Sunday, December 14, 2014
Away for the Winter
I'm taking my typical break from horse racing during the winter months. I'll be back in January in time for the Triple Crown Prep Races and the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Take care and Happy Holidays!
Monday, November 3, 2014
Our Par Ratings Crushed the BC Dirt Races
Last night I sat down and added up the results of my par ratings and the results are awesome.
Note - I only produced par ratings for 6 of the dirt races. I didn't feel like I had enough data to accurately give them on the turf races.
OM = Finished Out of the Money
BC Juvenile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #9 Carpe Deim 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #9 Carpe Diem 103 (2nd), #7 Texas Red 100 (1st), #6 Lucky Player 100 (OM)
#7 Texas Red paid $29.80 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $50.30
BC Dirt Mile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st), #2 Tapiture 103 (2nd)
#1 Goldencents paid $3.40 to win
$1 Exacta 1/9 paid $7.10
BC Distaff
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd), #2 Tiz Midnight 101 (OM), #9 Ria Antonia 101 (4th), #10 Untapable 100 (1st)
#10 Untapable paid $5.20 to win
$1 Exacta 10/7 paid $13.50
BC F&M Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
No winning bets.
BC Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM), #4 Secret Circle 102 (2nd), #13 Work All Week 102 (1st)
#13 Work All Week paid $40.20 to win
$1 Exacta 13/4 paid $122.70
BC Classic
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Bayern 108 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Bayern 108 (1st), #9 Toast of New York 106 (2nd), #12 Candy Boy 103 (OM), #13 California Chrome 101 (3rd)
#7 Bayern paid $14.20 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $124.90
$1 Trifecta 7/9/13 paid $1043.60
So here is where the rubber meets the road:
Had you placed at $2 win bet on the highest last race Par Rating to win in each race listed above you would have won 2 out of 6, #1 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (paid $3.40) and #7 Bayern in the Classic (paid $14.20). The cost would have been $14 with a total payout of $17.60 for a +26% ROI.
Had you placed a $2 win bet on any last race par rating that was par (100) or greater you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races. They were the Classic, Dirt Mile, Distaff, Juvenile and Sprint. The cost would have been $36 with a total payout of $92.80 for a +158% ROI.
Had you boxed any horse that ran par (100) or greater in a $1 Exacta box, you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races. It would have cost you $40 with a total payout of $318.50 for a +696% ROI.
In any of the races where there were at least 3 runners that ran par (100) or greater in their last race, had you boxed those horses in a $1 Trifecta box you would have cashed tickets in 1 out of 4 races (hit in the BC Classic). It would have cost you $60 with a total payout of $1043.60 for a +1639% ROI.
Very pleased with how my numbers turned out!
Craig
Note - I only produced par ratings for 6 of the dirt races. I didn't feel like I had enough data to accurately give them on the turf races.
OM = Finished Out of the Money
BC Juvenile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #9 Carpe Deim 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #9 Carpe Diem 103 (2nd), #7 Texas Red 100 (1st), #6 Lucky Player 100 (OM)
#7 Texas Red paid $29.80 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $50.30
BC Dirt Mile
Top Last Race Par Rating - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #1 Goldencents 104 (1st), #2 Tapiture 103 (2nd)
#1 Goldencents paid $3.40 to win
$1 Exacta 1/9 paid $7.10
BC Distaff
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Don't Tell Sophia 103 (2nd), #2 Tiz Midnight 101 (OM), #9 Ria Antonia 101 (4th), #10 Untapable 100 (1st)
#10 Untapable paid $5.20 to win
$1 Exacta 10/7 paid $13.50
BC F&M Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #5 Artemis Agrotera 102 (OM), #6 Leigh Court 102 (OM)
No winning bets.
BC Sprint
Top Last Race Par Rating - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #6 Rich Tapestry 104 (OM), #4 Secret Circle 102 (2nd), #13 Work All Week 102 (1st)
#13 Work All Week paid $40.20 to win
$1 Exacta 13/4 paid $122.70
BC Classic
Top Last Race Par Rating - #7 Bayern 108 (1st)
Runner that ran above Par in their Last Race - #7 Bayern 108 (1st), #9 Toast of New York 106 (2nd), #12 Candy Boy 103 (OM), #13 California Chrome 101 (3rd)
#7 Bayern paid $14.20 to win
$1 Exacta 7/9 paid $124.90
$1 Trifecta 7/9/13 paid $1043.60
So here is where the rubber meets the road:
Had you placed at $2 win bet on the highest last race Par Rating to win in each race listed above you would have won 2 out of 6, #1 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (paid $3.40) and #7 Bayern in the Classic (paid $14.20). The cost would have been $14 with a total payout of $17.60 for a +26% ROI.
Had you placed a $2 win bet on any last race par rating that was par (100) or greater you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races. They were the Classic, Dirt Mile, Distaff, Juvenile and Sprint. The cost would have been $36 with a total payout of $92.80 for a +158% ROI.
Had you boxed any horse that ran par (100) or greater in a $1 Exacta box, you would have cashed tickets in 5 out of 6 races. It would have cost you $40 with a total payout of $318.50 for a +696% ROI.
In any of the races where there were at least 3 runners that ran par (100) or greater in their last race, had you boxed those horses in a $1 Trifecta box you would have cashed tickets in 1 out of 4 races (hit in the BC Classic). It would have cost you $60 with a total payout of $1043.60 for a +1639% ROI.
Very pleased with how my numbers turned out!
Craig
Saturday, November 1, 2014
11/1 Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Saturday
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Let our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide help you handicap the races by showing you stats, trends and positive ROI plays over the last 20 years of Breeders' Cup races.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Updated 1:40pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Mulitrace Bets
Daily Double - Races 5,6
$2 - 3 / 3 $2
$2 - 3 / 3,6,7 = $6
$2 - 3,4,10 / 3 = $6
$2 - 3,4,10 / 3,6,7 = $18
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 3,4 / 3,5 / 5,10,2,11 = $8
$0.50 - 3,4,10 / 3,5,7 / 5,10,2,11 = $18
Pick 3 - Races 10,11,12
$0.50 - 12,6,8,1 / 2,5,4 / 13,6 = $12
$0.50 - 12,6,8,1 / 2,5,4 / 13,6,11,9 = $24
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies G1 - Action+
A - #5 Cristina's Journey (6-1) - has some early speed and caught the eyes of the clockers. Will need to move forward but recent sharp workouts suggest she is ready.
B - #2 Angela Renee (3-1) - won her last out with a nice figure a repeat of that effort could win here
C - #8 Puca (6-1) - finished strong in her latest workout, expect she is sitting on a big race. Needs a step forward to win, but that is not a stretch
D - #4 Conquest Eclipse (4-1) - was very happy while working, closed well last out while earning a nice figure, win chance
E - #11 Top Decile (10-1) - would add some value to exotics, but wonder how her off pace style will work with this group
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,8,4
Race Notes: Could be value in a bunch of mid priced horses. Several Exacta boxes may work well with the lack of a few clear cut horses.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,2,8 / 5,2,8 = $6
$1 - 5,2,4 / 5,2,4 = $6
$1 - 5,2,11 / 5,2,11 = $6
Race 5 - 1-1/4 miles Breeders' Cup F&M Turf G1 - Play
A - #3 Dank (5/2) - looking to repeat and appears to coming back to her form, which makes her extremely dangerous here, multiple G1 winner that ran well above par while winning this race last year
B - #4 Dayatthespa (8-1) - clocker report says he has never seen her better than in her latest workouts, will be up front trying to hold on in the stretch
C - #10 Stephanie's Kitten (3-1) - it's feast or famine with this horse, but would hate to get beat by her knowing she can turn in good performances, multiple G1 winner
D - #6 Fiesolana (8-1) - G1 winner looked sharp while blowing out, offers good value with a legitimate shot
E - #2 Just The Judge (5-1) - closes well and has 2 G1 wins, exotic use
Multi-Race Horses: 3,4,10
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3,4 / 3,4 = $4
$1 - 3,4 / 10,6,2,8 = $8
$1 - 10,6,2,8 / 3,4 = $8
Race 6 - 7f Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint G1 - Play
A - #3 Stonetastic (8-1) - Has looked great training and has some serious speed out of the gate. Is going after her first Grade 1 and her early foot will set her up as the one to catch. Top Selection.
B - #5 Artemis Agrotera (3-1) - Has won two Grade 1's and is 2 for 2 at this distance. Has some early speed and still manages to hang around at the end. Is 5 of 7 lifetime. Good win chance.
C - #7 Judy The Beauty (5/2) - Second last year to Groupie Doll and on her best day would take this field, but she'll have to prove it again today. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #6 Leigh Court (4-1) - Great race in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, she took over and pulled away in the stretch. But, she got a great pace setup that day and there are others in here with speed that can likely hang on. Exotics use.
E - #1 Sweet Reason (9/2) - Has two Grade 1 wins and runs well at this distance. Is 2 for 2 at this distance. Not sure her style fits for a win, but could definitely land in the exotics. Heard her last workout was ok, but not great. Underneath exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,5,7
Race Notes: Looks like the top 3 are the best in here with Stonetastic offering the best value.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,7 / 3,5,7 = $6
$1 - 3,5 / 3,5,7,6,1,9,10 = $12
Race 7 - 6-1/2f Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint G1 (Downhill) - Action+
A - #5 Ambitious Brew (12-1) - like what I've heard from the clockers and he owns a win over this course, like that Smith is riding as CA jockeys are familiar with how to ride this downhill course, lots of value
B - #10 Home Run Kitten (12-1) - has worked well and owns 2 wins on this downhill course, including his maiden win, is 4 for 6 on the Sa turf and always in the money, definite contender
C - #2 Silentio (8-1) - fits the profile of horses that like this downhill course, that is milers that are cutting back. Don't forget this guy was just 1-1/2 lengths behind Wise Dan in the turf mile last year. Would not be a surprise winner.
D - #11 Undrafted (8-1) - is drawn well, has a top rider and has the right style, exotics use
E - #13 Casper Netscher (10-1) - another horse that is drawn will with the right style for this course, exotics use
Multi-Race Horses: 5,10,2,11
Race Notes: Several horses could win this, but it is important that the inside post position can be a hindrance as horses collapse over crossing the dirt as they straighten out. Lots of value here.
Suggest Plays:
With odds that high, Win bets on the top 3 - #5, #10, #2
Race 8 - 1-1/16 mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 - Action+
A - #9 Carpe Diem (4-1) - After wrestling between Calculator, Souper Colossal and Daredevil, I landed on Carpe Diem as my top selection. His last race at Keeneland was better than the speed figure shows and he drew off well clear of the field. He fits several stat categories with high percentage winners. There are a few others in here he'll have to deal with, but I think he has an excellent chance - Top Selection.
B - #8 Souper Colossal (12-1) - Have heard several good reports about how this horse is working and galloping in the mornings. He needs a step forward, but those reports suggest he's ready to take that step. Win chance, exotics definite.
