Friday, March 29, 2013

Fair Grounds 3-30-2013 - Races 3-11

Updated for Scratches 12:21pm.

Card Notes-
I feel like this card could end up being a little chalky.  There were several races where I just couldn't find a good reason to go against the favorite.

My Race Rating System- 
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet.  Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single.  Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets 


Multirace Bets-
Daily Double - Races 3,4
$1 - 4 / 10 = $1
$1 - 4,1 / 10,8 = $4
$1 - 4,1 / 6 = $2  

Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 11,10 / 8,6 / 5,7 = $4
$0.50 - 11,10,1 / 8 / 5,7,3 = $4.50
$0.50 - 11,10,1 / 8,6,9 / 5 = $4.50

Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$0.50 - 8,6 / 5 / 8 = $1
$0.50 - 8,6 / 5,7 / 8,7 = $4
$0.50 - 8,6,9 / 5 / 8,7,2 = $4.50
$0.50 - 8,6,8 / 5,7,4 / 8 = $4.50

Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8,7 / 3,10 = $4
$0.50 - 5 / 8 / 3,10,7,8,4 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 8,7,2 / 3,10,7,8 = $6
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8 / 3,10,7,8 = $4

Pick 3 - Races 8,9,10
$0.50 - 8,7 / 3,10 / 5,1 = $4
$0.50 - 8 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $6
$0.50 - 7,2 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1 = $8
$0.50 - 8 / 4 / 5,1 = $1

Pick 4 - Races 7,8,9,10
$0.50 - 5,7 / 8,7 / 3,10 / 5,1 = $8
$0.50 - 5 / 8 / 3,10,7,8,4 / 5,1 = $5
$0.50 - 5 / 8,7,2 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $12
$0.50 - 5,7,4 / 8 / 3,10,7,8 / 5,1,2 = $12               



Race 3 - 1-1/16 mile Costa Rising Stakes - Play
A - #4 Heavy on Themister (8/5) - should dominate this field, but am worried about the speed drawn inside of him
B - #1 Populist Politics (5/2) - should be there to pick up pieces if #4 & #3 get caught in a duel, runs well at Fg
C - #
6 Get in Da House (3-1) - another one who seems just a cut below the winner, 20 of 23 in the money
D - #5 Watch My Smoke (12-1) - some value if can get 3rd in Trifecta
E - #2 Lee's Spirit (12-1) - by default

Multi-Race Horses-

 4,1

Race Notes-

Heavy On Themister may very well run these off their feet.  #1 and #6 are most likely if a speed duel ensues between the #4 and #3.

Suggested Plays:

$1 - 4 / 1,6 / 1,6 = $4
$0.50 - 4 / 1,6 / 5,2 = $2



Race 4 - 6f OC - Action
A - #10 Sister City (3-1) - really nice class drop, has run well at Fg and distance, will need to work a good trip
B - #8 Mohijo (7/2) - has posted some decent beyers, does run well at Fg, distance leaves some questions
C - #Tujuacagofast (9/2) - dropping from stakes company, but first out since July 2012, last work good
D - #7 Debbie Ann (8-1) - a huge improvement last out when not dueling, screams value
E - #1 Crypto Good (8-1) - likes Fg and posts some decent beyers, exotics use

Multi-Race Horses-

10,8,6

Race Notes-

I wavered on whether this should be an Action or Play bet.  It just looks like a really good spot for the #10 other than the post.

Suggested Plays:

$2 - 10,8 / 10,8 = $4
$1 - 10,8 / 6,7,1 = $6



Race 5 - 6f OC - Action
A - #11 Herbal Prospector (5/2) - good beyers, has good gate speed, will need to secure a good position
B - #10 Googleado (8-1) - maybe overlooked, working well, this guy may well run them off their feet, value
C - #1 Alaco Castle (5-1) - could move fwd off last effort, 9 of 10 in money at distance, 10 of 11 in money at Fg
D - #4 Easy Jazz (4-1) - may not be as good lately, but still 50% winner at Fg and 5 of 9 at distance
E - #7 Royal Production (8-1) - class dropper who could mix it up here

Multi-Race Horses-
11,10,1

Race Notes-
Race seems a little wide open once you get past the winner.  Decided to just go with 3 horses in the multi's.

Suggested Plays:




Race 6 - 1 mile 70 yds Cresent City Oaks - Play
A - #8 Mucho Mans Gold (9/2) - hoping she can wire the field
B - #
6 Sittin At the Bar (9/5) - dropping in class from dull effort, may not get the pace setup, 2 for 2 at Fg
C - #9 Tensas  Harbor (8-1) - stretching out a bit, but does run well at Fg, exotics
D - #1 Hometown Gossip (10-1) - would bolster exotics
E - #4 Fantacious (12-1)

Multi-Race Horses-

8,6

Race Notes-
I thought there are several in here who could be hurt by the lack of pace.  If #8 doesn't wire field, the hopefully the #3 will be waiting in the wings to take over.  #6 will be over bet on the class drop, but seems very beatable here, especially given the pace scenario.

