Updated for scratches.
Saturday 11-3-2012 - Santa Anita
Multi-Race Plays
Pick 6 - Races 7,8,9,10,11,12 - $2 Minimum
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $1152.00
- OR -
$2 - 7,13,10,1 / 9,1,4 / 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $2304.00
Pick 4 - Races 9,10,11,12 - $0.50 Minimum
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5 = $24
- OR -
$0.50 - 5,1,3,12 / 9,6,11,2 / 9,6,2 / 5,11 = $48
Race 5 - Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint G1
A - #9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Outclasses field, Welsch loved 10/29 work, good post - Winner $3.40
B - #3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2) - Maybe lone speed in race, will have to hold off Groupie Doll - Second
C - #8 Musical Romance (4-1) - Like the work pattern, will sit close to pace, good Exacta/Trifecta chance
D - #6 Turbulent Descent (5-1) - 4 of 6 at 7f, has some upside, but only for exotics
E - #10 Switch (10-1) - may represent the only value in this race for exotics - Third
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Teddy's Promise (20-1) - would be a good add-on in Trifecta/Superfecta, owns a G1 win at SA at 7f
Multi-Race Horses-
#9 Groupie Doll (Even) - Would be a single if you need one
#3 Dust and Diamonds (9/2)
Race Notes-
I think there are two minor (and I stress minor) things that could open Groupie Doll up to being beat. First, shipping to SA and how will she handle the surface, but she has shipped a little and been ok. Second, could be a pace scenerio where Dust and Diamonds movies forward and steals the lead. I think this is the mostly likely scenerio if Groupie Doll gets beat, but again I think that is a small chance. The rest are all running for 2nd or 3rd. I heard Asmussen said, "I don't think I can beat Groupie Doll".
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$10 - 9/3 = $10 - Hit $60.00
$5 - 9/8,6 = $10
$5 - 3/9 = $5
$2 - 9/10
Trifecta
$3 - 9/3,8,6/3,8,6 = $18
$1 - 9/3,8,6/10,1 = $6 - Hit $43.10
$.50 - 9/10,1/3,8,6 = $3
$.50 - 3/9/8,6,10,1 = $2
Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile G1
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1) - I think he'll like the cut back, Mike Welsch liked last work, can sit behind speed
B - #7 Emcee (5/2) - Sensational 10/19 work, should get good trip, never been 2 turns, good beyer #'s
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1) - seems to have bounced back, has won G1 around 2 turns, tough it at best
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1) - could sit a good trip just behind speed, rounds out top contenders
E - #4 John Scott (12-1) - Welsch-last work not fast but visually appealing, exotics value, style could help
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Rail Trip (10-1) - seems to be a little better on Syn, but a good trip could put him in mix, value
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Fed Biz (6-1)
B - #7 Emcee (5/2)
C - #6 Shackleford (2-1)
D - #3 Jersey Town (4-1)
Race Notes-
The 2 turns makes this mile interesting. Most of these east coast horses run 1 mile around 1 turn and some of these have never been 2 turns. Shackleford has won a G1 classic around 2 turns which is appealing, but still not on his best recently. Mike Welsch said he seems to working better than better. Fed Biz can stalk and win. Welsch said he really left a favorable impression in work. Baffert usually has them ready. Emcee has never been 2 turns, but owns some great beyers at 7f. How will the speed affect him is the question. Satish said "unload on him". Jersey Town usually brings his A game, but not sure it will be good enough here. Still a speed melt down could put him on the wire first.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta
$1 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/5,7,6,3 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,6/5,7,6/4,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7,6/4,3,1/5,7,6 = $9
Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint G1
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1) - Welsch loved her work, will have to over come other speed, but seems ready, value - Third
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - Drawn outside and should sit the right trip, has won on course, good work, right style - Second
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1) - Interesting on cut back, Welsch-great gallop, was dragging rider, right style
D - #1 California Flag (6-1) - Loves this downhill course, tough post, Welsch-looks good, hasn't lost much
E - #4 Tale of a Champion (30-1) - Not crazy about post, Welsch-worked well and galloped out nicely
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9 Bridgetown (9/2) - may want to use in Exacta and Trifecta
#2 Camp Victory (10-1) - offers value and style should help with all the speed
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #7 Reenesgotzip (8-1)
B - #13 Unbridled's Note (5-1)
C - #10 Corporate Jungle (6-1)
D - #1 California Flag (6-1)
Race Notes-
Lots of speed in here and a collapse is entirely possible, still if Reenesgotzip can clear she seems ready. Like Unbridled's Note and Corporate Jungle coming from just off the pace. If you hit in the exotics, if figures to pay.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $24
Trifecta & Exacta Combo
$0.50 - 7,13,10,1/7,13,10,1,4/7,13,10,1,4,9,2 = $40
$1 - 7,13,10,1/9,2 = $8
Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile G1
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2) - Should get a good position, has been 2 turns, like that he has won at SA
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1) - Going for the Baffert Exacta, owns a win at SA, working well
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1) - Working great, but fear shipping will hurt chances, could very well win - Winner
D - #7 Capo Bastone (15-1) - Seems to be working ok, offers value - Third
E - #6 Dynamic Sky (12-1) - Nearly won a G1 at Kee last out, offers value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#8 Fortify (9/2) - may slide into exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Power Broker (5/2)
