With a few more days of morning gallops left, here is a run down of 2014 Kentucky Derby field by post position and my thoughts on each. Some are on the bubble to include in my exotics, so I'll be waiting to hear what the clockers have to say about Thursday mornings gallops before I narrow down my final selections.
In my notes you'll see me mention Par Rating and Strike System. Both of those, plus 20 years worth of Kentucky Derby Statistics are included in my Kentucky Derby Stats Guide Package. For more information or to purchase the guide package go to www.bigdaystats.com
#1 Vicar's in Trouble (30-1) - Good wire to wire win last out. Pedigree suggests he may be able to
handle the distance. No horse that ran their last prep in the Louisiana
Derby has won the Kentucky Derby in the last 20 years. It will force
Rosie's hand to send him early to try to establish position. But, that
might not be all bad. Maybe he can hang on in the exotics, but he is
probably one I'll have to toss.
#2 - Harry's Holiday (50-1) - A quick look at his dirt form suggests others are much better. Would
need a huge step forward. Not heard anything really good from the
morning reports. Toss.
#3 Uncle Sigh (30-1) - Was game in the stretch of the Gotham and Withers, and he had some trip
issues in the Wood Memorial. Still his par #'s suggest he may not be as
good as some others in here. Just "ok" reports from the clockers.
Toss.
#4 Danza (10-1) - Good closing effort in the Arkansas Derby and he beat some proven
horses. Has looked great training in the mornings, with lots of energy.
However, just 2 horses in the last 20 years have won the Kentucky
Derby with just one race in a Kentucky Derby qualifying points race.
With that said and even with 3 strikes on my system, he's a live contender. He'll
be in my top 5 for sure.
#5 California Chrome (5/2) - Has been dominant in his last two starts. Horses that ran above par in
their last start have won the Kentucky Derby 65% of the time in the last
20 years. Will need to break sharp from this post. A step slow could
see him swallowed up at the break, just like Union Rags in 2012. His
race to lose.
#6 Samraat (15-1) - Always mixes it up at the end, but not sure he is good enough to get the
best of California Chrome. Clockers say he looks fine, but nothing
spectacular. Exotics use.
#7 We Miss Artie (50-1) - His two derby preps that were on dirt were total bombs. He hasn't run
near par in any of his races. Recent work was disappointing, he looks
like a toss.
#8 General a Rod (15-1) - A bottom end exotics candidate that has done little wrong, except win a
Derby prep. I like horse that win. Have heard he is not training like he did when he was in
Florida. Tough call here, but exotics use, maybe. But, only if he gallops well the next few days.
#9 Vinceremos (30-1) - He obviously didn't like the surface in the Blue Grass Stakes. But if
you throw that recent start out, he doesn't look bad. Clockers have
said he has good energy. On exotics bubble.
#10 Wildcat Red (15-1) - He has 0 strikes on my system. This guy has done nothing wrong in his last 2 starts, other than to get
edged by Constitution in the Florida Derby. Can't knock him on paper,
but the clockers have said he is not wowing them in the morning and may
not be taking to the Churchill surface. Another tough call to include
or exclude in the exotics. Certainly his Florida Derby form would put
him in the mix.
#11 Hoppertunity (6-1) - One of the horses that I give a good shot to win, esp. if something goes
wrong for California Chrome. His style should allow him to sit just
off the pace and he gobbles up ground in the stretch. I think he drew
decently well, top contender for sure.
#12 Dance With Fate (20-1) - Good win in the Blue Grass Stakes, but that was over the synthetic
surface at Keeneland. To consider his dirt form, we only have his two
dirt preps as a 2 year old to work with. Though he closed well last
out, he may be a cut below the top contenders. With that said, he may
plod his way into the exotics. And, I've heard he looked pretty good
Wednesday morning at Churchill.
#13 Chitu (20-1) - This is one I'll really struggle with. I'm not worried about the foot
issue that has caused him to wear a special shoe since last fall. After
all, he won the Sunland Derby and was a close second in the Robert B.
Lewis. I think this horse will fly under the radar and could
realistically hit the board at a good price, if he doesn't fade too far.
His one strike is a Basic one based on where he ran his last prep, it
has nothing to do with Ability or Current Form. Lots to like on paper,
but the distance is a serious question. Speed horses that don't fade out of the exotics can really blow up a bet. On the bubble for exotics use.
#14 Medal Count (20-1) - Will have run 3 races within 4 weeks when Kentucky Derby weekend
arrives. I have a lot of respect for Dale Romans as a trainer, but this does
seem like a lot. Also, his dirt form has been just average when you
compare it to others on this list. However, the clockers have posted
some encouraging notes. Hearing this I am moving him up from toss, to
exotics candidate.
#15 Tapiture (15-1) - I really liked this horse in the Southwest, but his last out in the
Arkansas Derby was flat. Possibly it was a step back or since he
already had enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby maybe he
wasn't cranked all the way up. He's run some good races in the past and
I think this is a great post draw for him. His last workout in the
rain/slop wasn't too bad. Definite exotics horse for me.
#16 Intense Holiday (12-1) - Draw a line thru his last start, not sure what happened when he drifted
and hit the rail turning for home. This colt has run some good races
this year and he gets a top rider. From what I have heard, he has had
good energy, but is still relaxed in the mornings. He'll likely crack my
top 5.
#17 Commanding Curve (50-1) - I've heard he doesn't look that great in the mornings. Plus all of his par ratings have been well below 100. A 5 strike horse that I think is a complete toss.
#18 Candy Boy (20-1) - Was well beaten in the Santa Anita Derby and I expected him to finish
close to Hoppertunity. Still, he did get the best of Chitu in the
Robert B. Lewis with an good performance on the par rating scale. He
has worked really well and give a good impression. I'll be giving him a
hard look over the next few days for exotics consideration.
#19 Ride On Curlin (15-1) - Was in the Superfecta in all 5 of his derby preps and in the Trifecta
in 4 out of 5 preps. But, I like horses that win and he hasn't gotten
the job done. I've heard reports that he looks good in the mornings.
I'll be looking at him as an exotics horse.
#20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - Strong showing when running par in the Wood Memorial. He closed well
and his par rating suggest he took a big step forward in that race. The
post is a concern, but you never know what will happen when the gates
open. If you liked him before I wouldn't let the post position stand in
my way. I'll be looking at him as an exotics candidate.
#21 Pablo De Monte (50-1) - ALSO ELIGIBLE - He will not draw in unless one of the top 20 scratch.
Set the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes
before fading to third. His best races have come on a synthetic
surface. On paper he appears to be a toss.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Monday, April 28, 2014
Bet the Derby - Kentucky Derby Strike System and Stats Guide
Let Big Day Stats help you handicap the Kentucky Derby!
Here is what our Kentucky Derby Guide Package includes:
Kentucky Derby Stats Guide - A Guide full of stats and analysis that will help you include or eliminate horses.
Kentucky Derby Supplement Sheets - A list of 24 Probable Starters for the Kentucky Derby. It includes Par Ratings, trip notes for each Kentucky Derby prep race, my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.
Our Kentucky Derby Strike System - A strike system based on our stats that looks at three categories Basic stats, Ability stats and Current Form stats. Using our strike system horses with 0 or 1 strike have won the Kentucky Derby 70% of the time in the last 20 years and produced a 53% ROI (Return on Investment). On average the Kentucky Derby field has contained 4.3 horses with 0 or 1 strike. This year only four horses fit these criteria.
With less than a week to go until the gate opens, it's time to start looking at the contenders!
Purchase our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide Package
Our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide includes:
Key Horses for Exotics
Post Position Stats
Winners by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Average Running Times
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Analysis of the Stats
Our guides also includes a list of the major 2 year old and 3 year old Kentucky Derby qualifying prep races. It shows their average running times for each track condition and their records in the Kentucky Derby. As with all of our guides, we show you the stats, give you our analysis and let you decide how use to them.
