2014 Kentucky Derby Recap - A look at the Running Lines

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A Look at the Kentucky Derby Running Lines
Yesterday in my recap I wrote a segment about the slow time of this years Kentucky Derby.  But the slow time is in sharp contrast to what you would expect from the running lines.  The next paragraph is what I wrote yesterday about the slow time.  Then below that I have compared that to the running lines.

The running time of 2:03.66 for the 2014 Kentucky Derby was the slowest on a fast track in the last 20 years. On our par rating scale California Chrome would have earned just a 90, well below his Derby Prep races.  It will be interesting to hear if the speed figure guys think the track was playing slow.  Here is what I think about the time of this years race.  All of the 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 mile splits were slower than the 20 year average on a fast track.  And remember, California Chrome was not setting the pace, he was stalking it, which means he was choosing to go as slow as the leaders and obviously he had plenty left in the tank thru the stretch.  When they run that much slower thru the opening 3/4 miles, it makes it tougher to run a fast time.  What is a little odd is the closing 1/2 mile.  The 20 year average on a fast track for the Derby is 50.84, California Chrome ran it in 51.86 - a full second slower.  That closing 1/2 mile is the second slowest in the last 20 years, next to I'll Have Another in 2012.  But, the opening 3/4 mile time in 2012 was 2 seconds faster than this year.  In the end, California Chrome just had to run fast enough to beat the other horses and he has already proven he can run above par in his prep races.  It also wouldn't surprise me to hear the track was playing a little slow. 

However, I spent today analyzing the running lines.  This first thing that jumped out at me was 6 of the top 8 finishers were 5 lengths or more back at the 1/2 mile call.  This was also true for 3 of the top 4 finisher.  This seems more like a race with a pace collapse or partial pace collapse than one with a 3/4 mile pace of 1:11.80.
The more I look at the running lines the more I think the track was slow and tiring causing the speed to tire.  Let's take a look at the top 8 leaders and where they finished.

Top 8 Leaders at 1/2 mile call:
1st - Uncle Sigh - Finished 14th beaten 16 lengths
2nd - Chitu - Finished 9th beaten 8 lengths
3rd - California Chrome - Won
4th - Samraat - Finished 5th beaten 5-3/4 lengths
5th - Intense Holiday - Finished 12th beaten 9 lengths
6th - Vicar's in Trouble - Finished 19th beaten 39 lengths
7th - Tapiture - Finished 15th beaten 17-1/2 lengths
8th - Harry's Holiday - Finished 16th beaten 23-3/4 lengths

Now let's look at the Top 8 Finishers and see where they were at the 1/2 mile call.
1st - California Chrome - 3rd at 1/2 mile call by 1-1/2 lengths
2nd - Commanding Curve - 18th at 1/2 mile call by 11-1/2 lengths
3rd - Danza - 9th at 1/2 mile call by 5-1/4 lengths
4th - Wicked Strong - 12th at 1/2 mile call by 7 lengths
5th - Samraat - 4th at 1/2 mile call by 1-1/2 lengths
6th - Dance With Fate - 14th at 1/2 mile call by 8-/12 lengths
7th - Ride On Curlin - 19th at 1/2 mile call by 14 lengths
8th - Medal Count - 10th at 1/2 mile call by 5-3/4 lengths

Analysis:
Even though the pace appears slow, just California Chrome and Samraat were the only horses that were within 5 lengths of the pace at the 1/2 mile call and finished in the top 8.  To me this suggest the race was run more like one with a faster pace, thus causing a collapse.  There could be several reasons for this.  One would be that the track surface dried out in the lengthy time between the last dirt race and the Derby.  This could be especially true considering the high wind.  Secondly, the wind was a major factor in the slow time.  Remember, the wind was in the horses face in the stretch and they had to run that stretch twice - once from the start to the first turn and from the second turn to the wire.  I have run several marathons and I have never had a tail wind help me, but I have had a head wind hurt me by adding several minutes to my time.

Based on this information I think it shows the talent of California Chrome and that Samraat is a good horse as well worth a good look when he runs again.  Also, with the final time this slow, you would think several of the other horses who had shown better finishes in their preps should have easily ran past California Chrome.  That adds to my belief that the track surface and wind was a major player in the final time and race shape.  As always, it takes a while to digest all the information post Kentucky Derby.

Lots to consider as we look towards the Preakness!

Craig