B - #1 Title Contender (6-1)
C - #4 Shanghai Bobby (2-1)
Race Notes-
Top 3 seem much the best and I wouldn't look to far past them for winner. May be able to hook them up with some value horses in exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$1 - 9,1,4/7,6,8 - $9
Trifecta
$2 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/9,1,4 = $12
$0.50 - 9,1,4/9,1,4/7,6,8 = $9
$0.50 - 9,1,4/7,6,8/9,1,4 = $9
Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Turf G1
A - #5 Shareta (7/2) - Has impressed Welsch in works, like the recent G1 wins, drawn better than SNA
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1) - Seems to be in great form, Welsch-couldn't be doing better, will need trip - Second
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2) - Won this last year, serious contender - Third
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1) - Good race last out at SA, should move fwd, looked good galloping, post concern
E - #11 Slim Shady (10-1) - Has run well at longer distance at SA, some value
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#4 Treasure Beach (12-1) - could very well mix up exotics
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Shareta (7/2)
B - #1 Point of Entry (3-1)
C - #3 St Nicholas Abbey (7/2)
D - #12 Trailblazer (6-1)
Race Notes-
I think the Euro's and Point of Entry will own this race. All others are running to fill out the exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$2 - 5,1,3/5,1,3 = $12
$1 - 5,1,3/12,11,4 = $9
Trifecta
$1 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/5,1,3,12 = $12
$0.50 - 5,1,3/12/5,1,3 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/5,1,3/11,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,1,3/11,4/5,1,3 = $6
Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Sprint G1
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1) - Good post, seems to be working ok, if can clear field could go all the way - Winner $29.40
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1) - Planning on going to lead, off layoff but works suggest Baffert has him ready
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1) - Welsch-bounced back with good work, blow out looked good
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1) - Ran well last out, working well
E - #4 Coil (5-1) - Not sure he can win, but always seems to be among the contenders turning for home.
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 The Lumber Guy (6-1) - Good horse, had to split hairs here
#5 Justin Phillip (20-1) - Extreme value if goes off at this price, esp. in exotics
#8 Capital Account (8-1) - Could get into exotics, esp. the Superfecta
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Trinniberg (15-1)
B - #6 Fast Bullet (12-1)
C - #11 Amazombie (4-1)
D - #2 Jimmy Creed (6-1)
Race Notes-
This race is a complete toss up amongst 8 horses, but that could make it a great betting race. Hoping Baffert has Fast Bullet ready and Trinniberg clears the field. Not sure it is worth looking past the top 4 for multi-race wagerings because you'd have to spend a lot of money.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$1 - 9,6,11,2/9,6,11,2,4 = $12
$1 - 6,9,11/7 = $3 - Hit $101.70
Race 11 - Breeder's Cup Turf Mile G1
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1) - This Euro as won or almost won 3 G1 at top tracks, drawn well
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1) - 4 losses came to Frankel, got a little washed out in routine gallop
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5) - Welsch said is working like a monster, dragged rider in SA turf work - Winner
D - #3 Obviously (6-1) - A small chance he could still on front end, but may not fade out of exotics - Third
E - #5 Animal Kingdom (8-1) - Looks great and Motion places horses well, getting 8-1 on a derby winner - Second
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
None
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #9 Moonlight Cloud (6-1)
B - #6 Excelebration (2-1)
C - #2 Wise Dan (9/5)
Race Notes-
Should be within the top 3 and likely the exacta and trifecta. Obviously, has a chance to steal on front end so may want to play to protect that. I didn't include Animal Kingdom in my multi-race horses and I will be kicking myself if for not including a Derby winner if he wins.
Suggested Plays:
Trifecta w/ Exacta Saver
$2 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/9,6,2 = $12
$0.50 - 9,6,2/9,6,2/3,5 = $6
$0.50 = 9,6,2/3,5/9,6,2 = $6
$1 - 3/9,6,2 = $3
Race 12 - Breeder's Cup Classic G1
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5) - Has been working great, loves SA, has won at 1-1/4, very game horse
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1) - Would love to think we could get 8-1 on this horse, working and looks great - Second
C - #4 Fort Larned (5-1) - Was working good in KY, very strong contender but will need very best - Winner
D - #10 Ron the Greek (6-1) - Owns a win at 1-1/4 miles on this track, always comes running
E - #8 Nonios (20-1) - One of two best exotic value in the race, working great, good race at SA last out
Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#1 Pool Play (30-1) - Great value for exotics, 2 for 2 on dirt, both time triple digit beyers
#2 Flat Out (5-1) - Working good, always hangs around, but he scares me
#12 To Honor and Serve (8-1) - Could very well mix up exotics, not sure he is as good as top 2
Multi-Race Horses-
A - #5 Game on Dude (9/5)
B - #11 Mucho Macho Man (8-1)
Race Notes-
If I go past the top 2 horses in the Multi-race picks, then I will need to take 8 horses. I really think Game on Dude will take this and if not Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith should be waiting to take over. Nonios and Pool Play are great values for the Exotics.
Suggested Plays:
Exacta
$4 - 5/11,4 = $10
$4 - 11/5 = $4
$2 - 11/4 = $2
$2 - 5,11/10 =$4
$1 - 5,11/8,1 = $4
Trifecta
$1 - 5/11,4,10,8/11,4,10,8 = $12
$0.50 - 5/11,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
$1 - 11/5/4,10,8 = $3
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/5,4,10,8 = $6
$0.50 - 11/5,4,10,8/1,2,12 = $6
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