How to Order
The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont stat guides may be purchased individually for $8.00 each. Or, save $4 off the individual price by purchasing our Triple Crown package which includes all three races for $20.00.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can purchase any of our guides either securely online or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and Paypal.
Purchase our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide Package
If you are unable to access the above link, you may go to www.bigdaystats.com and click on "Stat Guides".
Here is what our Kentucky Derby Guide Package includes:
Kentucky Derby Stats Guide - A Guide full of stats and analysis that will help you include or eliminate horses.
Kentucky Derby Supplement Sheets - A list of 24 Probable Starters for the Kentucky Derby. It includes Par Ratings, trip notes for each Kentucky Derby prep race, my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.
Our Kentucky Derby Strike System - A strike system based on our stats that looks at three categories Basic stats, Ability stats and Current Form stats. Using our strike system horses with 0 or 1 strike have won the Kentucky Derby 70% of the time in the last 20 years and produced a 53% ROI (Return on Investment). On average the Kentucky Derby field has contained 4.3 horses with 0 or 1 strike. This year only four horses fit these criteria.
With less than a week to go until the gate opens, it's time to start looking at the contenders!
Purchase our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide Package
Our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide includes:
Key Horses for Exotics
Post Position Stats
Winners by Running Style
Average Running Times (Par Times)
Post Time Favorite Stats
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Finish
Top 4 Finishers by Last Race Track
Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
Average Running Times
Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
Analysis of the Stats
Our guides also includes a list of the major 2 year old and 3 year old Kentucky Derby qualifying prep races. It shows their average running times for each track condition and their records in the Kentucky Derby. As with all of our guides, we show you the stats, give you our analysis and let you decide how use to them.
How to Order
The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont stat guides may be purchased individually for $8.00 each. Or, save $4 off the individual price by purchasing our Triple Crown package which includes all three races for $20.00.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can purchase any of our guides either securely online or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and Paypal.
Purchase our Kentucky Derby Stats Guide Package
If you are unable to access the above link, you may go to www.bigdaystats.com and click on "Stat Guides".
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
4-23-2014 - Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
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Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Kentucky Derby Contenders
With all the Kentucky Derby qualifying races in the books, these are my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, along with their points and why I like them. I'll update it again in the next week as we hear more from the clockers.
#1 California Chrome - 150 points - ran a 106 on our par rating scale, which is the 2nd highest in the last 20 years. For comparison, I'll Have Another ran a 104. Like the way he pulled away in the stretch. There appears to be several speed horses headed to the Kentucky Derby, but it doesn't always workout the way it appears on paper. Plus, I think California Chrome can sit a few lengths off the lead and win. Seems to be the best headed to Kentucky. One note, horses that ran above a 100 par rating in the Santa Anita Derby have a high win percentage in the Preakness.
#2 Hoppertunity - 95 points - Even though California Chrome beat him by 5 lengths he still ran slightly above par in the Santa Anita Derby. He was game when he won the Rebel stakes, beating a troubled Tapiture who is a decent horse. He ran above par in that race as well. What I really like about him is he has a good running style for the Kentucky Derby and seems to be one of those horse who keep plodding along and hit the board. With him being beat 5 lengths by California Chrome he may be a little forgotten about, but don't count this guy out.
#3 Danza - 100 points - Got a good trip in the Arkansas Derby, but he drew off nicely for the win. He seems like a horse that might be peaking at the right time. Not sure he can be beat California Chrome or Hoppertunity, but he is definitely an exotics player.
#4 Samraat - 100 points - Has been game in the stretch in both of his last two races and I like that in a horse. Will definitely be included in my exotics and would move up if California Chrome didn't make the field for some reason.
#5 Wild Cat Red - 90 points - This guy just tries hard every single race and I love horses like that. For that reason I had to include him. He's also had two above par efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Looking forward to hearing what the clockers have to say over the next week.
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Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Kentucky Derby Contenders
With all the Kentucky Derby qualifying races in the books, these are my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, along with their points and why I like them. I'll update it again in the next week as we hear more from the clockers.
#1 California Chrome - 150 points - ran a 106 on our par rating scale, which is the 2nd highest in the last 20 years. For comparison, I'll Have Another ran a 104. Like the way he pulled away in the stretch. There appears to be several speed horses headed to the Kentucky Derby, but it doesn't always workout the way it appears on paper. Plus, I think California Chrome can sit a few lengths off the lead and win. Seems to be the best headed to Kentucky. One note, horses that ran above a 100 par rating in the Santa Anita Derby have a high win percentage in the Preakness.
#2 Hoppertunity - 95 points - Even though California Chrome beat him by 5 lengths he still ran slightly above par in the Santa Anita Derby. He was game when he won the Rebel stakes, beating a troubled Tapiture who is a decent horse. He ran above par in that race as well. What I really like about him is he has a good running style for the Kentucky Derby and seems to be one of those horse who keep plodding along and hit the board. With him being beat 5 lengths by California Chrome he may be a little forgotten about, but don't count this guy out.
#3 Danza - 100 points - Got a good trip in the Arkansas Derby, but he drew off nicely for the win. He seems like a horse that might be peaking at the right time. Not sure he can be beat California Chrome or Hoppertunity, but he is definitely an exotics player.
#4 Samraat - 100 points - Has been game in the stretch in both of his last two races and I like that in a horse. Will definitely be included in my exotics and would move up if California Chrome didn't make the field for some reason.
#5 Wild Cat Red - 90 points - This guy just tries hard every single race and I love horses like that. For that reason I had to include him. He's also had two above par efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Looking forward to hearing what the clockers have to say over the next week.
Friday, April 11, 2014
4-12-2014 - Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby Day Races 9-11
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Stat Guides
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Updated 1:45pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 6f Instant Racing Stakes - Play
A - #2 Jojo Warrior (2-1) - steps out of Md Sp Wt, but so does several others in here. Though she was off the pace in her last start he was with 1-1/2 lengths at the top of the stretch call. She's worked like a machine and appears to be ready. She'll get a lot of play being a Baffert horse so you may want to look to the exotics for value.
B - #1 Adrianne G (5/2) - is 2 for 2 at Op and 2 for 3 at this distance, speed on the inside could be dangerous if she catches a flyer leaving the gate
C - #5 Sweetmarys Success (7/2) - drawn outside the other speed she may sit a good trip if several go at it on the front end
D - #3 Annuity (9/2) - Beyers fit as she gets back to sprinting, always in the Exacta at Op
E - #4 Street Story (8-1) - may be off form as of late, but a turn around here puts her in the exotics - WIN
Multi-Race Horses - 2,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2 / 1 / 5,3 = $4
$1 - 1 / 2 / 5,3 = $2
$1 - 2,1 / 5,3 / 2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 2,1 / 2,1 / 4 = $1
$0.50 - 2,1 / 5,3 / 5,3,4 = $4
Race 10 - 1-1/8 mi Oaklawn Handicap - Play
A - #2 Will Take Charge (Even) - if he runs to his current form he is going to win, not many horses run a 114 Beyer in their last start and get beat 1-3/4 lengths, he needs to be well within striking distance (2 lengths) turning for home - WIN $2.80
B - #6 Golden Lad (4-1) - is a nice improving horse trained by Pletcher, definite exotics contender
C - #1 Revolutionary (9/2) - I don't think he is a win candidate here without a huge step forward, but he always gives a solid effort which would land him in the exotics here
D - #7 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - has posted some nice Beyers and me be a little forgotten about with the other big names in here. Definite exotics boost.