C - #12 Daredevil (7/2) - Would have liked this horse as a win candidate if he wasn't parked so far outside. He is likely to be favored and taking a shot against him the Exacta pool could pay nicely. Plus, he has only run on a wet track and only at Belmont. Will he like a dry track as much and away from Belmont? There are several questions he must answer. With that said, he was a dominate winner of the Champagne, has shown no signs of regression off that effort and he fits several high percentage stats. Going to try to beat him in the win category and possibly in the Exacta. Small win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #6 Lucky Player (30-1) - This horse has value written all over him. First, his sire Lookin at Lucky was 2nd by a neck in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and then he went on to win divisional honors as a 3 year old after winning several races that included the Preakness and the Haskell. When I watched the replay of the Iroquois Stakes, the way Lucky Player won by fighting off multiple challengers in the stretch was very reminiscent of his sires 2010 Preakness win. Not sure he can win, but to me he screams exotic value.
E - #13 Upstart (8-1) - bad post, but may best rest, exotics use
Scratched Selections: #1 Calculator
Multi-Race Horses: 9,8,1
Race Notes: Trying to beat Daredevil considering his bad post and only races have been in the slop at Belmont.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,8,12 / 9,8,12 = $6
$1 - 9,8,12 / 9,8,12,6,13 = $12
Race 9 - 1-1/2 mile Breeders' Cup Turf G1 - Action
A - #1 Telescope (4-1) - several Euro handicappers really like this horse and is has been 100% in the money, plus the clockers like him, but he has yet to take down a G1
B - #4 Brown Panther (8-1) - a G1 winner that has run against some stiff competition, good win chance
C - #12 Main Sequence (6-1) - has won 3 G1 races in a row for trainer Graham Motion, but still maybe flying under the radar, win chance if everything breaks right, definite exotics use
D - #7 Flintshire (7/2) - fits based on class, exotics use
E - #3 Imagining (12-1) - value for a horse that has been in the Exacta 13 out of 19 starts, speed horses typically don't win the BC Turf, but if they forget about him up front he has the ability to take the all the way, regardless he offers value in the exotics
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4,12,7,3
Race Notes: The top 3 look solid, but Flintshire and Imagining do have a win chance.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,4,12 / 1,4,12,7,3 = $12
Race 10 - 6f Breeders' Cup Sprint G1 - Action +
A - #12 Fast Anna (12-1) - Has been burning up the track in his workouts, impressing several clockers and onlookers. He could be the speed of the speed and find himself all alone upfront after just a few jumps from the gate. In a big sprint race like this, I like a horse that has some really good speed and no doubt he fits the bill. Looking for him to out run them from the gate and head straight for the wire while running them off their feet. Pace duel would be the only downside, but this new surface has been kind to speed. Top Selection.
B - #6 Rich Tapestry (5-1) - Gobbled up ground last out to get the best of Goldencents, (who would probably be favored if he was running in this race). He's 4 for 5 at this distance and I heard his latest workout was good. Excellent win chance.
C - #8 Palace (6-1) - A consistent closer and if there are several horses that challenge for the lead he might find himself able to run down tiring horses. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #11 Bakken (10-1) - Seems to be coming into this race in good form. Last two races were pretty good, though they were against much lesser competition. Small win shot, definite exotics use.
E - #4 Secret Circle (9/2) - Defending champion returns to defend his title. He's worked well and I heard his gallop out was strong. He is 4 for 6 at this distance. But, Rich Tapestry inhaled him in the stretch last out. Not sure he can go back to back, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 12,6,8
Race Notes: With the sharp workouts, I doubt Fast Anna will be 12-1, that would be some serious value!
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 12,6,8 / 12,6 = $4
$1 - 12,6 / 12,6,8,11,4 = $8
Race 11 - 1 mile Breeders' Cup Turf Mile G1 - Action+
A - #2 Obviously (8-1) - I'm hoping they forget about this horse that is 8 for 12 at this distance, he'll be on the lead and if they let him get loose he can be really dangerous at a price
B - #5 Toronado (5/2) - Euro is a multiple G1 winner and a definite contender
C - #4 Mustajeeb (6-1) - has run some good races and is flying under the radar, win/exotics use
D - #12 Seek Again (6-1) - G1 winner is 50% on the turf, will be trying to run them down in the stretch, exotics use
E - #11 Sayaad (30-1) - was just 1-1/4 lengths behind a game Wise Dan in the Shadwell last out, may get first run on leaders at a big price, exotics booster
Multi-Race Horses: 2,5,4
Race Notes: Several mid price horses may provide lots of value, esp. if Toronado doesn't fire.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,5,4 / 2,5,4,12,11 = $12
Race 12 - 1-1/4 miles Breeders' Cup Classic G1 - Play
A - #13 California Chrome (4-1) - Immediately following the Pennsylvania Derby I thought California Chrome came into that race one race short of what he needed and I didn't like he's chances in the BC Classic. For the next few weeks I had him has my 4th or 5th choice in the Classic. But then I started hearing really good reports, including one clocker who I respect that said he looks better now than during the Triple Crown. He's been full of energy and his connections seem very loose and happy about how he is coming into this race, which is in contrast to comments Art Sherman made before the Belmont. This tells me he has rounded back into form and could be sitting on a huge race. In the last few weeks I have slowly moved him up the ladder and tried to find every way to come up with a different top selection. But, if he is in top form he'll be tough to beat. He figures to get first run on the leaders, which means Shared Belief and Tonalist will have to get to him in the stretch. I'd rather be in front in the stretch with a good horse than have to run one down to win. Top Selection.
B - #6 Shared Belief (9/5) - Hard to knock a horse that is undefeated in 7 starts and is only a 3 year old with 2 wins over older horses already. He was very wide throughout the Awesome Again, but still put on his game face to run down Fed Biz who had a perfect trip along the rail. It's possible that he may not like the dirt as well as synthetic, but it is also possible that he would have won the Awesome Again by open lengths had he not been forced to run 4-5 wide throughout the entire race. Has a some minor questions to answer, but he brings the goods every time he races and there is no reason to think he want do the same here. Good win chance, definite exotics horse.
C - #11 Tonalist (5-1) - 3 of his 4 wins have come at Belmont Park, so the question is whether he can carry that form to Santa Anita. He was not able to do it this summer at Saratoga, but he's matured some since then so this could be a different ball game. He'll have no problem with the 1-1/4 mile distance and if he can get a clear look at the finish line in the stretch he could be dangerous. Good win shot, definite exotics use.
D - #9 Toast of New York (12-1) - Could be a little bit of a question mark, but I think he'll handle the dirt just fine. I'm not sure he is better than Shared Belief or California Chrome, but he is a definite contender at a good price.
E - #8 Zivo (15-1) - Is doing very well in the mornings. Not sure his style will work well as a win candidate, but he very well close into the exotics and offer some value. Exotics use.
Exotic Use for Trifecta's / Superfecta's:
#2 Cigar Street - Another horse that has made a good impression on the clockers. He's taking a big class jump and he figures to sit just behind the speed. Will need a big step forward to win, but exotics are possible where he would offer some value. Underneath exotics use.
#1 Prayer For Relief (30-1) - Is 21 out of 33 lifetime in the Trifecta. Have heard great things about how he is training leading up to the race. Romans said he should run the best race of his career. Not sure that is good enough to win, but he could plod along into exotics and give them a huge boost. Don't see him winning, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 13,6,11,9
Race Notes: Tried not to get too cute, the top horses in here seem the best of this bunch.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 13,6,11 / 13,6,11 = $6
$1 - 13,6,9 / 13,6,9 = $6
$1 - 13,6 / 13,6,8,2,1 = $8
$1 - 11,9 / 11,9 = $4
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Let our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide help you handicap the races by showing you stats, trends and positive ROI plays over the last 20 years of Breeders' Cup races.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Updated 1:40pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Mulitrace Bets
Daily Double - Races 5,6
$2 - 3 / 3 $2
$2 - 3 / 3,6,7 = $6
$2 - 3,4,10 / 3 = $6
$2 - 3,4,10 / 3,6,7 = $18
Pick 3 - Races 5,6,7
$0.50 - 3,4 / 3,5 / 5,10,2,11 = $8
$0.50 - 3,4,10 / 3,5,7 / 5,10,2,11 = $18
Pick 3 - Races 10,11,12
$0.50 - 12,6,8,1 / 2,5,4 / 13,6 = $12
$0.50 - 12,6,8,1 / 2,5,4 / 13,6,11,9 = $24
Race 4 - 1-1/16 miles Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies G1 - Action+
A - #5 Cristina's Journey (6-1) - has some early speed and caught the eyes of the clockers. Will need to move forward but recent sharp workouts suggest she is ready.
B - #2 Angela Renee (3-1) - won her last out with a nice figure a repeat of that effort could win here
C - #8 Puca (6-1) - finished strong in her latest workout, expect she is sitting on a big race. Needs a step forward to win, but that is not a stretch
D - #4 Conquest Eclipse (4-1) - was very happy while working, closed well last out while earning a nice figure, win chance
E - #11 Top Decile (10-1) - would add some value to exotics, but wonder how her off pace style will work with this group
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,8,4
Race Notes: Could be value in a bunch of mid priced horses. Several Exacta boxes may work well with the lack of a few clear cut horses.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,2,8 / 5,2,8 = $6
$1 - 5,2,4 / 5,2,4 = $6
$1 - 5,2,11 / 5,2,11 = $6
Race 5 - 1-1/4 miles Breeders' Cup F&M Turf G1 - Play
A - #3 Dank (5/2) - looking to repeat and appears to coming back to her form, which makes her extremely dangerous here, multiple G1 winner that ran well above par while winning this race last year
B - #4 Dayatthespa (8-1) - clocker report says he has never seen her better than in her latest workouts, will be up front trying to hold on in the stretch
C - #10 Stephanie's Kitten (3-1) - it's feast or famine with this horse, but would hate to get beat by her knowing she can turn in good performances, multiple G1 winner
D - #6 Fiesolana (8-1) - G1 winner looked sharp while blowing out, offers good value with a legitimate shot
E - #2 Just The Judge (5-1) - closes well and has 2 G1 wins, exotic use
Multi-Race Horses: 3,4,10
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 3,4 / 3,4 = $4
$1 - 3,4 / 10,6,2,8 = $8
$1 - 10,6,2,8 / 3,4 = $8
Race 6 - 7f Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint G1 - Play
A - #3 Stonetastic (8-1) - Has looked great training and has some serious speed out of the gate. Is going after her first Grade 1 and her early foot will set her up as the one to catch. Top Selection.
B - #5 Artemis Agrotera (3-1) - Has won two Grade 1's and is 2 for 2 at this distance. Has some early speed and still manages to hang around at the end. Is 5 of 7 lifetime. Good win chance.
