5/2 Churchill Downs - Kentucky Derby Day Stakes Races

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Updated 11:54am EST.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 

NOTE:  Usually I try to try to type something about each horse, but due to time constraints today I am just commenting on my top selections.


Race 5 - 1mi Pat Day Mile G3 - Play
A - #2 Gimme Da Lute (7/2) - I really like the workout pattern with the nice 5f work followed by  the longer 7f work.  He's 2 for 3 and beat a next out winner last in his last race.
B - #6 Competitive Edge (6/5) - He's moving in the right direction and you can't deny his connections or his win margins.  But those wins have come against much lesser competition.  He's working well and is a definite contender.
C - #5 Lord Nelson (3-1)
D - #4 Hillbilly Royalty (8-1)
E - #3 The Truth or Else (15-1)

Multi-Race Horses:  2,6,5
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,6,5 / 2,6,5 = $12



Race 6 - 1-1/16 mile American Turf G2 - Play
A - #6 A Lot (9/2) - Is improving, 50% on the turf and he ran a really fast closing fraction in his last race.
B - #1 Luck of the Kitten (7/2) - Always finishes well, but he is a speed horse in a race with some other speed.
C - #14 World Approval (15-1)
D - #11 Divisidero (20-1)
E - #8 Conquest Typhoon (5-1)

Multi-Race Horses:  6,1,14
Suggest Plays:
$10 Win #6 = $10
$5 Exacta 1 / 6 = $5



Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #8 Judy the Beauty (6/5) - If she run anything close to her past form she'll handle these with ease.  But we haven't seen her since the BC FM Sprint.  Like that Smith is back on her.
B - #3 Dame Dorothy (9/2) - I think this is the horse to beat only if Judy the Beauty does not run back to her good form.
C - #1 Sweet Reason (5-1)
D - #6 Moonlit Stroll (20-1) - Exotics boost.
E - #2 Thank You Marylou (10-1)

Multi-Race Horses:   8,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,3 / 8,3 = $4
$1 - 8,3 / 8,3,6,5 = $6



Race 8 - 1mi Churchill Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Action+
A - #5 Coffee Clique (3-1) - Will try to repeat here.  Is a G1 and G2 winner and he closes as good as anyone on the turf.  Excellent shot.
B - #8 Sandiva (7/2) - Another horse that closes well on the turf.  I expect to see her in the mix late.
C - #4 Lady Lara (7/2) - Another good turf closer that figures to be in the mix late.
D - #11 Water Hole (12-1) - US debut.  Big question mark.
E - #3 Tepin (15-1)

Multi-Race Horses:   5,8,4
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,8,4 / 5,8,4,11 = $9



Race 9 - 7f Churchill Downs G2 - Play
A - #5 Pants On Fire (5-1) - I think this race sets up for him with all the speed.  He's run the numbers to win if the speed comes back. 
B - #2 Bayern (Even) - May put the field away if he is in top form.  Technically, he's won at CD, but was dq'd to 2nd place.  When he gets an easy lead he is nearly impossible to catch, but I don't think that will be the case here.
C - #4 Private Zone (2-1)
D - #6 Gentlemen's Bet (10-1)
E - #1 C. Zee (15-1)

Multi-Race Horses:  5,2
Suggest Plays:
$5 Win #5 = $5
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2,4,6 = $12



Race 11 - 1-1/8 mile Woodford Reserve Turf Classic G1 - Action+
A - #12 Grand Arch (8-1) - Is always in the mix with several of these.  He can close well and was within a length of Wise Dan in the 2014 Shadwell Turf Mile.
B - #2 Sky Captain (15-1) - Will need a step forward to win here, but he can close well and his last workout suggest he is ready.
C - #5 Finnegans Wake (9/2) - Seems to be in top form.
D - #9 Seek Again (4-1) - 2015 debut.  Nearly won this race last year against Wise Dan.
E - #7 Jack Milton (7-1) - Is a G1 winner and has won over this turf course.