E - #4 Carve (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 2
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2 / 6 / 1 = $3
$1 - 2 / 6,1 / 1,6,7,4 = $6 - HIT $25.10
$1 - 6 / 2 / 1,7,4 = $3
$0.50 - 2 / 6,1 / 7,4 = $2 - HIT $12.55
$0.50 - 2 / 7,4 / 6,1 = $2
Race 11 - 1-1/8 Arkansas Derby G1 - Play
A - #3 Tapiture (9/5) - Has don't little wrong in his last 3 races. Was bumped around in the stretch last out while having to force a hole to go through. Horse that ran 1st or 2nd in their last start have won the AR Derby 75% in the last 20 years. Should sit a close stalking trip. Hard to knock him.
B - #8 Bayern (2-1) - This guy appears solid on paper, but 18 of the last 20 (90%) of the AR Derby winners ran in a previous Ky Derby Prep. Still based on several basic handicapping principals he must be respected and will likely finish in the money.
C - #4 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - Was soundly beaten in the Southwest by Tapiture and Strong Mandate, but only lost by a length in the Rebel. He has steadily improved and must be considered, esp. in the exotics.
D - #9 Strong Mandate (9/2) - Has steadily improved on our par rating scale and the Beyer scale, but Tapiture has handed it to him 2 times this year. Both times he did have some trip issues. He should be able to stay outside of trouble, but he will likely have to race wide if he doesn't break on top. I think he must be respected based on his improving form, but I want to see him turn the tables on Tapiture this year before I back him to win. Heavy exotics candidate.
E - #7 Conquest Titan (10-1) - I think this guy offers the best value in the race, mainly in the exotics. Horses that have run a par rating greater than 102 in any previous Ky Derby prep race have occupied at least one spot in the Exacta 72%, the Trifecta 79% and the Superfecta 84% of the time. There are only 2 horses in this field that fit these criteria. If he can sneak into the Tri or Super it will kick it up a notch.
Multi-Race Horses - 3,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3 / 8 / 4,9 = $4
$1 - 3 / 8 / 4,9,7 = $3
$0.50 - 3,8 / 3,8 / 4,9,7,6 = $4
$0.50 - 3,8 / 4,9,7,6 / 3,8 = $4
$0.50 - 3,8 / 4,9 / 4,9,7 = $4
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Stat Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 1:45pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 6f Instant Racing Stakes - Play
A - #2 Jojo Warrior (2-1) - steps out of Md Sp Wt, but so does several others in here. Though she was off the pace in her last start he was with 1-1/2 lengths at the top of the stretch call. She's worked like a machine and appears to be ready. She'll get a lot of play being a Baffert horse so you may want to look to the exotics for value.
B - #1 Adrianne G (5/2) - is 2 for 2 at Op and 2 for 3 at this distance, speed on the inside could be dangerous if she catches a flyer leaving the gate
C - #5 Sweetmarys Success (7/2) - drawn outside the other speed she may sit a good trip if several go at it on the front end
D - #3 Annuity (9/2) - Beyers fit as she gets back to sprinting, always in the Exacta at Op
E - #4 Street Story (8-1) - may be off form as of late, but a turn around here puts her in the exotics - WIN
Multi-Race Horses - 2,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2 / 1 / 5,3 = $4
$1 - 1 / 2 / 5,3 = $2
$1 - 2,1 / 5,3 / 2,1 = $4
$0.50 - 2,1 / 2,1 / 4 = $1
$0.50 - 2,1 / 5,3 / 5,3,4 = $4
Race 10 - 1-1/8 mi Oaklawn Handicap - Play
A - #2 Will Take Charge (Even) - if he runs to his current form he is going to win, not many horses run a 114 Beyer in their last start and get beat 1-3/4 lengths, he needs to be well within striking distance (2 lengths) turning for home - WIN $2.80
B - #6 Golden Lad (4-1) - is a nice improving horse trained by Pletcher, definite exotics contender
C - #1 Revolutionary (9/2) - I don't think he is a win candidate here without a huge step forward, but he always gives a solid effort which would land him in the exotics here
D - #7 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - has posted some nice Beyers and me be a little forgotten about with the other big names in here. Definite exotics boost.
E - #4 Carve (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 2
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2 / 6 / 1 = $3
$1 - 2 / 6,1 / 1,6,7,4 = $6 - HIT $25.10
$1 - 6 / 2 / 1,7,4 = $3
$0.50 - 2 / 6,1 / 7,4 = $2 - HIT $12.55
$0.50 - 2 / 7,4 / 6,1 = $2
Race 11 - 1-1/8 Arkansas Derby G1 - Play
A - #3 Tapiture (9/5) - Has don't little wrong in his last 3 races. Was bumped around in the stretch last out while having to force a hole to go through. Horse that ran 1st or 2nd in their last start have won the AR Derby 75% in the last 20 years. Should sit a close stalking trip. Hard to knock him.
B - #8 Bayern (2-1) - This guy appears solid on paper, but 18 of the last 20 (90%) of the AR Derby winners ran in a previous Ky Derby Prep. Still based on several basic handicapping principals he must be respected and will likely finish in the money.
C - #4 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - Was soundly beaten in the Southwest by Tapiture and Strong Mandate, but only lost by a length in the Rebel. He has steadily improved and must be considered, esp. in the exotics.
D - #9 Strong Mandate (9/2) - Has steadily improved on our par rating scale and the Beyer scale, but Tapiture has handed it to him 2 times this year. Both times he did have some trip issues. He should be able to stay outside of trouble, but he will likely have to race wide if he doesn't break on top. I think he must be respected based on his improving form, but I want to see him turn the tables on Tapiture this year before I back him to win. Heavy exotics candidate.
E - #7 Conquest Titan (10-1) - I think this guy offers the best value in the race, mainly in the exotics. Horses that have run a par rating greater than 102 in any previous Ky Derby prep race have occupied at least one spot in the Exacta 72%, the Trifecta 79% and the Superfecta 84% of the time. There are only 2 horses in this field that fit these criteria. If he can sneak into the Tri or Super it will kick it up a notch.
Multi-Race Horses - 3,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3 / 8 / 4,9 = $4
$1 - 3 / 8 / 4,9,7 = $3
$0.50 - 3,8 / 3,8 / 4,9,7,6 = $4
$0.50 - 3,8 / 4,9,7,6 / 3,8 = $4
$0.50 - 3,8 / 4,9 / 4,9,7 = $4
4-12-2014 - Keeneland - Blue Grass Stakes
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Stat Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 1:50pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Blue Grass Stakes G1 - Action
A - #8 Dance With Fate (12-1) - Was beaten just a 1/2 length in the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic. He ran a 98 on our par rating scale in the El Camino, which is the highest in 2014 on synthetic of any horse entered in this race. He's got the right running style and should be sitting 3-5 lengths off the pace. I like the way he has steadily improved. Top choice at a nice price. - Winner $14.80
B - #5 Bobby's Kitten (3-1) - Will probably be on the lead and that running style has not done well in the Blue Grass since the switch to synthetic. But some good works over the Keeneland track and his affinity for the turf makes him a top contender.
C - #13 Medal Count (9/2) - Ran a good Beyer on the Keeneland synthetic last out when the race came off the turf. Romans wheels him around just six days later, which can be a successful move. Legitimate contender.
D - #11 Coastline (8-1) - 3rd beaten a head in the Spiral. He's recent work suggest he's still in good form. Some things to like here, exotics use.
E - #9 Big Bazinga (20-1) - Ran above par back in Oct 2013 in Grey Stakes at Woodbine. Was beaten soundly in the Holy Bull, but he is back on his preferred surface today and has turned in a decent work. Big exotics boost if he can hit the board.
