Belmont Stakes Stats Guide
How does California Chrome fit the statistics for the Belmont Stakes? Get ready for the Belmont Stakes with our Belmont Stakes Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the third leg of the Triple Crown.
Triple Crown Winners & Post Time Favorites share Winning %
On June 7th, California Chrome will try to become just the 12th horse since 1919 to sweep the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont Stakes. The excitement that builds in the 3 weeks between the Preakness and Belmont when a Triple Crown is on the line is as good as it gets in the sport of Horse Racing. The last time we had this scenario was in 2012 when a game I'll Have Another ran down Bodemeister in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He looked poised to take down the Triple Crown for the first time since Affirmed in 1978. Unfortunately, just a few days before the Belmont Stakes, I'll Have Another had to be scratched due to an injury that ended his racing career. As always, I applaud his connections for taking care of the horse. I had been at the Preakness to see him just get by Bodemeister at the wire. I can honestly say that was the most exciting horse race I have ever seen live. Going into the Belmont based on his post position and grinding running style I thought he was a lock to win the race. The let done from the I'll Have Another scratch in the Belmont was tough to swallow for this horse racing fan and handicapper.
Then there was Big Brown in 2008, a dominant winner in both the Derby and Preakness. He came into the race looking like a monster only to be eased going around the 2nd turn. Smarty Jones in 2004 was race ridden by other jockeys throughout the race which softened him to get beat in the shadow of the wire. In 2003, Funny Cide failed in his bid. War Emblem in 2002, was a horse that needed to be on the lead, he lost all chance when he stumbled badly leaving the gate. In 1998, Real Quiet came about as close as a horse can to winning the Triple Crown. In a race that had to be decided by a photo, Real Quiet was beaten by a nose in the Belmont Stakes.
With the current 36 year Triple Crown drought and the recent near misses it got me curious about the percentage of horses that win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but lose in the Belmont, versus those horses that sweep the Triple Crown by winning all three races. As we know including Sir Barton in 1919 (although it was not officially named Triple Crown at the time) there have been 11 horses to win all three races. They are Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978).
Although it was not officially name the "Triple Crown" at the time, Sir Barton was later credited as a Triple Crown winner after sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 1919. So, we'll start looking at our statistics from that point forward.
Since 1919, there have been 33 horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. But, 3 of those horses did not run in the Belmont Stakes (1932, 1936, 2012). That leaves us with 30 horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and went on to compete in the Belmont Stakes. As we already know, 11 of those horses completed the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont Stakes. That would give us a 37% win percentage in the Belmont Stakes for horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. That is just slightly better than the post time favorite wins everyday at tracks all across America. From this point of view, horses trying for the Triple Crown aren't fairing too bad.
Now, let's dig a little deeper by splitting in half the 30 years where a horse won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. The first half would be from 1919 to 1969. Obviously, there were 15 attempts to win the Triple Crown. Of those 15 attempts, 8 horses won the Triple Crown. That gives us a 53% win percentage in the Belmont Stakes during those years for horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
The second half is from1971 to current. Again, during this time period there were 15 attempts to complete the Triple Crown. Just 3 times during those 15 attempts did a horse win the Triple Crown. That computes to only a 20% win average for the Triple Crown during those years. When looking at the sample from this point of view it would appear the trend is going down for Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners that go on to win the Belmont Stakes thus sweeping the Triple Crown.
However, when it is feasible I always think it is better to look at statistics as a whole instead of picking and choosing which parts of the sample to use. Though I do have to take notice of the downward trend over the last 15 attempts, I also have to note that during that time period we have had some near misses and some purely bad racing luck for horses trying for the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. In 1979, Spectacular Bid was given a bad ride when he was allowed to set fast early fractions. He faded to 3rd in the stretch. In 1981, Pleasant Colony finished 3rd beaten just 2 lengths. After having the lead for most of the stretch drive Silver Charm lost by just 1/2 a length in 1997. The closest we've come to a Triple Crown winner during this 36 year drought was in 1998 when Real Quiet was beaten by just a few inches at the wire. In 1999, after getting a brief lead in the stretch, Charismatic was beaten just 2 lengths. As I mentioned before, in 2002 War Emblem stumbled badly at the start losing all chance as he was a horse that needed to race on the lead. In 2004, the very game Smarty Jones fought off challenges for nearly the entire race only to lose by 1 length. Finally, in 2008, the mighty Big Brown looked poised pounce going into the 2nd turn, but he was eased as they rounded the turn. Later, it was discovered that one of Big Brown's shoes was flopping during the race.
With all those near misses in just the last 15 attempts at sweeping the Triple Crown, I think it is best to look at the sample as a whole from 1919 until current. A 37% win percentage in the Belmont Stakes for horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness is not bad when compared to the win percentage for post time favorites at tracks everyday.
To me this suggest we'll see one (if not several) soon...Bring it Home Chrome!
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