Post Preakness Stakes Thoughts

Belmont Stakes Stats Guide
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Post Preakness Stakes Thoughts 

California Chrome Preakness Par Rating:  102

#3 California Chrome - Going into the race I said in my selections that if he breaks clean he is the best horse in the race by a few lengths.  What I didn't expect was to see him prove exactly how much better than these he really is.  First, he broke sharp and established great position within the first 1/16 of a mile.  My wife and I were sitting in the grandstand at the 1/8 pole.  When I saw his position as he past us the first time I leaned over and told my wife that he just won the race.  But, the crowd was so loud she couldn't hear me.  California Chrome stalked 2 lengths off the pace in great position on the outside until just before the 2nd turn.  

That is when Luis Contreras decided to move early with Social Inclusion to try get the jump on California Chrome.  This move by Social Inclusion was way too early and could have very well cost him a place.  Going into the 2nd turn as soon as Social Inclusion ran up on the outside of California Chrome, Victor Espinoza's hand was forced.  He had to put California Chrome in the race early.  If he didn't, he risked getting his lane shut off and having to run down Social Inclusion later in stretch.  He let out enough to keep California Chrome just ahead of Social Inclusion until the top of the stretch.  Meanwhile, Joel Rosario on Ride On Curlin was watching all this unfold from the back of the pack.  He slowly advanced on Ride On Curlin into striking position on the turn hoping the premature move by Social Inclusion would soften up California Chrome - it did not.  

When asked by Espinoza, California Chrome with his quick burst of speed, quickly dispatched of Social Inclusion at the top of the stretch and looked to be pulling away from the field.  That is when Joel Rosario pushed the "Go" button on Ride On Curlin.  I'm sure he was expecting California Chrome to fold in the stretch after having to move so early to match strides with Social Inclusion.  But California Chrome didn't come back and the best Ride On Curlin could do was to get within a 1-1/2 lengths at the finish even though he ran the best race of his career.  After repelling bids from Social Inclusion and Ride On Curlin, California Chrome cruised under the wire much the best of this field.

To me what was most impressive about California Chrome is that he broke sharp, establish good position, was forced to move way early, repelled that foe, sustained that run to the wire while repelling a second closing foe that was running the race of his life.  And, California Chrome did this on the inside part of the track, which over this spring meet at Pimlico has not been the best place to be.

#10 Ride On Curlin - Got a great trip and I think the rider change from the Kentucky Derby was justified.  In the Preakness, Ride On Curlin sat about 9 lengths off the pace down the back stretch.  He started to move up as they approached the 2nd turn.  Then he made a gradual sustained bid circling the field on the 2nd turn.  He was well within striking distance as they turned into the stretch where he was asked for full run.  Ride On Curlin easily ran past a tiring Social Inclusion and set his sights on California Chrome.  He closed the gap down the stretch, but California Chrome was moving well and Ride On Curlin couldn't catch him.  He was easily 2nd best in the Preakness as it was almost 7 lengths back to Social Inclusion.  In the Preakness, Ride On Curlin ran the best race of his career thus far.


#8 Social Inclusion - Was getting really hot before the race, but on some horses I don't mind all the sweating as that is just something they do.  Shackleford who won the 2011 Preakness was the same way.  Social Inclusion did act up in gate and nearly flipped.  He didn't break sharp and that left him having to stalk the pace instead of being on the lead.  Luis Contreras sent him up on the outside of California Chrome as they entered the 2nd turn and that pair battled around the turn before California Chrome put him away turning for home.  Social Inclusion  was obviously tiring in the stretch as he shift in and out a few times.  It looked to me like Contreras, aboard Social Inclusion, thought he could get the jump on California Chrome with that early move.  But, Social Inclusion couldn't sustain the run and that caused him to tire in the stretch.  Also, I thought he needed to break sharp and go for the lead.  Speed is his weapon and he was taken out of his game a little at the break.  He seems like he could be a great miler to 1-1/8 mile horse.  But, nonetheless he is still lightly raced and has a lot to learn.  I would expect to see improvement going forward from this one.


#5 Bayern - Was squeezed badly between Ria Antonia and Ring Weekend at the break.  Then had to check again off Social Inclusion when California Chrome shifted out.  At this point he was completely out of his game and never got to be forwardly placed, which is his running style. 


#6 Ria Antonia - I try not to criticize when someone runs a horse, but she was grossly over matched.  And then, Calvin Borel rushes her up to the front to challenge the leader.  She backed up badly on the 2nd turn interfering with General a Rod.  I can't imagine this is the trip her connections had in mind.


#4 Ring Weekend - Usually does his best running on the lead and was not able to get there this time.  Look for a good return next out if racing on the lead against lessers.


#2 General a Rod - Another one that typically races closer to the lead, but was further back in the Preakness.  Next to Bayern this is the only other horse that I thought had a trip excuse.  General a Rod was advancing on the the 2nd turn when Ria Antonia decided to throw in the towel and she backed up sharply into General a Rod, forcing him to step on the brakes.  Once he got clear he continued to close and just missed catching Social Inclusion by a nose.  Certainly the trip trouble on the 2nd turn cost him 3rd place.


The Preakness is an awesome place to be, especially when the Kentucky Derby winner comes back and wins again.  I told several people that I've been in the Dean Dome when Carolina beat Duke on a last second shot that was missed by Duke.  That place was loud, but it didn't come close to rivaling how loud Pimlico was when California Chrome won.  The people sitting next to us at the Preakness said they were at the Olympics when Usain Bolt broke the world record and that didn't compare to the Preakness.  All this to say, if you've never been to a Triple Crown race, the Preakness is a great one to start with and in my opinion it is the easiest one to go to.


Looking Towards the Belmont
The Belmont Stakes is typically won by horses that run either on the lead or within 5 lengths of the lead.  In fact 17 of the last 20 winners have fit this criteria.  This fits California Chrome perfectly.  Truthfully, we don't know if any of the horses will want to run the 1-1/2 miles in the Belmont.   But, the Belmont is rarely won by an off the pace horse, like Commanding Curve who was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.  In the Preakness, California Chrome was forced to make a long sustained run while repelling two foes and I think that show of gameness along with a running style that fits the Belmont Stakes makes him a real contender.

Ride On Curlin was making up ground slowly on California Chrome in the Preakness.  He'll need to be a little more forwardly placed in the Belmont if he expects to get by Chrome in the stretch.  Regardless, he is doing well and I expect him to be a major player.

Tonalist is the Peter Pan winner, which is a prep race at Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes.  His front running style will serve him well in the Belmont, but like all the other horses the 1-1/2 mile distance will be the major question.  Joel Rosario takes off Ride On Curlin to ride Tonalist, so that may say something.  However, a runner from the Peter Pan Stakes has won the Belmont Stakes just 1 time in the last 20 years.  The stats say he is up against it, but his recent form in the Peter Pan certainly makes the race interesting from a handicapping standpoint.

Looking forward to the Belmont!  The horse racing fan side of me says, "Bring it home Chrome!"