C - #7 Judy The Beauty (5/2) - Second last year to Groupie Doll and on her best day would take this field, but she'll have to prove it again today. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #6 Leigh Court (4-1) - Great race in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, she took over and pulled away in the stretch. But, she got a great pace setup that day and there are others in here with speed that can likely hang on. Exotics use.
E - #1 Sweet Reason (9/2) - Has two Grade 1 wins and runs well at this distance. Is 2 for 2 at this distance. Not sure her style fits for a win, but could definitely land in the exotics. Heard her last workout was ok, but not great. Underneath exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,5,7
Race Notes: Looks like the top 3 are the best in here with Stonetastic offering the best value.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,5,7 / 3,5,7 = $6
$1 - 3,5 / 3,5,7,6,1,9,10 = $12
Race 7 - 6-1/2f Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint G1 (Downhill) - Action+
A - #5 Ambitious Brew (12-1) - like what I've heard from the clockers and he owns a win over this course, like that Smith is riding as CA jockeys are familiar with how to ride this downhill course, lots of value
B - #10 Home Run Kitten (12-1) - has worked well and owns 2 wins on this downhill course, including his maiden win, is 4 for 6 on the Sa turf and always in the money, definite contender
C - #2 Silentio (8-1) - fits the profile of horses that like this downhill course, that is milers that are cutting back. Don't forget this guy was just 1-1/2 lengths behind Wise Dan in the turf mile last year. Would not be a surprise winner.
D - #11 Undrafted (8-1) - is drawn well, has a top rider and has the right style, exotics use
E - #13 Casper Netscher (10-1) - another horse that is drawn will with the right style for this course, exotics use
Multi-Race Horses: 5,10,2,11
Race Notes: Several horses could win this, but it is important that the inside post position can be a hindrance as horses collapse over crossing the dirt as they straighten out. Lots of value here.
Suggest Plays:
With odds that high, Win bets on the top 3 - #5, #10, #2
Race 8 - 1-1/16 mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 - Action+
A - #9 Carpe Diem (4-1) - After wrestling between Calculator, Souper Colossal and Daredevil, I landed on Carpe Diem as my top selection. His last race at Keeneland was better than the speed figure shows and he drew off well clear of the field. He fits several stat categories with high percentage winners. There are a few others in here he'll have to deal with, but I think he has an excellent chance - Top Selection.
B - #8 Souper Colossal (12-1) - Have heard several good reports about how this horse is working and galloping in the mornings. He needs a step forward, but those reports suggest he's ready to take that step. Win chance, exotics definite.
C - #12 Daredevil (7/2) - Would have liked this horse as a win candidate if he wasn't parked so far outside. He is likely to be favored and taking a shot against him the Exacta pool could pay nicely. Plus, he has only run on a wet track and only at Belmont. Will he like a dry track as much and away from Belmont? There are several questions he must answer. With that said, he was a dominate winner of the Champagne, has shown no signs of regression off that effort and he fits several high percentage stats. Going to try to beat him in the win category and possibly in the Exacta. Small win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #6 Lucky Player (30-1) - This horse has value written all over him. First, his sire Lookin at Lucky was 2nd by a neck in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and then he went on to win divisional honors as a 3 year old after winning several races that included the Preakness and the Haskell. When I watched the replay of the Iroquois Stakes, the way Lucky Player won by fighting off multiple challengers in the stretch was very reminiscent of his sires 2010 Preakness win. Not sure he can win, but to me he screams exotic value.
E - #13 Upstart (8-1) - bad post, but may best rest, exotics use
Scratched Selections: #1 Calculator
Multi-Race Horses: 9,8,1
Race Notes: Trying to beat Daredevil considering his bad post and only races have been in the slop at Belmont.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,8,12 / 9,8,12 = $6
$1 - 9,8,12 / 9,8,12,6,13 = $12
Race 9 - 1-1/2 mile Breeders' Cup Turf G1 - Action
A - #1 Telescope (4-1) - several Euro handicappers really like this horse and is has been 100% in the money, plus the clockers like him, but he has yet to take down a G1
B - #4 Brown Panther (8-1) - a G1 winner that has run against some stiff competition, good win chance
C - #12 Main Sequence (6-1) - has won 3 G1 races in a row for trainer Graham Motion, but still maybe flying under the radar, win chance if everything breaks right, definite exotics use
D - #7 Flintshire (7/2) - fits based on class, exotics use
E - #3 Imagining (12-1) - value for a horse that has been in the Exacta 13 out of 19 starts, speed horses typically don't win the BC Turf, but if they forget about him up front he has the ability to take the all the way, regardless he offers value in the exotics
Multi-Race Horses: 1,4,12,7,3
Race Notes: The top 3 look solid, but Flintshire and Imagining do have a win chance.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,4,12 / 1,4,12,7,3 = $12
Race 10 - 6f Breeders' Cup Sprint G1 - Action +
A - #12 Fast Anna (12-1) - Has been burning up the track in his workouts, impressing several clockers and onlookers. He could be the speed of the speed and find himself all alone upfront after just a few jumps from the gate. In a big sprint race like this, I like a horse that has some really good speed and no doubt he fits the bill. Looking for him to out run them from the gate and head straight for the wire while running them off their feet. Pace duel would be the only downside, but this new surface has been kind to speed. Top Selection.
B - #6 Rich Tapestry (5-1) - Gobbled up ground last out to get the best of Goldencents, (who would probably be favored if he was running in this race). He's 4 for 5 at this distance and I heard his latest workout was good. Excellent win chance.
C - #8 Palace (6-1) - A consistent closer and if there are several horses that challenge for the lead he might find himself able to run down tiring horses. Win chance, definite exotics use.
D - #11 Bakken (10-1) - Seems to be coming into this race in good form. Last two races were pretty good, though they were against much lesser competition. Small win shot, definite exotics use.
E - #4 Secret Circle (9/2) - Defending champion returns to defend his title. He's worked well and I heard his gallop out was strong. He is 4 for 6 at this distance. But, Rich Tapestry inhaled him in the stretch last out. Not sure he can go back to back, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 12,6,8
Race Notes: With the sharp workouts, I doubt Fast Anna will be 12-1, that would be some serious value!
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 12,6,8 / 12,6 = $4
$1 - 12,6 / 12,6,8,11,4 = $8
Race 11 - 1 mile Breeders' Cup Turf Mile G1 - Action+
A - #2 Obviously (8-1) - I'm hoping they forget about this horse that is 8 for 12 at this distance, he'll be on the lead and if they let him get loose he can be really dangerous at a price
B - #5 Toronado (5/2) - Euro is a multiple G1 winner and a definite contender
C - #4 Mustajeeb (6-1) - has run some good races and is flying under the radar, win/exotics use
D - #12 Seek Again (6-1) - G1 winner is 50% on the turf, will be trying to run them down in the stretch, exotics use
E - #11 Sayaad (30-1) - was just 1-1/4 lengths behind a game Wise Dan in the Shadwell last out, may get first run on leaders at a big price, exotics booster
Multi-Race Horses: 2,5,4
Race Notes: Several mid price horses may provide lots of value, esp. if Toronado doesn't fire.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 2,5,4 / 2,5,4,12,11 = $12
Race 12 - 1-1/4 miles Breeders' Cup Classic G1 - Play
A - #13 California Chrome (4-1) - Immediately following the Pennsylvania Derby I thought California Chrome came into that race one race short of what he needed and I didn't like he's chances in the BC Classic. For the next few weeks I had him has my 4th or 5th choice in the Classic. But then I started hearing really good reports, including one clocker who I respect that said he looks better now than during the Triple Crown. He's been full of energy and his connections seem very loose and happy about how he is coming into this race, which is in contrast to comments Art Sherman made before the Belmont. This tells me he has rounded back into form and could be sitting on a huge race. In the last few weeks I have slowly moved him up the ladder and tried to find every way to come up with a different top selection. But, if he is in top form he'll be tough to beat. He figures to get first run on the leaders, which means Shared Belief and Tonalist will have to get to him in the stretch. I'd rather be in front in the stretch with a good horse than have to run one down to win. Top Selection.
B - #6 Shared Belief (9/5) - Hard to knock a horse that is undefeated in 7 starts and is only a 3 year old with 2 wins over older horses already. He was very wide throughout the Awesome Again, but still put on his game face to run down Fed Biz who had a perfect trip along the rail. It's possible that he may not like the dirt as well as synthetic, but it is also possible that he would have won the Awesome Again by open lengths had he not been forced to run 4-5 wide throughout the entire race. Has a some minor questions to answer, but he brings the goods every time he races and there is no reason to think he want do the same here. Good win chance, definite exotics horse.
C - #11 Tonalist (5-1) - 3 of his 4 wins have come at Belmont Park, so the question is whether he can carry that form to Santa Anita. He was not able to do it this summer at Saratoga, but he's matured some since then so this could be a different ball game. He'll have no problem with the 1-1/4 mile distance and if he can get a clear look at the finish line in the stretch he could be dangerous. Good win shot, definite exotics use.
D - #9 Toast of New York (12-1) - Could be a little bit of a question mark, but I think he'll handle the dirt just fine. I'm not sure he is better than Shared Belief or California Chrome, but he is a definite contender at a good price.
E - #8 Zivo (15-1) - Is doing very well in the mornings. Not sure his style will work well as a win candidate, but he very well close into the exotics and offer some value. Exotics use.
Exotic Use for Trifecta's / Superfecta's:
#2 Cigar Street - Another horse that has made a good impression on the clockers. He's taking a big class jump and he figures to sit just behind the speed. Will need a big step forward to win, but exotics are possible where he would offer some value. Underneath exotics use.
#1 Prayer For Relief (30-1) - Is 21 out of 33 lifetime in the Trifecta. Have heard great things about how he is training leading up to the race. Romans said he should run the best race of his career. Not sure that is good enough to win, but he could plod along into exotics and give them a huge boost. Don't see him winning, but definite exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 13,6,11,9
Race Notes: Tried not to get too cute, the top horses in here seem the best of this bunch.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 13,6,11 / 13,6,11 = $6
$1 - 13,6,9 / 13,6,9 = $6
$1 - 13,6 / 13,6,8,2,1 = $8
$1 - 11,9 / 11,9 = $4
Thursday, October 30, 2014
10/31 Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Friday
Card Totals
Winners - 2 out of 4 - $8 / $12 ($2 win bet) +50% ROI
List Plays - $139.50 / $184.20 +32% ROI
Good day, but was very chalky, needed some bigger prices underneath.
