blinkers
C - #12 Total Regs (10-1) - class drop, bred well for turf
D - #8 Rising Ember (12-1)
E - #7 Let's Drink On It (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
10,6,12,8,7
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 7 - 1 mi INNER TURF Clm - Play
A - #6 Rhetoricalquestion (8-1) - runs better on turf, can show speed and this race lacks it
B - #7 Donttangowithmango (5/2) - gets lots of class relief from recent outs, should be around at finish
C - #5 Anime (8/5) - runs well at this distance, is all over par and class dropping, but off pace style could hurt here, chance if lays closer to pace
D - #1 Silentiary (5-1) - good beyers, should sit a stalking trip, just feel like others are a little better
E - #2 Printasticat (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
6,7,5,1
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$1 - 6,7 / 6,7 / 5,1,2 = $6
$1 - 6 / 5 / 7,1,2 = $3
$.50 - 6 / 1 / 7,5,2 = $1.50
$.50 - 5 / 6,7 / 6,7 = $1
Saturday, June 15, 2013
Colonial Downs 6-16-2013 - Races 1-3,6,7
Pre Scratches. I am not sure I will have time to update for scratches. Just in case I am listing alternate horses for each race.
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 1,2,3
$0.50 - 5,3 / 7,3 / 4,5 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 7,3,6 / 4,5,6,2 = $6
$0.50 - 5,3,2,4 / 7 / 4,5,6,2 = $8
$0.50 - 5,3,2,4 / 7,3,6 / 4 = $6
Race 1 - 1-1/16 mi INNER TURF Clm - Action
A - #5 Powerful Juju (8-1) - class drop, like last work, 2-3 in exacta at Cnl
B - #3 Emmara Gale (5/2) - class drop, time was a little better than Par at Pim 2 back
C - #2 Hit by a Hurricane (6-1) - class dropper can close
D - #4 Wicked Jazz (3-1)
E - #7 Rustify (12-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#8 Green Mint (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #7 Gas Tank (4-1) - huge relief in class, runs well at Cnl, impressive md break here last year, good last work, may have best early SP, like the sire for turf
B - #3 Dutyhonorcountry (4/5) - big class relief, beyer's fit here
C - #6 Class Cap (5-1) - good recs at distance and Cnl, beyers put him a cut below best
D - #4 Summer in Giza (10-1)
E - #8 Afternoon Jazz (20-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#9 Super Brian (20-1)
#5 Ol' Henry (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3,6
Race Notes-
#7 Gas Tank offers some value, esp. if he goes off at 4-1.
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 7 / 3 / 6 = $3
$2 - 7 / 6 / 3 = $2
$2 - 3 / 7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 7,3 / 7,3 / 6,4,8 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 6,4,8 / 6,4,8 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 6,4,8 / 7,3 = $3
Race 3 - 5-1/2f TURF sAlw - Action+
A - #4 Relentless Move (9/5) - beat better last out, 4-4 in Exacta at Cnl and 7-7 in Exacta at distance, class drop, should handle these
B - #5 Drunken Love (8/5) - nice class drop and records at distance and Cnl, potential to jump out to early lead
C - #6 R. Bee Ess (5-1) - class drop, beyer's fit and records at Cnl and distance are good, may sit a good trip if SP fails
D - #2 Book the Crook (15-1) - rates a huge upset at a nice price if a speed duel takes place
E - #3 Dont Blame the Cat (8-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#7 Hesagoldmine (15-1)
#1 Venture Capital (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,6,2
Race Notes-
Another horse in here that could really upset if a speed duel takes place is the #7 Hesagoldmine. He's a cut below, but can really close late.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF - Play
A - #3 Excessive Essence (7/2) - work suggest ready to fire, results 2 and 3 back say he can get the best of these, Russell will probably go for lead here
B - #9 D' Pepjo (3-1) - switching back to turf and 2nd off claim for 29% claiming trainer, class drop and has run to par previoulsy
C - #5 Gottalovethedrake (2-1) - slight class drop, but only 1 win in 14 starts at this distance on the turf leaves this horse very vulnerable, plus his style doesn't fit this inner turf
D - #6 Flyingtobechilders (8-1)
E - #8 Generation Speed (8-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#1 Star Maneuver (15-1)
#4 Bulaga (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 3 / 9 / 5 = $3
$2 - 3 / 5 / 9 = $2
$2 - 9 / 3 / 5 = $2
$1 - 3,9 / 3,9 / 5,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 3,9 / 5,6,8 / 5,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 3,9 / 5,6,8 / 3,9 = $3
Race 7 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF - Action+
A - #8 Mosaicist (9/5) - class drop and has finished well against much better, early speed, like last work and unlike a lot of these has run in 2013
B - #1 Caribbean Lady (3-1) - if I was going to bet any of these off layoffs it would be this one, has run better than par in the past and the work tab looks very solid, big contender
C - #1a Thisdanseistaken (3-1) - the lesser of the coupled entry, but is 3-3 at Cnl with class, but is coming off layoff
D - #5 Miss Oil (8-1) - another coming off a layoff
