Belmont Course Stats Guide
Coming next week a Belmont Course Stats Guide will be available from Big Day Stats. This guide will be a sample of 773 races on both dirt and turf from Belmont Park. The guide will contain statistics on Post Positions, Jockeys, Trainers, Average Payouts and Par Times. All broken down by distance, surface and track condition. To sign up to be notified when it is released go to BigDayStats.com and sign up for Future Stat Guide Updates at the bottom of the page.
Updated 1:00pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 5 - 1-1/16mi Bernard Baruch H. G2 TURF - Play
A - #4 Wise Dan (3/5) - making his first start since his colic surgery, he's the most likely and even if he is 80% he can handle these. With that said, I also wouldn't blame anyone for taking a stand against him. You never know how horses will come back after a layoff.
B - #1 Bio Pro (5-1) - looks to be the main danger to Wise Dan, he ran a solid race last time out in the Lure Stakes and I always have respect for Bill Mott.
C - #8 Five Iron (8-1) - figures to be on the pace, not sure how far he'll fade in the stretch, exotics
D - #1a Boisterous (5-1) - doesn't seem like this will be his best distance, esp. versus these, but could still grab a piece of the exotics (5-1)
E - #2 Optimizer (30-1) - always in the exacta at this distance on the turf and 3 for 4 on the turf at Saratoga. He's got some class and could really boost the exotics if he can find some of his 2013 form. Exotics.
Note: The 1 and 1a are a coupled entry, however I separated them in my selections in case of a scratch.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,1
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 4,1 / 4,1 = $6
$2 - 4 / 1,8,2 = $6 - HIT $69.50
Race 8 - 6f Prioress G2 - Action+
A - #6 Miss Behaviour (5/2) - should sit a good trip considering her style and post position. 3 for 3 at this distance.
B - #5 Sweet Whiskey (2-1) - ran second two back to Sweet Reason in the G1 Acorn, her speed figures and class make her the favorite, but she is vulnerable.
C - #1 Thirteen Arrows (8-1) - interesting to see Jones ship this one in and the recent workout suggest she's fit. I expect Rosie will try to be up front breaking from the #1 post. But, she'll need a big step forward to tackle the top two. Exotics.
D - #7 Tea Time (12-1) - is 2 for 3 at this distance with some recent non graded stakes wins, don't see her winning, but she would definitely boost the exotics.
E - #3 Southern Honey (10-1) - Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 6,5,1
Suggest Plays:
Race 10 - 7f Forego G1 - Play
A - #8 Clearly Now (7/5) - with his recent form, he's the most likely winner. I like the outside post for his stalking style and there should enough pace for him to close.
B - #6 Palace (3-1) - the other obvious contender and at 3-1 he may offer the best value in the win pool. He should stalk the pace and will try to get the jump on Clearly Now turning for home.
C - #10 Confrontation (10-1) - has been improving as he moved up thru the ranks, he figures to be close to the pace and is 3 for 3 at Sar. Exotics value, with a mild upset chance.
D - #9 Weekend Holiday (10-1) - speed horse is 3 for 4 at Sar, should be in the exotics mix.
E - #2 Big Business (15-1) - is 3 for 3 at this distance, speed figures suggest he could be in the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 8,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 8,6 / 8,6 / 10,9,2 = $12
$1 - 8,6 / 10,9,2 / 8,6 = $6
Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Woodward Stakes G1 - Play
A - #2 Itsmyluckyday (5/2) - I expect to see Lopez send him from the gate to establish a good position, looking for him to turn the tables are Moreno
B - #4 Moreno (2-1) - Unless Itsmyluckyday presses him he may find himself all alone on the lead, which makes him dangerous - as he has proven. Still with Itsmyluckyday drawing the rail, it should make for an interesting race.
C - #5 Prayer for Relief (12-1) - this horse loves to run in the exotics and if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early it will help his style. Exotics use.
D - #6 Zivo (5-1) - has been improving, but is a stone closer and his only hope is if Moreno and Itsmyluckyday hook up early.
E - #8 Last Gunfighter (15-1) - will be closing late and would be a nice boost to the exotics.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,4
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,4 / 2,4 / 5,6,8 = $12 - HIT $184.48
$1 - 2,4 / 5,6,8 / 2,4 = $6
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