Belmont Day Trip Notes

I thought the track dried out fairly well.  Sometimes when there has been a lot of rain and the track has been sealed it doesn't play as you think when it returns to fast as it did later in the day, but it seemed fair enough.  I had a flop of a day at Belmont, I tried to catch a few prices in the sprints, but those didn't come through and my Belmont selections were way off.  Below are my trip notes and thoughts from each of the major stakes race.

Race 7 - 6f True North - Grade 2
#1 Justin Phillip - was on rail, couldn't get to leader in stretch, no excuses

#1a Fast Bullet - jumped out to a quick lead, wired field

#5 Caixa Eletronica - trailed and was never a factor, seemed flat

#6 Sage Valley - broke slow, never a factor.  lost much need positioning b/c of slow break


Race 8 - 1 mile TURF Just A Game - Grade 1
#2 Stephanie's Kitten - stalked, came thru on rail, battled in stretch for win, game effort but had dream trip on rail

#6 Mizdirection - set pace, faded off turn, track conditions may not have been to liking

#7 Better Lucky - 3w on turn, took lead, ran well thru stretch, edged just before wire


Race 9 - 7f Woody Stephens - Grade 2
Race Notes - Fast early pace

#1 Declan's Warrior - shifted in late stretch to find room between horses, lost by a head, having to shift cost some momentum and ground loss

#6 Zee Bro's - was up close to fast pace, faded in final furlong backing up hard.  6f may be best distance unless against softer competition

#11 Let Em Shine - was on lead for fast pace, faded


Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles TURF Manhattan Handicap - Grade 1
#1 Point of Entry - had to fight down stretch to get by Optimizer and hold off closer, very game effort for win

#4 Real Solution - good run, but couldn't get by top 2

#5 Optimizer - stalked 2L off pace, moved on 2 Turn, got lead, was game in stretch but edged by Point of Entry.  held very well for 2nd, gave Point of Entry all he wanted


Race 11 - 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes - Grade 1
Race Notes - solid to fast early pace for 1-1/2 mile race, all horses tired in stretch

#1 Frac Daddy - battled for lead, faded badly

#2 Freedom Child - battled for lead, faded badly

#4 Giant Finish - backed up very early in race

#5 Orb - was too far back early, made a huge run beginning mid backstretch.  he circled 10 horses, but flattened in stretch.  in most races the move he made would have been a winning one, but at 1-1/2 miles it is a difficult run to sustain.  

#7 Oxbow - was close to fast early pace, held on well for 2nd

#9 Revolutionary - looked a contender on 2nd turn, but flattened

#12 Palace Malice - stalked, took lead turning for home, tired but ran hard for wire

#14 Golden Soul - was far back, made up some ground

One note on the Belmont Stakes, a lot of critics have said that Palace Malice came home in :27 and change, and that Orb couldn't close into that 1/4 mile fraction.  That is true but, Orb had already been running hard since mid backstretch and had circled 10 horse by the time they came off the 2nd turn.  I think a better way to analyze Orb's performance is to look at the fractions of Orb and Oxbow from the 4f mark to the 10f mark.  Using the slightly rudimentary scale of 1/5 of a second equals 1 length here are the fractional times from 4f to 10f:

Pace 1:06.56
Oxbow 1:06.54
Orb 1:04.66 (that's only a fifth of a second slower than he ran his final 6f in the Kentucky Derby)

Orb made up a considerable amount of ground during that time, running almost a full 2 seconds faster than Oxbow.  That move will win a lot of races in North America, not to mention that he passed a lot of decent horses like they were standing still.  But, unfortunately because of the energy expended, this is not a move that wins a lot of races at 1-1/2 miles races on the dirt...unless of course, your name is Calidoscopio!

It should be an interesting summer of racing, Oxbow is the little engine that could and he'll win his fair share of races when he is on or close to the lead and in top form.  Orb should not be discounted off his Preakness and Belmont efforts, while the Preakness effort seemed dull his Belmont race may have been better than it looked.  But, it will however help his odds next time out!  

And for now, I'm really interested to turn my attention to the handicap division and my home track of Colonial Downs.