Multi-Race Horses:  12,2,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 12,2,5 / 12,2,5,9,7 = $12
$1 - 12,2,5,9,7 / 12,2,5 = $12



Race 11 - 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby G1 - Action+
A - #18 American Pharoah (5-2) - I hate to say that I am going to pick the favorite in back to back years in the Ky Derby, but I just can find anything to knock him on. The clockers have loved him, he's won 3 Grade won races, sired by a Ky Derby runner up, his stride is beautiful and seem effortless and he drilled the Arkansas Derby field by 8 lengths with his ears pricked after running some solid fractions. Not much value in a race that has had 9 winners that were 10-1 or higher in the last 21 years. Win selection, definite exotics key horse.
B - #3 Materiality (12-1) - A move forward off that slow and deep Florida Derby track could set him up for victory. Not crazy about the post, but he has some gate speed which will help him. He's sort of an unknown as he raced in only 1 Ky Derby prep. Like his chances with a good trip. Win candidate, definite exotics use.
C - #10 Firing Line (12-1) - He ran above par in all 3 of Ky Derby prep races, but he was never able to get past Dortmund in 2 of those races. He made the Sunland Derby field look like a bunch of 5K Claimers in his most recent start. I'm giving him a win shot and will definitely use him in my exotics.
D - #8 Dortmund (3-1) - Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, Dortmund has won all six of his races and done very little wrong. Two of those races were Grade 1 wins, which included the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent race. In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Dortmund lost the lead and looked beaten in the stretch by Firing Line, but he fought back to edge him at the wire for the win. He won the San Felipe by two lengths after being challenged by Bolo. In the Santa Anita Derby, he went straight to the lead and put all challengers away turning for home. Good win chance, definite exotics use.
E - #19 Upstart (15-1) - Couldn't quite get past Materiality in the Florida Derby. But, I think the post position will help him.  I think he is a horse that will be in the mix at the end. He's been in the Trifecta in all 4 of his Ky Derby prep races and the clockers have been impressed with the way he is working. Definite exotics use, with a very small win chance under the right circumstances.

Horses to Consider for Underneath in Exotics:
#2 Carpe Diem (8-1) - The post is bad for him, but he is 4 for 5 including two Grade 1 wins in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Blue Grass Stakes. Two races back in the Tampa Bay Derby he stalked the pace, took over the lead coming into the stretch and won easily. He earned a 103 par rating in that race. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he used that same running style and easily put away Kentucky Derby contenders Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho to win by three lengths. He is sired by Giant’s Causeway, who was runner up in the 2000 Breeder’s Cup Classic and winner of a Group 1 race in Europe. I like him and he's done little wrong other than act up prerace a few times. Win shot with really good trip, definite exotics use.
#6 Mubtaahij (20-1) - He's a big unknown since all of his recent races have been in Dubai. His UAE Derby win was nice looking, but no horse from the UAE Derby has finished in the Superfecta in the last 21 years. Maybe he is the horse from the UAE that will finally break through, but against this field he's going to have to be a great one to pull it off. I do give him a solid chance to hit the board. Definite exotics use.
#12 International Star (20-1) - I really liked this horse during the Ky Derby prep season as he always tries hard. I think he has the right style to come plodding along at the end of the Derby and hit the exotics at a nice price. With some of the others in here, I think it is getting lost in the mix that he has won 4 out of his 5 Ky Derby prep races. I think he'll need a pace meltdown to win and I'm not sure that is going to happen, but I will definite use him in my exotic plays.
#5 Danzig Moon (30-1) - He determinedly chased Carpe Diem during the stretch run in the Blue Grass. I've heard really good things about how he is working. I think he is a horse that can hit the board at a really large price and blow up the exotics. Definite exotics use.
#20 Far Right (30-1) - Not much to knock him on other than the fact that American Pharoah drilled him by 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. I think he is a horse that could plod his way into the exotics in the stretch. Plus, I always have to respect Mike Smith. Bottom end exotics use.
#15 Frosted (15-1) - Would have like to have seen a better time in the Wood Memorial, but when you run the opening 3/4 miles in 1:13.41 you can only finish so fast in the stretch. And, he still won the race with a good run in the stretch. I wouldn't talk anyone off of him that likes him, but I am going to use him only on the bottom end of my exotics.

Multi-Race Horses:  18,3,10,8,19
Suggest Plays:
Trifecta Play
$0.50 - 18 / 3,10,8,19 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $18.00
$0.50 - 3,10,8,19 / 18 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $18.00
$0.50 - 3,10,8,19 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5 / 18 = $14.00
$0.50 - 18 / 2,6,12,5,20,15 / 3,10,8,19  = $12.00

Exacta Play
$1 - 18,3,10,8,19,2 / 18,3,10,8,19,2 = $30
$1 - 18 / 3,10,8,19,2,6,12,5,20,15 = $10
$2 - 18 / 3,10,8,19,2 = $10