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Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
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Kentucky Derby Contenders
With all the Kentucky Derby qualifying races in the books, these are my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, along with their points and why I like them. I'll update it again in the next week as we hear more from the clockers.
#1 California Chrome - 150 points - ran a 106 on our par rating scale, which is the 2nd highest in the last 20 years. For comparison, I'll Have Another ran a 104. Like the way he pulled away in the stretch. There appears to be several speed horses headed to the Kentucky Derby, but it doesn't always workout the way it appears on paper. Plus, I think California Chrome can sit a few lengths off the lead and win. Seems to be the best headed to Kentucky. One note, horses that ran above a 100 par rating in the Santa Anita Derby have a high win percentage in the Preakness.
#2 Hoppertunity - 95 points - Even though California Chrome beat him by 5 lengths he still ran slightly above par in the Santa Anita Derby. He was game when he won the Rebel stakes, beating a troubled Tapiture who is a decent horse. He ran above par in that race as well. What I really like about him is he has a good running style for the Kentucky Derby and seems to be one of those horse who keep plodding along and hit the board. With him being beat 5 lengths by California Chrome he may be a little forgotten about, but don't count this guy out.
#3 Danza - 100 points - Got a good trip in the Arkansas Derby, but he drew off nicely for the win. He seems like a horse that might be peaking at the right time. Not sure he can be beat California Chrome or Hoppertunity, but he is definitely an exotics player.
#4 Samraat - 100 points - Has been game in the stretch in both of his last two races and I like that in a horse. Will definitely be included in my exotics and would move up if California Chrome didn't make the field for some reason.
#5 Wild Cat Red - 90 points - This guy just tries hard every single race and I love horses like that. For that reason I had to include him. He's also had two above par efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Looking forward to hearing what the clockers have to say over the next week.
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