4-5-2014 - Aqueduct Races 8-11 - Wood Memorial Day

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Updated 12:30pm.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 

Multi Race Bets- 

$500K Guaranteed Pick 4 - Races 8-11
I decided the ticket had enough value without dividing it up to allow for multiple hits.
$0.50 - 6,8 / 4,3,2 / 8,10,3,11 / 5,4,6 = $36


Race 8 - 7f Bay Shore G3 - Play
A - #6 Favorite Tale (5-1) - great early speed, but will need to carry that against stiffer competition
B - #8 Kobe's Back (2-1) - drawn outside he'll should be in an excellent position to take over if the speed comes back, has won a G2 race
C - #7 The Admiral (3-1) - good beyers, cutting back in distance, will need a step forward to mix it up for the win category
D - #2 Oliver Zip (10-1) - exotics
E - #5 Loki's Vengeance (15-1) - exotics

Multi-Race Horses - 6,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6 / 8,7 = $4
$1 - 6 / 2 = $1
$1 - 8,7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 6,8,7 / 6,8,7 = $6


Race 9 - 1-1/8mi Gazelle G2 - Action
A - #4 My Miss Sophia (9/5) - stretching out and first versus winners, but a move fwd from her last out will be tough to handle here - WIN $3.60
B - #3 Sweet Reason (8/5) - can run so much better than last out, here's hoping for a return of her form
C - #2 Got Lucky (3-1) - another Pletcher trained horse, she ran good in a G2 last year only losing by a neck, another step forward and she looks tough
D - #5 Vero Amore (12-1) - exotics use
E - #6 Bird Maker (8-1) - exotics use

Multi-Race Horses - 4,3,2
Suggest Plays:


Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Wood Memorial G1 - Action
A - #8 Samraat (7/2) - I don't love him here, but I like his post position much better than Uncle Sigh and Social Inclusion, plus we know he can sit and pounce, plus he fits all 3 criteria that the majority of the Wood Memorial winners share
B - #10 Uncle Sigh (5-1) - would have liked him a lot better if he had drawn a little more inside, still he is as game as they come and he'll be running hard
C - #3 Noble Moon (12-1) - fits the same 3 criteria that I mentioned with Samraat, needs a big step forward, but it's possible.  Good exotics boost.
D - #11 Social Inclusion (2-1) - I like the horse but I had to make the choice to be for him or against him and I chose against.  I do not like the outside post for him, plus horses who earn big beyers while racing on a loose lead rarely repeat them when pressured.  And, you can bet the company will be tougher here.  He is trying to beat the fact that in the last 20 years 90% of the Wood Memorial winners have run in a previous Ky Derby prep.  Still if he clears the field and gets the lead...watch out.
E - #7 Schivarelli (15-1) - may sit a good trip under Castellano, has some speed, distance may be a question, exotics boost

Multi-Race Horses - 8,10,3,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8 / 10,3,11 = $3
$1 - 8,10,11 / 8,10,11 = $6


Race 11 - 7f Carter Handicap G1 - Action
A - #5 Strapping Group (4-1) - is a G1 winner with plenty of class and good beyers, lots to like
B - #4 Dad Caps (12-1) - he has a lot of early speed and the price isn't bad in this salty group, love to see him in the exotics - WIN
C - #6 Sahara Sky (2-1) - this Met Mile winner will need to step up from his recent outs, but it is completely possible
D - #2 Clearly Now (5-1) - good beyers, but 1st out in 2014, like the 6f work in 1:11
E - #1 Central Banker (5-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 5,4,6
Suggest Plays:
I usually don't suggest boxing, unless it is used as a saver.  But with so many options the prices figure to be right.  If the Exacta prices look juicy then I would use your top picks in a couple of boxes and then create a couple of plays with an emphasis on your top selections.  This insures you hit multiple times if you are correct and allows you to cash if you are almost right.
$1 - 5 / 4,6,2,1 = $4
$1 - 4,6 / 5,2 = $4
$1 - 5,4,6 / 5,4,6 = $6 - HIT $69.25
$1 - 5,4,2 / 5,4,2 = $6