Saturday, April 5, 2014

4-5-2014 - Santa Anita Derby Day Races 3,5,6,8,10

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Updated 2:05pm ET.

Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 



Race 3 - 6-1/2f Echo Eddie Stakes - Play
A - #6 Oh Daddy Oh (4-1) - could wire this field, is 2 for 3 at Sa
B - #9 Pray Hard (3-1) - will be poised to pounce if Oh Daddy Oh doesn't wire
C - #3 Well Measured (6-1) - nice works, split Oh Daddy Oh and Pray Hard in last out
D - #2 Whine for Wine (4-1)
E - #8 Life Is a Joy (9/2)

Multi-Race Horses - 6,9
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 6 / 9,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 2,8 = $2
$1 - 9 / 3,6,2 = $3


Race 5 - 1-1/16 Santa Anita Oaks G1 - Play
A - #1 Fashion Plate (5/2) - like the inside post with early speed, is 2 for 2 at Sa and a G1 winner - WIN $6.20
B - #3 Ria Antonia (2-1) - is better than last out showed, like the recent works
C - #5 Arethusa (4-1) - 3rd beaten roughly a length in a G1, will be running late
D - #4 Honey Ride (3-1) - exotics
E - #6 Artemis (6-1) - exotics

Multi-Race Horses - 1,3
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 1,3 / 1,3 = $4 - HIT $15.80
$1 - 1,3 / 5,4,6 = $6


Race 6 - 6-1/2f Evening Jewel Stakes - Action
A - #5 Harlington's Rose (7/2) - could be best here with a good trip, should be sitting just off pace
B - #6 Rovenna (3-1) - good early speed - WIN
C - #8 Cause Ur My Babe (9/2)
D - #4 Chati's On Top (4-1)
E - #7 Princess Genevieve (8-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 5,6
Suggest Plays:



Race 8 - 1-1/8 mi Santa Anita Derby G1 - Play
A - #5 California Chrome (6/5) - lots to like off his San Felipe effort, he has to be respected as the likely winner. - WIN $3.40
B - #6 Candy Boy (9/5) - Ran above the average running time while winning the Robert B. Lewis.  I like the outside post and he appears to be working well.  I think the post position gives him a slight edge over Hoppertunity.
C - #3 Hoppertunity (3-1) - rounds out the big 3 that are going to have to go back to the barn and eat hay not to run 1,2,3.   Closed well in the Rebel and beat Tapiture who has proven to be a decent horse.  May be hampered by post, but Smith helps.
D - #7 Schoolofhardrocks (10-1) - exotics
E - #4 Big Tire (20-1) - exotics

Multi-Race Horses - 5,6,3
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 5 / 6,3 = $4 - HIT $11.20
$1 - 5,6,3 / 5,6,3 = $6 - HIT $5.60
$1 - 5 / 7,4 = $2


Race 10 - 6f OC - Play
A - #4 Explain (7/2) - takes a nice class drop while in for the claim, he's 2 for 3 at Sa.  Trainer has a 24% 1st claim percentage.  While the drop for a sale right off the claim is a little worrisome, his bullet work on Mar 30 going 58-4/5 and best of 51 horses builds confidence.  But a quick look at the math suggest that if he does win and is claimed that it would put money in the connections pocket over what they had to pay for him.
B - #6 Seeking Sherif (4-1) - has good early speed, is 3 for 4 at Sa and 4 for 4 in the exacta at Sa - WIN
C - #3 Too Fast to Pass (8-1) - drops from open claiming with 3 wins out of 8 tries at this distance
D - #1 Toledo Eddie (4-1) - exotics
E - #7 Raised a Secret (8-1) - exotics

Multi-Race Horses - 4,6
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 4 / 6,3,1,7 = $4
$1 - 4,6 / 4,6,3 = $4
$1 - 4 / 1,7 - $2

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