4-12-2014 - Keeneland - Blue Grass Stakes

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Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 


Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Blue Grass Stakes G1 - Action
A - #8 Dance With Fate (12-1) - Was beaten just a 1/2 length in the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic. He ran a 98 on our par rating scale in the El Camino, which is the highest in 2014 on synthetic of any horse entered in this race. He's got the right running style and should be sitting 3-5 lengths off the pace. I like the way he has steadily improved. Top choice at a nice price. - Winner $14.80
B - #5 Bobby's Kitten (3-1) - Will probably be on the lead and that running style has not done well in the Blue Grass since the switch to synthetic. But some good works over the Keeneland track and his affinity for the turf makes him a top contender.
C - #13 Medal Count (9/2) - Ran a good Beyer on the Keeneland synthetic last out when the race came off the turf. Romans wheels him around just six days later, which can be a successful move. Legitimate contender.
D - #11 Coastline (8-1) - 3rd beaten a head in the Spiral. He's recent work suggest he's still in good form. Some things to like here, exotics use.
E - #9 Big Bazinga (20-1) - Ran above par back in Oct 2013 in Grey Stakes at Woodbine. Was beaten soundly in the Holy Bull, but he is back on his preferred surface today and has turned in a decent work. Big exotics boost if he can hit the board.

Multi-Race Horses - 8,5,13,11,9
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 5,13 = $4 - HIT $127.60
$1 - 8 / 11,9 = $2
$1 - 5,13,11 / 8 = $3
$1 - 5,13,11 / 5,13,11 = $6