Multi-Race Horses - 8,5,13,11,9
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 5,13 = $4 - HIT $127.60
$1 - 8 / 11,9 = $2
$1 - 5,13,11 / 8 = $3
$1 - 5,13,11 / 5,13,11 = $6
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Stat Guides
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 1:50pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 11 - 1-1/8 mi Blue Grass Stakes G1 - Action
A - #8 Dance With Fate (12-1) - Was beaten just a 1/2 length in the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic. He ran a 98 on our par rating scale in the El Camino, which is the highest in 2014 on synthetic of any horse entered in this race. He's got the right running style and should be sitting 3-5 lengths off the pace. I like the way he has steadily improved. Top choice at a nice price. - Winner $14.80
B - #5 Bobby's Kitten (3-1) - Will probably be on the lead and that running style has not done well in the Blue Grass since the switch to synthetic. But some good works over the Keeneland track and his affinity for the turf makes him a top contender.
C - #13 Medal Count (9/2) - Ran a good Beyer on the Keeneland synthetic last out when the race came off the turf. Romans wheels him around just six days later, which can be a successful move. Legitimate contender.
D - #11 Coastline (8-1) - 3rd beaten a head in the Spiral. He's recent work suggest he's still in good form. Some things to like here, exotics use.
E - #9 Big Bazinga (20-1) - Ran above par back in Oct 2013 in Grey Stakes at Woodbine. Was beaten soundly in the Holy Bull, but he is back on his preferred surface today and has turned in a decent work. Big exotics boost if he can hit the board.
Multi-Race Horses - 8,5,13,11,9
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 5,13 = $4 - HIT $127.60
$1 - 8 / 11,9 = $2
$1 - 5,13,11 / 8 = $3
$1 - 5,13,11 / 5,13,11 = $6
Thursday, April 10, 2014
4-10-2014 - Pimlico Races 2-8
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Updated 12:15pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 1-1/16 mi Clm - Play
A - #6 Romp City (7/5) - let's see, will very likely inherit an easy lead, has the best speed figure, has 2 wins at this distance and trained by Jamie Ness. Is very likely the winner, but will be over bet.
B - #3 Secret Jackpot (8-1) - takes a small class drop from 4UP 16K, style may hamper win chances, Romp City beat in last out, exotics use
C - #4 Stand Proud (8-1) - small class drops from 4UP 16K, but was beat by Romp City in last out, 8 of 11 in money at this distance, exotics use
D - #1 Big Bad Ike (5-1) - style may hurt this guy with lack of pace in the race, but is 8 of 10 in the money at this distance
Multi-Race Horses - 6
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6 / 4 = $3
$2 - 6 / 3,4,1 = $6
Scratch - #2, #5
Race 3 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #3 She Be Bunny (7/5) - has declined in form lately, but is dropping in class and may best these even with the form decline, would like to see her running on the front end, very sketchy favorite
B - #4 Sister Sharon (9/5) - class drops, but is shipping from Ct which doesn't say much, but the drop and speed figures must be respected in this situation
C - #7 Le Sonja (15-1) - another maybe in this race, exotics boost
D - #5 Storm Da Chaser (20-1) - will try for lead, but loves to fade late, exotics boost if can hang on for a piece
E - #2 Midsummer's Eve (15-1) - another exotics candidate
Multi-Race Horses - 3,4,7,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 4 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #2 Sarah's Whisper (5/2) - not much to chose from in this N2L, but maybe she can grab the lead and hold on, decent beyer's against these
B - #7 Hope and Mercy (2-1) - another horse with potential for early speed which can be good in these bottom level claiming races
C - #3 Vivaco (6-1) - fits just looking a speeds figures
D - #5 Elbertini (6-1)
E - #1a Boastful Dancer (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 2,7,3
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 5 - 5f Clm TURF - Action
A - #9 M's Punch (3-1) - 1st out in 2014, but has run decent #'s on the turf, top choice in a field where I don't really like much
B - #3 Smart N Smokin (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, will be coming from off the pace, beyer's fit
C - #5 Katie Malone (10-1) - could boost exotics, has run some decent #'s in the past, but those were not earned while sprinting
D - #6 Gindini (8-1) - No Turf experience, but lands a decent jockey with turf experience
E - #4 Runaway Dame (9/2) - No Turf experience, but breeding suggest she may take to it, maybe
Multi-Race Horses - 9,3,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 6 - 6f Clm - Action+
A - #4 We Found Love (9/5) - class drops with a decent finish against better last out, speed figures fit and has always been in the exacta at this distance, will need to sit close with very little speed in the race
B - #6 Tubal (5-1) - class drops, has good beyers, has a shot
C - #5 Pushin' On (3-1) - always in the trifecta at this distance, exotics shot for sure
D - #7 Ascendancy (7/2)
E - #2 Crow Bar (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 4,6,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 7 - 5f Alw TURF - Play
A - #6 Bowman's Boy (3-1) - has drilled to recent bullet works, takes a nice class drop, like the presence of Russell esp. in turf races, may be able to grab the lead and has good closing figures
B - #7 Star Maneuver (6-1) - the morning line odds would be a steal here, this horse runs excellent closing fractions, but will be coming from slightly off the pace
C - #2 English Minister (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, another horse that will be running late and will need to work out a trip from the inside, note that 82 beyer was not earned while sprinting
D - #3 Sortano (7/2) - has never sprinted on the turf, but has some things to like, wait and see in the win category, but exotics use for sure
E - #8 Make My Saturday (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 6,7
Suggest Plays:
(as always check the exacta payouts and make sure they are worth the cost, if not you'll need to shorten up)
$4 - 6 / 7 = $4
$2 - 7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 6 / 2 = $1
$1 - 6,7 / 2,3,8 = $6
Scratch - #1
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #2 Connemara Coast (5/2) - will be forced to use speed from the 1 hole, but has paired to good figures and gets the services of a smart jockey, definitely a top contender, best shot to beat the favorite
B - #8 Avarice (6/5) - has really good figures, but don't see taking that short of a price, should get good position, good shot, but is vulnerable
C - #7 Thurmont (6-1) - form seems to be improving, will be coming from off the pace which is always tough in sprints, needs some pace
D - #6 Coach Fridge (10-1) - another off the pace horse with decent figures, exotics boost
E - #3 Dream of Scipio (20-1) - like the early speed, but does fade
Multi-Race Horses - 2,8
Suggest Plays:
(check the exacta prices, but I expect the 2 and 8 will be pounded pretty heavily, so we'll need the Trifecta to try to add some value)
$2 - 8 / 2 / 7 = $2
$1 - 2 / 8 / 7 = $1
$1 - 8,2 / 8,2 / 7,6,3 = $6
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7 / 8,2 - $1
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7,6 / 8,2 = $2
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7,6 / 7,6,3 = $4
Follow @BigDayStats
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 12:15pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 1-1/16 mi Clm - Play
A - #6 Romp City (7/5) - let's see, will very likely inherit an easy lead, has the best speed figure, has 2 wins at this distance and trained by Jamie Ness. Is very likely the winner, but will be over bet.
