Churchill Downs 5-4-2013 - Kentucky Derby Day Card

Updated 10:39am.  Added Pick 3 plays for Races 5,6,7 and 6,7,8.

Card Notes-
This is all the card, except race 4th and 12th races.  A wet track could change things a lot.  I tried to keep that in mind, but I wasn't sure what time the rain is suppose to start, so I still kept things pretty straight forward for a fast track.

My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet.  Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single.  Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets 

Multirace Bets-

Pick 3 - Races 1,2,3
$0.50 - 1,5,6,3 /  1,8 / 6,5,1 = $12

Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$1 - 8 / 1,8 / 2,1,3 = $6 

Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 1,8 / 2,1,3 / 5,3,2,8 = $12 

Woodford/Derby Double
$2 - 9,8 / 3,16 = $8
$1 - 9,8 / 3,16,12 = $6
$1 - 9,8 / 14,8,9,6,5 = $10 
$1 - 3,4 / 3,16 = $4 


Race 1 - 6f OC - Action
 A - #Apropos (8/5) - could jump out to an early lead, likes Cd and last out beyer is good
B - #5 Jan's Perfect Star (8-1) - worked well and has some sneaky speed that can hold
C - #6 Honey Hues (6-1) - good early speed
D - #3 Glamour Puss (2-1) - may sit just off speed
E - #2 Five Star Momma (4-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
 1,5,6,3

Race Notes-


Suggested Plays:



Race 2 - 7f OC - Play
A - #1 River Rocks (3-1) - speed cutting back to 7f
B - #8 Slan Abhaile (5/2) - best beyer was earned on lead, working good, logical
C - #2 Gombey Dancer (7/2) - working well, should fire
D - #4 Cone of Light (6-1)
E - #3 Nubin Ridge (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
1,8,2

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays: 
$5 Win #1 = $5
$1 - 8,2/1




Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles TURF OC - Play
A - #6 Screenplay (3-1) - with lack of speed, he could steal on the lead, runs well at this distance
B - #5 The Pizza Man (3-1) - 6 for 6 at this distance on the turf, pace would help
C - #1 Old Time Hockey (5/2) - should be closing at the finish
D - #4 Under Control (6-1)
E - #3 Atigun (4-1) - is interesting in here, not sure what to make of him, may want to throw in a Tri or Ex.  And watch him if this moves to the dirt.

Multi-Race Horses-
6,5,1

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays: 
$0.50 - 6,5 / 6,5,2 / 6,5,2,4,7,3 = $8
$0.50 - 6,5 / 4,7,3 / 6,5,2 = $6



Race 5 - 1-1/16 miles OC - Play
A - #8 Code West (7/5) - is working well, should best this, but at a short price
B - #12 Hard Aces (12-1)
C - #10 Ghost Hunter (6-1)
D - #2 Balance of Power (10-1)
E - #3 Perfect Title (6-1)

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
 #9 Twin Engine (12-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
 8

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays: 
$0.50 - 8 / 12,10,2,3 /12,10,2,3,9 = $12.50



Race 6 - 5f TURF Turf Sprint - Play 
A - #1 Southern Dude (10-1) - hoping can get to the lead before the rest realize what is happening
B - #8 Icon Ike (3-1) - may be the best in here, some pace would help chance
C - #7 Berlino Di Tiger (15-1) - should be close to lead, likes this distance
D - #2 Havelock (7/2) - 50% win at this distance on the turf
E - #6 Chamberlain Bridge (4-1) - old timer always closes late

Multi-Race Horses-
1,8

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays: 
$2 - 1,8 / 1,8 = $4
$1 - 1,8 / 7,2,6 = $6



Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff  G1 - Play 
A - #2 Rumor (5/2) - should be up close, hoping her speed can carry to wire
B - #1 Jamaican Smoke (5-1) - should be on or near the lead, lot of gate speed
C - #3 Same Cross (8-1) - may pick up the pieces if the speed fails
D - #6 Aubby K (7/2) - speedy horse, but 1st out in 2013
E - #9 Holiday Soiree (12-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
2,1,3

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:

$1 - 2,1 / 2,1,3,6,9 = $8



Race 8 - 1 mile TURF Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Action 
A - #5 Hungry Island (4-1) - can get in done on an off turf course, mixed it up with Winter Memories who was a good turf horse
B - #3 Daisy Devine (3-1) - good horse, but may have to deal with several other speeds
C - #2 Channel Lady (12-1) - can close, love the price
D - #8 Marketing Mix (5/2) - coming off the layoff, but best could get these
E - #7 Karlovy Vary (12-1) - speedy horse that could hang on in the exotics

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) - 1st out in 2013, but could be in exotics

Multi-Race Horses- 
5,3,2,8

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:




Race 9 - 7f The Churchill Downs G2 - Action+
A - #9 Dulaunay (2-1) - if runs to form, will be hard to deny
B - #5 Unbridled's Note (5-1) - fits here, race sets up for
C - #6 Pass the Dice (12-1) - another one that fits at a price, exotics booster
D - #4 Handsome Mike (12-1) - not sure he is good enough to win, but should sit a decent trip
E - #8 Trinniberg (8/5) - love this horse when he is on his game, but don't like here with just returning from Dubai.

