Belmont 6-8-2013 - Belmont Stakes Day Races

Updated 11:22am.

Card Notes-
I'm hoping the track will dry out some as the day progress.  Sunshine and wind into the afternoon should help.

My Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race.  Possible use in Multirace or small Exacta bet.  Winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Play - Lots of clarity in the race.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.  Can usually get by with A or B horse in the Multi Race bets.
Prime - Excellent betting race or multirace single.  Single in Exacta, Trifecta or Multi Race bets 

Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8,9,10,11
$0.50 - 6,3,2,4 / 6,1,9,11 / 1,8 / 5 = $16
$0.50 - 6,3,2,4 / 6,1,9,11 / 1 / 5,9,13,3,2,14 = $48



Race 6 - 1-1/16 miles Easy Goer Stakes - Action+
A - #4 Doherty (6-1) - I think he'll give Power Broker a run for his money and for better value
B - #2 Power Broker (7/5) - the obvious choice
C - #9 Irsaal (4-1) - another one with the ability to upset
D - #8 Wabbajack (8-1)
E - #6 Eton Blue (20-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
4,2,9

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:




Race 7 - 6f True North G2 - Play
A - #6 Sage Valley (5/2) - another run close to his last two puts him on top
B - #1 Justin Phillip (7/5) - has won two in a row, but can be a money burner, will be running in stretch
C - #5 Caixa Eletronica (7/2) - old guy can get it done on his best day, will need to rebound from last out, won this last year
D - #2 Laurie's Rocket (12-1) - beyer's suggest a cut below best in here, exotics value
E - #1a Fast Bullet (7/5) - coupled, but if JP scratches it would move him up, note the high beyers have come on poly and that doesn't allows transfer to dirt

Multi-Race Horses-
6,1

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #6




Race 8 - 1 mi TURF Just A Game Gr 1 - Action+
A - #6 Mizdirection (7/2) - hoping Smith can get her on the lead or just off the leader and kick home, like the post for the trip
B - #3 Centre Court (3-1) - very much the class of the race G1 & G2 record is 4-2-0 from 6 starts, would not be a surprise
C - #2 Stephanie's Kitten(5/2) - another one with plenty of class, will be closing late
D - #4 Dayatthespa (6-1) - good value on this G1 winner, should be up close or on the lead
E - #1 Hungry Island (4-1) - got the best of Winter Memories last year, but is without a G1 win

Multi-Race Horses-
6,3,2,4

Race Notes-
There will probably be value in the Exacta, if you have a good opinion you could potentially score there.


Suggested Plays:
$2 - 6,3 / 6,3 = $4
$1 - 6,3 / 2,4,1 = $6



Race 9 - 7f Woody Stephens G2 - Action+
A - #6 Zee Bros (4-1) - with that effort last out 4-1 would be a dream, the recent work suggest he is holding his form, 7f should be within his scope against this bunch
B - #1 Declan's Warrior (8-1) - Zito is high on this horse, 2 for 2 at Belmont and distance, value
C - #9 Clearly Now (8-1)
D - #11 Let Em Shine (3-1)
E - #7 Forty Tales (5-1)

Multi-Race Horses-
6,1,9,11

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:
$10 Win #6 - if odds are 2-1 or higher



Race 10 - 1-1/4miles TURF Manhattan Handicap G1 - Play
A - #1 Point of Entry (3/5) - is way the class of this field, but will need to work out a trip from post 1
B - #8 Twilight Eclipse (8-1) - is 2 for 3 in G2 races, may sit a great trip from post 8
C - #5 Optimizer (6-1) - should relish the wet turf, does better in G3 company, but should mix up exotics
D - #7 Bombaguia (15-1) - will be up close, not sure he's got the class, bottom of exotics
E - #6 Plainview (30-1) - never gone this distance, will go for lead and may hang on in exotics, screams value

Multi-Race Horses-
1,8

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays:
$1 - 1 / 8,5 / 8,5,7,6,9 = $8
$1 - 8 / 1,5 = $2



Race 11 - 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes G1 - Play
A - #5 Orb (3-1) - is class of race and really is his race to lose, he runs even splits and that type of horse does well in the Belmont

B - #9 Revolutionary (9/2) - have liked this horse since the Withers, he is as game as they come and I thought his finish in the Kentucky Derby could have been a little better if he didn't have to wait behind horses on the far turn.  He should like the outside post.

C - #13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - I always love a filly against the boys, I shopped around for a horse that is going to sit close to the lead and could take over turning for home, this is wear I landed.  Look for her to get out of the gate quick to secure a good stalking position.

D - #3 Overanalyze (12-1) - though it was slow I still like the way he was finishing in the Arkansas Derby.  Not sure he'll like the off track, but he does offer some value in the exotics.

E - #2 Freedom Child (8-1) - should like the track and will be forwardly places if not on the lead.  Shaded 1:00 in his last workout.  In both wins he has been loose on the lead and I'm not sure he'll get that here and then the question becomes how far will he fade at 1-1/2 miles.


Deep Exotic Use or Value Add-Ons-
#7 Oxbow (5-1) - has every right move fwd again, but the distance is a question and all his wins have come on the lead as well.

#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - has a lot of up side with the way he finished in the Kentucky Derby, but off the pace style runners rarely win the Belmont.

#11 Vyjack (20-1) - fired a get work last out, but this horse is always like rolling the dice for my, definite bottom of trifecta and superfecta use

#12 Palace Malice (15-1) - needs to right the ship, but with blinkers off and a solid work tab he could be a contender.  Plus Mike Smith knows how to win on this track.

Multi-Race Horses-
5,9,13

Race Notes-

Suggested Plays: 
$1 - 5 / 9,13,3,2 / 9,13,3,2,7,14,11 = $24.00
$1 - 9,13,3,2 / 5 = $4