Updated 2:30pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 1 - 6-1/2f sMSW TURF - Action
A - #10 Tribalist (3-1) - has posted a good worktab leading into his 1st out in 2014, pedigree says he should handle the turf ok
B - #5 Badasmywifeletsmeb (8-1) - horse has shown a lot of early speed and I'm sure they are removing the blinkers in an effort to even him out a little, class drops from open MSW to state-bred MSW
C - #3 Tribal Dude (4-1) - never crazy about career Md's, but the blinkers come off and he's got some good numbers sprinting on the turf. good exotics candidate.
D - #2 Bold Fantasy (7/2) - closed really well last time out, another one who takes a some class relief from MSW to state-bred.
E - #4 Table Twentyone (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 10,5,3
Suggest Plays:
Race 2 - 6-1/2f Clm - Action
A - #3 This Cat's Awesome (8-1) - takes a nice class drop from open 25K company to 12500N2L, could very well grab the lead in a paceless race and go gate to wire, the price doesn't hurt your feelings either
B - #2 Shining Son (3-1) - has some solid beyers for this group, was close 2 back against this same level, has some decent early speed
C - #8 Clubhouse Rock (10-1) - should be close to the pace and has had some trouble in last few starts
D - #1 Dehere Is Gone (7/2)
E - #5 Hope 'n Pray (4-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 3,2,8
Suggest Plays:
Race 3 - 1mi Md TURF - Action
A - #8 Nero's Promise (6-1) - drops from MSW to MC with a hint of early speed last out
B - #12 Humming Beethoven (9/2) - has shown she can close in her last two starts, just worried she'll get hung wide here
C - #2 Comealongwithme (4-1) - another MSW to MC class dropper
D - #7 Up the Alley (6-1) - no turf experience to look at, but trainer is 29% on 1st claims, adds blinkers and switches to the turf, exotics
E - #4 Kristinite (5-1) - another MSW to MC class dropper
Multi-Race Horses: 8,12,2,7
Suggest Plays:
Race 4 - 6f MSW - Action+
A - #2 Downton My Lady (5-1) - first time starter, but I like the 6/14 workout followed by easier one, trainer is 24% with 1st timers
B - #1 Summerofsixtythree (3-1) - another first timer with a workout pattern that is hard to ignore, look for her to go from the rail as the fast 6/6 work was from the gate
C - #3 Southern Sunshine (4-1) - has run ok, could grab a piece of the exotics
D - #8 Barbs Angel (6-1) - first timer with a good work pattern and trainer, draws Gary Stevens, too much to ignore, exotics
E - #9 Everlovin Woman (12-1) - exotics use, value
Multi-Race Horses: 2,1
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,1 / 2,1 = $4
$1 - 2,1 / 3,8,9 = $6
Race 5 - 1mi Royal Heroine G2 TURF - Action+
A - #6 Moone's My Name (9/2) - very consistent closer, will need to prove she can win at this level
B - #9 Kathleen's Rose (6-1) - will be on the front end in a race without much pace, she really likes the Sa turf, dangerous
C - #7 Habibi (6-1) - G1 winner from New Zealand, 1st out this year, should be interesting to see how she runs here
D - #3 Wishing Gate (5-1) - gets back to preferred distance and can close really well, should get a good trip
E - #10 Parranda (3-1) - fits here, but may get hung wide
Multi-Race Horses: 6,9,7
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 6,9 / 6,9 = $2
$1 - 6,9,7 / 6,9,7 = $6
$1 - 6,9 / 7,3,10 = $6
Race 6 - 7f Triple Bend G1 - Play
A - #4 Sahara Sky (8/5) - really likes this Sa course and on his best day should nail these, even with the scratch of Gladding there are still a few speed horses to give him some pace
B - #1 Declassify (5/2) - speed horse who will have his hand forced by the rail post position, will be trying to hold on in the stretch
C - #6 Cyclometer (5/2) - the other speed horse and has proven he can win off a duel
D - #2 Drill (8-1) - can run well at this distance, should mix it up late if he shows up, offers some exotic value
E - #7 Wine Police (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1,6
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4 / 1,6 / 1,6 = $6
$2 - 1,6 / 4 / 1,6 = $4
$1 - 4 / 1,6 / 1,6,2,7 = $6
$1 - 4 / 1,6,2,7 / 1,6 = $6
Race 7 - 1mi Senorita G3 TURF - Action
A - #2 Sheza Smoke Show (6-1) - likes the Sa course, has been improving and closes well
B - #8 Clenor (4-1) - 2nd out in 2014, good closer, look for a big effort on the stretch out
C - #5 Burning Arch (10-1) - offers some exotic value, but is still a Md, last out was on an extremely slow track, always like the presence of Smith
D - #6 Sushi Empire (6-1) - has closed well in the past and Nakatani doesn't hurt in that regard either, should get a good trip, needs a good effort
E - #9 Rovenna (9/2)
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8,5,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 8 - 1-1/4mi Gold Cup G1 - Action+
A - #1 Game On Dude (4/5) - on best day he wins for fun, does have another speed horse to his outside which is a concern, but again on his best day he is capable of a :46 and change 1/2 mile and dispatching of other speed, love the horse, but not sure about him here
B - #6 Majestic Harbor (12-1) - a closer that should get a good trip and offer some value
C - #4 Imperative (4-1) - did post a triple digit beyer at CT last out, another one with a shot if the two speed horses run themselves into the ground
D - #2 Fury Kapcori (9/2) - the other speed horse, hasn't run at this distance, not sure he can hold it agains "the dude"
E - #3 Clubhouse Ride (9/2) - knows what the backend of Game On Dude looks like better than another other horse in this race, exotics
Multi-Race Horses: 1,6,4
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1 / 6,4 / 6,4 = $6
$1 - 1 / 6,4 / 6,4,2,3 = $6
$1 - 6,4 / 1 / 6,4,2,3 = $6
Race 9 - 1mi OC TURF - Action+
A - #8 Heat Flash (9/2) - should get the pace he needs, good closer
B - #9 Snaps (4-1)
C - #3 A Red Tie Day (8-1)
D - #6 Back to Bako (5-1)
E - #4 Chelios (6-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 8,9,3
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,9,3 / 8,9,3 = $6
Race 10 - 6f OC - Action+
A - #1 American Pride (5/2) - definitely took a step fwd in 2014 debut, will need to work out a trip
B - #3 He's Had Enough (6-1) - is a 2013 triple crown trail horse who has posted a few good workouts, needs pace
C - #6 Parliamentarian (8-1)
D - #10 Celebrity Status (6-1)
E - #2 Whine for Wine (8-1)
Multi-Race Horses: 1,3,6
Suggest Plays:
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