Multi-Race Horses-
9,5,6,4

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:




Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Woodford Reserve G1 - Play
A - #9 Point of Entry (7/5) - I think the extra 1/8 of a mile may make a difference
B - #8 Wise Dan (6/5) - Will be hard to handle if he gets the jump on Point of Entry
C - #3 Optimizer (20-1) - Like him in the exotics at a price
D - #4 Silver Max (8-1) - I think this may be the only contender with an upset chance on the lead
E - #Swift Warrior (20-1) - Should get a good trip close to the pace, value

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
 #2 Slim Shady (12-1) - could round out the exotics

Multi-Race Horses-
A- 9,8
B - 4

Race Notes-
The only way Point of Entry or Wise Dan get beat is if a horse gets loose on the lead and puts the field to sleep. 

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 3,5,4 = $6
$0.50 - 9,8 / 3,5,4 / 9,8 = $3
$0.50 - 9,8 / 9,8 / 3,5,4,6 = $4



Race 11 - 1-1/4 miles Kentucky Derby G1 - Action
A - #3 Revolutionary (10-1) - I've like this horse since the Withers, he'll need to work a trip, but he doesn't have to come from way out of it as everyone is suggesting.  It would not surprise me to see him sit inside about midpack on the second flight of horses.  He's as game as they come and if he can get some daylight turning for home he could prove tough to hold off.  Also, Mike Welsch has loved the way he is training.

B - #16 Orb (7/2) - Orb has had no issues leading up to the Derby, and drew really good in post 16.  He is probably the most likely winner, but I don't really like the price.  Only 4 post time favorites have won in the last 21 years.  Still he has every reason to prove he is best in here, not the least of which is that he has been working great according to Mike Welsch.

C - #12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1) - Has been out of sight out of mind, but is doing great according to Welsch.  He drew well and is one of an elite crew to have posted a triple digit beyer, and 1 of 2 to have posted 2 triple digit beyers.  Very live at a good price.

D - #14 Verrazano (4-1) - Is the other holder of two triple digit beyers and is undefeated.  Though his Wood Memorial was not great, the one thing I did like was that he dug in when challenged.  If he can get to the lead turning for home, he may be hard to get by.  Distance is a question and I view him and Goldencents the same in here, but put Verrazano on top due to the draw.

E - #8 Goldencents (5-1) - Owns the best beyer in a last prep race coming into the Derby.  Will have to contend with some other speeds in here and distance could be a question.  Still, he didn't look like he was throwing in the towel at the end of the Santa Anita Derby. 

Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#9  Overanalyze (15-1) - I like the way he drew off from the field in the Arkansas Derby, though it was slow, he did come from just off the pace and pulled away from the field.  Training well and is live at a price.

#6 Mylute (15-1) - If you like Revolutionary, then you have to like Mylute.  Training well and figures to move up on a wet track.  Even if he doesn't win, he's another one who could add value in the exotics.

#5 Normandy Invasion (12-1) - Seems to have lost his buzz after the Wood Memorial, but seems to be on his toes.  Will be coming late that is for sure.

#18 Frac Daddy (50-1) - Is working great and way under the radar, not sure he can win, but would love him in the exotics at 50-1!

#10 Palace Malice (20-1) - Another one of Todd Pletcher's 15,000 horses in this years Kentucky Derby.  Again, I'm not sure he is good enough to win, but love his price in the exotics.


Multi-Race Horses-
A - 3,16,12
B - 14,8,9,6
C - 5,18,10

Race Notes-
There are some really good prices in here that could hit the board in the exotics.  Remember that the post time favorite has only won once in the last 21 derbys and was out of the Exacta in 14 of the last 21.

Suggested Plays:
Exacta - if the 3, 16 or 12 run first or second all three exacta's hit, then spreads for value.
$1 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8,9 = $15
$1 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5,18 = $24
$1 - 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5 / 3,16,12 = $21

Trifecta + Exacta Saver
$0.50 - 3,16,12 / 3,16,12,14,8 / 3,16,12,14,8,9,6,5,18,10 = $48
$1 - 3,16,12 / 9,6,5,18,10 - $15