B - #3 Secret Jackpot (8-1) - takes a small class drop from 4UP 16K, style may hamper win chances, Romp City beat in last out, exotics use
C - #4 Stand Proud (8-1) - small class drops from 4UP 16K, but was beat by Romp City in last out, 8 of 11 in money at this distance, exotics use
D - #1 Big Bad Ike (5-1) - style may hurt this guy with lack of pace in the race, but is 8 of 10 in the money at this distance
Multi-Race Horses - 6
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 6 / 4 = $3
$2 - 6 / 3,4,1 = $6
Scratch - #2, #5
Race 3 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #3 She Be Bunny (7/5) - has declined in form lately, but is dropping in class and may best these even with the form decline, would like to see her running on the front end, very sketchy favorite
B - #4 Sister Sharon (9/5) - class drops, but is shipping from Ct which doesn't say much, but the drop and speed figures must be respected in this situation
C - #7 Le Sonja (15-1) - another maybe in this race, exotics boost
D - #5 Storm Da Chaser (20-1) - will try for lead, but loves to fade late, exotics boost if can hang on for a piece
E - #2 Midsummer's Eve (15-1) - another exotics candidate
Multi-Race Horses - 3,4,7,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 4 - 6f Clm - Action
A - #2 Sarah's Whisper (5/2) - not much to chose from in this N2L, but maybe she can grab the lead and hold on, decent beyer's against these
B - #7 Hope and Mercy (2-1) - another horse with potential for early speed which can be good in these bottom level claiming races
C - #3 Vivaco (6-1) - fits just looking a speeds figures
D - #5 Elbertini (6-1)
E - #1a Boastful Dancer (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 2,7,3
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 5 - 5f Clm TURF - Action
A - #9 M's Punch (3-1) - 1st out in 2014, but has run decent #'s on the turf, top choice in a field where I don't really like much
B - #3 Smart N Smokin (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, will be coming from off the pace, beyer's fit
C - #5 Katie Malone (10-1) - could boost exotics, has run some decent #'s in the past, but those were not earned while sprinting
D - #6 Gindini (8-1) - No Turf experience, but lands a decent jockey with turf experience
E - #4 Runaway Dame (9/2) - No Turf experience, but breeding suggest she may take to it, maybe
Multi-Race Horses - 9,3,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 6 - 6f Clm - Action+
A - #4 We Found Love (9/5) - class drops with a decent finish against better last out, speed figures fit and has always been in the exacta at this distance, will need to sit close with very little speed in the race
B - #6 Tubal (5-1) - class drops, has good beyers, has a shot
C - #5 Pushin' On (3-1) - always in the trifecta at this distance, exotics shot for sure
D - #7 Ascendancy (7/2)
E - #2 Crow Bar (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 4,6,5
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 7 - 5f Alw TURF - Play
A - #6 Bowman's Boy (3-1) - has drilled to recent bullet works, takes a nice class drop, like the presence of Russell esp. in turf races, may be able to grab the lead and has good closing figures
B - #7 Star Maneuver (6-1) - the morning line odds would be a steal here, this horse runs excellent closing fractions, but will be coming from slightly off the pace
C - #2 English Minister (5/2) - 1st out in 2014, another horse that will be running late and will need to work out a trip from the inside, note that 82 beyer was not earned while sprinting
D - #3 Sortano (7/2) - has never sprinted on the turf, but has some things to like, wait and see in the win category, but exotics use for sure
E - #8 Make My Saturday (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 6,7
Suggest Plays:
(as always check the exacta payouts and make sure they are worth the cost, if not you'll need to shorten up)
$4 - 6 / 7 = $4
$2 - 7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 6 / 2 = $1
$1 - 6,7 / 2,3,8 = $6
Scratch - #1
Race 8 - 6f Alw - Play
A - #2 Connemara Coast (5/2) - will be forced to use speed from the 1 hole, but has paired to good figures and gets the services of a smart jockey, definitely a top contender, best shot to beat the favorite
B - #8 Avarice (6/5) - has really good figures, but don't see taking that short of a price, should get good position, good shot, but is vulnerable
C - #7 Thurmont (6-1) - form seems to be improving, will be coming from off the pace which is always tough in sprints, needs some pace
D - #6 Coach Fridge (10-1) - another off the pace horse with decent figures, exotics boost
E - #3 Dream of Scipio (20-1) - like the early speed, but does fade
Multi-Race Horses - 2,8
Suggest Plays:
(check the exacta prices, but I expect the 2 and 8 will be pounded pretty heavily, so we'll need the Trifecta to try to add some value)
$2 - 8 / 2 / 7 = $2
$1 - 2 / 8 / 7 = $1
$1 - 8,2 / 8,2 / 7,6,3 = $6
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7 / 8,2 - $1
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7,6 / 8,2 = $2
$0.50 - 8,2 / 7,6 / 7,6,3 = $4
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
Guides from Big Day Stats Reviewed
I would like to thank James Robins for his review of the Stat Guides from Big Day Stats in the Phillips Racing Newsletter. It was well written and the response has been overwhelming from its subscribers. James Robins has spent much of
his life around winning horses. In fact, he lives next door to past Kentucky Derby winners. Besides writing books, articles and
reviews, he also sends
out FREE picks for top races on Saturdays. He offers full-card
selections for NY and FL, available the day before the races. If you are interested you may contact Jim at www.ThoroRanch.com or sonicblue52@yahoo.com for details and questions.
Monday, April 7, 2014
4-7-2014 - Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
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Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Kentucky Derby Contenders
With two 100 point prep races to go these are my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, along with their points and why I like them.
#1 California Chrome - 150 points - ran a 106 on our par rating scale, which is the 2nd highest in the last 20 years. For comparison, I'll Have Another ran a 104. Like the way he pulled away in the stretch. There appears to be several speed horses headed to the Kentucky Derby, but it doesn't always workout the way it appears on paper. Plus, I think California Chrome can sit a few lengths off the lead and win. Seems to be the best headed to Kentucky. One note, horses that ran above a 100 par rating in the Santa Anita Derby have a high win percentage in the Preakness.
#2 Tapiture - 42 points - ran a 100 par rating in the Southwest and again in the Rebel while finishing a troubled 2nd. Like the win in the Southwest and I am looking forward to seeing him run in the Arkansas Derby.
#3 Hoppertunity - 95 points - Even though California Chrome beat him by 5 lengths he still ran slightly above par in the Santa Anita Derby. He was game when he won the Rebel stakes, beating a troubled Tapiture who is a decent horse. He ran above par in that race as well. What I really like about him is he has a good running style for the Kentucky Derby and seems to be one of those horse who keep plodding along and hit the board. With him being beat 5 lengths by California Chrome he may be a little forgotten about, but don't count this guy out.
#4 Samraat - 100 points - Has been game in the stretch in both of his last two races and I like that in a horse. Will definitely be included in my exotics and would move up if California Chrome didn't make the field for some reason.
#5 Constitution - 100 points - A great win running above par in the Florida Derby, though he did get an inside trip. Still he is lightly raced and should be improving at the right time. People quote, "No horse has won the Kentucky Derby that didn't run as a 2 yr old since Apollo." But, I don't put a lot of stock in that. First, unless the sample size was even with horses that ran as 2 year olds and ones that didn't make their first start until 3, then the results will be skewed. And obviously, there have been a lot more horses in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby that ran as a 2 year old. And, we don't have to look too far back to see a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby, not having run at the age of 2 - Bodemeister 2012.
#6 Wild Cat Red - 90 points - This guy just tries hard every single race and I love horses like that. For that reason I had to include him. He's also had two above par efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Looking forward to getting these last two 100 point preps under our belts and then hear what the clockers have to say.
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Kentucky Derby Stats Guide
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Kentucky Derby Contenders
With two 100 point prep races to go these are my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, along with their points and why I like them.
#1 California Chrome - 150 points - ran a 106 on our par rating scale, which is the 2nd highest in the last 20 years. For comparison, I'll Have Another ran a 104. Like the way he pulled away in the stretch. There appears to be several speed horses headed to the Kentucky Derby, but it doesn't always workout the way it appears on paper. Plus, I think California Chrome can sit a few lengths off the lead and win. Seems to be the best headed to Kentucky. One note, horses that ran above a 100 par rating in the Santa Anita Derby have a high win percentage in the Preakness.
#2 Tapiture - 42 points - ran a 100 par rating in the Southwest and again in the Rebel while finishing a troubled 2nd. Like the win in the Southwest and I am looking forward to seeing him run in the Arkansas Derby.