E - #4 Uno's Wild Angel (4-1) - comes from a 13 month layoff with just a few published works, maybe, but big questions
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#3 Lion Down by Me (12-1)
#7 Heaven Knows What (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,1-1a,5,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Card Notes-
My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race. Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet. Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race. Good Exacta or Trifecta play. Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single. Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets
Multirace Bets-
Pick 3 - Races 1,2,3
$0.50 - 5,3 / 7,3 / 4,5 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 7,3,6 / 4,5,6,2 = $6
$0.50 - 5,3,2,4 / 7 / 4,5,6,2 = $8
$0.50 - 5,3,2,4 / 7,3,6 / 4 = $6
Race 1 - 1-1/16 mi INNER TURF Clm - Action
A - #5 Powerful Juju (8-1) - class drop, like last work, 2-3 in exacta at Cnl
B - #3 Emmara Gale (5/2) - class drop, time was a little better than Par at Pim 2 back
C - #2 Hit by a Hurricane (6-1) - class dropper can close
D - #4 Wicked Jazz (3-1)
E - #7 Rustify (12-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#8 Green Mint (7/2)
Multi-Race Horses-
5,3,2,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
Race 2 - 5-1/2f TURF Clm - Play
A - #7 Gas Tank (4-1) - huge relief in class, runs well at Cnl, impressive md break here last year, good last work, may have best early SP, like the sire for turf
B - #3 Dutyhonorcountry (4/5) - big class relief, beyer's fit here
C - #6 Class Cap (5-1) - good recs at distance and Cnl, beyers put him a cut below best
D - #4 Summer in Giza (10-1)
E - #8 Afternoon Jazz (20-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#9 Super Brian (20-1)
#5 Ol' Henry (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
7,3,6
Race Notes-
#7 Gas Tank offers some value, esp. if he goes off at 4-1.
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 7 / 3 / 6 = $3
$2 - 7 / 6 / 3 = $2
$2 - 3 / 7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 7,3 / 7,3 / 6,4,8 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 6,4,8 / 6,4,8 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 6,4,8 / 7,3 = $3
Race 3 - 5-1/2f TURF sAlw - Action+
A - #4 Relentless Move (9/5) - beat better last out, 4-4 in Exacta at Cnl and 7-7 in Exacta at distance, class drop, should handle these
B - #5 Drunken Love (8/5) - nice class drop and records at distance and Cnl, potential to jump out to early lead
C - #6 R. Bee Ess (5-1) - class drop, beyer's fit and records at Cnl and distance are good, may sit a good trip if SP fails
D - #2 Book the Crook (15-1) - rates a huge upset at a nice price if a speed duel takes place
E - #3 Dont Blame the Cat (8-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#7 Hesagoldmine (15-1)
#1 Venture Capital (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
4,5,6,2
Race Notes-
Another horse in here that could really upset if a speed duel takes place is the #7 Hesagoldmine. He's a cut below, but can really close late.
Suggested Plays:
Race 6 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF - Play
A - #3 Excessive Essence (7/2) - work suggest ready to fire, results 2 and 3 back say he can get the best of these, Russell will probably go for lead here
B - #9 D' Pepjo (3-1) - switching back to turf and 2nd off claim for 29% claiming trainer, class drop and has run to par previoulsy
C - #5 Gottalovethedrake (2-1) - slight class drop, but only 1 win in 14 starts at this distance on the turf leaves this horse very vulnerable, plus his style doesn't fit this inner turf
D - #6 Flyingtobechilders (8-1)
E - #8 Generation Speed (8-1)
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#1 Star Maneuver (15-1)
#4 Bulaga (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
3,9,5
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
$3 - 3 / 9 / 5 = $3
$2 - 3 / 5 / 9 = $2
$2 - 9 / 3 / 5 = $2
$1 - 3,9 / 3,9 / 5,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 3,9 / 5,6,8 / 5,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 3,9 / 5,6,8 / 3,9 = $3
Race 7 - 5-1/2f INNER TURF - Action+
A - #8 Mosaicist (9/5) - class drop and has finished well against much better, early speed, like last work and unlike a lot of these has run in 2013
B - #1 Caribbean Lady (3-1) - if I was going to bet any of these off layoffs it would be this one, has run better than par in the past and the work tab looks very solid, big contender
C - #1a Thisdanseistaken (3-1) - the lesser of the coupled entry, but is 3-3 at Cnl with class, but is coming off layoff
D - #5 Miss Oil (8-1) - another coming off a layoff
E - #4 Uno's Wild Angel (4-1) - comes from a 13 month layoff with just a few published works, maybe, but big questions
Alternate Horses - to be used in case of scratches, listed in order of preference
#3 Lion Down by Me (12-1)
#7 Heaven Knows What (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses-
8,1-1a,5,4
Race Notes-
Suggested Plays:
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