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Let our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide help you handicap the races by showing you stats, trends and positive ROI plays over the last 20 years of Breeders' Cup races.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Updated 3:52pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets:
Daily Double - Races 7,8
$2 - 9,1 / 4,6 = $8 - HIT $9.80
$2 - 9,1,8 / 4,6,2 = $18 - HIT $9.80
Daily Double - Races 8,9
$2 - 4,6 / 10,2 = $4 - HIT $19.80
$2 - 4 / 10,2,7,9 = $8 - HIT $19.80
$2 - 4,6,2 / 10,2 = $12 - HIT $19.80
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$.50 - 9,1 / 4,6 / 10,2,11 = $6 - HIT $11.20
$.50 - 9,1,8 / 4,6,2 / 10,2,9,7,11 = $22.50 - HIT $11.20
Distaff / Classic Double
$1 - 10,7,2 / 13,6,11 = $9
$1 - 10,7,2,9,3,11 / 13,6 = $12
$1 - 10,7,2 / 13,6,11,9 = $12
Race 6 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf G1 - Action
A - #7 War Envoy (9/2) - should run a solid race and was only beaten 1-1/4 lengths last out in a G1 at Lch.
B - #11 Imperia (6-1) - he can really close in the stretch, but will need to work out a trip not to get hung wide at this distance.
C - #5 Hootenanny (3-1) - this will be the first time he has run 2 turns, beaten just 1/2 length in a G1 last out. - Winner
D - #4 Commemorative (8-1) - if he can put it together going around the turns he could be a likely winner and at a good price too!
E - #10 Startup Nation (12-1) - moved up with scratch of Aktabantay
Multi-Race Horses: 7,11,5,4,9
Race Notes: No one absolutely jumps off the page at me, anyone of several horses could win it. Exacta should pay nicely with so many options.
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 7 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #9 Tapiture (6-1) - Though just one horse has won the BC Dirt Mile from outside of post #8, I think Tapiture might sit a good trip on the outside, though he could be wide into the first turn. I really like the way Asmussen pulled back after the Ky Derby and Tapiture has steadily moved forward since then. He ran a really good second to Bayern when the latter ran out of his skin in the Pennsylvania Derby. Looking for a big effort - Top selection if things don't go perfect for Goldencents. - Second
B - #1 Goldencents (6/5) - Will take a lot of money at the windows. I don't mind the inside post position for his style and configuration of this 2 turn mile. His par ratings put him on top. No doubt, he loves this distance and the SA course, plus I've heard is 10/24 workout looked good. However, the post time favorite for the BC Dirt Mile has never finished in the Exacta. Plus there is some other speed in this race that he'll have to deal with early. Expecting him to run very well and he is a strong win contender. But, with such strong stats against him and the presence of other speed I may try to beat him in the win category. - Winner
C - #8 Fed Biz (7/2) - Should be forwardly placed, but his best numbers lately have come on an artificial surface. Still, he's 50% at this distance and should be forwardly placed. He ran a very strong second just getting edged by Shared Belief in the 1-1/8 mile Awesome Again. Looking for a big effort - top contender.
D - #3 Vicar's In Trouble (12-1) - 3 year old who has some early speed. This is the shortest distance he has raced this year and I'm expecting him to run well and hang around late for the exotics. Exotics value.
E - #4 Pants On Fire (6-1) - He's 50% at this distance and 6 out of 8 in the money. His last 3 races have been pretty good, but he seems a cut below the big 3 in here. Exotics use. - Third
Multi-Race Horses: 9,1,8
Race Notes: It is very possible that Goldencents could be the most likely winner all weekend. He's drawn well for his style and people are buzzing about the way he looks on the track. Still, the stats in the BC Dirt Mile have been strongly against the post time favorite and Tapiture is a nice horse if things don't go according to plan for Goldencents. Feb Biz's 2nd in the Awesome Again to Shared Belief has to count for something, so I wouldn't leave him out. Also, remember that at Santa Anita a 1 mile dirt race is run around 2 turns, so I prefer horses with proven 2 turn ability.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,1,8 / 9,1,8 = $6 - HIT $7.10
$1 - 9,8,1 / 9,1,8,3,4 = $12 - HIT $7.10
Race 8 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf G1 - Action+
A - #4 Lady Eli (6-1) - good post for this turf course configuration, have heard great things about the way she has looked on the track while training, closes well, 2 for 2 on the turf - Winner $6.80
B - #6 Sivoliere (12-1) - should really like the distance and has look well on the track in the mornings, good chance
C - #2 Osaila (5-1) - beaten just 1-1/4 lengths in a G1 two back and has run well all year - Third
D - #5 Isabella Sings (12-1) - exotics value
E - #3 Sunset Glow (7/2) - exotics use - Second
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6,2
Race Notes: I feel like the winner is likely amongst the top 3, once you get past them the race seems wide open. Good Exacta race.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,6,2 / 4,6,2 = $6
$1 - 4,6 / 2,5,3,9,11 = $10 - HIT $17.50
Race 9 - 1-1/8 Miles - Breeders' Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #10 Untapable (5/2) - If she runs her A race she'll be tough to beat. She was dominate this spring, but couldn't beat the boys in the Haskell. The she came back with a nice win the Cotillion at Parx. I've heard great things from the clockers. Again, her best form would make her tough to beat and the post position keeps her outside and in the clear. Top Selection. - Winner $5.20
B - #2 Tiz Midnight (10-1) - Re-rallied last out to run a very nice second to Beholder in the Zenyatta. Seems to be moving forward and a Baffert runner with speed is always dangerous. Win contender.
C - #7 Don't Tell Sophia (5-1) - She gobbled up ground in the stretch to win last out in the Spinster. Pace will help her, but if the course plays to speed it could hurt. She's 2 for 3 at this distance. Looking for a big effort. Win chance, definite exotics use. - Second
D - #9 Ria Antonia (15-1) - The move to run her in the Preakness was a bad move, so draw a line through that race. She won the Juvenile Fillies last year through a DQ. In her last out she seems to have gotten back on track having put in a pace pressing effort that saw her take the lead in the stretch only to be caught by Don't Tell Sophia. Lots of value if she steps forward. Exotics use.
E - #3 Iotapa (6-1) - Has won 2 grade 1 races this year. Had some trouble in her last out when she missed the break and was behind horses before getting bumped in the stretch. Still, she didn't make up a lot of ground after the trouble and Tiz Midnight still got the best of her. Exotics use. - Third
Exotics Use:
#11 Close Hatches (3-1) - Based on her last out and some clocker notes, getting her out of the exotics will definitely boost prices, but if she returns to her form she'll be tough here and will very likely end up in the exotics if not win.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,7,2,9
Race Notes: With Close Hatches running such a poor race last out, I don't want to lean heavily on her and in fact would like to get her out of the exotics. She may rebound to win this race, but after what appears to be a form reversal I want a horse to prove it again, especially a female horse. If Untapable is in top form she'll be hard to deny, espescially with outside post position which will give her clear sailing.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,2,7 / 10,2,7 = $6 - HIT $13.50
$1 - 10,2,7 / 9,3,11 = $9
$.50 - 10,2,7 / 10,2,7 / 10,2,7,9,3,11 = $12 - HIT $37.60
Good Luck! As always, it should be two fantastic days of racing!
Winners - 2 out of 4 - $8 / $12 ($2 win bet) +50% ROI
List Plays - $139.50 / $184.20 +32% ROI
Good day, but was very chalky, needed some bigger prices underneath.
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Let our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide help you handicap the races by showing you stats, trends and positive ROI plays over the last 20 years of Breeders' Cup races.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Updated 3:52pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets:
Daily Double - Races 7,8
$2 - 9,1 / 4,6 = $8 - HIT $9.80
$2 - 9,1,8 / 4,6,2 = $18 - HIT $9.80
Daily Double - Races 8,9
$2 - 4,6 / 10,2 = $4 - HIT $19.80
$2 - 4 / 10,2,7,9 = $8 - HIT $19.80
$2 - 4,6,2 / 10,2 = $12 - HIT $19.80
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$.50 - 9,1 / 4,6 / 10,2,11 = $6 - HIT $11.20
$.50 - 9,1,8 / 4,6,2 / 10,2,9,7,11 = $22.50 - HIT $11.20
Distaff / Classic Double
$1 - 10,7,2 / 13,6,11 = $9
$1 - 10,7,2,9,3,11 / 13,6 = $12
$1 - 10,7,2 / 13,6,11,9 = $12
Race 6 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf G1 - Action
A - #7 War Envoy (9/2) - should run a solid race and was only beaten 1-1/4 lengths last out in a G1 at Lch.
B - #11 Imperia (6-1) - he can really close in the stretch, but will need to work out a trip not to get hung wide at this distance.
C - #5 Hootenanny (3-1) - this will be the first time he has run 2 turns, beaten just 1/2 length in a G1 last out. - Winner
D - #4 Commemorative (8-1) - if he can put it together going around the turns he could be a likely winner and at a good price too!
E - #10 Startup Nation (12-1) - moved up with scratch of Aktabantay
Multi-Race Horses: 7,11,5,4,9
Race Notes: No one absolutely jumps off the page at me, anyone of several horses could win it. Exacta should pay nicely with so many options.
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 7 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #9 Tapiture (6-1) - Though just one horse has won the BC Dirt Mile from outside of post #8, I think Tapiture might sit a good trip on the outside, though he could be wide into the first turn. I really like the way Asmussen pulled back after the Ky Derby and Tapiture has steadily moved forward since then. He ran a really good second to Bayern when the latter ran out of his skin in the Pennsylvania Derby. Looking for a big effort - Top selection if things don't go perfect for Goldencents. - Second
B - #1 Goldencents (6/5) - Will take a lot of money at the windows. I don't mind the inside post position for his style and configuration of this 2 turn mile. His par ratings put him on top. No doubt, he loves this distance and the SA course, plus I've heard is 10/24 workout looked good. However, the post time favorite for the BC Dirt Mile has never finished in the Exacta. Plus there is some other speed in this race that he'll have to deal with early. Expecting him to run very well and he is a strong win contender. But, with such strong stats against him and the presence of other speed I may try to beat him in the win category. - Winner
C - #8 Fed Biz (7/2) - Should be forwardly placed, but his best numbers lately have come on an artificial surface. Still, he's 50% at this distance and should be forwardly placed. He ran a very strong second just getting edged by Shared Belief in the 1-1/8 mile Awesome Again. Looking for a big effort - top contender.
D - #3 Vicar's In Trouble (12-1) - 3 year old who has some early speed. This is the shortest distance he has raced this year and I'm expecting him to run well and hang around late for the exotics. Exotics value.
