Friday, May 1, 2015

5/1 Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Races

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Pre Scratches.

Race Rating System-

I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.



Race 6 - 1-1/16mi Edgewood Stks TURF G3 - Play
A - #1 Quality Rocks (3-1) - Has the best closing fractions of any horse in the field.  Beat a next out winner in her last race while running a career best speed figure.
B - #4 My Year Is a Day (5/2) - Filly makes her debut in the US and it is her first race in 2015.  She ran some good winning races in France and you can't complain that she is trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Velazquez.
C - #5 Lady Zuzu (15-1) - Her pace numbers like decent enough to run in the exotics.  I'm not sure she can win, but definite exotics use.
D - #6 Feathered (4-1) - Has never run on the turf, but you have to respect that Pletcher has placed her here.  Exotics use.
E - #7 Flying Tipat (30-1) - Has closed well on the turf, but she has had two tries at this distance and never hit the exacta.

Multi-Race Horses:  1,4
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 1,4 / 1,4 = $4
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4,5,6,7 = $8



Race 7 - 1-1/16 mi La Troienne G1 - Action
A - #5 Sheer Drama (3-1) - Beat a next out winner in her last race, the Grade 2 Royal Delta.  And she ran a career best speed figure.
B - #2 My Miss Sophia (7/2) - She could very well be the lone speed in here, but this is her first race in 2015 after she regressed at the end of 2014.  I'm not sure she will rebound here to win, but she could be the lone speed in the race.  She's a huge question mark.
C - #7 Gold Medal Dancer (9/2) - She's won over this track and should be able to get good position early.  Beat Untapable two back in the Azeri at Oaklawn, but the champion was not herself that day and she turned it around to beat this one in the Apple Blossom. 
D - #3 Sweet Whiskey (5-1) - Exotics use.
E - #4 America (10-1) -  Exotics use.

Multi-Race Horses:  5,2,7,3
Suggest Plays:




Race 8 - 1-1/16mi Alysheba G2 - Play
A - #2 Protonico (7/5) - He could very well grab the early lead and talk the field gate to wire.  Have to respect.
B - #3 Neck 'n Neck (10-1) - He loves Cd and his 4 for 10 at this distance.  Like the price.
C - #7 Honor Code (8/5) - Some pace will help as he has come from off the pace in his last two start.
D - #6 Midnight Cello (15-1) - Exotics use.
E - #8 Call Me George (15-1) - Exotics booster.

Multi-Race Horses:  2,3,7
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 2,3,7 / 2,3,7 = $12
$1 - 2 / 3,7,6,8 = $4



Race 9 - 5f Turf Sprint G3 TURF - Action
A - #3 Heitai (4-1) - Will be looking for him to take them gate to wire.  Is 4 for 4 at this distance.
B - #8 Good Deed (4-1) - His closing fractions have been good on the turf and he's 4 out of 6.
C - #2 Channel Marker (12-1) - Like his closing fraction last out while being beat only 1/2 a length.
D - #10 Something Extra (3-1) - Won the Shakertown last out and his turf numbers have been good.
E - #11 Power Alert (5-1) - Not without a chance, closes well.

Multi-Race Horses:   3,8,2,11
Suggest Plays:




Race 10 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action+
A - #8 Enchanting Lady (4-1) - Ran well while pressing the pace last out.  Looking for a repeat effort.
B - #1 Callback (3-1) - Is working well and is a G1 winner.
C - #12 Taylor S (4-1) - Is a speed horse in a race with a lot of speed.  Exotics use.
D - #7 Lavender Chrissie (12-1) - Is moving in the right direction and owns a win over this track at at this distance.
E - #3 Ekati's Phaeton (6-1) - Another speed horse, but I respect the jockey and trainer and she beat the Gulfstream Park Oaks 2 back.

Multi-Race Horses:   8,1,12
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 8 / 1,12,7,3,11 = $10
$1 - 1,12,7,3 / 8 = $4



Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Kentucky Oaks G1 - Action+
A - #7 Lovely Maria (5-1) - Ran a nice Par Rating when she won the Ashland last out and I like her recent workout.
B - #8 I'm a Chatterbox (4-1) - Will either sit just off the pace or go to the lead, but the post should help her get a good position.  Is 4 for 6 lifetime.
C - #5  Condo Commando (4-1) - May very well go to the lead and play catch me if you can, plus she has already won at this distance.  Legitimate threat.
D - #14 Puca (15-1) - Good exotics price boost.  She's been working well.  Price is right.
E - #10 Oceanwave (30-1) - If she can hit the board she'll be an exotics bomb, but her race last out was really good and she was moving the best of any horse in the field at the wire.  Should like the added 1/16.

Multi-Race Horses:  7,8,5
Suggest Plays:

I think this race has the potential to really pay in the exotics.
$1 - 7,8,5 / 7,8,5 = $12
$1 - 7,8,5 / 7,8,5,14,10 = $12
$1 - 14,10,12,6 / 7,8,5 = $12 

Oaks/Derby Double
Looking to added some value by using 3 tickets.
$1 - 7,8,5,14,10,6,12 / 18 = $7
$1 - 7,8,5,12 / 18,3,10,8,19,2 = $24
$1 - 7,8,5 / 18,3,10,8 = $12




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