Card Totals
Winners - 2 out of 4 - $8 / $12 ($2 win bet) +50% ROI
List Plays - $139.50 / $184.20 +32% ROI
Good day, but was very chalky, needed some bigger prices underneath.
Breeders' Cup Stats Guide
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders'
Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the
Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead. Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average
payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic
top 4 finishers? How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race
Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for
both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our
analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course
stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more! Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.
Let our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide help you handicap the races by showing
you stats, trends and positive ROI plays over the last 20 years of
Breeders' Cup races.
Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide
Updated 3:52pm EST.
Race Rating System-
I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets. In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets. The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner. If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race. See the key below for how I label the races.
Weak - Poor races to invest in. Usually too wide open. Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics. Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.
Multirace Bets:
Daily Double - Races 7,8
$2 - 9,1 / 4,6 = $8 - HIT $9.80
$2 - 9,1,8 / 4,6,2 = $18 - HIT $9.80
Daily Double - Races 8,9
$2 - 4,6 / 10,2 = $4 - HIT $19.80
$2 - 4 / 10,2,7,9 = $8 - HIT $19.80
$2 - 4,6,2 / 10,2 = $12 - HIT $19.80
Pick 3 - Races 7,8,9
$.50 - 9,1 / 4,6 / 10,2,11 = $6 - HIT $11.20
$.50 - 9,1,8 / 4,6,2 / 10,2,9,7,11 = $22.50 - HIT $11.20
Distaff / Classic Double
$1 - 10,7,2 / 13,6,11 = $9
$1 - 10,7,2,9,3,11 / 13,6 = $12
$1 - 10,7,2 / 13,6,11,9 = $12
Race 6 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf G1 - Action
A - #7 War Envoy (9/2) - should run a solid race and was only beaten 1-1/4 lengths last out in a G1 at Lch.
B - #11 Imperia (6-1) - he can really close in the stretch, but will need to work out a trip not to get hung wide at this distance.
C - #5 Hootenanny (3-1) - this will be the first time he has run 2 turns, beaten just 1/2 length in a G1 last out. - Winner
D - #4 Commemorative (8-1) - if he can put it together going around the turns he could be a likely winner and at a good price too!
E - #10 Startup Nation (12-1) - moved up with scratch of Aktabantay
Multi-Race Horses: 7,11,5,4,9
Race Notes: No one absolutely jumps off the page at me, anyone of several horses could win it. Exacta should pay nicely with so many options.
Suggest Plays:
None.
Race 7 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile G1 - Play
A - #9 Tapiture (6-1) - Though just one horse has won the BC Dirt Mile from outside of post #8, I think Tapiture might sit a good trip on the outside, though he could be wide into the first turn. I really like the way Asmussen pulled back after the Ky Derby and Tapiture has steadily moved forward since then. He ran a really good second to Bayern when the latter ran out of his skin in the Pennsylvania Derby. Looking for a big effort - Top selection if things don't go perfect for Goldencents. - Second
B - #1 Goldencents (6/5) - Will take a lot of money at the windows. I don't mind the inside post position for his style and configuration of this 2 turn mile. His par ratings put him on top. No doubt, he loves this distance and the SA course, plus I've heard is 10/24 workout looked good. However, the post time favorite for the BC Dirt Mile has never finished in the Exacta. Plus there is some other speed in this race that he'll have to deal with early. Expecting him to run very well and he is a strong win contender. But, with such strong stats against him and the presence of other speed I may try to beat him in the win category. - Winner
C - #8 Fed Biz (7/2) - Should be forwardly placed, but his best numbers lately have come on an artificial surface. Still, he's 50% at this distance and should be forwardly placed. He ran a very strong second just getting edged by Shared Belief in the 1-1/8 mile Awesome Again. Looking for a big effort - top contender.
D - #3 Vicar's In Trouble (12-1) - 3 year old who has some early speed. This is the shortest distance he has raced this year and I'm expecting him to run well and hang around late for the exotics. Exotics value.
E - #4 Pants On Fire (6-1) - He's 50% at this distance and 6 out of 8 in the money. His last 3 races have been pretty good, but he seems a cut below the big 3 in here. Exotics use. - Third
Multi-Race Horses: 9,1,8
Race Notes: It is very possible that Goldencents could be the most likely winner all weekend. He's drawn well for his style and people are buzzing about the way he looks on the track. Still, the stats in the BC Dirt Mile have been strongly against the post time favorite and Tapiture is a nice horse if things don't go according to plan for Goldencents. Feb Biz's 2nd in the Awesome Again to Shared Belief has to count for something, so I wouldn't leave him out. Also, remember that at Santa Anita a 1 mile dirt race is run around 2 turns, so I prefer horses with proven 2 turn ability.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 9,1,8 / 9,1,8 = $6 - HIT $7.10
$1 - 9,8,1 / 9,1,8,3,4 = $12 - HIT $7.10
Race 8 - 1 Mile - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf G1 - Action+
A - #4 Lady Eli (6-1) - good post for this turf course configuration, have heard great things about the way she has looked on the track while training, closes well, 2 for 2 on the turf - Winner $6.80
B - #6 Sivoliere (12-1) - should really like the distance and has look well on the track in the mornings, good chance
C - #2 Osaila (5-1) - beaten just 1-1/4 lengths in a G1 two back and has run well all year - Third
D - #5 Isabella Sings (12-1) - exotics value
E - #3 Sunset Glow (7/2) - exotics use - Second
Multi-Race Horses: 4,6,2
Race Notes: I feel like the winner is likely amongst the top 3, once you get past them the race seems wide open. Good Exacta race.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 4,6,2 / 4,6,2 = $6
$1 - 4,6 / 2,5,3,9,11 = $10 - HIT $17.50
Race 9 - 1-1/8 Miles - Breeders' Cup Distaff G1 - Play
A - #10 Untapable (5/2) - If she runs her A race she'll be tough to beat. She was dominate this spring, but couldn't beat the boys in the Haskell. The she came back with a nice win the Cotillion at Parx. I've heard great things from the clockers. Again, her best form would make her tough to beat and the post position keeps her outside and in the clear. Top Selection. - Winner $5.20
B - #2 Tiz Midnight (10-1) - Re-rallied last out to run a very nice second to Beholder in the Zenyatta. Seems to be moving forward and a Baffert runner with speed is always dangerous. Win contender.
C - #7 Don't Tell Sophia (5-1) - She gobbled up ground in the stretch to win last out in the Spinster. Pace will help her, but if the course plays to speed it could hurt. She's 2 for 3 at this distance. Looking for a big effort. Win chance, definite exotics use. - Second
D - #9 Ria Antonia (15-1) - The move to run her in the Preakness was a bad move, so draw a line through that race. She won the Juvenile Fillies last year through a DQ. In her last out she seems to have gotten back on track having put in a pace pressing effort that saw her take the lead in the stretch only to be caught by Don't Tell Sophia. Lots of value if she steps forward. Exotics use.
E - #3 Iotapa (6-1) - Has won 2 grade 1 races this year. Had some trouble in her last out when she missed the break and was behind horses before getting bumped in the stretch. Still, she didn't make up a lot of ground after the trouble and Tiz Midnight still got the best of her. Exotics use. - Third
Exotics Use:
#11 Close Hatches (3-1) - Based on her last out and some clocker notes, getting her out of the exotics will definitely boost prices, but if she returns to her form she'll be tough here and will very likely end up in the exotics if not win.
Multi-Race Horses: 10,7,2,9
Race Notes: With Close Hatches running such a poor race last out, I don't want to lean heavily on her and in fact would like to get her out of the exotics. She may rebound to win this race, but after what appears to be a form reversal I want a horse to prove it again, especially a female horse. If Untapable is in top form she'll be hard to deny, espescially with outside post position which will give her clear sailing.
Suggest Plays:
$1 - 10,2,7 / 10,2,7 = $6 - HIT $13.50
$1 - 10,2,7 / 9,3,11 = $9
$.50 - 10,2,7 / 10,2,7 / 10,2,7,9,3,11 = $12 - HIT $37.60
Good Luck! As always, it should be two fantastic days of racing!
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