E - #4 Pants On Fire (6-1) - He's 50% at this distance and 6 out of 8 in the money. His last 3 races have been pretty good, but he seems a cut below the big 3 in here. Exotics use. - Third
Multi-Race Horses: 9,1,8
Race Notes: It is very possible that Goldencents could be the most likely winner all weekend. He's drawn well for his style and people are buzzing about the way he looks on the track. Still, the stats in the BC Dirt Mile have been strongly against the post time favorite and Tapiture is a nice horse if things don't go according to plan for Goldencents. Feb Biz's 2nd in the Awesome Again to Shared Belief has to count for something, so I wouldn't leave him out. Also, remember that at Santa Anita a 1 mile dirt race is run around 2 turns, so I prefer horses with proven 2 turn ability.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,1,8 / 9,1,8 = $6 - HIT $7.10
$1 - 9,8,1 / 9,1,8,3,4 = $12 - HIT $7.10
Race 8 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf G1 - Action+
A - #4 Lady Eli (6-1) - good post for this turf course configuration, have heard great things about the way she has looked on the track while training, closes well, 2 for 2 on the turf - Winner $6.80
B - #6 Sivoliere (12-1) - should really like the distance and has look well on the track in the mornings, good chance
C - #2 Osaila (5-1) - beaten just 1-1/4 lengths in a G1 two back and has run well all year - Third
D - #5 Isabella Sings (12-1) - exotics value
E - #3 Sunset Glow (7/2) - exotics use - Second
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6,2
Race Notes: I feel like the winner is likely amongst the top 3, once you get past them the race seems wide open. Good Exacta race.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,6,2 / 4,6,2 = $6
$1 - 4,6 / 2,5,3,9,11 = $10 - HIT $17.50
Race 9 - 1-1/8 Miles - Breeders' Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #10 Untapable (5/2) - If she runs her A race she'll be tough to beat. She was dominate this spring, but couldn't beat the boys in the Haskell. The she came back with a nice win the Cotillion at Parx. I've heard great things from the clockers. Again, her best form would make her tough to beat and the post position keeps her outside and in the clear. Top Selection. - Winner $5.20
B - #2 Tiz Midnight (10-1) - Re-rallied last out to run a very nice second to Beholder in the Zenyatta. Seems to be moving forward and a Baffert runner with speed is always dangerous. Win contender.
C - #7 Don't Tell Sophia (5-1) - She gobbled up ground in the stretch to win last out in the Spinster. Pace will help her, but if the course plays to speed it could hurt. She's 2 for 3 at this distance. Looking for a big effort. Win chance, definite exotics use. - Second
D - #9 Ria Antonia (15-1) - The move to run her in the Preakness was a bad move, so draw a line through that race. She won the Juvenile Fillies last year through a DQ. In her last out she seems to have gotten back on track having put in a pace pressing effort that saw her take the lead in the stretch only to be caught by Don't Tell Sophia. Lots of value if she steps forward. Exotics use.
E - #3 Iotapa (6-1) - Has won 2 grade 1 races this year. Had some trouble in her last out when she missed the break and was behind horses before getting bumped in the stretch. Still, she didn't make up a lot of ground after the trouble and Tiz Midnight still got the best of her. Exotics use. - Third
Exotics Use:
#11 Close Hatches (3-1) - Based on her last out and some clocker notes, getting her out of the exotics will definitely boost prices, but if she returns to her form she'll be tough here and will very likely end up in the exotics if not win.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,7,2,9
Race Notes: With Close Hatches running such a poor race last out, I don't want to lean heavily on her and in fact would like to get her out of the exotics. She may rebound to win this race, but after what appears to be a form reversal I want a horse to prove it again, especially a female horse. If Untapable is in top form she'll be hard to deny, espescially with outside post position which will give her clear sailing.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,2,7 / 10,2,7 = $6 - HIT $13.50
$1 - 10,2,7 / 9,3,11 = $9
$.50 - 10,2,7 / 10,2,7 / 10,2,7,9,3,11 = $12 - HIT $37.60
Good Luck! As always, it should be two fantastic days of racing!
Saturday, October 25, 2014
10/25 Santa Anita - Races 1,3,6-8
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide - Now Available!
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Plays
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$1 - 7,5,4,6 / 5 / 8,6,7,4 = $16
$1 - 7,5,4 / 5,6 / 8,6,4 = $18
Race 1 - 5f sAlw - Play
A - #2 Lindz Winz (2-1) - should sit just behind the speed, hoping she can take over in the stretch
B - #1 Mahalo Princess (7/5) - the obvious horse on speed figures and record, not crazy about jockey
C - #4 Miss American Pie (8-1) - should be forwardly placed and comes out of claiming 8k open company
D - #3 Lust of Life (6-1) - comes from 20K open company, like the stalking style in this race, but doesn't need to be too far back.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,1 / 2,1 = $6
$1 - 2,1 / 2,1,4,3 = $6
Race 3 - 1 mile sAlw - Action+
A - #5 Awe Gee (6-1) - broke md over this course with a big step forward, hoping she can build off that
B - #3 Southern Echo (5-1) - may find herself on the lead, like the recent workout, additions of blinkers and Talamo
C - #2 Midnight Candy (5/2) - recent works look good and she has wins over this course and distance, could easily handle this field if she runs her best
D - #7 Shezapiranha (3-1) - exotics use
Multi-Race Horses: 5,3,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,3,2 / 5,3,2 = $6
$1 - 5,3 / 5,3,2,7 = $6
Race 6 - 6-1/2f OC Downhill TURF - Action
A - #7 Royal F J (4-1) - the ML odds are good for a horse that has beaten better class horses on this turf course, like the outside post
B - #5 Conquest Two Step (7/2) - takes a drop in class and we know Talamo rides this course well
C - #4 Maxx the Giant (9/2) - should sit just behind the pace, but will need to find a little more to win here
D - #6 Heat Flash (12-1) - exotic value
E - #9 U S Citizen (12-1) - exotic use
Multi-Race Horses: 7,5,4,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 7 - 6-1/2f OC - Play
A - #5 Kill Shot (5/2) - Seems primed here, two good long workouts, but this is his first out in 2014. The presence of Smith doesn't hurt. Looking for a big effort.
B - #6 True Ten (4-1) - like the worktab, gets some class relief from last SA race in Apr
C - #1 Night Badger (8-1) - has improving speed figures, but will need another improvement to gain the top spot here, exotics
D - #8 Justification (10-1) - off pace style may hurt, but may end up in the exotics
E - #3 Eddie's First (3-1) - exotic use
Multi-Race Horses: 5,6
Suggest Plays:
$3 = 5 / 6,1 = $6
$1 = 5 / 6,1,8,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 5 = $1
Race 8 - 1 mile Autumn Miss G3 TURF - Action
A - #8 Zindaya (6-1) - is the speed of the race, would like to see her wire here
B - #6 Diversy Harbor (9/2) - class drops from G1, running style is my only concern, excellent chance
C - #7 Alexis Tangier (7/2) - like the style with figures to sit just off the pace an she has run well at Sa, is stretching out here
D - #5 Lexie Lou (5/2) - is a deserving favorite if she can regain/transfer the form that saw her dominate at Woodbine in the summer, trying to beat here *I'll always have a rooting interest her, this was the name of my first retriever
E - #4 Famous Alice (12-1) - exotic value
Multi-Race Horses: 8,6,7,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,7,6 / 8,7,6 = $6
$1 - 8,6,5 / 8,6,5 = $6
$1 - 6,7,5 / 6,7,5 = $6
Good Luck!
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Pre Scratches.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Plays
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$1 - 7,5,4,6 / 5 / 8,6,7,4 = $16
$1 - 7,5,4 / 5,6 / 8,6,4 = $18
Race 1 - 5f sAlw - Play
A - #2 Lindz Winz (2-1) - should sit just behind the speed, hoping she can take over in the stretch
B - #1 Mahalo Princess (7/5) - the obvious horse on speed figures and record, not crazy about jockey
C - #4 Miss American Pie (8-1) - should be forwardly placed and comes out of claiming 8k open company
D - #3 Lust of Life (6-1) - comes from 20K open company, like the stalking style in this race, but doesn't need to be too far back.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,1 / 2,1 = $6
$1 - 2,1 / 2,1,4,3 = $6
Race 3 - 1 mile sAlw - Action+
A - #5 Awe Gee (6-1) - broke md over this course with a big step forward, hoping she can build off that
B - #3 Southern Echo (5-1) - may find herself on the lead, like the recent workout, additions of blinkers and Talamo
C - #2 Midnight Candy (5/2) - recent works look good and she has wins over this course and distance, could easily handle this field if she runs her best
D - #7 Shezapiranha (3-1) - exotics use
Multi-Race Horses: 5,3,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 5,3,2 / 5,3,2 = $6
$1 - 5,3 / 5,3,2,7 = $6
Race 6 - 6-1/2f OC Downhill TURF - Action
A - #7 Royal F J (4-1) - the ML odds are good for a horse that has beaten better class horses on this turf course, like the outside post
B - #5 Conquest Two Step (7/2) - takes a drop in class and we know Talamo rides this course well
C - #4 Maxx the Giant (9/2) - should sit just behind the pace, but will need to find a little more to win here
D - #6 Heat Flash (12-1) - exotic value
E - #9 U S Citizen (12-1) - exotic use
Multi-Race Horses: 7,5,4,6
Suggest Plays:
Race 7 - 6-1/2f OC - Play
A - #5 Kill Shot (5/2) - Seems primed here, two good long workouts, but this is his first out in 2014. The presence of Smith doesn't hurt. Looking for a big effort.
B - #6 True Ten (4-1) - like the worktab, gets some class relief from last SA race in Apr
C - #1 Night Badger (8-1) - has improving speed figures, but will need another improvement to gain the top spot here, exotics
D - #8 Justification (10-1) - off pace style may hurt, but may end up in the exotics
E - #3 Eddie's First (3-1) - exotic use
Multi-Race Horses: 5,6
Suggest Plays:
$3 = 5 / 6,1 = $6
$1 = 5 / 6,1,8,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 5 = $1
Race 8 - 1 mile Autumn Miss G3 TURF - Action
A - #8 Zindaya (6-1) - is the speed of the race, would like to see her wire here
B - #6 Diversy Harbor (9/2) - class drops from G1, running style is my only concern, excellent chance
C - #7 Alexis Tangier (7/2) - like the style with figures to sit just off the pace an she has run well at Sa, is stretching out here
D - #5 Lexie Lou (5/2) - is a deserving favorite if she can regain/transfer the form that saw her dominate at Woodbine in the summer, trying to beat here *I'll always have a rooting interest her, this was the name of my first retriever
E - #4 Famous Alice (12-1) - exotic value
Multi-Race Horses: 8,6,7,5
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 8,7,6 / 8,7,6 = $6
$1 - 8,6,5 / 8,6,5 = $6
$1 - 6,7,5 / 6,7,5 = $6
Good Luck!
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide - Now Available!
Click Here to Buy the Breeders' Cup Online or by Phone
Did you know...
The post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead.
Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers?
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Our Stat Guides provide detailed stats for all the major Breeders' Cup over the last 21 years for:
In our analysis we list stats that show a positive Return on Investment (ROI) and the ones that you need know to make informed decisions on racing's biggest days. We break down stats on horses that ran above average in their previous prep races and how they finished in the Top 4 in each of the Breeders' Cup races. We also help you identify key horses for your exotics by showing you horses that fit a certain criteria that have high percentage finishes in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.