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 8,6 / 8,6,9 / 8,6,9 = $4.00

$1 - 8,6 / 8,6,9 / 1,4 = $4.00
$0.50 - 8,6 / 1 / 8,6,9 = $2.00 



Race 7 - 1-1/16 miles Fair Ground Oaks G2 - Play
A - #5 Flashy Gray (6/5) - will very likely wire this field, others will all need a step fwd to tackle her
B - #7 Unlimited Budget (9/5) - was game last out, can sit or go, maybe second best here though
C - #4 So Many Ways (6-1) - working good and you can cross out the last out, but still may not be good enough
D - #3 Ante Up Annie (15-1) - I expect her to scratch here, but would offer some Trifecta value
E - #6 Blue Violet (12-1) - could bolster trifecta if she can catch the 3rd leg

Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5

B - 7,4 (to use on a saver ticket)

Race Notes-
I wouldn't try to go against the obvious favorite #5.  Instead, try to use her as a key or in the mutlirace wagers.  Though a saver ticket using the 7,4 wouldn't be a bad idea only if cost allows.

Suggested Plays: 

$1 - 5 / 7,4 / 7,4 = $2
$1 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 5,7,4 = $4
$0.50 - 5,7 / 5,7,4 / 3,6 = $4 



Race 8 - 1-1/8 miles New Orleans Handicap G2 - Play
A - #8 Graydar (2-1) - could wire these again, 2-1 would be value here, seems much the best
B - #7 Mark Valeski (9/2) - should sit a good trip, last out was better than beyer suggest, upset chance
C - #2 Bourbon Courage (7/2) - dropping in class from the Donn, left himself too much to do there, but was game
D - #4 Majestic Harbor (20-1) - may sit close enough to pace to grab a piece of exotics
E - #6 Macho Macho (8-1) - working nicely and would offer some value in exotics

Multi-Race Horses-
A - 8

B - 7,2 (to use on a saver ticket)

Race Notes-
I left out Flat Out from the top 5.  He seems to be a horse who gets better in the fall, so I'm hoping that holds true here and we can get some other value in the trifecta.  But, I may include him on a saver trifecta ticket if cost allows.  Graydar seems much the best to wire this field with Mark Valeski an upset chance.

Suggested Plays:

$1 - 8 / 7,2 / 7,2 = $2
$1 - 8 / 7,2,4 / 7,2,4 =$6
$1 - 7,2 / 8 / 7,2,4 = $4
$0.50 - 8 / 7,2,4 / 6 = $1.50 



Race 9 - 1-1/8 miles Lousiana Derby G2 - Action
A - #3 Revolutionary (3-1) - though he may not have beaten much, I loved the way he was game to get to the wire last out
B - #10 Titletown Five (8-1) - should be on or near the lead, could definitely get a piece, stretching out so questions need to be answered
C - #7 Departing (8-1) - seems to be improving and is working well, 2 for 2 at Fg, shot
D - #8 Code West (9/2) - not crazy about Risen Star horses, but seems to be working well and have to give Baffert respect in Derby preps
E - #2 Palace Malice (5-1) - fits here with a move fwd, but is another Risen Star horse 


Value Add-Ons-
#4 Golden Soul (20-1) - this horse took a big step fwd last out and even a small step would put him in the mix, esp for exotics.  Lots of value.

Multi-Race Horses-
A - 3,10,7,8

B - 4 (value)

Race Notes-
I'm trying to sneak by here in the multi's with my top 4, while grabbing some value if the #10 or #7 get up.  Also, I thought the #4 horse Golden Soul offers a lot of value in the exotics and another big jump fwd would put him in the win mix.

Suggested Plays: 




Race 10 - 1-1/8 miles TURF Mervin H. Muniz Jr Stakes - Play
A - #5 Optimizer (5/2) - found a home on the turf, pace should suit, has not won at G2 level...yet
B - #1 Amira's Prince (3-1) - has done nothing but win since coming from IRE, distance too short?
C - #2 Doubles Partner (5-1) - has run well against some really good horses, the class is there, but tough company here too
D - #8 String King (8-1) - on a good run of being in the money, definite exotics use
E - #9 Bim Bam (10-1) - may have been compromised last out by lack of pace, exotics use for value

Multi-Race Horses-
A - 5,1

B - 2 (saver)

Race Notes-
The top 3 should handle these.  I really like Optimizer has a turf horse, but he'll have to prove it again here.  Amira's Prince stands a huge win chance, but this horse usually runs longer, so the shorter distance is a question.  Doubles Partner has run with some of the best Turf horses in the US, still he might not be able to best the top 2 here.

Suggested Plays: 

$2 - 5,1 / 5,1,2 = $8
$1 - 5,1 / 8,9 = $4
$0.50 - 5,1 / 5,1,2 / 5,1,2,8,9 = $6



Race 11 - 1-1/16 miles Cresent City Derby - Action 
A - #5 Skinny (3-1) - may sit a good trip, likes distance and Fg
B - #8 Hero Force (5/2) - a definite contender, but will need to prove distance
C - #4 Don't Be Mad (8-1) - another contender who will have to prove the distance
D - #6 Hopeful Notion (7/2) - could definitely sit the right trip here, possible winner
E - #7 Unbridled's Score (10-1) - the horse appears to fit, but the trainer is 4% with 430 starts, no confidence

Multi-Race Horses-
5,8,4,6

Race Notes-
There seem to be several in here with win opportunities.  Using in multirace wagers only.

Suggested Plays:
 

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