#3 Hoppertunity - 95 points - Even though California Chrome beat him by 5 lengths he still ran slightly above par in the Santa Anita Derby. He was game when he won the Rebel stakes, beating a troubled Tapiture who is a decent horse. He ran above par in that race as well. What I really like about him is he has a good running style for the Kentucky Derby and seems to be one of those horse who keep plodding along and hit the board. With him being beat 5 lengths by California Chrome he may be a little forgotten about, but don't count this guy out.
#4 Samraat - 100 points - Has been game in the stretch in both of his last two races and I like that in a horse. Will definitely be included in my exotics and would move up if California Chrome didn't make the field for some reason.
#5 Constitution - 100 points - A great win running above par in the Florida Derby, though he did get an inside trip. Still he is lightly raced and should be improving at the right time. People quote, "No horse has won the Kentucky Derby that didn't run as a 2 yr old since Apollo." But, I don't put a lot of stock in that. First, unless the sample size was even with horses that ran as 2 year olds and ones that didn't make their first start until 3, then the results will be skewed. And obviously, there have been a lot more horses in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby that ran as a 2 year old. And, we don't have to look too far back to see a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby, not having run at the age of 2 - Bodemeister 2012.
#6 Wild Cat Red - 90 points - This guy just tries hard every single race and I love horses like that. For that reason I had to include him. He's also had two above par efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Looking forward to getting these last two 100 point preps under our belts and then hear what the clockers have to say.
Saturday, April 5, 2014
4-5-2014 - Santa Anita Derby Day Races 3,5,6,8,10
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Updated 2:05pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 3 - 6-1/2f Echo Eddie Stakes - Play
A - #6 Oh Daddy Oh (4-1) - could wire this field, is 2 for 3 at Sa
B - #9 Pray Hard (3-1) - will be poised to pounce if Oh Daddy Oh doesn't wire
C - #3 Well Measured (6-1) - nice works, split Oh Daddy Oh and Pray Hard in last out
D - #2 Whine for Wine (4-1)
E - #8 Life Is a Joy (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses - 6,9
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6 / 9,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 2,8 = $2
$1 - 9 / 3,6,2 = $3
Race 5 - 1-1/16 Santa Anita Oaks G1 - Play
A - #1 Fashion Plate (5/2) - like the inside post with early speed, is 2 for 2 at Sa and a G1 winner - WIN $6.20
B - #3 Ria Antonia (2-1) - is better than last out showed, like the recent works
C - #5 Arethusa (4-1) - 3rd beaten roughly a length in a G1, will be running late
D - #4 Honey Ride (3-1) - exotics
E - #6 Artemis (6-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 1,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1,3 / 1,3 = $4 - HIT $15.80
$1 - 1,3 / 5,4,6 = $6
Race 6 - 6-1/2f Evening Jewel Stakes - Action
A - #5 Harlington's Rose (7/2) - could be best here with a good trip, should be sitting just off pace
B - #6 Rovenna (3-1) - good early speed - WIN
C - #8 Cause Ur My Babe (9/2)
D - #4 Chati's On Top (4-1)
E - #7 Princess Genevieve (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 5,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/8 mi Santa Anita Derby G1 - Play
A - #5 California Chrome (6/5) - lots to like off his San Felipe effort, he has to be respected as the likely winner. - WIN $3.40
B - #6 Candy Boy (9/5) - Ran above the average running time while winning the Robert B. Lewis. I like the outside post and he appears to be working well. I think the post position gives him a slight edge over Hoppertunity.
C - #3 Hoppertunity (3-1) - rounds out the big 3 that are going to have to go back to the barn and eat hay not to run 1,2,3. Closed well in the Rebel and beat Tapiture who has proven to be a decent horse. May be hampered by post, but Smith helps.
D - #7 Schoolofhardrocks (10-1) - exotics
E - #4 Big Tire (20-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 5,6,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5 / 6,3 = $4 - HIT $11.20
$1 - 5,6,3 / 5,6,3 = $6 - HIT $5.60
$1 - 5 / 7,4 = $2
Race 10 - 6f OC - Play
A - #4 Explain (7/2) - takes a nice class drop while in for the claim, he's 2 for 3 at Sa. Trainer has a 24% 1st claim percentage. While the drop for a sale right off the claim is a little worrisome, his bullet work on Mar 30 going 58-4/5 and best of 51 horses builds confidence. But a quick look at the math suggest that if he does win and is claimed that it would put money in the connections pocket over what they had to pay for him.
B - #6 Seeking Sherif (4-1) - has good early speed, is 3 for 4 at Sa and 4 for 4 in the exacta at Sa - WIN
C - #3 Too Fast to Pass (8-1) - drops from open claiming with 3 wins out of 8 tries at this distance
D - #1 Toledo Eddie (4-1) - exotics
E - #7 Raised a Secret (8-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 4,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4 / 6,3,1,7 = $4
$1 - 4,6 / 4,6,3 = $4
$1 - 4 / 1,7 - $2
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Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 2:05pm ET.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 3 - 6-1/2f Echo Eddie Stakes - Play
A - #6 Oh Daddy Oh (4-1) - could wire this field, is 2 for 3 at Sa
B - #9 Pray Hard (3-1) - will be poised to pounce if Oh Daddy Oh doesn't wire
C - #3 Well Measured (6-1) - nice works, split Oh Daddy Oh and Pray Hard in last out
D - #2 Whine for Wine (4-1)
E - #8 Life Is a Joy (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses - 6,9
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6 / 9,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 2,8 = $2
$1 - 9 / 3,6,2 = $3
Race 5 - 1-1/16 Santa Anita Oaks G1 - Play
A - #1 Fashion Plate (5/2) - like the inside post with early speed, is 2 for 2 at Sa and a G1 winner - WIN $6.20
B - #3 Ria Antonia (2-1) - is better than last out showed, like the recent works
C - #5 Arethusa (4-1) - 3rd beaten roughly a length in a G1, will be running late
D - #4 Honey Ride (3-1) - exotics
E - #6 Artemis (6-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 1,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1,3 / 1,3 = $4 - HIT $15.80
$1 - 1,3 / 5,4,6 = $6
Race 6 - 6-1/2f Evening Jewel Stakes - Action
A - #5 Harlington's Rose (7/2) - could be best here with a good trip, should be sitting just off pace
B - #6 Rovenna (3-1) - good early speed - WIN
C - #8 Cause Ur My Babe (9/2)
D - #4 Chati's On Top (4-1)
E - #7 Princess Genevieve (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 5,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/8 mi Santa Anita Derby G1 - Play
A - #5 California Chrome (6/5) - lots to like off his San Felipe effort, he has to be respected as the likely winner. - WIN $3.40
B - #6 Candy Boy (9/5) - Ran above the average running time while winning the Robert B. Lewis. I like the outside post and he appears to be working well. I think the post position gives him a slight edge over Hoppertunity.
C - #3 Hoppertunity (3-1) - rounds out the big 3 that are going to have to go back to the barn and eat hay not to run 1,2,3. Closed well in the Rebel and beat Tapiture who has proven to be a decent horse. May be hampered by post, but Smith helps.
D - #7 Schoolofhardrocks (10-1) - exotics
E - #4 Big Tire (20-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 5,6,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5 / 6,3 = $4 - HIT $11.20
$1 - 5,6,3 / 5,6,3 = $6 - HIT $5.60
$1 - 5 / 7,4 = $2
Race 10 - 6f OC - Play
A - #4 Explain (7/2) - takes a nice class drop while in for the claim, he's 2 for 3 at Sa. Trainer has a 24% 1st claim percentage. While the drop for a sale right off the claim is a little worrisome, his bullet work on Mar 30 going 58-4/5 and best of 51 horses builds confidence. But a quick look at the math suggest that if he does win and is claimed that it would put money in the connections pocket over what they had to pay for him.