Our Breeders' Cup Guide includes the following races:
Did you know...
The post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead.
Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers?
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Our Stat Guides provide detailed stats for all the major Breeders' Cup over the last 21 years for:
- Post Position
- Winners by Running Style
- Par Time Comparison Analysis
- Post Time Favorite Stats
- Superfecta Finishers by Last Prep Track
- Average, Low and High Payouts Stats
- Average Running Times
- Past Winners List that includes Fractional Times
- Our Analysis of the Stats
- Positive ROI Stats
- Jockey and Trainer Stats
- Course Stats for Santa Anita's new Dirt Surface
- Our Par Ratings
In our analysis we list stats that show a positive Return on Investment (ROI) and the ones that you need know to make informed decisions on racing's biggest days. We break down stats on horses that ran above average in their previous prep races and how they finished in the Top 4 in each of the Breeders' Cup races. We also help you identify key horses for your exotics by showing you horses that fit a certain criteria that have high percentage finishes in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.
Our Breeders' Cup Guide includes the following races:
Breeders' Cup ClassicClick Here to Buy the Breeders' Cup Online or by Phone
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Breeders' Cup Turf Mile
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Breeders' Cup Turf
Saturday, October 4, 2014
10/4 Belmont Park - Champagne Stakes Day
Champagne Stakes Stats Guide - Free!
Our Champagne Stakes Stats Guide is available for Free on our website. The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can download the guide. Again, it's Free - Enjoy!
Guide Download Link:
Champagne Stakes Stats Guide
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the past 21 years, 15 winners (71%) of the Champagne Stakes finished 1st in their previous start.
Updated 1:40pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 4 - 1-5/8 miles Temperence Hill Stakes - Action
A - #5 Ever Rider (2-1) - like the post to tip the scale on the inside foe that beat him last out.
B - #1 Cary Street (5/2) - won the Greenwood Cup last out against #5 Ever Rider, not crazy that he is drawn inside
C - #2 Awesome Vision (7/2) - is really stretching out in distance, I think he is interesting, but it should be noted that he has never finished in the exacta in 4 starts at Belmont
D - #3 Slim Shadey (10-1) - has mainly run on turf in his career, but I think he could hit the board here for an exotics boost.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,1 / 5,1 = $4
$1 - 5,1 / 5,1,2,3 = $6
Race 6 - 1 mile Frizette Stakes G1 - Action+
A - #4 Feathered (7/2) - ran a decent race on a slow Saratoga track last out. The recent work suggest she's ready, but she may need to stalk the pace in this bunch. No doubt she'll take money with the Pletcher/Castellano combo.
B - #1 Cavorting (5/2) - nice recent workouts and is on the improve. I expect a big effort today.
C - #3 Ring Knocker (15-1) - I like the way she has improved in her two starts. Nice exotics boost.
D - #6 Condo Commando (2-1) - note that the big figure last out was earned while she race on a easy lead, those horses rarely repeat. Will let her beat me in the win category, exotics use.
E - #7 By The Moon (8-1) - I wouldn't leave this one out of my Superfecta, exotics boost.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $4
$1 - 4,1 / 4,1,3,6,7 = $8
Race 8 - 1 mile Champagne Stakes G1 - Action+
A - #3 I Spent It (6-1) - like the value on a horse that has run well in past and has a win over this course. I like his running style considering the speed in the race. Good value.
B - #1 El Kabeir (5/2) - has post two solid workouts back to back. Nice speed figure last out, but it was early will racing with an easy lead.
C - #2 Upstart (7/2) - nice speed figure last out while racing on a slow Saratoga surface, may get a good stalking trip considered the speed in here.
D - #6 Daredevil (2-1) - Pletcher/Castellano horse figures to take money, esp. with the recent workouts. Still he caught and easy lead last out and only ran a figure that is not going to compete with these. Will need some improvement and will be challenged up front.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,1,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,1,2 / 3,1,2,6 = $9
$1 - 3,1 / 3,1,2 = $4
Race 9 - 1-1/8 miles Hill Prince Stakes G3 - Action
A - #1 Ring Weekend (4-1) - decent price on a horse that closed extremely well in his 2014 turf debut last out.
B - #5 Tourist (3-1) - drops from G1 company and cuts back in distance. Is 4 for 3 on the turf and 4 for 4 in the exacta. Excellent win chance.
C - #6 Sheldon (15-1) - another G1 dropper. Finished 3 lengths behind #5 Tourist last out. Exotics.
D - #9 Mr Speaker (5/2) - will likely go off as the favorite, but he needs to prove his turf form is as good as his dirt
E - #4 Smooth Daddy (12-1) - ran a good race when finished 2-3/4 lengths behine #1 Ring Weekend last out. Maybe a cut below the best in here, but is a good exotics horse.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,5,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5 = $2
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5,6,9,4 = $8
Our Champagne Stakes Stats Guide is available for Free on our website. The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can download the guide. Again, it's Free - Enjoy!
Guide Download Link:
Champagne Stakes Stats Guide
Example Stat from the Guide:
In the past 21 years, 15 winners (71%) of the Champagne Stakes finished 1st in their previous start.
Updated 1:40pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 4 - 1-5/8 miles Temperence Hill Stakes - Action
A - #5 Ever Rider (2-1) - like the post to tip the scale on the inside foe that beat him last out.
B - #1 Cary Street (5/2) - won the Greenwood Cup last out against #5 Ever Rider, not crazy that he is drawn inside
C - #2 Awesome Vision (7/2) - is really stretching out in distance, I think he is interesting, but it should be noted that he has never finished in the exacta in 4 starts at Belmont
D - #3 Slim Shadey (10-1) - has mainly run on turf in his career, but I think he could hit the board here for an exotics boost.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,1,2
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,1 / 5,1 = $4
$1 - 5,1 / 5,1,2,3 = $6
Race 6 - 1 mile Frizette Stakes G1 - Action+
A - #4 Feathered (7/2) - ran a decent race on a slow Saratoga track last out. The recent work suggest she's ready, but she may need to stalk the pace in this bunch. No doubt she'll take money with the Pletcher/Castellano combo.
B - #1 Cavorting (5/2) - nice recent workouts and is on the improve. I expect a big effort today.
C - #3 Ring Knocker (15-1) - I like the way she has improved in her two starts. Nice exotics boost.
D - #6 Condo Commando (2-1) - note that the big figure last out was earned while she race on a easy lead, those horses rarely repeat. Will let her beat me in the win category, exotics use.
E - #7 By The Moon (8-1) - I wouldn't leave this one out of my Superfecta, exotics boost.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $4
$1 - 4,1 / 4,1,3,6,7 = $8
Race 8 - 1 mile Champagne Stakes G1 - Action+
A - #3 I Spent It (6-1) - like the value on a horse that has run well in past and has a win over this course. I like his running style considering the speed in the race. Good value.
B - #1 El Kabeir (5/2) - has post two solid workouts back to back. Nice speed figure last out, but it was early will racing with an easy lead.
C - #2 Upstart (7/2) - nice speed figure last out while racing on a slow Saratoga surface, may get a good stalking trip considered the speed in here.
D - #6 Daredevil (2-1) - Pletcher/Castellano horse figures to take money, esp. with the recent workouts. Still he caught and easy lead last out and only ran a figure that is not going to compete with these. Will need some improvement and will be challenged up front.
Multi-Race Horses: 3,1,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 3,1,2 / 3,1,2,6 = $9
$1 - 3,1 / 3,1,2 = $4
Race 9 - 1-1/8 miles Hill Prince Stakes G3 - Action
A - #1 Ring Weekend (4-1) - decent price on a horse that closed extremely well in his 2014 turf debut last out.
B - #5 Tourist (3-1) - drops from G1 company and cuts back in distance. Is 4 for 3 on the turf and 4 for 4 in the exacta. Excellent win chance.
C - #6 Sheldon (15-1) - another G1 dropper. Finished 3 lengths behind #5 Tourist last out. Exotics.
D - #9 Mr Speaker (5/2) - will likely go off as the favorite, but he needs to prove his turf form is as good as his dirt
E - #4 Smooth Daddy (12-1) - ran a good race when finished 2-3/4 lengths behine #1 Ring Weekend last out. Maybe a cut below the best in here, but is a good exotics horse.
Multi-Race Horses: 1,5,6
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5 = $2
$1 - 1,5 / 1,5,6,9,4 = $8
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Belmont Park Course Stats Guide - Now Available!
Did You Know-
Out of a sample of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
Ever wonder if the inside post positions have an advantage in a Belmont Park 1 mile dirt race? Or, is post position #1 really a bad post in a 6f dirt race? How about which jockeys ride turf races better? The answers to these questions and much more are detailed in our guide.
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
This Guide includes:
Course Stats for each surface by distance and post position
Post Time Favorite Stats
Shippers Stats
Jockeys Stats
Trainers Stats (with first time starters stats at Belmont)
Average Payouts
Handicapping Tips and Angles
Analysis of the Stats
This 27 page guide includes Course Stats for Belmont Park from sample of 767 races on both Dirt and Turf.
Our course stat guides help you to determine the stats that seem most useful to a specific race and then help you include or exclude horses while applying your own handicapping skills. Guide is in .pdf format.
How to Order
The Belmont Park Course Stats Guide may be purchased for $20.
The link below will take you to the Big Day Stats website where you can purchase any of our guides either securely online or by phone. We accept all major credit cards and Paypal.
Purchase Link:
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
Available October 13th! - 2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Out of a sample of 135 races run up to 6 furlongs on the dirt, 81 (60%) have been won by horses that raced either on the lead or within 1.5 lengths of the lead.
Ever wonder if the inside post positions have an advantage in a Belmont Park 1 mile dirt race? Or, is post position #1 really a bad post in a 6f dirt race? How about which jockeys ride turf races better? The answers to these questions and much more are detailed in our guide.
Purchase our Belmont Park Course Stats Guide
This Guide includes:
Course Stats for each surface by distance and post position
Post Time Favorite Stats
Shippers Stats
Jockeys Stats
Trainers Stats (with first time starters stats at Belmont)
Average Payouts
Handicapping Tips and Angles
Analysis of the Stats
This 27 page guide includes Course Stats for Belmont Park from sample of 767 races on both Dirt and Turf.
Our course stat guides help you to determine the stats that seem most useful to a specific race and then help you include or exclude horses while applying your own handicapping skills. Guide is in .pdf format.
How to Order
The Belmont Park Course Stats Guide may be purchased for $20.
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Available October 13th! - 2014 Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
This guide will contain detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide will include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!
Saturday, August 30, 2014
8/30 Saratoga - Woodward Day Stakes Races
Belmont Course Stats Guide
Coming next week a Belmont Course Stats Guide will be available from Big Day Stats. This guide will be a sample of 773 races on both dirt and turf from Belmont Park. The guide will contain statistics on Post Positions, Jockeys, Trainers, Average Payouts and Par Times. All broken down by distance, surface and track condition. To sign up to be notified when it is released go to BigDayStats.com and sign up for Future Stat Guide Updates at the bottom of the page.
