Laurel Park 3-15-2013 - Full Card

Laurel Park 3-15-2013

Updated for Scratches 11:50am.

Card Notes-
I'm not crazy about this card.  None of the Pick 3's really lined up well.  I wish Laurel rolled them a little more throughout the card.  The Daily Double play in races 1 & 2 is likely one of the best plays are the card.  I've listed two Pick 3 tickets, they are a little more pricey than I like to play, but they do offer some value.  Though I'm not sure if I am actually going to play them, we'll see who scratches first and I'll update Friday morning.  Also, there are a few decent Trifecta bets throughout the card where I give the option to hit multiple times, esp. with the fields being so short.  Enjoy!


My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet.  Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single.  Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets

If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.

Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 1,2
$1 - 2,5 / 5 = $2
$1 - 2,5 / 5,7 = $4
$1 - 2,5,7 / 5,7 = $6

Pick 3 - Races 3,4,5
$0.50 - 5,2 / 7,4 / 1,3 = $4
$0.50 - 5,2 / 7,4 / 1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2,1,3 / 7 / 1,3,4 = $6
$0.50 - 5,2,1,3 / 7,4,3 / 1 = $6

Pick 3 - Races 4,5,6
Gives coverage to the  #9 and #7 in the 5th race.
$0.50 - 7,4 / 1,3 / 7,5 = $4
$0.50 - 7 / 1,3,4,9,7 / 7,5,6 = $7.50
$0.50 - 3,4 / 1,3,4 / 7,5,6 = $9        



Race 1 - 6f Maiden - Action
A - #2 Lady Lark (5-1) - Smith can have them ready to fire first time out.  Taking a shot here against others.
B - #5 Perfect Balance (6/5) - showed change of form in last out, class dropping, but not a cinch
C - #7 Pay the Lady (7-1) - class drop, good beyers numbers, possible win candidate
D - #3 Finally Free (5-1) - don't think can win, but exotics chance
E - #1 Vivaco (6-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
2,5,7

Race Notes-
In Maiden races where it seems like it is a race of perpetual losers, I like to a first time starter.  And, Hamilton Smith hits are 21% with firsters. 

Suggested Plays:


Race 2 - 6f Claiming - Play
A - #5 Sasta go Lucky (7/5) - Aqu shipper, nice class drop, 4 of 11 at distance, lowest level of career
B - #7 Ms Diller (8/5) - Gp shipper, can show speed, lone dirt start was not good, but was a while back
C - #4 Hatta (10-1) - slight drop in class, is 1 for 1 at distance, may sit right trip for exotics, value
D - #3 Red Hot Jazz (6-1) - not sure about last out, 34% at distance, dropping from open company, exotics
E - #1 In Dad's Wallet (12-1) - dropping from open company, style my hurt from post 1, exotics, value

Multi-Race Horses-
5,7

Race Notes-
The race is likely to go to the 5 or 7.  Those horses shipping in from classier tracks are in the money a larger percentage of the time.  But the 7 didn't run well in her only dirt start, but it was on the Aqu inner track, so I'm will to forgive that one.  There may actually be some value in the Trifecta, esp. if the 5 and 7 don't run first and second.

Suggested Plays:
Trifecta -  gives you the ability to hit up to 3 times if your top selections are correct or almost correct
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7 / 4,3,1 = $3
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4 = $2
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4,3,1 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7 / 4,3,1 / 5,4,7 = $5


Race 3 - 1-1/16 miles Claiming - Action
A - #5 Shanfield (5/2) - 2 for 2 at Lrl, 33% at distance, may sit good trip, but a very loose favorite
B - #2 Sweet N Nutty (7/2) - wins at this level, class drop, could very well take this
C - #1 Social Statement (3-1) - always in money at distance, up in class, but a definite contender
D - #3 Lindyhop (3-1) - another contender who may get the right trip
E - #6 Vasilea (6-1) -  up in class, but somethings to like for exotics use

Multi-Race Horses-
5,2,1,3

Race Notes-
Race seems a wide open, esp. among my top 4.  Feel like I need to take them all in the exotics.  Possibly a good exacta play with their being so many options, but I'll probably lay out of this one.

Suggested Plays:


Race 4 - 1 mile Starter Allowance - Play
A - #7 St John's Gospel (9/5) - drops from winning run at open claiming that was above Alw condition, 45% at Lrl, 2 or 3 at distance, deserving favorite
B - #4 Boom de Ya Da (9/2) - has won at this level, style and post should fit, beyers line up with others
C - #3 No Inflation (5-1) - post some beyers that could win this, but hasn't won at this level, contender
D - #2 Conflicting Report (6-1) - seems a cut below for win candidate, but definite exotics use
E - #1 Siegfried (4-1) - 10 of 14 in money at Lrl, a definite exotics change, will be closing late

Multi-Race Horses-
7,4,3

Race Notes-
The #7 is very likely here, still there are a few others who could contest for win candidate.  Will lean on 7 in plays, but with some backups.  Deciding to let #3 beat me in intrarace bets, but will be using in multirace bets.