B - #6 Seeking Sherif (4-1) - has good early speed, is 3 for 4 at Sa and 4 for 4 in the exacta at Sa - WIN
C - #3 Too Fast to Pass (8-1) - drops from open claiming with 3 wins out of 8 tries at this distance
D - #1 Toledo Eddie (4-1) - exotics
E - #7 Raised a Secret (8-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 4,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4 / 6,3,1,7 = $4
$1 - 4,6 / 4,6,3 = $4
$1 - 4 / 1,7 - $2
4-5-2014 - Aqueduct Races 8-11 - Wood Memorial Day
Keep up with the latest on my selections, changes, trip notes and stats by following me on Twitter @BigDayStats
Follow @BigDayStats
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 12:30pm.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multi Race Bets-
$500K Guaranteed Pick 4 - Races 8-11
I decided the ticket had enough value without dividing it up to allow for multiple hits.
$0.50 - 6,8 / 4,3,2 / 8,10,3,11 / 5,4,6 = $36
Race 8 - 7f Bay Shore G3 - Play
A - #6 Favorite Tale (5-1) - great early speed, but will need to carry that against stiffer competition
B - #8 Kobe's Back (2-1) - drawn outside he'll should be in an excellent position to take over if the speed comes back, has won a G2 race
C - #7 The Admiral (3-1) - good beyers, cutting back in distance, will need a step forward to mix it up for the win category
D - #2 Oliver Zip (10-1) - exotics
E - #5 Loki's Vengeance (15-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 6,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6 / 8,7 = $4
$1 - 6 / 2 = $1
$1 - 8,7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 6,8,7 / 6,8,7 = $6
Race 9 - 1-1/8mi Gazelle G2 - Action
A - #4 My Miss Sophia (9/5) - stretching out and first versus winners, but a move fwd from her last out will be tough to handle here - WIN $3.60
B - #3 Sweet Reason (8/5) - can run so much better than last out, here's hoping for a return of her form
C - #2 Got Lucky (3-1) - another Pletcher trained horse, she ran good in a G2 last year only losing by a neck, another step forward and she looks tough
D - #5 Vero Amore (12-1) - exotics use
E - #6 Bird Maker (8-1) - exotics use
Multi-Race Horses - 4,3,2
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Wood Memorial G1 - Action
A - #8 Samraat (7/2) - I don't love him here, but I like his post position much better than Uncle Sigh and Social Inclusion, plus we know he can sit and pounce, plus he fits all 3 criteria that the majority of the Wood Memorial winners share
B - #10 Uncle Sigh (5-1) - would have liked him a lot better if he had drawn a little more inside, still he is as game as they come and he'll be running hard
C - #3 Noble Moon (12-1) - fits the same 3 criteria that I mentioned with Samraat, needs a big step forward, but it's possible. Good exotics boost.
D - #11 Social Inclusion (2-1) - I like the horse but I had to make the choice to be for him or against him and I chose against. I do not like the outside post for him, plus horses who earn big beyers while racing on a loose lead rarely repeat them when pressured. And, you can bet the company will be tougher here. He is trying to beat the fact that in the last 20 years 90% of the Wood Memorial winners have run in a previous Ky Derby prep. Still if he clears the field and gets the lead...watch out.
E - #7 Schivarelli (15-1) - may sit a good trip under Castellano, has some speed, distance may be a question, exotics boost
Multi-Race Horses - 8,10,3,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8 / 10,3,11 = $3
$1 - 8,10,11 / 8,10,11 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Carter Handicap G1 - Action
A - #5 Strapping Group (4-1) - is a G1 winner with plenty of class and good beyers, lots to like
B - #4 Dad Caps (12-1) - he has a lot of early speed and the price isn't bad in this salty group, love to see him in the exotics - WIN
C - #6 Sahara Sky (2-1) - this Met Mile winner will need to step up from his recent outs, but it is completely possible
D - #2 Clearly Now (5-1) - good beyers, but 1st out in 2014, like the 6f work in 1:11
E - #1 Central Banker (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 5,4,6
Suggest Plays:
I usually don't suggest boxing, unless it is used as a saver. But with so many options the prices figure to be right. If the Exacta prices look juicy then I would use your top picks in a couple of boxes and then create a couple of plays with an emphasis on your top selections. This insures you hit multiple times if you are correct and allows you to cash if you are almost right.
$1 - 5 / 4,6,2,1 = $4
$1 - 4,6 / 5,2 = $4
$1 - 5,4,6 / 5,4,6 = $6 - HIT $69.25
$1 - 5,4,2 / 5,4,2 = $6
Follow @BigDayStats
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 12:30pm.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multi Race Bets-
$500K Guaranteed Pick 4 - Races 8-11
I decided the ticket had enough value without dividing it up to allow for multiple hits.
$0.50 - 6,8 / 4,3,2 / 8,10,3,11 / 5,4,6 = $36
Race 8 - 7f Bay Shore G3 - Play
A - #6 Favorite Tale (5-1) - great early speed, but will need to carry that against stiffer competition
B - #8 Kobe's Back (2-1) - drawn outside he'll should be in an excellent position to take over if the speed comes back, has won a G2 race
C - #7 The Admiral (3-1) - good beyers, cutting back in distance, will need a step forward to mix it up for the win category
D - #2 Oliver Zip (10-1) - exotics
E - #5 Loki's Vengeance (15-1) - exotics
Multi-Race Horses - 6,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6 / 8,7 = $4
$1 - 6 / 2 = $1
$1 - 8,7 / 6 = $2
$1 - 6,8,7 / 6,8,7 = $6
Race 9 - 1-1/8mi Gazelle G2 - Action
A - #4 My Miss Sophia (9/5) - stretching out and first versus winners, but a move fwd from her last out will be tough to handle here - WIN $3.60
B - #3 Sweet Reason (8/5) - can run so much better than last out, here's hoping for a return of her form
C - #2 Got Lucky (3-1) - another Pletcher trained horse, she ran good in a G2 last year only losing by a neck, another step forward and she looks tough
D - #5 Vero Amore (12-1) - exotics use
E - #6 Bird Maker (8-1) - exotics use
Multi-Race Horses - 4,3,2
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Wood Memorial G1 - Action
A - #8 Samraat (7/2) - I don't love him here, but I like his post position much better than Uncle Sigh and Social Inclusion, plus we know he can sit and pounce, plus he fits all 3 criteria that the majority of the Wood Memorial winners share
B - #10 Uncle Sigh (5-1) - would have liked him a lot better if he had drawn a little more inside, still he is as game as they come and he'll be running hard
C - #3 Noble Moon (12-1) - fits the same 3 criteria that I mentioned with Samraat, needs a big step forward, but it's possible. Good exotics boost.
D - #11 Social Inclusion (2-1) - I like the horse but I had to make the choice to be for him or against him and I chose against. I do not like the outside post for him, plus horses who earn big beyers while racing on a loose lead rarely repeat them when pressured. And, you can bet the company will be tougher here. He is trying to beat the fact that in the last 20 years 90% of the Wood Memorial winners have run in a previous Ky Derby prep. Still if he clears the field and gets the lead...watch out.
