I was gone over the weekend, so I didn't get a chance to handicap the races. Here's a look back at my thoughts once I watched the races. Also, I'll be handicapping this weekend for the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes.
Wood Memorial
I thought Verrazano ran ok. He did what was asked of him and he sat a good trip just a few lengths behind a slow pace. Also, it was good to see him repel the bid by Vijack. In this race I would ignore the beyer for a couple of reasons: 1) A 5 to 10 point improvement (which 3 yr olds are easily capable of) would definitely put him in the mix to win the Kentucky Derby 2) When looking at Beyer figures it is always important to note how the figure was earned. A slow pace can definitely impacted the figure and Verrazano did just enough to win the race by holding Vijack at bay in the stretch, which was all that was asked of him. And they did come home in 36-2/5 seconds, which is fair.
Vijack ran a decent race, but was compromised by the pace. Still, he had his chance to run past Verrazano and he couldn't get there, fading to 3rd nearing the wire. With this in mind I think Vijack may have proven he is a cut below the best. Normandy Invasion is the horse I am most intrigued with coming out of this race. I didn't like any of the horses coming out of the Risen Star, except Normandy Invasion. To be honest I was cheering harder for him to get 2nd than for Verrazano to win, because 2nd or 3rd was likely the difference in Normandy Invasion even making the Kentucky Derby field. With his style, he'll have some traffic to deal with, but he definitely runs well late and should mix it up at the end of the Derby. Mr. Palmer is another horse to watch going forward. He maybe just a little later developing, but watch for him to show up in the Preakness or Belmont.
Santa Anita Derby
With Flashback being injured, I didn't think there was much to comment on coming out of this race. Mainly, because Goldencents and Flashback crushed the Santa Anita Derby field. Though it may not have been the best SA Derby field, the two definitely distinguished themselves among the top contenders from the West Coast. We'll have to wait for Flashback's return from the injury, but Goldencents will be moving on to Kentucky. Goldencents sat a good trip and easily went by Super Ninety-Nine who wanted no part of the 1-1/8 mile race. Goldencents did find more when challenged by Flashback, but we'll never know if any of that was due to the injury incurred by Flashback. With that said, Goldencents is a horse to include in your Kentucky Derby watchlist. Could he win the race? Certainly. But he also seems like a good horse to use in the exotics based on the fact that he should be slowing down toward the end, but may still hold on for 2nd or 3rd. As with any Kentucky Derby prospect, we'll have to see how he works in the weeks leading up.
Kentucky Derby Watchlist
At this point these are the horses I am watching, but we'll get a lot more serious after the Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby this weekend. These are not necessarily in order.
1) Revolutionary
2) Normandy Invasion
3) Verrazano
4) Orb
5) Oxbow
6) Will Take Charge
7) Goldencents
No comments:
Post a Comment