Post Preakness & Early Belmont Thoughts

As we look to the Belmont Stakes this weekend there are several things to consider when looking back at the Preakness and the way it was run.  First of all, let's hope the rain holds off this weekend because it should be a great few days of racing.  Also, Colonial Downs opens on Saturday and that is what I consider my home track.  So I'll have picks up for Colonial as well as Belmont this weekend.  If it rains, I'll probably skip the majority of the Belmont races since admittedly I am not the best wet track handicapper.

Post Preakness Thoughts
First off, what a great few days of racing.  My wife and I always go up every year for Black-Eyed Susan and Preakness Days and for these two days they really do it right.  If you haven't been to a Preakness, I would highly suggest it!

The Preakness race itself was really interesting, not only from the way it ended up being run, but also from a betting aspect.  But, unfortunately for my wallet, I played Orb to finish no worse than 3rd.  After the Kentucky Derby I wrote that I thought the Preakness would be Orb's biggest challenge and after he drew post one I noted he would have to workout a trip.  While I was really hoping that Rosario could get Orb to the outside that never happened.  And unfortunately, the inside of the Pimlico track was not the place to be on Friday or Saturday.  It was interesting to hear Gary Stevens say that when he walked across the track he sank up to his ankles near the rail and instantly knew that was not the place to be with Oxbow.  Also, Rosie Napravnik commented that when she got Mylute down inside and she instantly felt him begin to struggle, so she quickly moved him more to the outside.  

After hearing those two comments and watching the replay several times, Orb was definitely compromised by a combination of the inside post and Pimlico track.  Orb made a move going into the far turn that looked like he was going to make a run, but then instantly backed up.  I think that was due to how deep the track was on the inside and he had to be tired when he tried to make that move.  But, the one thing I took out of this race is that Orb never quit trying.  Turning for home he looked like he would be doing well just to get 6th.  He continued to gut it out down the stretch and get up for 4th.  I like that in a horse.

Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday both had good trips.  Nobody was catching Oxbow once he shook loose early and down the backstretch I knew the race was over.  There has been a lot of criticism on Kevin Krigger's ride on Goldencents.  He obviously conceded the lead to Oxbow and then moved over into a stalking position.  A lot of people have said he should have pressed the pace, but Krigger may have noticed the same deep inside that Gary Stevens and Rosie talked about and decided his best chance was to move Goldencents to the outside.  If that is the case, I can't blame him because had he stayed on the inside of the track it would have beaten him from the start.  Oxbow, is a tough little horse that always seems to show up when he is on or near the lead, and stealing a race on the lead is still the best way to win.  I should have been a little more keen to where Oxbow finished in the Derby based on where he was in relation to the early pace.

Itsmyluckyday showed it was probably the track in the Derby that he didn't like.  He ran a great second, but was never in contention of the loose on the lead Oxbow.  He should be a great horse to play around with when he is in peak form.  Also, Mylute ran a sneaky good race closing down the outside.  He always seems to come with his run and sooner or later he's going to nail someone on the wire.

Early Belmont Thoughts
Well, we should have a nice field for the Belmont Stakes and I think that is in part to Orb being beaten decisively in the Preakness.  Though we don't have a Triple Crown on the line, we do have the next best thing, which is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners meeting in the Belmont.  As I stated above I think Orb's 4th place Preakness finish was an illusion because of the depth of the track on the inside and he was still running all the way to the wire.  One thing that really makes me like Orb in the Belmont is the way he runs even splits in his races.  Horse like that often win the Belmont and I really like his chances here.  He as shown he has the class, ability and can lay closer to the pace if needed, he'll just need some daylight on the outside turning for home.  And the 4th place finish in the Preakness should help his odds, though he may very well still be the favorite.

In the Belmont you want to be up close or just stalking within a few lengths of the pace.  With a clean break, Oxbow fits this mold so I wouldn't toss him out.  Though Revolutionary is a closer, he is as game as they come and always seems to fight to the wire.  Golden Soul was able to keep Revolutionary boxed in around the second turn in the Derby.  Which allowed him to get the jump on Revolutionary and beat him to the wire.  I do think Revolutionary is the better horse of the two, but Golden Soul is improving and shouldn't be left out, though I am not crazy about his running style in the Belmont.

As of right now Orb, Revolutionary, Oxbow and Golden Soul are my key horses, with the edge given to Orb for the win.  Will Take Charge will be a horse I'll use, especially if he is drawn outside.  Because of his big body he needs plenty of room to just cruise along and be able to make one long sustained run sustained run to the wire.  But, all these thoughts are before seeing the entire field and doing any handicapping, so check back after the draw for my final thoughts.