Belmont Stakes Stats Guide
How does California Chrome fit the statistics for the Belmont Stakes? Get ready for the Belmont Stakes with our Belmont Stakes Stats Guide. Packed full of stats and analysis to help you include and exclude horses in the third leg of the Triple Crown.
Belmont Stakes Day Races 2-11
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets-
Pick 4 - Races 8-11 - $86 play over 5 tickets
$1 - 6 / 1 / 6,1 / 2 = $2
$0.50 - 6 / 1,4,9 / 6,1,4 / 2,5,9,11 = $18
$0.50 - 6,4,9,10 / 1 / 6,1,4 / 2,9,5,11 = $24
$0.50 - 6,4,9,10 / 1,4,9 / 6 / 2,5,9,11 = $24
$0.50 - 6,4,9,10 / 1,4,9 / 6,1,4 / 2 = $18
Race 2 - 1-1/16mi Easy Goer - Play
A - #7 Legend (3-1) - like the outside post, last work looks pretty good
B - #1 Life in Shambles (4-1)
C - #6 No Surrender (8-1)
D - #4 Kid Cruz (5/2)
E - #8 Pass the Coffee (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 7,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 7,1 / 7,1 = $4
$1 - 7,1 / 7,1,6,4,8 = $8
Race 3 - 1-1/2mi Brooklyn Handicap - Play
A - #2 Ground Transport (3-1) - looking for him to wire the field on an easy lead
B - #5 Ever Rider (5-1)
C - #4 Cat Burgler (5/2)
D - #3 Micromanage (7/2)
E - #8 Norumbega (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 2,5,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,5 / 2,5 = $6
$1 - 2,5 / 4,3,8 = $6
Race 4 - 6f Jaipur G3 TURF - Play
A - #8 Ben's Cat (5/2) - comes with a head of steam in the stretch, always like this horse
B - #10 Marchman (3-1) - good early speed
C - #11 Salto (5-1)
D - #6 Undrafted (5-1)
E - #9 Positive Side (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 8,10
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,10 / 8,10 / 11,6,9 = $6
$0.50 - 8,10 / 8,10,11,6,9 / 8,10,11,6,9 = $12
Race 5 - 7f Woody Stephens G2 - Action
A - #3 Havana (6-1) - like the price, second off layoff, offers some good value
B - #5 Coup de Grace (10-1)
C - #11 Social Inclusion (7/5) - on best day could drill this field, but I never like it when connections opt for a lesser race
D - #1 Bayern (5-1)
E - #6 Embellishing Bob (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 3,5,11,1,6
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 6 - 1 mi Acorn G1 - Action+
A - #3 Fiftyshadesofgold (8-1) - has improved, offers value if she can turn the tables on My Miss Sophia
B - #8 My Miss Sophia (6/5) - may just be the best horse in the field
C - #2 House Rules (12-1)
D - #7 Unbridled Forever (10-1)
E - #1 Fashion Plate (12-1)
Multi-Race Horses - 3,8,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3,8 / 3,8 = $4
$1 - 3,8 / 2,7,1 = $6
Race 7 - 1-1/16mi Odgen Phipps G1 - Play
A - #6 Princess of Sylmar (9/5) - I think she can get the best of Beholder here
B - #5 Beholder (7/5)
C - #Close Hatches (5/2)
Multi-Race Horses - 6,5
Suggest Plays:
Straight Exacta - 6 / 5
Race 8 - 1 mi Just A Game G1 TURF - Action
A - #6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) - 2nd out, should handle these if she shows up
B - #4 Somali Lemonade (8-1)
C - #9 Discreet Marq (5/2)
D - #10 Better Lucky (3-1)
E - #5 Coffee Clique (10-1)
Multi-Race Horses - A-6, B-4,9,10
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 9 - 1mi Met Mile G1 - Play
A - #1 Palace Malice (8/5) - on best day he is a cut above these, post shouldn't be an issue
B - #4 Goldencents (10-1) - if he shows up it could be a serious race, value
C - #9 Normandy Invasion (5-1)
D - #5 Moreno (10-1)
E - #13 Shakin It Up (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses - A-1, B-4,9
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 1 / 4,9 / 4,9 = $4
$1 - 1,4 / 1,4 / 9,5,13 = $6
$0.50 - 1,4 / 1,4,9,5,13 / 1,4,5,9,13 = $12
Race 10 - 1-1/4mi Manhattan G1 TURF - Play
A - #6 Seek Again (3-1) - almost beat Wise Dan last out
B - #1 Imagining (7/2)
C - #4 Granduer (5-1)
D - #2 Hey Leroy (12-1)
E - #8 Real Solution (5-1)
Multi-Race Horses - A-6,1, B-4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 6,1 / 6,1 = $4
$1 - 6,1 / 6,1,4 = $4
Race 11 - 1-1/2mi Belmont Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 California Chrome (3/5) - Will need another clean break. Has been training well and just like in the Ky Derby and Preakness, he simply appears to be the best horse in the race on paper. Since 1919, horses that have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness have completed the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont 37% percent of the time. Roughly the same as post time favorites win everyday. We are due a Triple Crown winner and California Chrome has the right running style as 17 of the last 20 winners have run either on the lead or within 5 lengths of the lead. I definitely would not leave him off my tickets. Bring it home Chrome!
B - #5 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - To me this is the only horse that has put in a serious bid to test California Chrome which came in the Preakness. He closed extremely well in the Preakness and made up some good ground in the stretch, still hit was hard to tell if he could have actually run by California Chrome if given the chance. He can run much closer to the pace than he did in the Preakness, which would bode well for him in the Belmont. He's worked extremely well and is one of the contenders for a Triple Crown spoiler.
C - #9 Wicked Strong (6-1) - Finished strong in the Wood Memorial and had a good finish in the Ky Derby considering the trip. I'm not sure he can beat California Chrome, but give the improvement in the Wood Memorial and trip in the Ky Derby I'd hate for him to beat me. I'll use him on my tickets for sure.
D - #10 General a Rod (20-1) - Should have had a much better finish in the Preakness, but was stopped badly when Ria Antonia backed up on the 2nd turn. His trip in the Ky Derby wasn't much better. He has the right running style and has proven he is game. His workouts have been good and I think Rosie will give him a good ride. Looking for a nice effort here.
E - #11 Tonalist (8-1) - A lot of people are really high on this horse and he may very well prove his merit here. Still, Peter Pan horses have finished in the Belmont Stakes exacta just 1 time in the last 20 years. Horse that race on a loose lead on a wet track (as he did in the Peter Pan) rarely repeat their speed figure. He's lightly raced and his furthest race has been at 1-1/8 miles. The question I have been asking myself, "Is this the horse I want to use to beat California Chrome?" Especially, given some of the other battle tested horses in this field. I'm more inclined to look to boost my exotic bets by trying to get him off the board. Still, with the Peter Pan effort and lack of speed in here, I'll keep him on my exotic tickets. I imagine they'll try to put him on the lead and see how far he can go.
Longshots/Value Adds-
#8 Commissioner (20-1) - has a good Belmont pedigree that may land him in the exotics
#4 Commanding Curve (15-1) - may plod his way into the exotics
Multi-Race Horses - A-2, B-5,9,11
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2 / 5,9,10 / 5,9,10 = $6
$0.50 - 2 / 5,9,10,11 / 5,9,10,11 = 6
$0.50 - 2/ 5,9,10,11 / 6,4,1 = $12
$0.50 - 5,9,10,11 / 2 / 5,9,10,11,1,4 = $10
$1 - 5,9,10,11 / 5,9,10,11 = $12
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