Saturday, October 25, 2014

10/25 Santa Anita - Races 1,3,6-8

Breeders' Cup Stats Guide - Now Available!
Did you know that the post time favorite has never finished in the exacta in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. In the last 21 years, just 1 horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf while racing on the lead.  Ever wonder which Breeders' Cup race has the highest average payouts? Or, which track has prepped the most Breeders' Cup Classic top 4 finishers?  How about how the post time favorite has finished in each Breeders' Cup Race

Our Breeders' Cup Stats Guide contains detailed stats for both days of Breeders' Cup races. Stats in the guide include our analysis, postive ROI stats, high percentage key horse stats, course stats for Santa Anita's new dirt surface and much more!  Find out more on our website www.bigdaystats.com.


Click Here for more information or to Purchase the Guide

Pre Scratches.

Race Rating System-

I always give you 5 picks in each race to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics. 


Multirace Plays
Pick 3 - Races 6,7,8
$1 - 7,5,4,6 / 5 / 8,6,7,4 = $16
$1 - 7,5,4 / 5,6 / 8,6,4 = $18


Race 1 - 5f sAlw - Play
A - #2 Lindz Winz (2-1) - should sit just behind the speed, hoping she can take over in the stretch
B - #1 Mahalo Princess (7/5) - the obvious horse on speed figures and record, not crazy about jockey
C - #4 Miss American Pie (8-1) - should be forwardly placed and comes out of claiming 8k open company
D - #3 Lust of Life (6-1) - comes from 20K open company, like the stalking style in this race, but doesn't need to be too far back.

Multi-Race Horses: 2,1
Suggest Plays:

$3 - 2,1 / 2,1 = $6
$1 - 2,1 / 2,1,4,3 = $6



Race 3 - 1 mile sAlw - Action+
A - #5 Awe Gee (6-1) - broke md over this course with a big step forward, hoping she can build off that
B - #3 Southern Echo (5-1) - may find herself on the lead, like the recent workout, additions of blinkers and Talamo
C - #2 Midnight Candy (5/2) - recent works look good and she has wins over this course and distance, could easily handle this field if she runs her best
D - #7 Shezapiranha (3-1) - exotics use

Multi-Race Horses:  5,3,2
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 5,3,2 / 5,3,2 = $6
$1 - 5,3 / 5,3,2,7 = $6



Race 6 - 6-1/2f OC Downhill TURF - Action
A - #7 Royal F J (4-1) - the ML odds are good for a horse that has beaten better class horses on this turf course, like the outside post
B - #5 Conquest Two Step (7/2) - takes a drop in class and we know Talamo rides this course well
C - #4 Maxx the Giant (9/2) - should sit just behind the pace, but will need to find a little more to win here
D - #6 Heat Flash (12-1) - exotic value
E - #9 U S Citizen (12-1) - exotic use

Multi-Race Horses:  7,5,4,6
Suggest Plays:




Race 7 - 6-1/2f OC - Play
A - #5 Kill Shot (5/2) - Seems primed here, two good long workouts, but this is his first out in 2014.  The presence of Smith doesn't hurt.  Looking for a big effort.
B - #6 True Ten (4-1) - like the worktab, gets some class relief from last SA race in Apr
C - #1 Night Badger (8-1) - has improving speed figures, but will need another improvement to gain the top spot here, exotics
D - #8 Justification (10-1) - off pace style may hurt, but may end up in the exotics
E - #3 Eddie's First (3-1) - exotic use

Multi-Race Horses:  5,6
Suggest Plays:

$3 = 5 / 6,1 = $6
$1 = 5 / 6,1,8,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 5 = $1



Race 8 - 1 mile Autumn Miss G3 TURF - Action
A - #8 Zindaya (6-1) - is the speed of the race, would like to see her wire here
B - #6 Diversy Harbor (9/2) - class drops from G1, running style is my only concern, excellent chance
C - #7 Alexis Tangier (7/2) - like the style with figures to sit just off the pace an she has run well at Sa, is stretching out here
D - #5 Lexie Lou (5/2) - is a deserving favorite if she can regain/transfer the form that saw her dominate at Woodbine in the summer, trying to beat here  *I'll always have a rooting interest her, this was the name of my first retriever
E - #4 Famous Alice (12-1) - exotic value

Multi-Race Horses:  8,6,7,5
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 8,7,6 / 8,7,6 = $6
$1 - 8,6,5 / 8,6,5 = $6
$1 - 6,7,5 / 6,7,5 = $6


Good Luck!

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