Updated 1:00pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1-1/16mi Bernard Baruch H. G2 TURF - Play
A - #4 Wise Dan (3/5) - making his first start since his colic surgery, he's the most likely and even if he is 80% he can handle these. With that said, I also wouldn't blame anyone for taking a stand against him. You never know how horses will come back after a layoff.
B - #1 Bio Pro (5-1) - looks to be the main danger to Wise Dan, he ran a solid race last time out in the Lure Stakes and I always have respect for Bill Mott.
C - #8 Five Iron (8-1) - figures to be on the pace, not sure how far he'll fade in the stretch, exotics
D - #1a Boisterous (5-1) - doesn't seem like this will be his best distance, esp. versus these, but could still grab a piece of the exotics (5-1)
E - #2 Optimizer (30-1) - always in the exacta at this distance on the turf and 3 for 4 on the turf at Saratoga. He's got some class and could really boost the exotics if he can find some of his 2013 form. Exotics.
Note: The 1 and 1a are a coupled entry, however I separated them in my selections in case of a scratch.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $6
$2 - 4 / 1,8,2 = $6 - HIT $69.50
Race 8 - 6f Prioress G2 - Action+
A - #6 Miss Behaviour (5/2) - should sit a good trip considering her style and post position. 3 for 3 at this distance.
B - #5 Sweet Whiskey (2-1) - ran second two back to Sweet Reason in the G1 Acorn, her speed figures and class make her the favorite, but she is vulnerable.
C - #1 Thirteen Arrows (8-1) - interesting to see Jones ship this one in and the recent workout suggest she's fit. I expect Rosie will try to be up front breaking from the #1 post. But, she'll need a big step forward to tackle the top two. Exotics.
D - #7 Tea Time (12-1) - is 2 for 3 at this distance with some recent non graded stakes wins, don't see her winning, but she would definitely boost the exotics.
E - #3 Southern Honey (10-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,5,1
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 7f Forego G1 - Play
A - #8 Clearly Now (7/5) - with his recent form, he's the most likely winner. I like the outside post for his stalking style and there should enough pace for him to close.
B - #6 Palace (3-1) - the other obvious contender and at 3-1 he may offer the best value in the win pool. He should stalk the pace and will try to get the jump on Clearly Now turning for home.
C - #10 Confrontation (10-1) - has been improving as he moved up thru the ranks, he figures to be close to the pace and is 3 for 3 at Sar. Exotics value, with a mild upset chance.
D - #9 Weekend Holiday (10-1) - speed horse is 3 for 4 at Sar, should be in the exotics mix.
E - #2 Big Business (15-1) - is 3 for 3 at this distance, speed figures suggest he could be in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,6 / 8,6 / 10,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,6 / 10,9,2 / 8,6 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Woodward Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Itsmyluckyday (5/2) - I expect to see Lopez send him from the gate to establish a good position, looking for him to turn the tables are Moreno
B - #4 Moreno (2-1) - Unless Itsmyluckyday presses him he may find himself all alone on the lead, which makes him dangerous - as he has proven. Still with Itsmyluckyday drawing the rail, it should make for an interesting race.
C - #5 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - this horse loves to run in the exotics and if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early it will help his style. Exotics use.
D - #6 Zivo (5-1) - has been improving, but is a stone closer and his only hope is if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early.
E - #8 Last Gunfighter (15-1) - will be closing late and would be a nice boost to the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,4 / 2,4 / 5,6,8 = $12 - HIT $184.48
$1 - 2,4 / 5,6,8 / 2,4 = $6
Coming next week a Belmont Course Stats Guide will be available from Big Day Stats. This guide will be a sample of 773 races on both dirt and turf from Belmont Park. The guide will contain statistics on Post Positions, Jockeys, Trainers, Average Payouts and Par Times. All broken down by distance, surface and track condition. To sign up to be notified when it is released go to BigDayStats.com and sign up for Future Stat Guide Updates at the bottom of the page.
Updated 1:00pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1-1/16mi Bernard Baruch H. G2 TURF - Play
A - #4 Wise Dan (3/5) - making his first start since his colic surgery, he's the most likely and even if he is 80% he can handle these. With that said, I also wouldn't blame anyone for taking a stand against him. You never know how horses will come back after a layoff.
B - #1 Bio Pro (5-1) - looks to be the main danger to Wise Dan, he ran a solid race last time out in the Lure Stakes and I always have respect for Bill Mott.
C - #8 Five Iron (8-1) - figures to be on the pace, not sure how far he'll fade in the stretch, exotics
D - #1a Boisterous (5-1) - doesn't seem like this will be his best distance, esp. versus these, but could still grab a piece of the exotics (5-1)
E - #2 Optimizer (30-1) - always in the exacta at this distance on the turf and 3 for 4 on the turf at Saratoga. He's got some class and could really boost the exotics if he can find some of his 2013 form. Exotics.
Note: The 1 and 1a are a coupled entry, however I separated them in my selections in case of a scratch.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $6
$2 - 4 / 1,8,2 = $6 - HIT $69.50
Race 8 - 6f Prioress G2 - Action+
A - #6 Miss Behaviour (5/2) - should sit a good trip considering her style and post position. 3 for 3 at this distance.
B - #5 Sweet Whiskey (2-1) - ran second two back to Sweet Reason in the G1 Acorn, her speed figures and class make her the favorite, but she is vulnerable.
C - #1 Thirteen Arrows (8-1) - interesting to see Jones ship this one in and the recent workout suggest she's fit. I expect Rosie will try to be up front breaking from the #1 post. But, she'll need a big step forward to tackle the top two. Exotics.
D - #7 Tea Time (12-1) - is 2 for 3 at this distance with some recent non graded stakes wins, don't see her winning, but she would definitely boost the exotics.
E - #3 Southern Honey (10-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,5,1
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 7f Forego G1 - Play
A - #8 Clearly Now (7/5) - with his recent form, he's the most likely winner. I like the outside post for his stalking style and there should enough pace for him to close.
B - #6 Palace (3-1) - the other obvious contender and at 3-1 he may offer the best value in the win pool. He should stalk the pace and will try to get the jump on Clearly Now turning for home.
C - #10 Confrontation (10-1) - has been improving as he moved up thru the ranks, he figures to be close to the pace and is 3 for 3 at Sar. Exotics value, with a mild upset chance.
D - #9 Weekend Holiday (10-1) - speed horse is 3 for 4 at Sar, should be in the exotics mix.
E - #2 Big Business (15-1) - is 3 for 3 at this distance, speed figures suggest he could be in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,6 / 8,6 / 10,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,6 / 10,9,2 / 8,6 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Woodward Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Itsmyluckyday (5/2) - I expect to see Lopez send him from the gate to establish a good position, looking for him to turn the tables are Moreno
B - #4 Moreno (2-1) - Unless Itsmyluckyday presses him he may find himself all alone on the lead, which makes him dangerous - as he has proven. Still with Itsmyluckyday drawing the rail, it should make for an interesting race.
C - #5 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - this horse loves to run in the exotics and if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early it will help his style. Exotics use.
D - #6 Zivo (5-1) - has been improving, but is a stone closer and his only hope is if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early.
E - #8 Last Gunfighter (15-1) - will be closing late and would be a nice boost to the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,4 / 2,4 / 5,6,8 = $12 - HIT $184.48
$1 - 2,4 / 5,6,8 / 2,4 = $6
Sunday, August 24, 2014
8/24 Del Mar - Pacific Classic Day Stakes Races
Updated 3:40pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1 mile Del Mar Mile Handicap G2 TURF - Prime
A - #1 Obviously (7/5) - by far the most accomplished horse in the field, could easily find himself alone on the lead, which is how he as won 8 out of 11 starts at this distance on the turf.
B - #2 Tom's Tribute (2-1) - should sit a stalking trip, but I'm not sure he'll get the pace setup he'll need. Still he is a G1 winner and looks like the only possibility to upset Obviously.
C - #4 Handsome Mike (15-1) - don't see him winning this, but definite exotics use
D - #8 He Be Fire N Ice (10-1) - has run well on the turf before, but the pace setup may not help his off the pace style. Exotics.
E - #6 Rock Me Baby (6-1) - bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1 / 2 / 4,8 = $6
$1 - 1 / 2 / 4,8,6 = $3
$1 - 1 / 4,8,6 / 2 = $3
Race 9 - 7f Pat O'Brien Stakes G2 - Action+
A - #5 Goldencents (5/2) - didn't get off to the best start last out, but is always game and 7f to 1 mile is his best distance, though I do think he prefers the dirt a little better that artificial.
B - #2 Fed Biz (2-1) - can be a monster when he shows up and he's won 3 out of 4 synthetic starts all will 100+ Beyer speed figures.
C - #3 Silentio (8-1) - switches from turf to synthetic, if he takes to the surface he should be in the mix, esp. in the exotics, probably the best value in the race
D - #7 Big Macher (3-1) - should be up close and got the best of Goldencents last out, though the latter did have trouble. Exotics.
E - #6 Color of Courage (15-1) - an exotics booster that has 4 wins and some good beyers on synthetic.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2 = $4 - HIT $13.00
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2,3,7,6 = $8 - HIT $6.50
Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles Pacific Classic G1 - Play
A - #5 Game On Dude (3-1) - with his proven ability over synthetic and at this distance I think it is crazy not to take 3-1 on him. Certainly, Shared Belief poses a big threat and Game On Dude hasn't run as well this year, but when he decides to show up 3-1 is a lot of value on this horse.
B - #11 Shared Belief (5/2) - he's 4 for 4 on synthetic, but this talented 3 year old is really stepping into the deep end of the pool for the first time. Definite win contender.
C - #9 Clubhouse Ride (8-1) - seems to hang around a lot in the exotics, but Del Mar doesn't seem to be his preferred surface, still his value could help out a trifecta or superfecta
D - #7 Majestic Harbor (9/2) - got the best of Clubhouse Ride, Imperative and Game On Dude last out. He doesn't have much synthetic form to look at, but his most recent workout over the surfaces looks good.
E - #3 Imperative (20-1) - with the right trip he could really boost the exotics. Exotic value.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,11
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,11 / 5,11 / 9,7,3 = $6
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 5,11 = $3
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 9,7,3 = $12
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1 mile Del Mar Mile Handicap G2 TURF - Prime
A - #1 Obviously (7/5) - by far the most accomplished horse in the field, could easily find himself alone on the lead, which is how he as won 8 out of 11 starts at this distance on the turf.
B - #2 Tom's Tribute (2-1) - should sit a stalking trip, but I'm not sure he'll get the pace setup he'll need. Still he is a G1 winner and looks like the only possibility to upset Obviously.