Suggested Plays:
Trifecta - gives you ability to hit multiple times and places more weight on the #7 winning
$1 - 7 / 4,3 / 4,3,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3 = $2
$0.50 - 7,4 / 7,4,3 / 7,4,3,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,4 / 3,2,1 / 7,4,3 = $5


Race 5 - 5-1/2f Claiming -  Action
A - #1 She's Off the Hook (5/2) - ships in from Prx, has shown a recent change in running style, loose favorite
B - #3 Respect the Flag (3-1) - has beat better, Vasquez 21% first claim
C - #4 No More Fives (20-1) - has beat better, horse wins, 50% win at distance, screams exotic value
D - #9 Set to Smoke (12-1) - dropping in class, but from Ct doesn't help my confidence, exotics value
E - #7 Oxford Lass (9/2) - 6 of 7 in money at distance, good beyers, blinkers should help

Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,4

Race Notes-
Race seems a little wide open for intrarace plays, but 20-1 on the #3 may be irresistible to see if I can hookup in Exacta.  Also, I may go a little deeper here in the multirace bets depending on who scratches.

Suggested Plays:


Race 6 - 5-1/2f Claiming - Action
A - #7 Unsighted (5/2) - that 70 beyer jumps out, but that was earned on the lead, I'd like a lot more if she wasn't shipping from Ct, but she did mop up there, class drop, but can throw a clunker here and there, beatable.
B - #5 Secret Score (8-1) - Prx shipping coming from starter allowance conditions, should get good trip
C - #6 Southside Molly (15-1) - off for a while with little works to show, but top jock suggest exotics use
D - #2 Grand Lely Drive (7/2) - speed, but shipping from Ct, though did win there, possible
E - #1 Go Money Go (20-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
7,5,6

Race Notes-
Lots of options in here.  There maybe some value in the Exacta if your selections are right, but this maybe another I'll try to get through in multirace bets.

Suggested Plays:


Race 7 - 6f Optional Claiming - Play
A - #7 Regal Revenge (9/5) - beyer numbers top rest and suggest good form, hard to deny if runs best
B - #3 Pass You Bye Bye (5/2) - drew off in N1X company while 3 wide, 4 of 5 in money at Lrl
C - #8 My Charming Clyde (5-1) - 1st Claim for Ness with Russell riding has an ML of 5-1.  Wow!
D - #2 Warrior of the roses (6-1) - trainer can fire them fresh off layoff, speed should help, exotics
E - #1 Mystical Terp (10-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
7,3,8

Race Notes-
#7 seems much the best, but Ness of the claim is dangerous and the #3 offers somethings to like.  Value may come in trifecta by hoping to catch a longer price in one of the legs.

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8 / 7,3 = $2 - saver exacta
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,8 / 7,3,8 = $3
$0.50 - 7,3 / 7,3,8 / 7,3,8,2,1 = $6
$0.50 - 7,3 / 8,2,1 / 7,3,8 = $5


Race 8 - 6f Optional Claiming - Action
A - #1 Dance to Bristol (6/5) - moving forward, class drop, will have to work out a trip, deserving favorite
B - #3 Enchante (7/2) - does fire fresh, ships in from Aqu, drop some in class
C - #6 Exclusive Warrior (4-1) - 5 or 7 in money at Laurel, 6 of 9 at distance, not sure this race will setup for style
D - #2 Donnatale (8-1) - likely candidate to wire field, but just seems a cut below, hoping others can run down
E - #5 Dixie Jackpot (15-1) - 4 or 7 at distance, class drop, speed may hold into exotics

Multi-Race Horses-
1,3,6

Race Notes-
If Dance to Bristol runs back or moves forward he should win this race with ease, however, any regression makes him beatable.  That is why I used two other horses in the multi's.  Basing a small trifecta play on Dance to Bristol being the best in here.  Prices will be too short in here to make a play with the race scratching down to 4 horses.

Suggested Plays:



Race 9 - Claiming - Action
A - #2 Singing My Way (4-1) - may very well wire this field with lead
B - #7 Rock N Heart (3-1) - good beyers here, 22% with 1st time Trnr, stands to get a good trip
C - #6 Tennis Racket (7/2) - trouble last out, gets top jock, win potential
D - #8 One French Kiss (8-1) - exotics
E - #4 Empedrado (4-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
2,7,6

Race Notes-
If Singing My Way doesn't wire field, the race gets a little wide open from there, however, I feel with good trips #7 & #6 would be best.

Suggested Plays: