Updated 10:12 am EST.
Race Rating System-
I
always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic
bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is
ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I
would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label
the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Race 9 - 1-1/16 miles Ballston Spa G2 TURF - Action+
A - #4 Strathnaver (6-1) - always closes well and had a near miss in the G1 Just a Game against some good company.
B - #7 Filimbi (2-1) - with the triple digit Beyer she'll be over bet and she catches a classy group here, beatable favorite
C - #2 Centre Court (5-1) - likes this distance and is a G1 winner, some pace will help and I'm not sure she is going to get it in this race.
D - #3 Abaco (4-1)
- plenty of class with good exacta and trifecta finishes in graded
company, still she rarely puts it together for a win, strictly exotics
use.
Multi-Race Horses: 5,4,7
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 4,7 / 4,7 / 2,3 = $8
$1 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 4,7 = $4
$0.50 - 4,7 / 2,3 / 2,3 = $2
Race 10 - 7f King's Bishop G1 - Play
A - #2 Wildcat Red (4-1)
- I really like him in this spot, during the run up to the Ky Derby he
proved he is a game horse. Looking for him to press the pace or sit
just behind the leaders.
B - #8 Coup de Grace (2-1) - has post
some really good improving speed figures and there should be plenty of
pace to run into. Seems to be working well and the outside post gives
him a clear path. He'll be the one they'll be trying to hold off late.
C - #4 Noble Cornerstone (15-1) - stalking style may do him well here and the price would be a great exotics boost.
D - #7 The Big Beast (5/2) - triple digit Beyer last out was earned while racing on a loose lead, not looking for him to repeat that effort. Exotics use.
E - #6 Fast Anna (6-1) - would have tossed this one completely, but the workouts and Velazquez intrigue me enough to give him an exotics shot.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,8
Suggest Plays:
$3 - 2,8 / 2,8 = $6
$1 - 2,8 / 4,7,6 = $6
Race 11 - 7f Ballerina G1 - Play
A - #4 My Miss Aurelia (3-1)
- a resurgence of her 2012 form would make her tough to beat. No doubt
the loves this track and with her tactical speed I think the distance
hits her just right. She's won twice at 6-1/2 furlongs.
B - #5 Willet (6-1)
- always in the exacta at Saratoga. He should be able to sit just off
the pace and there should be plenty of pace for her to run into.
C - #2 Better Lucky (4-1)
- got the best of Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia last out, but not by
much. I think MMA can turn the tables on her second off the layoff.
D - #6 La Verdad (7/2)
- lots of speed and is 10 of 12 lifetime in the exacta, but that has
come against lesser competition. Plenty of early speed, the question is
how far will she fade. Exotics use.
E - #8 Hot Stones (6-1) - should get a good trip and her speed figures put her in the mix. Pace will help. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 4,5,2
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,5 / 4,5 / 2,6,8 = $6
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 4,5 = $3
$0.50 - 4,5 / 2,6,8 / 2,6,8 = $6
Race 12 - 1-1/4 mile Travers Stakes G1- Play
A - #2 Bayern (2-1)
- Cross out his Preakness effort, he was in all kinds of trouble that
day and was taken completely out of his game. Anytime Baffert ships I
always take notice. His 106 par rating in the Haskell sticks out
amongst this bunch. He'll have to prove himself going the extra
furlong, but if he can shake loose on the lead he'll be dangerous. 90%
of the Travers winners finished 1st or 2nd in their previous start. 79%
ran in a Triple Crown race. Definite win contender from lots of
angles.
B - #7 Wicked Strong (7/2) - Changed up his running
style last out when he pressed the pace and then took over the lead in
the Jim Dandy. Has a lot going for him statistical wise and I like the
outside draw. I give him a slight edge over Tonalist to upset Bayern.
C - #6 Tonalist (3-1)
- Ran a great race in the Belmont, but couldn't get to Wicked Strong in
the Jim Dandy. However, the pace was slow early on in that race.
He'll need someone to challenge Bayern up front, but at least he's
already proven the added distance won't be an issue. One of just 3
horses in this field that ran above the average running time (par) in a
major 3 year old race. Definite win contender.
D - #3 Charge Now (15-1)
- Has not raced in any major 3 year old races thus far this year, but
he is improving and I have tremendous respect for how Bill Mott places
his horses. Looks to be sitting on a good race. Exotics boost.
E - #8 Kid Cruz (12-1)
- Seems a cut below the best in here based on his major 3 year old
races this year. However, it should be noted that he won the 150K Easy
Goer by 3 lengths and the Grade 3 Dwyer by almost a length. Both stakes
were at Belmont and Ulanbator was in the Dwyer. Doesn't look like a
win contender without a big step forward, but he could definitely plod
along into the exotics. Exotics use.
Multi-Race Horses: 2,7,6
Suggest Plays:
$2 - 2,7 / 2,7,6 = $8
$1 - 2,7 / 3,8 = $4
Good Luck!
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