E - #7 Schivarelli (15-1) - may sit a good trip under Castellano, has some speed, distance may be a question, exotics boost
Multi-Race Horses - 8,10,3,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8 / 10,3,11 = $3
$1 - 8,10,11 / 8,10,11 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Carter Handicap G1 - Action
A - #5 Strapping Group (4-1) - is a G1 winner with plenty of class and good beyers, lots to like
B - #4 Dad Caps (12-1) - he has a lot of early speed and the price isn't bad in this salty group, love to see him in the exotics - WIN
C - #6 Sahara Sky (2-1) - this Met Mile winner will need to step up from his recent outs, but it is completely possible
D - #2 Clearly Now (5-1) - good beyers, but 1st out in 2014, like the 6f work in 1:11
E - #1 Central Banker (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 5,4,6
Suggest Plays:
I usually don't suggest boxing, unless it is used as a saver. But with so many options the prices figure to be right. If the Exacta prices look juicy then I would use your top picks in a couple of boxes and then create a couple of plays with an emphasis on your top selections. This insures you hit multiple times if you are correct and allows you to cash if you are almost right.
$1 - 5 / 4,6,2,1 = $4
$1 - 4,6 / 5,2 = $4
$1 - 5,4,6 / 5,4,6 = $6 - HIT $69.25
$1 - 5,4,2 / 5,4,2 = $6
Friday, April 4, 2014
4-5-2014 - Pimlico Races 2,4,7-9
Keep up with the latest on my selections, changes, trip notes and stats by following me on Twitter @BigDayStats
Follow @BigDayStats
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 11:50am.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 6f Clm - Play
A - #3 Grace Is a Beauty (9/5) - the speed horse in the race with good beyers - WIN $2.60
B - #5 Amelia Rose (8-1) - will be coming late and some pace will help, exotics
C - #1 Miss Glengar (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses -3
Suggest Plays:
$4 - 3 / 5 = $4 - HIT $9.20
$2 - 3 / 1 = $2
Race 4 - 6f Clm - Action+
A - #5 Irish Irene (9/5) - trnr is 33% off the claim and horse has run #'s that put her in the mix here - WIN $4.80
B - #7 Midian (3-1) - takes a nice class drop from open company, very likely
C - #6 Will n' Pat (2-1) - has run good beyers, but has not run well at this distance or at Pim
D - #3 One More Son (20-1) - exotics boost only
E - #1 Slewdious (15-1) - exotics boost only
Multi-Race Horses - 5,7,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 7 - 5f Mister Diz Stakes TURF - Play
A - #3 Ben's Cat (1/5) - this guy can close and has tons of class over these, he is 4 of 7 at Pim and 12 of 18 at this distance, look for him to arrive on the scene late with a head of steam - WIN $2.40
B - #8 Capital Fellow (12-1) - he'll be running hard on the front end in his 1st out in 2014, hopefully he can hang on to finish in the exotics at a price
C - #1 A P Elvis (15-1) - has some class and is 2 for 3 at Pim
D - #7 Relentless Move (15-1) - like the post position and the early speed, has never been out of Exacta on the Pim turf and is 5 for 11 at this distance
Multi-Race Horses - 3,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3 / 8,1 = $4
$1 - 3 / 7 = $1
$1 - 3,8 / 3,8 = $2
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi The Twixt Stakes - Play
A - #2 Inspired Say Eye (4-1) - like the post and may get an uncontested lead
B - #4 Steady N Love (Even) - good beyers and class, should make it a race in the stretch
C - #1 Charlie Renee (8/5) - ran a nice beyer last out, will need to work out a trip
D - #3 Turf Craze (8-1) - exotics booster
Multi-Race Horses - 2,4
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 2 / 4 = $5
$3 - 2 / 1 = $3
$1 - 4,1 / 2 = $2
Race 9 - 1mi Dahlia Stakes TURF - Action+
A - #8 Divine Luck (10-1) - McGaughey trained mare is taking a step up in class and will need a good trip, but Sheldon Russell who is a good turf jockey gets the mount. Will need a slight step up on the beyer scale, but is capable
B - #1 Joy (3-1) - solid beyers and class, owns a win over this course and at this distance
C - #2 Zucchini Flower (4-1) - has got some class in non graded stakes, good beyers and I always like Graham Motion on the turf
D - #3 Embarr (7/2) - won this event last year, will need to recover some good form to repeat here. She is 3 for 4 on this Pimilco course and has won 4 out of 9 at this distance - WIN
E - #5 Too Clever by Half (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 8,1,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 1,2 = $4
$1 - 8 / 3 = $1
$1 - 1,2 / 8 = $1
$1 - 8,1,2 / 8,1,2 = $6
Follow @BigDayStats
Our Stat Guide Packages for the Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Races are now available! These guides contain detailed stats for all the races in Triple Crown and 100 Point Kentucky Derby qualifying races including Positive ROI Stats and our analysis. To Buy or for more information and pricing, visit our website BigDayStats.com
Updated 11:50am.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key A & B horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 2 - 6f Clm - Play
A - #3 Grace Is a Beauty (9/5) - the speed horse in the race with good beyers - WIN $2.60
B - #5 Amelia Rose (8-1) - will be coming late and some pace will help, exotics
C - #1 Miss Glengar (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses -3
Suggest Plays:
$4 - 3 / 5 = $4 - HIT $9.20
$2 - 3 / 1 = $2
Race 4 - 6f Clm - Action+
A - #5 Irish Irene (9/5) - trnr is 33% off the claim and horse has run #'s that put her in the mix here - WIN $4.80
B - #7 Midian (3-1) - takes a nice class drop from open company, very likely
C - #6 Will n' Pat (2-1) - has run good beyers, but has not run well at this distance or at Pim
D - #3 One More Son (20-1) - exotics boost only
E - #1 Slewdious (15-1) - exotics boost only
Multi-Race Horses - 5,7,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 7 - 5f Mister Diz Stakes TURF - Play
A - #3 Ben's Cat (1/5) - this guy can close and has tons of class over these, he is 4 of 7 at Pim and 12 of 18 at this distance, look for him to arrive on the scene late with a head of steam - WIN $2.40
B - #8 Capital Fellow (12-1) - he'll be running hard on the front end in his 1st out in 2014, hopefully he can hang on to finish in the exotics at a price
C - #1 A P Elvis (15-1) - has some class and is 2 for 3 at Pim
D - #7 Relentless Move (15-1) - like the post position and the early speed, has never been out of Exacta on the Pim turf and is 5 for 11 at this distance
Multi-Race Horses - 3,8
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3 / 8,1 = $4
$1 - 3 / 7 = $1
$1 - 3,8 / 3,8 = $2
Race 8 - 1-1/16mi The Twixt Stakes - Play
A - #2 Inspired Say Eye (4-1) - like the post and may get an uncontested lead
B - #4 Steady N Love (Even) - good beyers and class, should make it a race in the stretch
C - #1 Charlie Renee (8/5) - ran a nice beyer last out, will need to work out a trip
D - #3 Turf Craze (8-1) - exotics booster
Multi-Race Horses - 2,4
Suggest Plays:
$5 - 2 / 4 = $5
$3 - 2 / 1 = $3
$1 - 4,1 / 2 = $2
Race 9 - 1mi Dahlia Stakes TURF - Action+
A - #8 Divine Luck (10-1) - McGaughey trained mare is taking a step up in class and will need a good trip, but Sheldon Russell who is a good turf jockey gets the mount. Will need a slight step up on the beyer scale, but is capable
B - #1 Joy (3-1) - solid beyers and class, owns a win over this course and at this distance
C - #2 Zucchini Flower (4-1) - has got some class in non graded stakes, good beyers and I always like Graham Motion on the turf
D - #3 Embarr (7/2) - won this event last year, will need to recover some good form to repeat here. She is 3 for 4 on this Pimilco course and has won 4 out of 9 at this distance - WIN
E - #5 Too Clever by Half (15-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 8,1,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8 / 1,2 = $4
$1 - 8 / 3 = $1
$1 - 1,2 / 8 = $1
$1 - 8,1,2 / 8,1,2 = $6
Thursday, April 3, 2014
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