C - #4 Handsome Mike (15-1) - don't see him winning this, but definite exotics use
D - #8 He Be Fire N Ice (10-1) - has run well on the turf before, but the pace setup may not help his off the pace style. Exotics.
E - #6 Rock Me Baby (6-1) - bottom end exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 1 / 2 / 4,8 = $6
$1 - 1 / 2 / 4,8,6 = $3
$1 - 1 / 4,8,6 / 2 = $3
Race 9 - 7f Pat O'Brien Stakes G2 - Action+
A - #5 Goldencents (5/2) - didn't get off to the best start last out, but is always game and 7f to 1 mile is his best distance, though I do think he prefers the dirt a little better that artificial.
B - #2 Fed Biz (2-1) - can be a monster when he shows up and he's won 3 out of 4 synthetic starts all will 100+ Beyer speed figures.
C - #3 Silentio (8-1) - switches from turf to synthetic, if he takes to the surface he should be in the mix, esp. in the exotics, probably the best value in the race
D - #7 Big Macher (3-1) - should be up close and got the best of Goldencents last out, though the latter did have trouble. Exotics.
E - #6 Color of Courage (15-1) - an exotics booster that has 4 wins and some good beyers on synthetic.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,2,3
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,2 / 5,2 = $4 - HIT $13.00
$1 - 5,2 / 5,2,3,7,6 = $8 - HIT $6.50
Race 10 - 1-1/4 miles Pacific Classic G1 - Play
A - #5 Game On Dude (3-1) - with his proven ability over synthetic and at this distance I think it is crazy not to take 3-1 on him. Certainly, Shared Belief poses a big threat and Game On Dude hasn't run as well this year, but when he decides to show up 3-1 is a lot of value on this horse.
B - #11 Shared Belief (5/2) - he's 4 for 4 on synthetic, but this talented 3 year old is really stepping into the deep end of the pool for the first time. Definite win contender.
C - #9 Clubhouse Ride (8-1) - seems to hang around a lot in the exotics, but Del Mar doesn't seem to be his preferred surface, still his value could help out a trifecta or superfecta
D - #7 Majestic Harbor (9/2) - got the best of Clubhouse Ride, Imperative and Game On Dude last out. He doesn't have much synthetic form to look at, but his most recent workout over the surfaces looks good.
E - #3 Imperative (20-1) - with the right trip he could really boost the exotics. Exotic value.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,11
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 5,11 / 5,11 / 9,7,3 = $6
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 5,11 = $3
$1 - 5,11 / 9,7,3 / 9,7,3 = $12
Saturday, August 23, 2014
8/23 Saratoga - Travers Day Stakes Races
Updated 10:12 am EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Ballston Spa G2 TURF - Action+
A - #4 Strathnaver (6-1) - always closes well and had a near miss in the G1 Just a Game against some good company.
B - #7 Filimbi (2-1) - with the triple digit Beyer she'll be over bet and she catches a classy group here, beatable favorite
C - #2 Centre Court (5-1) - likes this distance and is a G1 winner, some pace will help and I'm not sure she is going to get it in this race.
D - #3 Abaco (4-1) - plenty of class with good exacta and trifecta finishes in graded company, still she rarely puts it together for a win, strictly exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,7 / 4,7 / 2,3 = $8
$1 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 4,7 = $4
$0.50 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 2,3 = $2
Race 10 - 7f King's Bishop G1 - Play
A - #2 Wildcat Red (4-1) - I really like him in this spot, during the run up to the Ky Derby he proved he is a game horse. Looking for him to press the pace or sit just behind the leaders.
B - #8 Coup de Grace (2-1) - has post some really good improving speed figures and there should be plenty of pace to run into. Seems to be working well and the outside post gives him a clear path. He'll be the one they'll be trying to hold off late.
C - #4 Noble Cornerstone (15-1) - stalking style may do him well here and the price would be a great exotics boost.
D - #7 The Big Beast (5/2) - triple digit Beyer last out was earned while racing on a loose lead, not looking for him to repeat that effort. Exotics use.
E - #6 Fast Anna (6-1) - would have tossed this one completely, but the workouts and Velazquez intrigue me enough to give him an exotics shot.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,8 / 2,8 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 4,7,6 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Ballerina G1 - Play
A - #4 My Miss Aurelia (3-1) - a resurgence of her 2012 form would make her tough to beat. No doubt the loves this track and with her tactical speed I think the distance hits her just right. She's won twice at 6-1/2 furlongs.
B - #5 Willet (6-1) - always in the exacta at Saratoga. He should be able to sit just off the pace and there should be plenty of pace for her to run into.
C - #2 Better Lucky (4-1) - got the best of Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia last out, but not by much. I think MMA can turn the tables on her second off the layoff.
D - #6 La Verdad (7/2) - lots of speed and is 10 of 12 lifetime in the exacta, but that has come against lesser competition. Plenty of early speed, the question is how far will she fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Hot Stones (6-1) - should get a good trip and her speed figures put her in the mix. Pace will help. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,5,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 2,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 4,5 = $3
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 2,6,8 = $6
Race 12 - 1-1/4 mile Travers Stakes G1- Play
A - #2 Bayern (2-1) - Cross out his Preakness effort, he was in all kinds of trouble that day and was taken completely out of his game. Anytime Baffert ships I always take notice. His 106 par rating in the Haskell sticks out amongst this bunch. He'll have to prove himself going the extra furlong, but if he can shake loose on the lead he'll be dangerous. 90% of the Travers winners finished 1st or 2nd in their previous start. 79% ran in a Triple Crown race. Definite win contender from lots of angles.
B - #7 Wicked Strong (7/2) - Changed up his running style last out when he pressed the pace and then took over the lead in the Jim Dandy. Has a lot going for him statistical wise and I like the outside draw. I give him a slight edge over Tonalist to upset Bayern.
C - #6 Tonalist (3-1) - Ran a great race in the Belmont, but couldn't get to Wicked Strong in the Jim Dandy. However, the pace was slow early on in that race. He'll need someone to challenge Bayern up front, but at least he's already proven the added distance won't be an issue. One of just 3 horses in this field that ran above the average running time (par) in a major 3 year old race. Definite win contender.
D - #3 Charge Now (15-1) - Has not raced in any major 3 year old races thus far this year, but he is improving and I have tremendous respect for how Bill Mott places his horses. Looks to be sitting on a good race. Exotics boost.
E - #8 Kid Cruz (12-1) - Seems a cut below the best in here based on his major 3 year old races this year. However, it should be noted that he won the 150K Easy Goer by 3 lengths and the Grade 3 Dwyer by almost a length. Both stakes were at Belmont and Ulanbator was in the Dwyer. Doesn't look like a win contender without a big step forward, but he could definitely plod along into the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,7,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,7 / 2,7,6 = $8
$1 - 2,7 / 3,8 = $4
Good Luck!
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Ballston Spa G2 TURF - Action+
A - #4 Strathnaver (6-1) - always closes well and had a near miss in the G1 Just a Game against some good company.
B - #7 Filimbi (2-1) - with the triple digit Beyer she'll be over bet and she catches a classy group here, beatable favorite
C - #2 Centre Court (5-1) - likes this distance and is a G1 winner, some pace will help and I'm not sure she is going to get it in this race.
D - #3 Abaco (4-1) - plenty of class with good exacta and trifecta finishes in graded company, still she rarely puts it together for a win, strictly exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,7 / 4,7 / 2,3 = $8
$1 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 4,7 = $4
$0.50 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 2,3 = $2
Race 10 - 7f King's Bishop G1 - Play
A - #2 Wildcat Red (4-1) - I really like him in this spot, during the run up to the Ky Derby he proved he is a game horse. Looking for him to press the pace or sit just behind the leaders.
B - #8 Coup de Grace (2-1) - has post some really good improving speed figures and there should be plenty of pace to run into. Seems to be working well and the outside post gives him a clear path. He'll be the one they'll be trying to hold off late.
C - #4 Noble Cornerstone (15-1) - stalking style may do him well here and the price would be a great exotics boost.
D - #7 The Big Beast (5/2) - triple digit Beyer last out was earned while racing on a loose lead, not looking for him to repeat that effort. Exotics use.
E - #6 Fast Anna (6-1) - would have tossed this one completely, but the workouts and Velazquez intrigue me enough to give him an exotics shot.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,8 / 2,8 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 4,7,6 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Ballerina G1 - Play
A - #4 My Miss Aurelia (3-1) - a resurgence of her 2012 form would make her tough to beat. No doubt the loves this track and with her tactical speed I think the distance hits her just right. She's won twice at 6-1/2 furlongs.
B - #5 Willet (6-1) - always in the exacta at Saratoga. He should be able to sit just off the pace and there should be plenty of pace for her to run into.
C - #2 Better Lucky (4-1) - got the best of Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia last out, but not by much. I think MMA can turn the tables on her second off the layoff.
D - #6 La Verdad (7/2) - lots of speed and is 10 of 12 lifetime in the exacta, but that has come against lesser competition. Plenty of early speed, the question is how far will she fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Hot Stones (6-1) - should get a good trip and her speed figures put her in the mix. Pace will help. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,5,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 2,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 4,5 = $3
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 2,6,8 = $6
Race 12 - 1-1/4 mile Travers Stakes G1- Play
A - #2 Bayern (2-1) - Cross out his Preakness effort, he was in all kinds of trouble that day and was taken completely out of his game. Anytime Baffert ships I always take notice. His 106 par rating in the Haskell sticks out amongst this bunch. He'll have to prove himself going the extra furlong, but if he can shake loose on the lead he'll be dangerous. 90% of the Travers winners finished 1st or 2nd in their previous start. 79% ran in a Triple Crown race. Definite win contender from lots of angles.
B - #7 Wicked Strong (7/2) - Changed up his running style last out when he pressed the pace and then took over the lead in the Jim Dandy. Has a lot going for him statistical wise and I like the outside draw. I give him a slight edge over Tonalist to upset Bayern.
C - #6 Tonalist (3-1) - Ran a great race in the Belmont, but couldn't get to Wicked Strong in the Jim Dandy. However, the pace was slow early on in that race. He'll need someone to challenge Bayern up front, but at least he's already proven the added distance won't be an issue. One of just 3 horses in this field that ran above the average running time (par) in a major 3 year old race. Definite win contender.
D - #3 Charge Now (15-1) - Has not raced in any major 3 year old races thus far this year, but he is improving and I have tremendous respect for how Bill Mott places his horses. Looks to be sitting on a good race. Exotics boost.
E - #8 Kid Cruz (12-1) - Seems a cut below the best in here based on his major 3 year old races this year. However, it should be noted that he won the 150K Easy Goer by 3 lengths and the Grade 3 Dwyer by almost a length. Both stakes were at Belmont and Ulanbator was in the Dwyer. Doesn't look like a win contender without a big step forward, but he could definitely plod along into the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,7,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,7 / 2,7,6 = $8
$1 - 2,7 / 3,8 = $4
Good Luck!
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