Keep up with the latest on my selections, changes, trip notes and stats by following me on Twitter @BigDayStats
Follow @BigDayStats
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 12:15pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 1-1/16 mi Clm - Play
A - #6 Romp City (7/5) - let's see, will very likely inherit an easy lead, has the best speed figure, has 2 wins at this distance and trained by Jamie Ness. Is very likely the winner, but will be over bet.
B - #3 Secret Jackpot (8-1) - takes a small class drop from 4UP 16K, style may hamper win chances, Romp City beat in last out, exotics use
C - #4 Stand Proud (8-1) - small class drops from 4UP 16K, but was beat by Romp City in last out, 8 of 11 in money at this distance, exotics use
D - #1 Big Bad Ike (5-1) - style may hurt this guy with lack of pace in the race, but is 8 of 10 in the money at this distance
Multi-Race Horses - 6
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6 / 4 = $3
$2 - 6 / 3,4,1 = $6
Scratch - #2, #5
Race 3 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #3 She Be Bunny (7/5) - has declined in form lately, but is dropping in class and may best these even with the form decline, would like to see her running on the front end, very sketchy favorite
B - #4 Sister Sharon (9/5) - class drops, but is shipping from Ct which doesn't say much, but the drop and speed figures must be respected in this situation
C - #7 Le Sonja (15-1) - another maybe in this race, exotics boost
D - #5 Storm Da Chaser (20-1) - will try for lead, but loves to fade late, exotics boost if can hang on for a piece
E - #2 Midsummer's Eve (15-1) - another exotics candidate
Multi-Race Horses - 3,4,7,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 4 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #2 Sarah's Whisper (5/2) - not much to chose from in this N2L, but maybe she can grab the lead and hold on, decent beyer's against these
B - #7 Hope and Mercy (2-1) - another horse with potential for early speed which can be good in these bottom level claiming races
C - #3 Vivaco (6-1) - fits just looking a speeds figures
D - #5 Elbertini (6-1)
E - #1a Boastful Dancer (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 2,7,3
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 5 - 5f Clm TURF - Action
A - #9 M's Punch (3-1) - 1st out in 2014, but has run decent #'s on the turf, top choice in a field where I don't really like much
B - #3 Smart N Smokin (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, will be coming from off the pace, beyer's fit
C - #5 Katie Malone (10-1) - could boost exotics, has run some decent #'s in the past, but those were not earned while sprinting
D - #6 Gindini (8-1) - No Turf experience, but lands a decent jockey with turf experience
E - #4 Runaway Dame (9/2) - No Turf experience, but breeding suggest she may take to it, maybe
Multi-Race Horses - 9,3,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 6 - 6f Clm - Action+
A - #4 We Found Love (9/5) - class drops with a decent finish against better last out, speed figures fit and has always been in the exacta at this distance, will need to sit close with very little speed in the race
B - #6 Tubal (5-1) - class drops, has good beyers, has a shot
C - #5 Pushin' On (3-1) - always in the trifecta at this distance, exotics shot for sure
D - #7 Ascendancy (7/2)
E - #2 Crow Bar (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 4,6,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 7 - 5f Alw TURF - Play
A - #6 Bowman's Boy (3-1) - has drilled to recent bullet works, takes a nice class drop, like the presence of Russell esp. in turf races, may be able to grab the lead and has good closing figures
B - #7 Star Maneuver (6-1) - the morning line odds would be a steal here, this horse runs excellent closing fractions, but will be coming from slightly off the pace
C - #2 English Minister (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, another horse that will be running late and will need to work out a trip from the inside, note that 82 beyer was not earned while sprinting
D - #3 Sortano (7/2) - has never sprinted on the turf, but has some things to like, wait and see in the win category, but exotics use for sure
E - #8 Make My Saturday (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 6,7
Suggest Plays:
(as always check the exacta payouts and make sure they are worth the cost, if not you'll need to shorten up)
$4 - 6 / 7 = $4
$2 - 7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 6 / 2 = $1
$1 - 6,7 / 2,3,8 = $6
Scratch - #1
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #2 Connemara Coast (5/2) - will be forced to use speed from the 1 hole, but has paired to good figures and gets the services of a smart jockey, definitely a top contender, best shot to beat the favorite
B - #8 Avarice (6/5) - has really good figures, but don't see taking that short of a price, should get good position, good shot, but is vulnerable
C - #7 Thurmont (6-1) - form seems to be improving, will be coming from off the pace which is always tough in sprints, needs some pace
D - #6 Coach Fridge (10-1) - another off the pace horse with decent figures, exotics boost
E - #3 Dream of Scipio (20-1) - like the early speed, but does fade
Multi-Race Horses - 2,8
Suggest Plays:
(check the exacta prices, but I expect the 2 and 8 will be pounded pretty heavily, so we'll need the Trifecta to try to add some value)
$2 - 8 / 2 / 7 = $2
$1 - 2 / 8 / 7 = $1
$1 - 8,2 / 8,2 / 7,6,3 = $6
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7 / 8,2 - $1
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7,6 / 8,2 = $2
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7,6 / 7,6,3 = $4
No comments:
Post a Comment